Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

ShoePolish said:
Finland doubling russian border with NATO, Kazakhstan pissing off putin by saying they won't acknowledge DNR and LNR, now Lithuania with this, how does one choose what special military operation to do next?
I suspect he might involve his mutt Lukashenko to somehow deal with this, though.
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That would be a very dark day for the Belarusian Army.
 
ShoePolish said:
Finland doubling russian border with NATO, Kazakhstan pissing off putin by saying they won't acknowledge DNR and LNR, now Lithuania with this, how does one choose what special military operation to do next?
I suspect he might involve his mutt Lukashenko to somehow deal with this, though.
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Not even Lukashenko is crazy enough to attack Nato. Belarus vs Nato might be the most one sided war ever waged.
 
ShoePolish said:
Finland doubling russian border with NATO, Kazakhstan pissing off putin by saying they won't acknowledge DNR and LNR, now Lithuania with this, how does one choose what special military operation to do next?
I suspect he might involve his mutt Lukashenko to somehow deal with this, though.
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With around half of the country visibly opposed to Lukashenko after last year's protests, any involvement would sign his own death warrant.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
Not even Lukashenko is crazy enough to attack Nato. Belarus vs Nato might be the most one sided war ever waged.
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I’m suspecting that Lukashenka, while a very provincial fella, is more acting the idiot than is an idiot. I believe he knows Russia/Putin have messed up by starting this war and he is doing everything he can to stay out of it, while also paying lip service to Russia who helped him stay in power.

He also knows there’s huge public discontent against him and his position is only retained through brute force. If he puts his pampered and corrupt military in harms way they could turn on him. And then he’s toast.

So I expect he’ll continue to use all his tricks to try and keep Belarus out of it. There’s no way he’s attacking anyone.
 
MadMike said:
I’m suspecting that Lukashenka, while a very provincial fella, is more acting the idiot than is an idiot. I believe he knows Russia/Putin have messed up by starting this war and he is doing everything he can to stay out of it, while also paying lip service to Russia who helped him stay in power.

He also knows there’s huge public discontent against him and his position is only retained through brute force. If he puts his pampered and corrupt military in harms way they could turn on him. And then he’s toast.

So I expect he’ll continue to use all his tricks to try and keep Belarus out of it. There’s no way he’s attacking anyone.
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Not sure if it was you but I remember early in this thread there was a piece on Lukashenko and how he acts the clown to appease Putin but is actually very calculated - zero idea of there's a shred of truth to it but was interesting to read!
 
So how this war ends? Russia retreats and says - oops, or Ukraine gives up eastern territories?
Simbo said:
Interesting...

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I thought Russians are out of supplies? They have been running out of supplies since 3rd week of the war.
 
ExoduS said:
So how this war ends? Russia retreats and says - oops, or Ukraine gives up eastern territories?



I thought Russians are out of supplies? They have been running out of supplies since 3rd week of the war.
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Russia is not out of supplies... Although clearly struggling in some areas. They have seemingly unlimited amounts of artillery ammo.

They may be about to unleash their remaining stock of Kalibr missiles on Odessa though, there are question marks around if they can replace those.
 
ExoduS said:
So how this war ends? Russia retreats and says - oops, or Ukraine gives up eastern territories?



I thought Russians are out of supplies? They have been running out of supplies since 3rd week of the war.
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Probably Putin will end up like Milosevic. It may take a few years, even Milosevic survived for a while.
 
frostbite said:
Probably Putin will end up like Milosevic. It may take a few years, even Milosevic survived for a while.
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For Milosevic to completely go down it took NATO to bomb Serbia for 78 days where innocent children died as a collateral. Easy to bomb a country that can't fight back. There is a bit of hesitancy bombing Russia.
 
ExoduS said:
For Milosevic to completely go down it took NATO to bomb Serbia for 78 days where innocent children died as a collateral. Easy to bomb a country that can't fight back. There is a bit of hesitancy bombing Russia.
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NATO did not capture Milosevic. The Serbs arrested him for his crimes. The Russians will do the same for the dictator Putin, give them a couple of years.
 
frostbite said:
NATO did not capture Milosevic. The Serbs arrested him for crimes.
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True. He lost elections. However his demise came after those powerful around him turned the other way. Same can happen in Russia, but Putin can't be too cozy. We shall see what happens. Situation is complex and simple all at the same time. It really is terrible for all the innocent people that have to suffer or die. Life is hard enough without war.
 
ExoduS said:
True. He lost elections. However his demise came after those powerful around him turned the other way. Same can happen in Russia, but Putin can't be too cozy. We shall see what happens. Situation is complex and simple all at the same time. It really is terrible for all the innocent people that have to suffer or die. Life is hard enough without war.
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Yes it is terrible that Putin caused so much suffering. And it s terrible that Milosevic caused so much suffering. Dreams of a Great Russia (or a Great Serbia) were catastrophic.
 
I love how Kremlin works, let us have our special military operation in peace, dont put sanctions on us, be friends with us cause if you get involved you're the cause of all the troubles. Not us who made a brutal attack on independent state.
 
Seems like Russia are winning this war, slowly but surely taking over Ukraine.

(Despite the impression that the Western propaganda tries to show)
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
Seems like Russia are winning this war, slowly but surely taking over Ukraine.

(Despite the impression that the Western propaganda tries to show)
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Local tactical success is not the same as strategic success. Ukraine is a huge country and Russia has already failed on its original war aims. Russian propaganda is promoting the view that they are winning as well.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
Seems like Russia are winning this war, slowly but surely taking over Ukraine.

(Despite the impression that the Western propaganda tries to show)
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Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (arcgis.com)
Russia are slowly coming through from the East but it looks like it's at the cost of the Kherson/Kharkiv ends of the front line. I can't see Russia not eventually taking the full Donbas region, what will be telling is what happens next.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
Seems like Russia are winning this war, slowly but surely taking over Ukraine.

(Despite the impression that the Western propaganda tries to show)
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They’re having an upper hand in this phase of the war, there’s a world of difference between this and “winning the war”. And strategically it’s at least debatable if time works for Russia in this case, Ukraine has more to look forward to in terms of potential weapon supplies & personnel.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
Seems like Russia are winning this war, slowly but surely taking over Ukraine.

(Despite the impression that the Western propaganda tries to show)
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You think a free press and journalists reporting what they see on the ground are “western propaganda” ? Interesting.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
Seems like Russia are winning this war, slowly but surely taking over Ukraine.

(Despite the impression that the Western propaganda tries to show)
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I think This was always going to be the case. They’re just too powerful for Ukraine. I really want Ukraine to win and they’ve far exceeded most peoples expectations but Russia is just too big. It seems they can lose men and equipment at will and still they come. Ukraine doesn’t have that luxury.
 
Totally off topic, but why do I sometimes see Lukashenko and other times Lukashenka?
 
Stookie said:
I think This was always going to be the case. They’re just too powerful for Ukraine. I really want Ukraine to win and they’ve far exceeded most peoples expectations but Russia is just too big. It seems they can lose men and equipment at will and still they come. Ukraine doesn’t have that luxury.
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Ukraine has 1/3 the population of Russia and if supplied with modern Western weapons, they have enough resilience to at least fight this to a stalemate. The west on the other hand should either throw its complete backing behind Ukraine or back out so that Ukrainians know they can't win this and surrender. The current tactic of supplying just enough weapons so that the war is prolonged, Russia is hurt long term and Ukrainians lose their lives in the thousands is really immoral IMO.
 
MuFc_1992 said:
Ukraine has 1/3 the population of Russia and if supplied with modern Western weapons, they have enough resilience to at least fight this to a stalemate. The west on the other hand should either throw its complete backing behind Ukraine or back out so that Ukrainians know they can't win this and surrender. The current tactic of supplying just enough weapons so that the war is prolonged, Russia is hurt long term and Ukrainians lose their lives in the thousands is really immoral IMO.
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It seems like Biden and EU leaders haven’t quite grasped this, they sort of still hoping it just magically goes away. Define war objectives clearly (Ukrainian victory) and adhere to it, currently the aims in the white house are still very vague.
 
MuFc_1992 said:
Ukraine has 1/3 the population of Russia and if supplied with modern Western weapons, they have enough resilience to at least fight this to a stalemate. The west on the other hand should either throw its complete backing behind Ukraine or back out so that Ukrainians know they can't win this and surrender. The current tactic of supplying just enough weapons so that the war is prolonged, Russia is hurt long term and Ukrainians lose their lives in the thousands is really immoral IMO.
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Its not that they are supplying "just enough" to prolong the war. Its that they don't want to incentivize Putin to escalate and use more destructive weapons, which will put the west in a bind, since they will then be under pressure to escalate militarily. Nobody wants that. The slow grind strategy alongside supplying Ukraine with high tech western weapons, is therefore the appropriate thing to do.
 
MuFc_1992 said:
Ukraine has 1/3 the population of Russia and if supplied with modern Western weapons, they have enough resilience to at least fight this to a stalemate. The west on the other hand should either throw its complete backing behind Ukraine or back out so that Ukrainians know they can't win this and surrender. The current tactic of supplying just enough weapons so that the war is prolonged, Russia is hurt long term and Ukrainians lose their lives in the thousands is really immoral IMO.
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I suspect it’s very easy for us to say ‘send more’ versus the reality of getting it safely into Ukraine undetected, training soldiers and putting it to use. It’s also a very precarious situation for Ukraine, they have to protect the new artillery systems beyond almost anything else as can you imagine how quickly the aid would dry up if we saw some pictures of a load of blown up or, worse yet, captured NATO artillery.
 
MuFc_1992 said:
Ukraine has 1/3 the population of Russia and if supplied with modern Western weapons, they have enough resilience to at least fight this to a stalemate. The west on the other hand should either throw its complete backing behind Ukraine or back out so that Ukrainians know they can't win this and surrender. The current tactic of supplying just enough weapons so that the war is prolonged, Russia is hurt long term and Ukrainians lose their lives in the thousands is really immoral IMO.
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You make a very good point there about the West just prolonging it - whether intentionally or not, Id not really considered that. Some more food for thought.
 
MuFc_1992 said:
The west on the other hand should either throw its complete backing behind Ukraine or back out so that Ukrainians know they can't win this and surrender
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You think Ukraine would surrender if the West backed out? Do you perhaps think this is a war between Russia and 'The West'?

Even if the US backed out cos they voted in another nutjob or something, Poland, Lithuania etc never ever would. Those that know the harsh reality of Russian imperialism in their not too distant past.
 
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