Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

I think there’s a pretty good chance we are going to see a major escalation in the coming weeks. Once Putin officially annexes the Ukrainian territories, he will use it as a pretext to claim Ukraine is attacking Russian land, which will be used as justification to use more powerful weapons (whether it’s nukes or other WMDs we don’t know ). Once that happens, NATO will be forced to get involved, at which point we will reach a dangerous precipice.

I don't, personally. Russia has two main narratives to attack the west with, Nuclear threats and Europe freezing in the winter threats. These are not new narratives, they have always been there. The "we'll defend our make-belief Russian territory with everything we have" is just building into the nuclear narrative, like blowing up the pipelines builds into the Europe freezing narrative.

This is what they do, it works, they are very good at it. Most observers now seem to really believe Putin is going to use nukes to defend occupied Ukrainian land... You'd have to believe he is mentally unwell on a level we've never seen before, not the mention the other order givers and button pressers required to take out such an action. I don't, personally.

Putin does appear hellbent on destroying Russia, but this would be several steps too far.

The only escalation I expect in the near future will be from the Ukrainian side once winter sets in, they will be far more prepared for it. Forget the other bollocks being thrown around about Russians being winter soldiers, they are gunna suffer.
 
They don't have any real power, Putin is way too dangerous for them to cross.

Billionaires do have power to be fair (and he will know that), but whether they'd cross Putin is another question. A couple have already hinted at their problems with his decisions and are still around.
 
The only escalation I expect in the near future will be from the Ukrainian side once winter sets in, they will be far more prepared for it. Forget the other bollocks being thrown around about Russians being winter soldiers, they are gunna suffer.

Indeed. Feels like winter could be absolutely brutal for the Russian troops. Ukraine have been smart so far with offering for Russians to surrender etc - when they are freezing their asses off with no winter gear, I can imagine a lot more of the invaders just giving up rather than freezing to death.
 
Only until they think there's more money long term in another leader though.
When will people grasp this, he is far far closer to Stalin than Yeltsin. Oligarchs that dared to utter some critique found themselves tripping over high rise windows soon after. Putin has complete control over the security (repressive) apparatus, one call and people just die of negligence or natural causes, while everyone looks the other way.
 
I swear I'm a real sucker for massive catching-ups. I'm such a procrastinator sometimes.



Don't bother; China is utterly pathetic in diplomacy. They always like to use their wolf warrior diplomats to bark shit at the West, but they will never have the balls to use that same rhetoric against fellow dictatorships through that punchable face of a spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.



Preferably in public as well.



Think about this: China threw millions of troops to support North Korea during the Korean War with the vast majority being very motivated veterans of the Sino-Japanese War and the Chinese Civil War. Despite initial successes, they were cut down, stopped and finally pushed back by the smaller, well-equipped and (in many cases) battle-hardened U.N. coalition. Anyone with some degree of interest in the history of warfare would know that sheer numbers stopped being a factor from around that war and beyond.

The man is mad enough to bring a military, social, demographic and economical disaster that will take decades to recover upon his country. The more you read his speech, the more you think he has gone down the same route as Brig. Gen Jack D. Ripper from Dr. Strangelove. But the really sad thing about that jackass speaking today is that we are all focused on that crap when we should be following and celebrating the Ukrainian advance in encircling Lyman.



If that is not already a clear signal for Ukraine to blow that bridge up, then I don't know what that signal will be. Sending Ukraine a few of those long-range (300km+) missiles for the HIMARS should be about right to get the job done. I know some analysts who studied the question said that blowing up the bridge would make it more difficult for NATO intel to track down supplying routes for Russian forces, but I say that supplying by maritime routes would not be much of a factor because we've already seen that they just don't have the capabilities to provide a consistent and solid supply line from the sea.
I don't think he's mad, I think he's a terrorist, with no honor, willing to do terrible things if they will turn out to his advantage. Zeihan's theory is that he sees this as an existential problem. Russia will not be able to defend the current border in 30 years because of the demographics of the country. So he wants more people under his control to draft, and he wants narrow corridors to defend. Because Russia don't believe they won't be invaded in the next 100 years.

There are lots of ways Putin could escalate without using nukes, he could destroy the Norway energy pipelines, for one.
 
Interesting video esp on the collateral damage assessments.



Basically, the military under-counts the damage done by a nuke attack or in his example an attack between the Paks and India would have a significant global impact beyond the sub-continent.
 
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Only until they think there's more money long term in another leader though.
. You have the power dynamic wrong. They exist at his mercy. Not the other way around.
 
When will people grasp this, he is far far closer to Stalin than Yeltsin. Oligarchs that dared to utter some critique found themselves tripping over high rise windows soon after. Putin has complete control over the security (repressive) apparatus, one call and people just die of negligence or natural causes, while everyone looks the other way.
Or in the more grim cases, kill their families in front of them before 'suiciding' them.
 
These latest counteroffensives have been really well thought through and armed forces have been nothing short of amazing on the ground. Real heroes of our generation shielding Europe from the russizm on their own. RIP to the fallen.
 
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Lyman is under Ukrainian flag now, UAF cleaning up the city now soon to be announced officially. Apparently, Ukraine allowed some Russian troops to leave the town (probably unarmed).
 
The only escalation I expect in the near future will be from the Ukrainian side once winter sets in, they will be far more prepared for it. Forget the other bollocks being thrown around about Russians being winter soldiers, they are gunna suffer.
In videos from the war a lot of the Russian troops are using civilian sneakers indicating that the Russian army isn't able to provide them with proper boots. Coming from a country with 6 months of below freezing temperatures and having spent a winter in the military, I'd say one of the most important factor in winter warfare is keeping your feet dry and warm, by the looks of things the Russians won't be able to do that.
 
How long before the oligarchs try to rein in Putin? Some of them must be losing a fortune as result of his stupidity.
They don’t have any power at all, it’s a weird misconception about Russia from the West.
 
They don’t have any power at all, it’s a weird misconception about Russia from the West.
Did they ever? Because 15 years ago the media was definitely saying so, though it's pretty clear now they have none.
 
Did they ever? Because 15 years ago the media was definitely saying so, though it's pretty clear now they have none.
I wouldn’t say that Russia was ever an oligarchy but yeah, in mid-to-late 90’s some oligarchs like Berezovsky or Gusinsky held a notable amount of political power. One of Putin’s main political actions at the beginning of his reign was to rob them of any remaining power (the case against Khodorkovsky’s Yukos being the most well-known example).
 
Russizm in their own words:

The ending is quite funny, he says “God is with us” straight after the murdering and looting stuff.
 
Found online:

In 1939 Hitler, and his entourage, talking of Poland, said the following: "an artificially created state, a gift from us", "this so-called state that does not have any national, historical, cultural and moral basis", "the favorite pet dog of Western democracies, which cannot be considered a cultured people at all", "I don't see a future for Americans... This country is in decline. They have racial problems and social inequality... How will they hold their own?"

This is literally the same thing Putin said today on Red Square in Moscow regarding Ukraine and the West. So what is the difference between Hitler and Putin?
 
The ending is quite funny, he says “God is with us” straight after the murdering and looting stuff.
Must be the Old Testament Yahweh, that guys an a$$hole to be fair. Pretty sure he tells people to murder and rape if I remember correctly.