Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Quite a big increase in attempts to destroy supplies/supply lines in recent days. We had drone attacks in Crimea, HIMARS o'clock is a thing again after a winter break, and we have activity in Russian cities close to the border.
Interestingly enough, the same guy who originally reported on Russia having those kits says that the bombs that fell down onto Belgorod were meant to be dropped there — but the glide kit didn't work so instead of gliding towards Kharkiv they fell straight down. Imagine the risk though, sending down bombs above your own city... if his theory is correct, that is.
NATO estimate Russian casualties to be 5 times the number UA have lost in the fight of Bakhmut. This was my main point to start with. The city may fall, but in the long run, I'd still argue the fight for Bakhmut has been to UA's benefit. Ukraine of course do not want to lose any of their cities, but the importance of this city still doesn't match the effort from the Russian side to control it. This is not Odessa or Kherson.
7 seasons of Agents of Shield does that to youDid someone say Hydra?
HAIL HYDRA!!!
Sorry, I really had to.
Agreed. Beyond the massive loss of life, holding off the Russians in Bakhmut for this long has almost taken on a metaphorical significance that may one day be reflected on as having helped to psychologically turn the tide of the entire war.
Yeah, that’s a pretty steady and consistent stream of reports about sabotage in recent days. Something definitely seems afoot.
Your argument was that losing it is irreverent. My argument was that it would be because of the way UA has been defending it while depleting their resources, and my thought has always been that it was the right thing for UA to not lose it easily due to its importance (obviously depending on how many losses UA had, which we won't know for some).
I meant irrelevant (or at least of minor importance) in the current situation. And there seems to be an agreement that it has been a successful strategy from UA to hold on to it, but then more because of the great Russian losses of personal than anything else. The development in the coming days and weeks will be most interesting.
Symbolically, the Ukrainians appear to have come out ahead in all of this since it ended up being the Russians who wound up depleting themselves. It’s also become a bit of a symbol for Wagner, Russia’s alleged best fighters, not being able to control a town, despite throwing all they had at it.
Grim
I missed this one. It seems like they were using Iranian shells for a while. Are there any indications of how they got it? From a cursory search it seems its possible it was purchased indirectly or even that the Americans, at one point, were contemplating sending rounds it had intercepted from Iranian attempts to send the ammunition to Yemen
Still trying to figure out where they got them from. Whether directly from the Iranians or elsewhere.
My assumption is that it's weapons the US and others have interdicted on its way from Iran to Yemen, but that's just an assumption. CENTCOM announced seizures on February 1st and March 1st, but they don't mention artillery specifically.
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS...tner-forces-in-major-iranian-weapons-seizure/
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS...ds-maritime-interdiction-of-iranian-missiles/
Danish media have reported on the nordstream attacks. Turns out the area had been crawling with Russian military ships in the weeks and months prior to the bombing, all operating as "ghost ships" of course. And several, including at least one with u boat capacity, where within hundreds of meters from the site, just one day prior to the explosion.
Shocking news, I know.
Shocking news, I know.
As for Bakhmut, I see similarities with Vukovar battle in Croatian Homeland war. Of course on a much smaller scale but esentially greatly outnumbered defenders of Vukovar held the JNA (Jugoslav peoples army), apparently 3rd stronest in Europe at the time and Serbian paramilitary for 2 months, time enough for the Croatian army to equip and prepare (although war waged in lots of other parts of the country) and to exhaust the Serbian army enough so they wouldn't go any further west towards Zagreb.
Battle of Vukovar - Wikipedia
Battle of Vukovar - Wikipedia
Russia is the most logical explanation IMO. but is funny the "shocking news" sentence like this or Raoul. Before it was clear that it was non gubernamental Ukranians or polish. Now they know that there was ghost military ships. How they know now and not 8-9 months ago?
Nothing that they are telling us true being the culprit russia or not. I find stupid the ukranian / polish story and I find the ghost military ships (in plural, like many) 8-9 months later. I am sure they know the truth since day one and they will never tell us
satellite imagery and intercepted radio communications is how they know. I am sure the investigate department has known for a while. They will not say anything of course until the investigation has concluded.
Ukraine hit Russian oil depots more frequently in the last couple of days. It really looks like the first stage of their counter attack. Weaken their logistics. The 2 sabotage acts on Russian railways also fit in that narrative. Russians also report attacks on a military airfield in Bryansk. I expect more to come in the next days and weeks.
Wait a second…
So Europe wasn’t trying to create domestic instability by reducing the supply of gas, which could have created anti-Ukraine sentiment and boosted the popularity of populists who undermine democratic institutions?
Well colour me shocked.
NS1 was blown up shortly after Germany announced they will stop the NS2 project because of the invasion. It's crystal clear, that Putin thought Germany depended so much on his gas, that he could drive a wedge between them and the rest of Europe by forcing them to open NS2. How is that not obvious?
NS2 was always criticized by the western world, so Putin thought he can force the project. In reverse, that's also the best reason why not US, Poland or Ukraine did it themselves. Because they would have risked exactly that scenario, that Germany opens NS2 and weakens the alliance. If they would have done it, then they would have blown up both streams. But only one was blown up, so the other had to be opened (by Russian logic).
NS2 was always criticized by the western world, so Putin thought he can force the project. In reverse, that's also the best reason why not US, Poland or Ukraine did it themselves. Because they would have risked exactly that scenario, that Germany opens NS2 and weakens the alliance. If they would have done it, then they would have blown up both streams. But only one was blown up, so the other had to be opened (by Russian logic).
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Apartment buildings 2.0?
Yea, as I said a week or so ago, I think Russia were preparing for this kind of false flag attack to justify further mobilisation. Looks like it is the case.
Yeah, they need more reasons for further mobilisation and probably a new terror wave against civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. Again, the only one who benefits from this kind of acts is Putin. If I were a russian citizen, I'd also avoid those 9th May parades. It'd be a perfect opportunity to agigate the people with a false flag.
"Ukraine attacks our peaceful celebrations of the great war our grandfathers died for. Here is your proof that they are Nazis!"
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How conveniently that someone filmed in the middle of the night the perfect angle of that attack, that only harmed the flag
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Seems legit...
Yeah, they need more reasons for further mobilisation and probably a new terror wave against civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. Again, the only one who benefits from this kind of acts is Putin. If I were a russian citizen, I'd also avoid those 9th May parades. It'd be a perfect opportunity to agigate the people with a false flag.
"Ukraine attacks our peaceful celebrations of the great war our grandfathers died for. Here is your proof that they are Nazis!"
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How conveniently that someone filmed in the middle of the night the perfect angle of that attack, that only harmed the flag
I actually find the filming bit legit since there are likely cameras all over the place in Moscow. Heck, they even filmed the Nemsov murder 8 years ago.
I know that there are many cameras, that's why I wrote about the perfect angle. Look at this video, what kind of camera would film exactly like that? You don't see the street, only a bit of the stands and otherwise just the wall and roof where the attack happened. Also as soon as the drone appeared, the camera moved a bit to the left for a better picture. So either it's some sophisticated radar camera or a person filmed this in the middle of the night.
Here we have a couple of Ukrainian nazis climbing the rooftops just before the explosion.
Ukrainians targeting evil Kremlin roof.
wtf
Did the Ukrainians have solid intel that Vlad was going to be on the Kremlin roof?
Annoying part is that the average russian probably buys this stuff.