Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Raoul said:
Hard to believe the Ukrainians and Moldovans haven't teamed up to boot the Russians out of Transnistria as well.

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Moldova does not have an army. Only on paper. Moldova gets rid of Transnistria if they unite with Romania.
 
jackal&hyde said:
Moldova does not have an army. Only on paper. Moldova gets rid of Transnistria if they unite with Romania.
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Surely the Ukrainians could do them a favor given that the Russians in Transnistria are more so police than battle hardened soldiers.
 
Raoul said:
Surely the Ukrainians could do them a favor given that the Russians in Transnistria are more so police than battle hardened soldiers.
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I hope so. If there is fire from there then I'm sure Ukraine would take notice and then so would Romania. This is why I think they do not, russian puppets or not, they are under an existential threat. People want to keep their office and benefits before anything. But I agree, they should be neutralized. The Ukrainians might be waiting for them to fire against Moldova so that Romania goes in to close on all sides.
 
The Firestarter said:
Somehow I doubt that. I think its literally very close to the actual lines if not behind them from time to time.
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I've not seen anything other than anonymous sources in mainstream media and Russian propaganda claim things like this, so I doubt.
 
Simbo said:
I've not seen anything other than anonymous sources in mainstream media and Russian propaganda claim things like this, so I doubt.
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Deployment of special operation units usually is not briefed, and "friendly" press that somehow gets wind of it is advised not to publish it. At least that's how I think it goes.
 
Zelenskyy himself confirmed the US' decision to support the jet coalition. Now the question is not if, but when Ukraine get those F-16. There were reports yesterday, that Ukrainian pilots could be trained on them in roughly 4 months.


That could influence and delay the counteroffensive. Why risk those new battalions now, if in less than 6 months you could support them with F-16s?
 
I read what’s in the newspapers everyday and it baffles me that Ukraine still hasn’t won the war. The press daily writes about the Russian incompetence and failed invasion.
I’ve seen the numbers of material losses and casualties it is immense, Ukraine keeps getting ammunition and modern weaponry while apparently the Russians only have updated old sovjet weapons. It seems the Russian army is nothing but a paper tiger with old weapons and no discipline.
To me it appears the Russian army could crumble at any moment. Especially now that their supposedly perfect modern rockets all get intercepted by Ukraine self defence.
So unless the press is exaggerating I fully expect this war to be over this year.

I’m looking forward to see the aftermath develop, what will happen with Russia and Putin? Will it splinter like Yugoslavia?
If it does I hope all the new nations won’t apply with UEFA, the European zone is already riddled with poor quality footballing nations as it is but that’s completely off topic :-p
 
Ragnar123 said:
That could influence and delay the counteroffensive. Why risk those new battalions now, if in less than 6 months you could support them with F-16s?
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I wouldn't think so. In 6 months you can always have another counter offensive, just before the winter. They should have already been prepared for the counter, I don't think they should risk having their stocks blown up by Russian missiles.
 
wangyu said:
I read what’s in the newspapers everyday and it baffles me that Ukraine still hasn’t won the war. The press daily writes about the Russian incompetence and failed invasion.
I’ve seen the numbers of material losses and casualties it is immense, Ukraine keeps getting ammunition and modern weaponry while apparently the Russians only have updated old sovjet weapons. It seems the Russian army is nothing but a paper tiger with old weapons and no discipline.
To me it appears the Russian army could crumble at any moment. Especially now that their supposedly perfect modern rockets all get intercepted by Ukraine self defence.
So unless the press is exaggerating I fully expect this war to be over this year.

I’m looking forward to see the aftermath develop, what will happen with Russia and Putin? Will it splinter like Yugoslavia?
If it does I hope all the new nations won’t apply with UEFA, the European zone is already riddled with poor quality footballing nations as it is but that’s completely off topic :-p
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Having a really big army of "soliders" to throw at the enemy, in addition to a lot of military vehicles(not always the highest quality, but sure has quantity) isn't defeated on the fly, you know?

Both can be true, Russia's army can be terrible, but a terrible army that is really, really, big, can take years to defeat.
 
wangyu said:
I read what’s in the newspapers everyday and it baffles me that Ukraine still hasn’t won the war. The press daily writes about the Russian incompetence and failed invasion.
I’ve seen the numbers of material losses and casualties it is immense, Ukraine keeps getting ammunition and modern weaponry while apparently the Russians only have updated old sovjet weapons. It seems the Russian army is nothing but a paper tiger with old weapons and no discipline.
To me it appears the Russian army could crumble at any moment. Especially now that their supposedly perfect modern rockets all get intercepted by Ukraine self defence.
So unless the press is exaggerating I fully expect this war to be over this year.

I’m looking forward to see the aftermath develop, what will happen with Russia and Putin? Will it splinter like Yugoslavia?
If it does I hope all the new nations won’t apply with UEFA, the European zone is already riddled with poor quality footballing nations as it is but that’s completely off topic :-p
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watch out, fellas. We've got a military expert here.
 
I deleted 3 posts because I have absolutely no intent of getting riled up and involved by immature posts again. Some people’s day only seems to be a success if they manage to ridicule other people. So to the people above, congratulations, you had your fun, I’m out.
 
wangyu said:
I read what’s in the newspapers everyday and it baffles me that Ukraine still hasn’t won the war. The press daily writes about the Russian incompetence and failed invasion.
I’ve seen the numbers of material losses and casualties it is immense, Ukraine keeps getting ammunition and modern weaponry while apparently the Russians only have updated old sovjet weapons. It seems the Russian army is nothing but a paper tiger with old weapons and no discipline.
To me it appears the Russian army could crumble at any moment. Especially now that their supposedly perfect modern rockets all get intercepted by Ukraine self defence.
So unless the press is exaggerating I fully expect this war to be over this year.

I’m looking forward to see the aftermath develop, what will happen with Russia and Putin? Will it splinter like Yugoslavia?
If it does I hope all the new nations won’t apply with UEFA, the European zone is already riddled with poor quality footballing nations as it is but that’s completely off topic :-p
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To be fair, I follow this a lot more closely than you and have a similar opinion sometimes. Given the panic we witnessed last week when Ukraine made a few small pushes around Bakhmut, it does give the impression Russian forces could crumble at the first sign of a major offensive and they are just waiting to be defeated.

However, the most precious asset for Ukraine is its people, which just happens to be the most expendable for Russia. Ukraine will bide its time and do this in the least costly and least risky way they can. It's possible they could make decisive moves this year to put an end to this, but don't hold your breath.
 
the hea said:
Yep seems like it's official now
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This was always going to happen.

It’s a bit like dating a girl, seeing how far you can go. First few dates it’s a snog and bum grab. A couple of weeks later you’re fisting her ass.
 
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wangyu said:
I deleted 3 posts because I have absolutely no intent of getting riled up and involved by immature posts again. Some people’s day only seems to be a success if they manage to ridicule other people. So to the people above, congratulations, you had your fun, I’m out.
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What? Look at my post, how was that meant to rile you up, or being offensive?

Was just a standard post, thats all.
 
The Firestarter said:
Deployment of special operation units usually is not briefed, and "friendly" press that somehow gets wind of it is advised not to publish it. At least that's how I think it goes.
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I agree, its just not something we can know either way and I prefer to ignore "friendly" press quoting anonymous sources who's editors are only employed to publish stories that get good clicks and views at the end of the day. Its too easy for them to bullshit, or at least publish rumours with no actual verification.
 
wangyu said:
I read what’s in the newspapers everyday and it baffles me that Ukraine still hasn’t won the war. The press daily writes about the Russian incompetence and failed invasion.
I’ve seen the numbers of material losses and casualties it is immense, Ukraine keeps getting ammunition and modern weaponry while apparently the Russians only have updated old sovjet weapons. It seems the Russian army is nothing but a paper tiger with old weapons and no discipline.
To me it appears the Russian army could crumble at any moment. Especially now that their supposedly perfect modern rockets all get intercepted by Ukraine self defence.
So unless the press is exaggerating I fully expect this war to be over this year.

I’m looking forward to see the aftermath develop, what will happen with Russia and Putin? Will it splinter like Yugoslavia?
If it does I hope all the new nations won’t apply with UEFA, the European zone is already riddled with poor quality footballing nations as it is but that’s completely off topic :-p
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The Russian army is definitely not the second army in the world that they drumed them self up to be before the war and they are not performing to the standards most experts expected from them but neither are they a paper tiger.
They have a massive amount of tanks, artillery, rocket launchers, AA systems, standoff weapons, electronic warfare systems etc available to them and some of these sytems are very advanced and well working, others maybe not so good.
The main reason they failed early on is because they where unable to conduct high maneuver combined arms operations but they learned their leason and adapted to a more slow attrition based tactic which has made the battlefield much more even.

If you want to read more about the Russian capabilities and tactics and how they have changed in the last year this excelent analysis was released today by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies.
https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf
 
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I agree with @wangyu in the point that the media is so skewed that I doubt that there is much truth on what they say. Then @Ragnar123 "will notice me" and will insinuate that I don't support Ukraine. All the western media only say inflated numbers of how good Ukraine is doing and how bad russia is doing. Guess what, Russia is doing the same and is accused from the west to manipulate russians, guess what, they do the same.

In my opinion, truth lays in the middle and hopefully a bit towards Ukraine truth side because I believe there is still freedom of press in the west at least more than in russsia and you can catch some reality. But if we read all we had been fed (Russia stocks would not last 2 months at the beginning, Putin will not dare to a mobilization, Ukranian winter clothes are much better and they will be able to advance in winter, etc...), it would seem that russia has no chance but there it is with its territories invaded. Don't get me wrong, Ukraine had done an amazing feat holding how it did till now and I am wholeheartedly hope for a very successful counterattack. But this doesn't change the fact that there is so much propaganda in the conflict that in a way I understand because is another war weapon for the morale. And if it works to get a high morale among the ukranian troops and helps them to die less and reconquer more territory so be it. But certainly, there are many untruth on the media in this conflicts and certainly data about how ukraine is performing that they don't tell us.
 
4bars said:
I agree with @wangyu in the point that the media is so skewed that I doubt that there is much truth on what they say. Then @Ragnar123 "will notice me" and will insinuate that I don't support Ukraine. All the western media only say inflated numbers of how good Ukraine is doing and how bad russia is doing. Guess what, Russia is doing the same and is accused from the west to manipulate russians, guess what, they do the same.

In my opinion, truth lays in the middle and hopefully a bit towards Ukraine truth side because I believe there is still freedom of press in the west at least more than in russsia and you can catch some reality. But if we read all we had been fed (Russia stocks would not last 2 months at the beginning, Putin will not dare to a mobilization, Ukranian winter clothes are much better and they will be able to advance in winter, etc...), it would seem that russia has no chance but there it is with its territories invaded. Don't get me wrong, Ukraine had done an amazing feat holding how it did till now and I am wholeheartedly hope for a very successful counterattack. But this doesn't change the fact that there is so much propaganda in the conflict that in a way I understand because is another war weapon for the morale. And if it works to get a high morale among the ukranian troops and helps them to die less and reconquer more territory so be it. But certainly, there are many untruth on the media in this conflicts and certainly data about how ukraine is performing that they don't tell us.
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It seems to me your whole framing of this is a bit odd. The media can interview experts. These experts give their analysis. That analysis can turn out to be wrong. And often it is wrong, because war is quite chaotic and unpredictable. But the point remains: the media can and will interview experts, that is their job.

And as far as I can tell, very few pretend to be all-wise. Most are cautious, and acknowledge Ukraine's weaknesses and remaining Russian strengths, and coming challenges for the Ukrainian military.

I also don't really see these inflated numbers other than from the Ukrainians. Estimates from Western officials, as reported in the media, tend to be more conservative than what the Ukrainians report.

I do sympathize with the argument that problems in the Russian military might get over-exaggerated to the point that people believe Russia will crumble any day now. For example, I don't doubt there are morale problems in the Russian army. But we are still seeing many Russian soldiers fight to the death so don't expect half of the Russian military to desert or some shit like that. That's not gonna happen.
 
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VorZakone said:
It seems to me your whole framing of this is a bit odd. The media can interview experts. These experts give their analysis. That analysis can turn out to be wrong. And often it is wrong, because war is quite chaotic and unpredictable. But the point remains: the media can and will interview experts, that is their job.

And as far as I can tell, very few pretend to be all-wise. Most are cautious, and acknowledge Ukraine's weaknesses and remaining Russian strengths, and coming challenges for the Ukrainian military.

I also don't really see these inflated numbers other than from the Ukrainians. Estimates from Western officials, as reported in the media, tend to be more conservative than what the Ukrainians report.

I do sympathize with the argument that problems in the Russian military might get over-exaggerated to the point that people believe Russia will crumble any day now. For example, I don't doubt there are morale problems in the Russian army. But we are still seeing many Russian soldiers fight to the death so don't expect half of the Russian military to desert or some shit like that. That's not gonna happen.
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I understand that experts give their analysis and they can fail on them. Specially in something so complex as a war and with its fog but IMO there is too much assertiveness in those and in my selfishness i get frustrated because i really want ukraine to win. And full me one is on me but full me twice is n me and i have grown too distrustful in the media more than experts because is the media that with a megafone + ecochamber without triple checking they give voice to the article/opinion that suits best the narrative to ukraine is nailing it and russia sucks while no giving much attention the ones that are reasonably weary being experts themselves.

I aknowledge that is my problem, but i take with a pinch of salt what i see in this conflict and in the end your last parragraf is the tone where i agree with but i have the feeling that many people think that its a given that ukraine will steamroll russia at some point and i blame the news/social media narrative and if it doesnt, what? Frustration = less support for ukraine
 
4bars said:
I agree with @wangyu in the point that the media is so skewed that I doubt that there is much truth on what they say. Then @Ragnar123 "will notice me" and will insinuate that I don't support Ukraine. All the western media only say inflated numbers of how good Ukraine is doing and how bad russia is doing. Guess what, Russia is doing the same and is accused from the west to manipulate russians, guess what, they do the same.

In my opinion, truth lays in the middle and hopefully a bit towards Ukraine truth side because I believe there is still freedom of press in the west at least more than in russsia and you can catch some reality. But if we read all we had been fed (Russia stocks would not last 2 months at the beginning, Putin will not dare to a mobilization, Ukranian winter clothes are much better and they will be able to advance in winter, etc...), it would seem that russia has no chance but there it is with its territories invaded. Don't get me wrong, Ukraine had done an amazing feat holding how it did till now and I am wholeheartedly hope for a very successful counterattack. But this doesn't change the fact that there is so much propaganda in the conflict that in a way I understand because is another war weapon for the morale. And if it works to get a high morale among the ukranian troops and helps them to die less and reconquer more territory so be it. But certainly, there are many untruth on the media in this conflicts and certainly data about how ukraine is performing that they don't tell us.
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To be fair, most of us only have access to the side that continues to feed us positive and uplifting news. What annoys me is that some posters would come in and post about how UA has been trained to become a NATO-standard army and equipped fully with NATO weapons after 10 months into the war. Then there is stuff like how RA could not get more men or their supplies would run out in a few months, which was months ago, etc. When you challenge them because you know that is not what is happening, you get told that you believe the Kremlin propaganda.

The RA troops are bad, and numbers alone cannot win the war, etc., yet that number is keeping them alive in this. My focus is usually drawn to what the UA is up to and how adept they have become at repelling all of these human wave attacks. They were not exactly great in the beginning (not as bad as the RA) for obvious reasons. They are getting better and so are RA troops up to some level. The RA has made it clear that they will not stop till their casualty rate exceeds what it is currently. It'll be bloody for some time yet, and I hope UA is prepared and has enough equipment (and support because Trump, 2024, budget bla bla). We just have to ignore the rest of the stuff that people, including experts, spout on a regular basis.
 
The United said:
To be fair, most of us only have access to the side that continues to feed us positive and uplifting news. What annoys me is that some posters would come in and post about how UA has been trained to become a NATO-standard army and equipped fully with NATO weapons after 10 months into the war. Then there is stuff like how RA could not get more men or their supplies would run out in a few months, which was months ago, etc. When you challenge them because you know that is not what is happening, you get told that you believe the Kremlin propaganda.

The RA troops are bad, and numbers alone cannot win the war, etc., yet that number is keeping them alive in this. My focus is usually drawn to what the UA is up to and how adept they have become at repelling all of these human wave attacks. They were not exactly great in the beginning (not as bad as the RA) for obvious reasons. They are getting better and so are RA troops up to some level. The RA has made it clear that they will not stop till their casualty rate exceeds what it is currently. It'll be bloody for some time yet, and I hope UA is prepared and has enough equipment (and support because Trump, 2024, budget bla bla). We just have to ignore the rest of the stuff that people, including experts, spout on a regular basis.
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I have a similar view and sentiment. Some people thinks that on not believing the media you dont want to ukraine to win
 
Fecking hell on earth. How they're still holding on is beyond my comprehension.
 
Ragnar123 said:
That could influence and delay the counteroffensive. Why risk those new battalions now, if in less than 6 months you could support them with F-16s?
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I think you are being a bit to optimistic with the 6 months, countries agreeing to start the training of pilots is a good start but it's only a first step and there is still a lot of things that needs to be solved.

Where are the planes comming from?

Where are the spare parts comming from? I think this will be a major issue, fighter jets go through a shit ton of spare parts and with the F-16 being one of the most commonly used jets in the world today there is already a very high demand for spare parts.

Mechanichs training. This is probably a bigger task than retraining current Ukrainian MIG and Sukhoi pilots to operate f-16's.

Ground support crew training.

Airfield infrastruture. Ukraines old Soviet era planes are designed to operate from much harsher conditions compared to most western fighters who require long and smooth surfaces for their take offs and landings. Will Ukraine be able to improve their airfields to be able to operate F-16's and will they be able to protect them? These improved airfield will become high priority targets for Russia and even one cruise missile hit to an airstrip could ground a large part of the fleet for a long time.

Secure communications between aircrews and groundpersonal needs to be put in place and a way for their new western fighters to communicate with the older Soviet planes needs to be implamented.

If they are to be used in a ground attack role JTACs need to be trained and secure communications between them and the aircrews needs to be made available.

Now all of this is possible but to me 6 months sounds a litle to optimistic.
 
the hea said:
I think you are being a bit to optimistic with the 6 months, countries agreeing to start the training of pilots is a good start but it's only a first step and there is still a lot of things that needs to be solved.

Where are the planes comming from?

Where are the spare parts comming from? I think this will be a major issue, fighter jets go through a shit ton of spare parts and with the F-16 being one of the most commonly used jets in the world today there is already a very high demand for spare parts.

Mechanichs training. This is probably a bigger task than retraining current Ukrainian MIG and Sukhoi pilots to operate f-16's.

Ground support crew training.

Airfield infrastruture. Ukraines old Soviet era planes are designed to operate from much harsher conditions compared to most western fighters who require long and smooth surfaces for their take offs and landings. Will Ukraine be able to improve their airfields to be able to operate F-16's and will they be able to protect them? These improved airfield will become high priority targets for Russia and even one cruise missile hit to an airstrip could ground a large part of the fleet for a long time.

Secure communications between aircrews and groundpersonal needs to be put in place and a way for their new western fighters to communicate with the older Soviet planes needs to be implamented.

If they are to be used in a ground attack role JTACs need to be trained and secure communications between them and the aircrews needs to be made available.

Now all of this is possible but to me 6 months sounds a litle to optimistic.
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This is all correct, I just think that they’ve been sorting all this out for the last few months anyway. The announcement isn’t the beginning, it’s towards the end of the process.

The biggest fear is that the air fields will get blown up by Russia. I think what we’ve been seeing is a deliberate strategy of giving certain weapons in certain order, in the hope the UA can contain Russia for as long as possible. No point giving 4th gen fighters if Ukraine has no air defence.

This is all following a timeline, the bluster is all noise.
 
Spark said:
This is all correct, I just think that they’ve been sorting all this out for the last few months anyway. The announcement isn’t the beginning, it’s towards the end of the process.
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I hope so and it doesn't make sense to remove some of Ukraines much needed pilots from the battle for training unless fighters are on the way.
Maybe it's just me being overly pessimistic but remembering the problems the US had with keeping the F16's given to Iraq flying I think some pessimism regarding that timeframe is warranted.
 
Ive been hopping on planes from UK airports in last few days and there has been a noticably large amount of groups of 3 Ukrainian men, casually dressed in sportswear and only having hand luggage, travelling out to eastern European destinations on scheduled flights.

They all look to be in tremendous spirits and are trying to blend in with other tourists....might be some interesting developments in the next few days.
 
the hea said:
I hope so and it doesn't make sense to remove some of Ukraines much needed pilots from the battle for training unless fighters are on the way.
Maybe it's just me being overly pessimistic but remembering the problems the US had with keeping the F16's given to Iraq flying I think some pessimism regarding that timeframe is warranted.
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Yeah totally and everything is done against the backdrop of internal politics - split across every single nation supporting Ukraine. So it’s a clusterfeck.

However, one thing the allied nations have done surprisingly well since Jan 2022 is control the narrative and build a trustful coalition expertly. From dropping the intel that Russia was going to invade, to then arranging sanctions (while not perfect, still far more impressive than anything that could have been expected before the war), to arranging military aid, to NATO standard MANPADS, HIMARS, air defence, tanks and now storm shadow and seemingly F16s - they’ve consistently delivered everything to roughly the same timeline. I.e. first it gets spoken about, then denied, then bounced about until eventually it’s approved. The whole purpose of that charade - in my opinion (maybe giving them too much credit, but it would make sense) is to a) “boil the frog” i.e. make it totally natural to the world and to Russia by the time it’s delivered and b) give time to sort strategy, tactics, training and logistics. The US will have wanted Ukraine to have F16s 10 years ago, they’ve just waited until the moment they consider right - which is now.

This won’t be the end either. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if we’re onto submarines by 2025. Ukraine will be a significant European military power - probably rivalling Turkey - extremely soon. Once the war is over it’ll make the black sea and potentially the caucuses very interesting.
 
Seems like Wagner has finally taken Bakhmut after destroying every house in the city. Let's see how long they are able to live in the rubble until the counteroffensive will push them out again. The worst "win" in a war I can think of right now. Wasted tens of thousands of men and huge amount of ammunition and equipment in a 1 year long battle and made that city uninhabitable in the process.
This shows perfectly what kind of a country russia is. They neither care for their own people, nor for the people they want to "liberate". All they do is turning civilization into a wasteland.

 
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the hea said:
I think you are being a bit to optimistic with the 6 months, countries agreeing to start the training of pilots is a good start but it's only a first step and there is still a lot of things that needs to be solved.
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Let's see. According to Ukrainian M.o.D they'll get them this fall. The timing is also very favourable right now, because many countries exchange their F-16 for the F-35. I'm sure there will be enough jets available for purchase.
 
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