Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

RedRover said:
I don't agree with this. The Annexations change nothing. They're not recognised by the rest of the world and Putin knows that. If we was going to escalate why not do so before? The tide has been turning for months. He has warned before that the flow of weapons must stop, and that strikes could be made on supply lines into Ukraine, yet he did nothing.

Annexation also gives him the chance to declare some kind of victory at home. He can pour soldiers in to the annexed territory and dig in.

He's got as many problems in Russia as he has in Ukraine and seeing NATO intervene and wiping out his Army on the ground in Ukraine, and sinking the Black Sea fleet in a conventional attack doesn't seem to solve any of them. Neither does losing what little international links he has left.

I accept he is a dangerous man, but he seems not to have any overarching plan any more. It's all reactive and seems to be designed to survive a bit longer, kick the can down the road and hope for a miracle.
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Exactly that. He's technically annexed Crimea 8 years ago, Ukraine have kept 'attacking' there and he's not used any of those weapons.

Also, I do not believe NATO would get involved even if he used nukes in Ukraine. He won't test it though.
 
The only card that putin holds is the nuclear one, but it's a damn strong one. You can try and call his bluff, but if unlucky you will lose everything. Basically how i see this situation.

I hate saying that Ukraine should stop fighting, it's not my decision at all or anything, but i do wonder if a stalemate is the best option while waiting for Putin to die and hope someone reasonable gets in charge next, but that is probably not likely either.
 
YouOnlyLiveTwice said:
What do you think NATO would do in the case of a nuclear attack on Ukraine? I doubt they will repay it in similar fashion, more sanctions maybe, but that won't help the dead Ukrainians.
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There are hardly any more sanctions to lay out on Russia, I don't think them using nuclear weapons would actually change anything in how the West approaches this.
 
YouOnlyLiveTwice said:
The only card that putin holds is the nuclear one, but it's a damn strong one. You can try and call his bluff, but if unlucky you will lose everything. Basically how i see this situation.

I hate saying that Ukraine should stop fighting, it's not my decision at all or anything, but i do wonder if a stalemate is the best option while waiting for Putin to die and hope someone reasonable gets in charge next, but that is probably not likely either.
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You lose everything if you allow him to swing that sabre anyway.

Also, if he's allowed to win here there's virtually no chance of him getting replaced by someone sane even if he dies, and he's only 70, he's going to be around for a while. We too have too remember that Trump is actually fairly likely to win the next US elections and if that happens, US may actually become Russia's ally instead of their foe in this war...
 
YouOnlyLiveTwice said:
The only card that putin holds is the nuclear one, but it's a damn strong one. You can try and call his bluff, but if unlucky you will lose everything. Basically how i see this situation.

I hate saying that Ukraine should stop fighting, it's not my decision at all or anything, but i do wonder if a stalemate is the best option while waiting for Putin to die and hope someone reasonable gets in charge next, but that is probably not likely either.
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Did you watch the news this morning?
 
maniak said:
What's with this "anglo-saxons" stuff? Is it a reference to something? I don't remember this being a thing.
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A way to make U.S. sound scarier (by adding U.K.) and also to somehow integrate this supposed centurues-long confrontation into his own mythical version of history, as Anglo-saxons is a term that most know from history books.

It’s a relatively new addiction to his rhetoric, I believe.
 
TMDaines said:
If Russia uses nuclear weapons, the West will respond to ensure a complete Russian defeat. It’s up to Russia how far and how quickly they want to escalate this, but everything points towards their defeat right now. That could be tucking their tail between their legs and withdrawing (now very unlikely) or putting the West in a position where they have no choice but to militarily intervene and destroy their armed forces.

Do you see any scenario where Russia nukes Ukraine and the US and its allies just accepts it?
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Not accept it, but i don't see them doing something that could risk starting a nuclear war with Russia. I don't know how far Putin is willing to go if completely cornered (wish i did), but in a nuclear war nobody wins, unless you prefer death to living of course.
 
YouOnlyLiveTwice said:
The only card that putin holds is the nuclear one, but it's a damn strong one. You can try and call his bluff, but if unlucky you will lose everything. Basically how i see this situation.

I hate saying that Ukraine should stop fighting, it's not my decision at all or anything, but i do wonder if a stalemate is the best option while waiting for Putin to die and hope someone reasonable gets in charge next, but that is probably not likely either.
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A stalemate or frozen conflict only delays the problem by a few years. It is in his nature to recharge his army and strike again later. I was in shamefully favour of ceding Crimea in 2014 to satiate Putin because I didn't want my peaceful European life to be threatened. No more of that shite.

The question is "How do you make sure Putin never attacks Europe again"? Because he (or his underlings) will attack, again and again, always threatening nuclear war. And everytime he does, lots of people die, gas prices go crazy, economy crashes and everyone (who hasn't died) loses money.

How much land do we cede to him before he is satisfied? It's a tough conversation to have, but the Western leaders must decide at what point is a nuclear war worth having. Maybe Ukraine is not worth nuclear war, but is Poland worth it? Latvia? Estonia? Germany? France? UK?
 
Interesting he mentioned ceasefire. Along with 4 territories of the table of course.

Or theres nothing in it.
 
@harms is there any fear of what going nuclear could mean in Russia? Do people even think about it, or is the propaganda machine able to convince everyone that it's the evil NATO monsters forcing Putin to drop a calamity the likes of which the world has only seen once on his doorstep (or maybe even on the evil "Anglo Saxons" he's blaming for nordstream 1)
 
YouOnlyLiveTwice said:
What do you think NATO would do in the case of a nuclear attack on Ukraine? I doubt they will repay it in similar fashion, more sanctions maybe, but that won't help the dead Ukrainians.
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Ironically if he does, which I don’t think he will, NATO might as well have intervened at the very start. But hindsight 20/20 and all that.

It has been discussed a lot, but even if he pushed the button the question would be whether the chain of command would actually go with it or chuck him out of a window.

As for NATO response, all gloves off. I’d imagine them going all in and kicking Russia out of Ukraine and sanctioning them to hell. China also wouldn’t be very happy with a nuclear war.
 
It's the not late 1940s anymore, people aren't afraid of Nuclear weapons as they were then after the bombs hit Japan. At least people from my region. There are absolutely zero reasons to be afraid of Russia or anyone else who tries to act like them - it's the only way to be together and move forward, support Ukraine with everything they need, and move forward with legislation to weaken the Russian standing point.
 
GazTheLegend said:
@harms is there any fear of what going nuclear could mean in Russia? Do people even think about it, or is the propaganda machine able to convince everyone that it's the evil NATO monsters forcing Putin to drop a calamity the likes of which the world has only seen once on his doorstep (or maybe even on the evil "Anglo Saxons" he's blaming for nordstream 1)
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I think everyone understands what going nuclear means, the MAD doctrine have been around for decades. It’s really hard to get a proper feeling of what people in Russia think today though.
 
JuriM said:
It's the not late 1940s anymore, people aren't afraid of Nuclear weapons as they were then after the bombs hit Japan. At least people from my region. There are absolutely zero reasons to be afraid of Russia or anyone else who tries to act like them - it's the only way to be together and move forward, support Ukraine with everything they need, and move forward with legislation to weaken the Russian standing point.
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The height of worry over a nuclear war wasn't in the 1940s, it was probably more like the 60s and 70s, maybe 80s. People might not be very afraid of nuclear weapons, but they should be.
 
JuriM said:
It's the not late 1940s anymore, people aren't afraid of Nuclear weapons as they were then after the bombs hit Japan. At least people from my region. There are absolutely zero reasons to be afraid of Russia or anyone else who tries to act like them - it's the only way to be together and move forward, support Ukraine with everything they need, and move forward with legislation to weaken the Russian standing point.
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Fear of nuclear engagement existed into the mid 80s.

e - what @nimic said.
 
TMDaines said:
You think Ukraine should sign over the lives of a big chunk of its populace to live under a regime that does things like this?

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I wish that putin would never have invaded Ukraine in the first place. But i'm afraid that Putin has now decided that he has this line, where if you go over it you get the bullet (in this case a tactical nuclear missile), and it's going to be Ukrainians at the receiving end. I hope my fear is not correct, and that Ukraine will keep gaining back land and at the end we see putin with a rope around his neck.
 
Putin blaming the Anglo-Saxons is not something I expected to read today.

We definitely sure he doesn't realise he isn't playing Civilization V.
 
It’s quite a smart move regardless especially when it comes to taking over the informational space in the media on this day.
 
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