I don't know this Zeihan guy, but he doesn't sound impressive. Putin and his cronies love talking shit but they know their limits.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
I don't know this Zeihan guy, but he doesn't sound impressive. Putin and his cronies love talking shit but they know their limits.
He's the guy who predicted the invasion when few did, book was up to #3 on the NYT nonfiction best seller list last month, read by many influential people, DC think tank member who is in high demand, I've found his presentations on YouTube to be extremely impressive, gets to elemental issues and clearly demonstrates details.
Hard to find anyone as knowledgeable that gives such a complete picture with which to contrast his perspective. But I'll take any recommendations, already checked out Mearsheimer though.
I don't want to overstate things, he's only said that the situation is scarier in some ways because Russia would have to retreat in confrontation with NATO, and so it brings nukes to the table as the only option, which is a dangerous place to be.
With things going so badly, it surely is causing a rethink, and so new predictions may be too be made when and if Russia move in another direction.
But as I said above, his info is great, and very complete. Here's a presentation he made recently to some US military officers, check it out if you have time, we'll worth it.
I reckon the West won't wanna give China the impression that they can "get away" with a Taiwan invasion. And therefore, the West might be very willing to make sure Russia suffers a defeat.
The fact that you refer to him as "your guru" should be alarming enough for yourself. And that you think he is the go-to-guy in covid and Russia should be another alarm bell. Again he is a total random and plenty of what you posted by him is flat out crazy.
I highly doubt he offers literally anything to anyone else in this thread, whatever anyone's bias is.
The only viable option of attacking Baltic states I've seen so far, was stating that Russia would have to make same sort of light version of blitzkrieg they made on Kyiv, as defenses would be alot easier to overcome, aim to quickly take all government buildings, installing puppet regime and have them refuse NATO military aid citing russian liberation from some sort of evil repressions.
They'll have to come up with something different now, if NATO will go through with strengthening eastern flank. NATO also has to be more proactive.
But I think Russia is overestimated as much as it is underestimated. They're down to a single localized push in Ukraine and should be running low on modern tech weapons.
Edit: Also, regarding Poland, I don't think there's even a discussion there, poles are more than capable of putting up enough resistance for whole of NATO to have a breakfast, take a dump, then arrive and wipe the floor with russians.
They'll have to come up with something different now, if NATO will go through with strengthening eastern flank. NATO also has to be more proactive.
But I think Russia is overestimated as much as it is underestimated. They're down to a single localized push in Ukraine and should be running low on modern tech weapons.
Edit: Also, regarding Poland, I don't think there's even a discussion there, poles are more than capable of putting up enough resistance for whole of NATO to have a breakfast, take a dump, then arrive and wipe the floor with russians.
Whist the "Russia would never invade a NATO country" is very true, at least any time soon, you have to think how Russia operates. They don't just straight up invade anyone, it is proceeded with campaigns of information warfare and corruption, their specialty and main strength. In Russia everything and everyone is for sale, they treat the rest of the world the same way.
Bellingcat reported that billions had been funnelled to various key Ukrainians to hamper defenses and stage a coup on day 1, they took it and handed it straight to the SBU, for the most part. However, the Kherson oblast governer just ran away and the commanders seemingly opened the gates (bridges) without mounting a defense. The former mayor of Kherson has been charged with high-treason.
Ukraine was very fortunate Russia only managed to buy the one city, this time.
The Baltic states have already proven quite resiliant, they've been under these kind of attacks since independance, but they can never let their guard down. They don't know what the state of the world and NATO politics will be like in a decade or so, as new world leaders and crisis emerge.
Bellingcat reported that billions had been funnelled to various key Ukrainians to hamper defenses and stage a coup on day 1, they took it and handed it straight to the SBU, for the most part. However, the Kherson oblast governer just ran away and the commanders seemingly opened the gates (bridges) without mounting a defense. The former mayor of Kherson has been charged with high-treason.
Ukraine was very fortunate Russia only managed to buy the one city, this time.
The Baltic states have already proven quite resiliant, they've been under these kind of attacks since independance, but they can never let their guard down. They don't know what the state of the world and NATO politics will be like in a decade or so, as new world leaders and crisis emerge.
If I referred to him as my guru I was being cute, I've just been reading him recently, and been very impressed, as I've said. You seem strangely hostile about his ideas, i can't say I understand why, I'll be happy to discuss them if you'll stop being rude.
(Edit: I don't recall saying he was my go to guy for covid either, you'll have to refresh my memory if I mentioned covid at all.)
Yes indeed. The Russians have learned that the cost of destabilizing a country in slow motion and with little to no attribution, is far less costly than invading it. Putin's manipulation of foreign elections in over 25 countries is evidence of this.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...documented-27-countries-since-2004/619056001/
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Considering the UK&US made a joint statement basically saying China was the biggest threat in the world that's a safe bet.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...in-ukraine-dares-west-to-fight-on-battlefield
Putin claims Russia has barely started campaign in Ukraine, dares west to fight on battlefield
‘Everyone should know that, by and large, we haven’t started anything yet in earnest,’ Russian president tells Kremlin parliamentary leaders
Putin claims Russia has barely started campaign in Ukraine, dares west to fight on battlefield
‘Everyone should know that, by and large, we haven’t started anything yet in earnest,’ Russian president tells Kremlin parliamentary leaders
You're taken his gaslighting out of context. It sounds like he wants to sue for peace while keeping captured territories and is blaming the west for Ukrainian loss of life if he doesn't get what he wants.
A big one. It appears these relentless targeting of ammo dumps are taking their toll.
Very sensible military strategy from the Ukrainians.
Given how many of those countries seem to be actively sending weapons / support to Ukraine you could argue he's not done a very good job of itYes indeed. The Russians have learned that the cost of destabilizing a country in slow motion and with little to no attribution, is far less costly than invading it. Putin's manipulation of foreign elections in over 25 countries is evidence of this.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...documented-27-countries-since-2004/619056001/
Ukraine added 35 tanks to its kill tally in its last update. Apparently that depot hit above was tank storage.
Absolute animals. But it would point to an expectation that they don't think they can keep this land. That is if it's in occupied territories.
Barbarians with nukes sounds about right. Putin is basically a blundering Genghis Kahn impersonator.
If this is correct it indicates that Russia are practically out of ground attack precision weapons.
I hope that is correct, but I am wary of predicting this again, after so many false dawns.
I remember what happened the last time Russia had a "pause" after their logistics network was torn to shreds. But yes be wary
Still, I'm hoping I'll wake up one day soon to see a hole in the Kerch bridge and Kherson fully under seige.
US just announced that they will send 4 more Himars, with 8 already there and the 9 M270 promised by UK, Germany and Norway the long range precision capabilities of Ukraine will become pretty substansial soon.
Honestly the Republican Party's love affair with Russia makes me want Biden to send as much as humanly possible before November. Make it 80 HIMARS!
Looks like they are not learning anything from their previous mistakes.
Whoever commands as the real military authority over that army will definitely go down in the annals of history and on the list of most incompetent generals ever alongside the likes of Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf, Luigi Cadorna and William Westmoreland.
"Fired" is a strong word, since he's reportedly getting a new job as deputy foreign minister. A Russian asset couldn't have done a much worse job than him.
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I can somewhat understand Hötzendorf and Cadorna, but why Westmoreland? I'm hardly a great expert on Vietnam war but to me it always seemed that it was more or less unwinnable from the USA side if you take into account the political situation and the constraints any American commander operated under which were set by civilian leadership.
Slightly off topic I guess, but I'm genuinely interested.
To put an end to the off-topic part, this article from 11 years ago has listed 10 solid reasons as to how and why he lost the Vietnam War. In contrast, the British found a way to win the hearts and minds of the Malays during the 1948-1960 conflict against the communist MNLA years before the Vietnam War became a serious thing.
In order to win a war, you can't just go by body counts and utter destruction. The concept of winning over the hearts and minds should be a primary item in order to win any conflict.
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