Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Pintu said:


What exactly does Biden gain from saying these things publicly?
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Its factually true that Zelenskyy downplayed what was an imminent invasion to avoid evoking panic among Ukrainians.
 
harms said:
Oh, no, he's in charge alright. And no, there are no hidden puppeteers behind him, be it some mythical oligarchs or criminals from St. Petersburg — he had cleared out everyone who had helped him to get there & felt that they could control him ages ago (Berezovsky would be the prime example). Watch the council meeting of Russian Security Council that happened a few days before the invasion, on 21th of February, and watch how he purposely humiliates some of the most influential people in the country to showcase his ultimate authority. It's feels like watching some prison movie.

I do believe that he has the power to stop the war if he wants to. He clearly doesn't though, but even if he did there's obviously a consideration of how the people, who are overstimulated by the ridiculous and ever-present propaganda, are going to react to him finishing the war with "the Nazis" without getting anything of significance back & leading the country into a huge economical crisis. He's backed himself into the corner and it looks like he's going to push though until something breaks — either Ukraine or his own regime. Hopefully the latter.
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I recall the meeting but there were no gangster leaders there! I don’t doubt he’s the top power within government.

Is it known at which point he broke free and how he was able to do it? These gangsters don’t usually play nice, I’d think they’d use threats and violence to keep him controlled. But then if he needs protection he does have the entire state apparatus. Yet his family abroad would be vulnerable.
 
Beans said:
I recall the meeting but there were no gangster leaders there! I don’t doubt he’s the top power within government.

Is it known at which point he broke free and how he was able to do it? These gangsters don’t usually play nice, I’d think they’d use threats and violence to keep him controlled. But then if he needs protection he does have the entire state apparatus. Yet his family abroad would be vulnerable.
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Polonium in their tea is quite a calling card tbf.
 
TMDaines said:
Came to post this astonishing thread myself.
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Bear in mind that’s with most having relatively open internet access and not having those books forced upon them. That’s why China is so scary - it’s this level (probably more) or propaganda but with the majority of the country completely cut off from any outside news.

As an aside I find it so weird the U.K. is always the main baddie - kind of shows how backwards Russia is. We stopped being a major power long ago.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Bear in mind that’s with most having relatively open internet access and not having those books forced upon them. That’s why China is so scary - it’s this level (probably more) or propaganda but with the majority of the country completely cut off from any outside news.

As an aside I find it so weird the U.K. is always the main baddie - kind of shows how backwards Russia is. We stopped being a major power long ago.
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I honestly don't think Putin has forgiven us for trying to sway the outcome of the Civil War.
 
Beans said:
I recall the meeting but there were no gangster leaders there! I don’t doubt he’s the top power within government.

Is it known at which point he broke free and how he was able to do it? These gangsters don’t usually play nice, I’d think they’d use threats and violence to keep him controlled. But then if he needs protection he does have the entire state apparatus. Yet his family abroad would be vulnerable.
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The gangsters in Russia don't have the power that they've had in the 90's. Putin always pushes the argument that it was him who had dragged the country out of the 90's when Russia was divided between the mob & oligarchs and in a way it's true, the only issue is that he wasn't doing it for the country, he simply took everything for himself.

It was a long process obviously but most of it happened in the 00's with siloviki (police, FSB, security service, prison guards etc.) gradually getting more and more power. There's a book in English called "The Vory: Russia's Super Mafia" that depicts that subculture well. At some point more than a half of Russia's prisons were run by the inmates and Vory (literally "thieves" — or "Vory v Zakone" / "thieves in law" — obligatory tag @VorZakone ) were at the top of that rough hierarchy. They're pretty much extinct now and those that are alive are long in hiding.

It's hard to run a shadow criminal organisation in a totalitarian state with well-financed repressive institutions, full control of every branch of political power and little to no concern about following their own laws — those are for the public, siloviki can (and literally do on a systemic basis) torture and even kill people or send people to prison on made up charges (where they are also tortured and/or killed).
 
Raoul said:
Its factually true that Zelenskyy downplayed what was an imminent invasion to avoid evoking panic among Ukrainians.
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I understand the context but I still think it’s not a smart thing to say at this moment. It sounds like Biden is saying it’s Zelenskyy’s fault that Ukraine’s army wasn’t “ready enough” when the invasion started.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Bear in mind that’s with most having relatively open internet access and not having those books forced upon them. That’s why China is so scary - it’s this level (probably more) or propaganda but with the majority of the country completely cut off from any outside news.

As an aside I find it so weird the U.K. is always the main baddie - kind of shows how backwards Russia is. We stopped being a major power long ago.
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It depends on how you define "major power". If you're saying that the USA and China are the only major powers, then fair enough. But otherwise, apart from those two, the combination of soft and hard power and influence wielded by the UK is at least on a par with any other country, and more than the vast majority.

Russia's obsession is probably partly a reflection of this, but also also partly historical, partly a reflection of our geographical nearness (compared to the USA) to "European" Russia, and partly because, compared to many other European countries, the UK can't be as easily pushed - e.g. via energy import dependency, or stirring up political instability - towards Russian ends.
 
GlastonSpur said:
It depends on how you define "major power". If you're saying that the USA and China are the only major powers, then fair enough. But otherwise, apart from those two, the combination of soft and hard power and influence wielded by the UK is at least on a par with any other country, and more than the vast majority.

Russia's obsession is probably partly a reflection of this, but also also partly historical, partly a reflection of our geographical nearness (compared to the USA) to "European" Russia, and partly because, compared to many other European countries, the UK can't be as easily pushed - e.g. via energy import dependency, or stirring up political instability - towards Russian ends.
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Yeah we’re extremely strong given our ties - close to the US, most of the commonwealth and, despite Brexit, we’re kind of still seen as European. I find it strange they chose us and not Germany - a country who are a recent enemy.

Talking of a Germany they have supposedly just blocked Spain sending 40 Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
 
Pintu said:
I understand the context but I still think it’s not a smart thing to say at this moment. It sounds like Biden is saying it’s Zelenskyy’s fault that Ukraine’s army wasn’t “ready enough” when the invasion started.
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Not sure he's referring to just the army, but rather is making a broader (and more accurate) statement that the Ukrainians were caught a bit flat footed during the initial days of the invasion because their leader was busy attempting to downplay everything in the preceding days, despite having been given a lot of intelligence from the US that Putin was preparing a massive invasion. Zelenskyy's actions after the invasion have been very good, but not just before it.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Bear in mind that’s with most having relatively open internet access and not having those books forced upon them. That’s why China is so scary - it’s this level (probably more) or propaganda but with the majority of the country completely cut off from any outside news.

As an aside I find it so weird the U.K. is always the main baddie - kind of shows how backwards Russia is. We stopped being a major power long ago.
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Indeed. We could discuss about it in the "Cold War against China?" thread. The amount of propaganda against the US and against Japan in all Chinese media is just ridiculously OTT, and the fact that they haven't been at war and now spoiling for a fight in a while is just setting up a time-ticking bomb.
 
harms said:
Oh, no, he's in charge alright. And no, there are no hidden puppeteers behind him, be it some mythical oligarchs or criminals from St. Petersburg — he had cleared out everyone who had helped him to get there & felt that they could control him ages ago (Berezovsky would be the prime example). Watch the council meeting of Russian Security Council that happened a few days before the invasion, on 21th of February, and watch how he purposely humiliates some of the most influential people in the country to showcase his ultimate authority. It's feels like watching some prison movie.

I do believe that he has the power to stop the war if he wants to. He clearly doesn't though, but even if he did there's obviously a consideration of how the people, who are overstimulated by the ridiculous and ever-present propaganda, are going to react to him finishing the war with "the Nazis" without getting anything of significance back & leading the country into a huge economical crisis. He's backed himself into the corner and it looks like he's going to push though until something breaks — either Ukraine or his own regime. Hopefully the latter.
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You are right! That council meeting on Feb 21th was shocking for me. If my boss talked to me like that, in private not in public, I'd resign that same day, no matter how much money I was making. It is astounding that these people sit there and allow to be humiliated like this.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Yeah we’re extremely strong given our ties - close to the US, most of the commonwealth and, despite Brexit, we’re kind of still seen as European. I find it strange they chose us and not Germany - a country who are a recent enemy.

Talking of a Germany they have supposedly just blocked Spain sending 40 Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
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Why?
 
harms said:
Not exactly. Putin wasn't allowed to get the third term in a row (God knows why this "in a row" was in the Constitution in the first place), so Medvedev switched with him for the third one. The change in the constitution happened later, during a later Putin's term, when they've erased/nullified Putin's previous terms. Medvedev did increase the length of those terms though, from 4 years to 6 years.

Medvedev is a tool, of course. Some people were hopeful when he first came in since he was clearly more liberal and open to the world than Putin was but I never really believed that he would have the guts to try and to get out from under Putin's heel... he didn't. It is believed that he at least considered not giving the place back — or that Putin felt like it may have been the option, we'll never know, so he completely fell out of Putin's favour after they've switched back and now Medvedev finally saw an opportunity to gain that trust back.
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Thank you for the clarifications!
 
frostbite said:
Why?
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"When German weapons are sold, there is what is known as an end-use clause. This is where the buyer needs Germany's Federal Government's approval before handing over the weapons at a later date."

So its basically Germany's decision and they've decided not to because of the same reason nobody else has sent modern MBT's, whatever that is.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Yeah we’re extremely strong given our ties - close to the US, most of the commonwealth and, despite Brexit, we’re kind of still seen as European. I find it strange they chose us and not Germany - a country who are a recent enemy.

Talking of a Germany they have supposedly just blocked Spain sending 40 Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
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frostbite said:
Why?
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According to Business Insider the tanks were in a terrible state and the number they are sending now is 10 instead of 40. Although even the 10 they are sending may take some time to be repaired. Don't think it has anything to do with Germany.

https://www.businessinsider.de/poli...ckzieher-bei-leopard-2-panzer-fuer-ukraine-d/
 
harms said:
The gangsters in Russia don't have the power that they've had in the 90's. Putin always pushes the argument that it was him who had dragged the country out of the 90's when Russia was divided between the mob & oligarchs and in a way it's true, the only issue is that he wasn't doing it for the country, he simply took everything for himself.

It was a long process obviously but most of it happened in the 00's with siloviki (police, FSB, security service, prison guards etc.) gradually getting more and more power. There's a book in English called "The Vory: Russia's Super Mafia" that depicts that subculture well. At some point more than a half of Russia's prisons were run by the inmates and Vory (literally "thieves" — or "Vory v Zakone" / "thieves in law" — obligatory tag @VorZakone ) were at the top of that rough hierarchy. They're pretty much extinct now and those that are alive are long in hiding.

It's hard to run a shadow criminal organisation in a totalitarian state with well-financed repressive institutions, full control of every branch of political power and little to no concern about following their own laws — those are for the public, siloviki can (and literally do on a systemic basis) torture and even kill people or send people to prison on made up charges (where they are also tortured and/or killed).
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Thanks for that!

I've seen Eastern Promises twice so I'm pretty much an expert on the Vor. ;)
 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grigory_Yudin

In early 2022, Yudin warned of a lack of political awareness amongst the Russian population about the Russo-Ukrainian crisis. On 22 February 2022, Yudin predicted that Putin was "about to start the most senseless war in history". After participating in protest against the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, he was beaten unconscious by police and needed treatment at the Sklifosovsky Institute in central Moscow.
 
Frosty said:
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More for the geopolitics thread maybe, but yes, I read a newspapers article about this some time in 2021. Russia basically constantly moves its border forward. It's very gradual, tiny steps at a time, but it's clearly happening.
 
It has English subtitles and sets out to explains why - amongst the elite of powerful people in Russia - Putin is now seen as their biggest problem.

 
At the beginning you have that main Russian propaganda show saying they’re coming for the territory they lost when the USSR collapsed, that they’re coming for half of Poland and all the Baltic states.

They claim North Korea is “sovereign” because they have nuclear weapons and Poland isn’t, so this seems to be what Putin meant by “sovereignty” in his speech the other day.

As if Poland couldn’t make a nuke if they needed to.

 
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