Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

TMDaines said:
The news coming out of Ukraine feels depressing. Feels as if Russia are beginning to slowly grind the Ukrainian defensives in the Donbas down. Not sure the West has the same enthusiasm and collective resolve as it did the immediate months.
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Thats my feeling too; but there seem to be a couple of unknowns here. One is that Russia simply cannot continue at this rate of attrition in order to achieve the relatively small gains they have made. The other is that (and I have no idea if it’s true or not) Ukraine is doing what Russia was too impatient to do- building up motivated, trained forces to counter attack, and for the moment just holding on as much as they can whilst that build up happens. Obviously I hope both those things are true but it’s impossible to prove. I guess in a months time we might be seeing a very different picture.
 
TMDaines said:
The news coming out of Ukraine feels depressing. Feels as if Russia are beginning to slowly grind the Ukrainian defensives in the Donbas down. Not sure the West has the same enthusiasm and collective resolve as it did the immediate months.
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Lot of talk that now Putin has been humiliated there is less interest from some NATO countries.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Lot of talk that now Putin has been humiliated there is less interest from some NATO countries.
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Don't think there is less interest. We just can't send massive financial support and weapons constantly on a day to day basis. I'd say apart from engaging in a direct hot war with Russia in Ukraine the west is doing what it can.
 
Gehrman said:
Don't think there is less interest. We just can't send massive financial support and weapons constantly on a day to day basis. I'd say apart from engaging in a direct hot war with Russia in Ukraine the west is doing what it can.
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I wouldn't be surprised if there actually is less interest in a lot of places right now, and especially the US. Russia is no longer attacking all of Ukraine, there is now 'just' a war of attrition in the east and Russia isn't clearly winning it. Places that see Russia as a competitor (like the US) are probably happy with this situation, as it is very costly for Russia, won't be good for Russian public support for the war, and means the sanctions can stay in place - all without further effort from or cost to NATO and (mostly) without the sort of outrageous situations/events that make the general public of NATO countries force their governments into action. From the perspective of the US government, I imagine that's a pretty good situation.

(Yes, it's a very cynical outlook, I know.)
 
Cheimoon said:
I wouldn't be surprised if there actually is less interest in a lot of places right now, and especially the US. Russia is no longer attacking all of Ukraine, there is now 'just' a war of attrition in the east and Russia isn't clearly winning it. Places that see Russia as a competitor (like the US) are probably happy with this situation, as it is very costly for Russia, won't be good for Russian public support for the war, and means the sanctions can stay in place - all without further effort from or cost to NATO and (mostly) without the sort of outrageous situations/events that make the general public of NATO countries force their governments into action. From the perspective of the US government, I imagine that's a pretty good situation.

(Yes, it's a very cynical outlook, I know.)
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Also, the 40 billion the US just contributed hasn't even begun to factor into all of this. That's more than enough to keep this thing going until the Russians run out of resources.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Lot of talk that now Putin has been humiliated there is less interest from some NATO countries.
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Where is this "lot of talk" ? I think some are conflating the fact that Ukraine isn't leading the daily news cycle with the level of commitment that has already been shown by "the west" to support the Ukrainian military. The money is still flowing and the weapons are still clandestinely making their way into Ukraine across neighboring NATO borders.
 
Raoul said:
Where is this "lot of talk" ? I think some are conflating the fact that Ukraine isn't leading the daily news cycle with the level of commitment that has already been shown by "the west" to support the Ukrainian military. The money is still flowing and the weapons are still clandestinely making their way into Ukraine across neighboring NATO borders.
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Just looking at the current headlines. Telegraph article from today for example: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion...t-crumbling-now-putin-has-humiliated-ukraine/
 
Zelensky’s and Arestovich’s latest assessments on Donbass are pretty grim. Arestovich said that they’re “barely hanging in there” in a YouTube stream and that Russia is trying to finish an encirclement around Lisichansk & Severodonetsk to “create a new Mariupol”. And that Russia an overwhelming superiority in artillery & in the air there.
 
the hea said:
I don't think so since there is so little smoke, Phosphorus makes a lot of smoke when it burns. Russians have some incendiary munitions that doesn't use Phosphorus for the grad mlrs system and that could be what we are seeing here..
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fecking surreal.
 
NicolaSacco said:
Thats my feeling too; but there seem to be a couple of unknowns here. One is that Russia simply cannot continue at this rate of attrition in order to achieve the relatively small gains they have made. The other is that (and I have no idea if it’s true or not) Ukraine is doing what Russia was too impatient to do- building up motivated, trained forces to counter attack, and for the moment just holding on as much as they can whilst that build up happens. Obviously I hope both those things are true but it’s impossible to prove. I guess in a months time we might be seeing a very different picture.
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Patience is always important in war, everyone expects a quick victory one way or the other and it rarely plays out that way. Ukraine needs time for the Western money and resources to arrive to equip and train their new units. Most analysts have been consistent that Russian forces will only "culminate" around August so there's still another few months of fighting before we can expect any significant UKR counterattack.
 
Frosty said:
Russians appear to be advancing a lot more than expected?

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Looks like they’re taking a lot of casualties but are slowly edging forwards yes. Ukraine are waiting on a lot of long range weaponry though, maybe that will change things.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Looks like they’re taking a lot of casualties but are slowly edging forwards yes. Ukraine are waiting on a lot of long range weaponry though, maybe that will change things.
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There's also terrain topography to take into consideration, as this video explains (now including maps with integrated topography).

 
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Carolina Red said:
Russians are gonna be in for a world of hurt against those.
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I don't understand why we waited so long. Do we want Ukraine to win or not? And why are we afraid that "Ukraine could use the systems to carry out offensive attacks inside Russia"??? Russia is destroying Ukraine for over 3 months now, it is only fair if Ukraine fires inside Russia.

From the article:

<<The US-made weapon systems can fire a barrage of rockets hundreds of kilometers — much farther than any of the systems Ukraine already has — which the Ukrainians argue could be a gamechanger in their war against Russia.

Another system Ukraine has asked for is the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS, a lighter wheeled system capable of firing many of the same types of ammunition as MLRS.

Russia has in recent weeks pummeled Ukraine in the east, where Ukraine is outmanned and outgunned, Ukrainian officials have said.

The Biden administration waivered for weeks, however, on whether to send the systems, amid concerns raised within the National Security Council that Ukraine could use the systems to carry out offensive attacks inside Russia, officials said.>>
 
frostbite said:
I don't understand why we waited so long. Do we want Ukraine to win or not? And why are we afraid that "Ukraine could use the systems to carry out offensive attacks inside Russia"??? Russia is destroying Ukraine for over 3 months now, it is only fair if Ukraine fires inside Russia.

From the article:

<<The US-made weapon systems can fire a barrage of rockets hundreds of kilometers — much farther than any of the systems Ukraine already has — which the Ukrainians argue could be a gamechanger in their war against Russia.

Another system Ukraine has asked for is the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS, a lighter wheeled system capable of firing many of the same types of ammunition as MLRS.

Russia has in recent weeks pummeled Ukraine in the east, where Ukraine is outmanned and outgunned, Ukrainian officials have said.

The Biden administration waivered for weeks, however, on whether to send the systems, amid concerns raised within the National Security Council that Ukraine could use the systems to carry out offensive attacks inside Russia, officials said.>>
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I don’t understand the reasoning of the NSC, but, and I know this will sound cynical, I do understand being cautious about sending front line tech to foreign battlefields, considering how well that’s gone for us in recent conflicts. I.e. We’ve exported less than 100 HIMARS systems total in its existence.

Edit - and to add a bit of a tinfoil hat angle… it’s possible that we’ve been training Ukrainian artillerymen how to use these systems and now they’re operational and we’ve created a story to cover that up. But that’s admittedly out there.
 
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Carolina Red said:
I don’t understand the reasoning of the NSC, but, and I know this will sound cynical, I do understand being cautious about sending front line tech to foreign battlefields, considering how well that’s gone for us in recent conflicts. I.e. We’ve exported less than 100 HIMARS systems total in its existence.
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I'm pretty sure they could easily setup a way to deactivate them remotely if needed.
 
Carolina Red said:
I don’t understand the reasoning of the NSC, but, and I know this will sound cynical, I do understand being cautious about sending front line tech to foreign battlefields, considering how well that’s gone for us in recent conflicts. I.e. We’ve exported less than 100 HIMARS systems total in its existence.

Edit - and to add a bit of a tinfoil hat angle… it’s possible that we’ve been training Ukrainian artillerymen how to use these systems and now they’re operational and we’ve created a story to cover that up. But that’s admittedly out there.
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I read the reasoning in the article, and I get what you are saying, but I still do not understand why the West is dithering so much. The war is 3 months old now. The allies (US, UK, EU) have to make a final decision that they are going to help Ukraine win this war, no matter what. We are already involved. We don't have to discuss the same thing over and over, every week. Get over with "decisions" and provide them with everything they need to win, ASAP. Including a long term plan for SAMs, Patriots, F-16, or whatever, in case the war lasts for 12 months or more. If the Russians win, they will still hate us and they will try to hurt us wherever they can. If they lose, the same thing. It makes no difference to them, the Russian Nationalists hate us already, because the Western help is the only reason Ukraine did not fall. The best for everyone is if the Russians lose quickly, and I really believe this is the best for the Russians too.
 
frostbite said:
I don't understand why we waited so long. Do we want Ukraine to win or not? And why are we afraid that "Ukraine could use the systems to carry out offensive attacks inside Russia"??? Russia is destroying Ukraine for over 3 months now, it is only fair if Ukraine fires inside Russia.

From the article:

<<The US-made weapon systems can fire a barrage of rockets hundreds of kilometers — much farther than any of the systems Ukraine already has — which the Ukrainians argue could be a gamechanger in their war against Russia.

Another system Ukraine has asked for is the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS, a lighter wheeled system capable of firing many of the same types of ammunition as MLRS.

Russia has in recent weeks pummeled Ukraine in the east, where Ukraine is outmanned and outgunned, Ukrainian officials have said.

The Biden administration waivered for weeks, however, on whether to send the systems, amid concerns raised within the National Security Council that Ukraine could use the systems to carry out offensive attacks inside Russia, officials said.>>
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Most people likely predicted the war would be over by now and Putin would have backed off. To be fair, they have been held back and its been a stalemate. Ukraine has not lacked military support. They wouldn't be holding off Russia this way if they were
 
sport2793 said:
What would stop a country opening up the unit and rewiring it to prevent remote deactivation?
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I don't know if it's that simple. For instance, they might use satellite to look for an "okay" signal in the software to function else they simple won't and "opening up" would essentially be creating your own from scratch.
 
Carolina Red said:
Russians are gonna be in for a world of hurt against those.
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The M270 MLRS has an operational range of 310 miles (500 km) for precision-guided missiles. If those are deployed from anywhere in the Kyiv Oblast, they can basically strike anywhere in Russian-occupied territories.
 
shamans said:
Most people likely predicted the war would be over by now and Putin would have backed off. To be fair, they have been held back and its been a stalemate. Ukraine has not lacked military support. They wouldn't be holding off Russia this way if they were
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Yes, it is obvious to all that without the Western help Ukraine would lose. Even today, they have a serious disadvantage in firepower, both artillery and air force. Ukraine has not won yet, it has just survived. We have to make sure that it wins. That's the only way this war ends. Otherwise, Putin will just wait for another occasion (a Republican President?) and hit them again.
 
shamans said:
I don't know if it's that simple. For instance, they might use satellite to look for an "okay" signal in the software to function else they simple won't and "opening up" would essentially be creating your own from scratch.
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I don't think such systems utilise remote activation. It's too big risk because the enemy may hack the signal or destroy the satellite.
 
frostbite said:
Yes, it is obvious to all that without the Western help Ukraine would lose. Even today, they have a serious disadvantage in firepower, both artillery and air force. Ukraine has not won yet, it has just survived. We have to make sure that it wins. That's the only way this war ends. Otherwise, Putin will just wait for another occasion (a Republican President?) and hit them again.
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Yes definitely.
Despite the huge assistance Ukraine has been given by many western countries, it is nothing like enough to stop the Russian invasion.
IMHO, it is now time for countries and NATO to ratchet up their equipment support to Ukraine. Especially in light of the most recent attacks in the Donbas region.
I am fearful that the west is taking its eye off Ukraine. And that will become more important as time moves on.
We need significantly better leadership against Putin.
 
frostbite said:
I don't understand why we waited so long. Do we want Ukraine to win or not? And why are we afraid that "Ukraine could use the systems to carry out offensive attacks inside Russia"??? Russia is destroying Ukraine for over 3 months now, it is only fair if Ukraine fires inside Russia.

From the article:

<<The US-made weapon systems can fire a barrage of rockets hundreds of kilometers — much farther than any of the systems Ukraine already has — which the Ukrainians argue could be a gamechanger in their war against Russia.

Another system Ukraine has asked for is the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS, a lighter wheeled system capable of firing many of the same types of ammunition as MLRS.

Russia has in recent weeks pummeled Ukraine in the east, where Ukraine is outmanned and outgunned, Ukrainian officials have said.

The Biden administration waivered for weeks, however, on whether to send the systems, amid concerns raised within the National Security Council that Ukraine could use the systems to carry out offensive attacks inside Russia, officials said.>>
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My guess would be that these weapons are vulnerable to air strikes. Most US weapons of this size and scale are usually operated from ground covered by air superiority and anti missile systems which Ukraine doesn't have.
 
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