Putin tends to look more effective when he manages to convince certain European leaders he is someone they can do business with, who they can convince to be more friendly through negotiations and some degree of appeasement. That is obviously no longer possible (despite Macron & Scholz’s best attempts), and leaders are finally beginning to realize the best way to deal with him is to gradually weaken him until he falls from within.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Putin tends to look more effective when he manages to convince certain European leaders he is someone they can do business with, who they can convince to be more friendly through negotiations and some degree of appeasement. That is obviously no longer possible (despite Macron & Scholz’s best attempts), and leaders are finally beginning to realize the best way to deal with him is to gradually weaken him until he falls from within.
The latest update from Rybar (pro-Russian) shows it already under full Ukrainian control:
Looks like the troops who stayed in Lyman are either killed or surrendered. Most of them apparently tried to break through to Kreminna during the night and took heavy losses on the road between Torskoye and Kreminna (you see the contested area were the Ukrainian troops (blue) arrived from the south and could attack the full length of that road). My post from earlier today was about the fight in that area, allegedly it was like "hunting squirrels" for the Ukrainian troops.
EDIT: I forgot to mention that there are also reports that Russian command has also already left Kreminna so they don't look confident that they can hold it. Considering that they also send massive reinforcements towards Lyman it's likely that there are indeed not very much strong units left in that area so a collapse is possible.
He's been claiming Crimea is part of Russia since 2014 and Russian soldiers have died there. There have even been causalities in Belgorod which is legit Russian territory. Also, why would Putin be itching for a fight with NATO when he's struggling to even fight Ukraine unless he wants to use Nukes and take everyone down with him but you can't just grant a tyrant whatever he wants just out of fear of nuclear Armageddon because in that case we should also be surrendering south Korea to Kim jong un.
The latest update from Rybar (pro-Russian) shows it already under full Ukrainian control:
Looks like the troops who stayed in Lyman are either killed or surrendered. Most of them apparently tried to break through to Kreminna during the night and took heavy losses on the road between Torskoye and Kreminna (you see the contested area were the Ukrainian troops (blue) arrived from the south and could attack the full length of that road). My post from earlier today was about the fight in that area, allegedly it was like "hunting squirrels" for the Ukrainian troops.
Thanks- sorry I missed the earlier message. This reminds me a little of the Allies Hundred Days in 1918. Attack one area and start rolling it up. When that front stabilises move focus and keep the defenders constantly on the move.
Earlier it looked like there was still fighting in Lyman, now the Russians believe that they have completely lost it, so it was news now
And it might be a good comparison. At least it looks like in that area every successful Ukrainian offense does lead to a massive loss of heavy equipment for the Russians (which can partly be taken into service by Ukraine). This makes it more and more difficult for the Russians to resist further attacks
No he is not itching for a fight with nato, because even in the deranged state he is in, he knows that will lead to the complete demilitarisation of Russia. Even if someone had any doubts about that 6 months ago, it is completely obvious now.
kashmir was my thought.
Exactly. Not condemning the Russian behaviour doesn't necessarily mean supporting Russia in this current war, but can also simply be to leave options open to do something similar.
I won't post them here but there are a lot of videos/pictures emerging showing the aftermath of the Lyman battle and the Russian retreat. Lots and lots of dead Russian bodies and AFU estimate that there are around 900 dead Russians only on the road out of Lyman. PoWs and casualties from the actual city and it's surroundings aren't even included in that. Lots of destroyed vehicles as well. Reminds me a bit of the "Highway of Death" in Iraq 1991.
Putin is basically a one trick pony, he’s like a poker player who aggressively bluffs and his opposition know it’s likely a bluff but don’t want to take the risk themselves. NATO until now has basically not done anything to curb his aggression but that changed with the reaction to this invasion. NATO adapted their approach but Putin hasn’t, he’s not some great strategist (in fact it looks like he’s terrible judging by reports he was directly working with the military) this is all he has, escalation after escalation until he wins or loses. He will lose if the West keeps backing Ukraine.
Just like most dictators his years of power has made him narcisstic and he's surrounded himself with yes men. It's why someone who's never in touch with reality can win the war in the long run.
For the glory of mother Russia, they have accomplished a grand redeployment to the rear!
I thought the genstaff are not the ones calling the shots any longer...
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What happened in Dagestan, are the protests still continuing?
Nato should accept Ukraine within its family. Since its a defensive alliance Its deployment should be that of stopping any foreign army from trespassing into non annexed territory.
It won't move into annexed territory it doesn't recognize as Russian?
To let Ukraine join NATO and not help it claim back those regions is as good as openly acknowledging they are legally Russian.
It won't move into annexed territory it doesn't recognize as Russian?
To let Ukraine join NATO and not help it claim back those regions is as good as openly acknowledging they are legally Russian.
Nato is a defensive alliance. Ukraine would be joining Nato perfectly aware that 4 of its territories is under Russian control and its up to them to win it back. This compromise would limit Russian operation without Nato actively declaring war on Russia
But it's just not true. Lyman for example is lost and part of the four annexed oblasts.
Gesture of goodwill to celebrate recent annexation.
This sounds insane to me. A complete insult to Ukraine and a mockery of NATO.
A defensive alliance that wouldn't help claim back it's allies land.
Can we now conclude that Ukraine dictates the initiative and Russia is forced to react?
I don’t think they quite understand the way NATO operates, the process and the politics of it all. Ukraine is still years away from joining NATO, even if the war would end today.
Sadly NATO doesn’t operate like Russia, if it did:
Received application on Friday
Review on Monday
Acceptance on Tuesday
Russia kicked out of Ukraine on Thursday
It is a multi-step, long process. And they cannot join while at war. And even if they somehow worked around it, changing protocol etc. Then yeah, Ukraine would simply need to invoke Article 5 and NATO would be forced to act.
This idea of letting them join but not helping with an active war is just absurd.
Still a bit of premature, but it definitely looks like Russia is on the backfoot
NATO's argument is that its a defensive alliance. That means it can't actively engage into war with someone unless its get attacked first. Since Ukraine is engaged into an active war then it can't join NATO as by doing so would mean dragging NATO into war.
I think that there is a workable walk around that. NATO won't engage into war with Russian troops within the Annexed regions but it would stop any Russian troops from pouring into non annexed regions. If Ukraine is able to to liberate let's say Crimea that such region would be incorporated within the NATO agreement.
Such deal would provide a safe haven to Ukrainians within their territory, it will keep Zaporizhzhia power plant safe and it would allow the Ukrainians to focus solely on the annexed regions as the rest would be protected by NATO. The Kremlin would end up in a situation were they have to be very careful on how to plan their attacks as they risk killing NATO soldiers which in turn would give NATO the casus belli they need to start an open war with Russia. Considering that most Russian soldiers are conscripts and that most of their technology is ancient, then such scenario would severely limit the Russian operations.
Putin is popular in Russia because he has a social contract with his people were they allow him to do whatever he wants as long as he doesn't physically drags them into war. How would they react at the thought of sending their own children to war knowing that they might be the first line in a war against the West?
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Absolute gibberish.
About the impossibility of joining NATO at war...
In my opinion Putin's weakness lie with his people. They allow him to do whatever he wants on the condition that he doesn't send their children to war. In fact he's already struggling in selling this 'partial mobilization' against an enemy most Russian people consider as weaker then them. In this scenario the table could shift at any moment. Russian parents would end up sending their kids to war not knowing if they would end up the first line of defence against the Western juggernaut. How would they react to that? We're not talking about WW2 here were the Russians were defending their own country against the biggest bastard in European history. Russia is the aggressor this time round and it can avoid this massacre by just pulling out of the war.
InevitableThe Google Translation: (Not affiliated with Plechazunga)
I have always said: there is nothing better than the voiced truth, albeit bitter, offensive, but the truth. This is the only way to move forward. Therefore, I cannot remain silent about what happened in Krasny Liman.
The defense of this section was led by the commander of the Central Military District, Colonel-General Alexander Lapin. The same Lapin, who received the star of the Hero of Russia for the capture of Lisichansk, although de facto he was not there and was not around. Lapin was also given over to the troops of the Western Military District.
The colonel-general deployed mobilized fighters from the LPR and other units on all frontiers of the Liman direction, but did not provide them with the necessary communications, interaction and the supply of ammunition. Two weeks ago, Major General Commander of the Akhmat Special Forces, my dear BROTHER Apty Alaudinov, personally reported to me that our fighters could become an easy target. In turn, I informed Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, about the danger. But the general assured me that he had no doubts about Lapin's leadership talent and did not believe that a retreat was possible in Krasny Liman and its environs.
A week later, Lapin moves his headquarters to Starobelsk, a hundred kilometers from his subordinates, while he himself sits in Lugansk. How can you quickly manage units, being 150 km away from them? Due to the lack of elementary military logistics, today we have left several settlements and a large piece of territory.
It's not a shame that Lapin is mediocre. And the fact that he is covered at the top by the leaders in the General Staff. If I had my way, I would demote Lapin to a private, deprive him of his awards and, with a machine gun in his hands, send him to the front lines to wash away my shame with blood.
Army nepotism will not lead to good. In the army it is necessary to appoint as commanders people of a strong character, courageous, principled, who worry about their fighters, who tear their teeth for their soldier, who know that a subordinate cannot be left without help and support. There is no place for nepotism in the army, especially in difficult times.
We didn't have enough raisins? Even then I said: shoot at the enemy’s military concentration in the Izyum captured by the Nazis, especially since our artillery at that time had such an opportunity. At once they would have finished with the main Satanists and fascists. We must carry out NWO in the full sense of the word, and not flirt. Use every opportunity and every weapon to defend OUR territory. Donetsk is still being shelled. Residents of the joined 4 territories want to be protected.
I don't know what the Russian Defense Ministry reports to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, but in my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken, up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons. It is not necessary to take every decision with an eye on the Western American community - it has already said so and done a lot against us.
Yesterday there was a parade in Izyum, today a flag in Liman, and what tomorrow?
Everything would be fine if it weren't so bad.
It's fascinating that the hawks like Kadyrov or Igor Girkin are so on point in their analysis and yet the actual leadership doesn't seem to have a clue.
In other news: There has been a huge explosion at Belbek air field on Crimea. Looks like a plane didn't stop on the runway but crashed and exploded, so likely not a Ukrainian action (though maybe the plane was damaged and for that reason crashed) and I don't know if there has been any more damage than just this one plane. Still a loss is a loss.