Oh it will, in a few years if the trend continues. I give you a very simple scenario: Russia will test Nato 5 article on its eastern flank once Trump gets US out of NATO if he gets into power again, and then most of European countries by default get into a war with Russia with cities being subject to missile strikes.But that's not going to happen. So here we are.
Oh it will, in a few years if the trend continues.
Not if it undermines it (NATO/EU) from within via propaganda machine and corrupt right wing parties / officials which will dominate European politics in the next few years. Also, NATO without US backing is not all that at the moment, barely able to supply anything in good quantity currently. The industrial military complex is on its knees in Europe.No attacking a poor country in Ukraine, which has already incurred very heavy losses on the Russian military is something else than attacking countries which are part of the most powerful military alliance in history.
Not if it undermines it (NATO/EU) from within via propaganda machine and corrupt right wing parties / officials which will dominate European politics in the next few years. Also, NATO without US backing is not all that at the moment, barely able to supply anything in good quantity currently. The industrial military complex is on its knees in Europe.
Oh, Russia will be preparing the next 5-10 years for a total war, they have already switched to a war economy and as history shows it’s not something you can reverse on a start-stop basis, they’re already building up and preparing for another war as they believe they’re at a war with the western world order.If Russia start launching rockets at european capitals without going total war I'll buy you pint. Or send you a tenner anyway.
Oh, Russia will be preparing the next 5-10 years for a total war, they have already switched to a war economy and as history shows it’s not something you can reverse on a start-stop basis, they’re already building up and preparing for another war as they believe they’re at a war with the western world order.
Apart from getting everything right when it comes to Russia well in advance? How can you say that with zero arguments to back it up? He’s also not suggesting to get into direct confrontation right now, just supply Ukraine with everything to stop this today. Seems like you’re actually missing the whole point that direct confrontation is in fact gonna come if Russia receives no pushback.Yeah Russia is going in to wartime economy because they are actually at war and failed all their main objectives and have taken a proper beating from a far inferior foe. I honestly don't think Kasparov is all that lucid, he's itching for nuclear powers at peace to into direct confrontation with another nuclear power something everyone is grateful was avoided during the cold war.
Apart from getting everything right when it comes to Russia well in advance? How can you say that with zero arguments to back it up? He’s also not suggesting to get into direct confrontation right now, just supply Ukraine with everything to stop this today. Seems like you’re actually missing the whole point that direct confrontation is in fact gonna come if Russia receives no pushback.
This is exactly the line Putin is taking and how he perceives the west - weak. Next it will be NATO country and he bets on precisely this sentiment again, what will change fundamentally if it will be Helsinki or Tallinn as opposed to Kyiv or Lviv? He bets that in order to avoid direct confrontation the west will deter itself again and will allow him to do another land grab.Kasparov said this as far back as 2015 on the invasion back then.
Im a fan of his. Its just, it would escalate to a far more dangerous situation than it was or is for the countries not directly involved. When push comes to shove nobody is looking at any other than Nato countries because banana republics certainly isnt who look to for military help.
As of this moment, but with no huge external military and financial support, this could go south very quickly and the scenario I contemplated will become a real possibility in the near future while European democracies will be in disarray after decades long propaganda and corruption schemes will yield the results the Kremlin wants. In a few years it will be Le Pen in France, you already have multiple Kremlin friendly mostly right wingers in Slovakia and Hungary, Trump in US, etc.You don't just do a land grab. You'll have to fight the local population and/or occupy them, and this will increase the pressure on Russia's economy. War is costly. Ukraine is already too big a hurdle for the Russians as of this moment.
This is exactly the line Putin is taking and how he perceives the west - weak. Next it will be NATO country and he bets on precisely this sentiment again, what will change fundamentally if it will be Helsinki or Tallinn as opposed to Kyiv or Lviv? He bets that in order to avoid direct confrontation the west will deter itself again and will allow him to do another land grab.
I also don't believe it will happen, but to be honest most were saying there was no chance putin would attack ukraine. Now we have lavrov saying moldova might be next. History tells us some leaders are very rational until the day they aren't and everything goes to shit.I simply dont know how to have a conversation with someone who thinks that Nato is a mute point. If that alliance isnt honored it falls apart. I dont think in any real scenario that will happen. You seem to do. Ill revisit when Russia invades a Nato member.
NATO is strong now as a unit, but we’re just a few steps away from it being a mute point as you call it due to the amount of Kremlin friendly politicians being on the rise now in US/Europe.I simply dont know how to have a conversation with someone who thinks that Nato is a mute point. If that alliance isnt honored it falls apart. I dont think in any real scenario that will happen. You seem to do. Ill revisit when Russia invades a Nato member.
Also a lot of people seem to think there's no chance trump will win. If he does, it might be the end of "normal" america in terms of geopolitics. Will trump give two shits about latvia or taiwan?
I also don't believe it will happen, but to be honest most were saying there was no chance putin would attack ukraine. Now we have lavrov saying moldova might be next. History tells us some leaders are very rational until the day they aren't and everything goes to shit.
Also a lot of people seem to think there's no chance trump will win. If he does, it might be the end of "normal" america in terms of geopolitics. Will trump give two shits about latvia or taiwan?
NATO is strong now as a unit, but we’re just a few steps away from it being a mute point as you call it due to the amount of Kremlin friendly politicians being on the rise now in US/Europe.
This is exactly the line Putin is taking and how he perceives the west - weak. Next it will be NATO country and he bets on precisely this sentiment again, what will change fundamentally if it will be Helsinki or Tallinn as opposed to Kyiv or Lviv? He bets that in order to avoid direct confrontation the west will deter itself again and will allow him to do another land grab.
Nah.Only after the Russian missiles will start raining down on European capitals maybe people will wake the feck up. Putin is openly at war with European democratic order but the governments still refuse to act accordingly.
Yes, I think I do. I know, for example, that this war did not begin on February 24th 2022. I know that if you go to Victoria "F*ck the EU" Nuland's Wikipedia page (I don't know how to post images here), you will see that the 2nd picture on the right was taken on February 1st 2014...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Nuland
It shows her (the architect of Euromaidan) and John Kerry sitting opposite Petro Poroshenko, Arseniy Yatesenyuk and Vitaliy Klitschko (notice how the 3 Ukrainians have their heads dutifully bowed, not even any pens and paper in front of them, while their American handlers are giving them their orders). And then, almost 4 months later, by an absolutely startling coincidence, 'the Ukrainian people' "democratically elected" Petro Poroshenko to be their president, Arseniy Yatsenyuk to be their Prime Minister, and Vitali Klitschko to be the mayor of Kiev (amazing how often America perfectly predicts who is going to win 'free and fair elections' months in advance isn't it?).
I know that Poroshenko's successor (the West's new Winston Churchill) is a project of Ihor Kolomoiskiy (the founder and main sponsor of Azov Battalion). Someone asked me earlier in the thread why I always put the name 'Zelenskiy' in quotes when referring to policy. It's because he is nobody in this situation. He makes no decisions and has no input on anything that matters. His only 2 orders from his handlers in Washington and London are: 1) never, under any circumstances, and no matter how much pressure you find yourself under, remove your little green military T-shirt. And 2) never, we repeat NEVER, shave off your little beard. You are a warrior. You are a fighter. You are our new Action Man figure.
Oh yeah, and I know that the new paragon of Western values is as corrupt as they come:
https://www.theguardian.com/news/20...dent-offshore-connections-volodymyr-zelenskiy
So yeah, I know that this is not a fight between autocracy and democracy, it is an incredibly complex situation that gets reduced to "good v evil and that's all there is to it!" for a dumb mass audience whose reading ability extends no further than a tweet thread.
Further, I know that most of the people in this thread who are salivating at the thought of all these new lovely weapons coming to Ukraine are doing so not because they care about Ukraine but because this war is a video game to them. It's entertainment (on more than one occasion I've wanted to post the link to donate to Ukraine to see who puts their money where their mouth is). Their support of America's and the UK's strategy of "let the Ukrainians die as slowly as possible so as to weaken Russia as much as possible" is not out of concern for Ukrainians, it's out of concern for having more and more war to watch.
I know that the EU did not prepare for the possibility of this war dragging on the way that it has, and this is going to cost them a catastrophic amount. The EU was extremely bold and aggressive in their sanctions against Russia, believing (they directly stated this) that it would cripple the Russian economy and therefore the Russian war machine within 3 months. A minor timing issue with disastrous consequences. Now they are in a position where they cannot admit the sanctions are not working and so are just going to keep on driving over the cliff, with unelected morons (von der Leyen, Borrell, Michel et al) doing the driving. They'll be fine, they'll parachute out of it all in a couple of years and retire to their Swiss lakes, hell they may even hook up with Kolomoiyskiy and Zelenskiy while they're there. Russia never said this war would be over in days, weeks or months. They gave no timeline. It was THE WEST that gave timelines, based on famously and repeatedly bad analysis (remember when the same people predicted the Afghan army would hold off the Taliban for more than 6 days?). It is not Russia who miscalculated the timeline of this war, it is the West, which is why they are now crippling themselves economically. Their massive sanctions were based on the premise that it would be over by now. They did not foresee Ukraine needing 10 billion dollars a month (and rising) only to stay afloat.
Finally, I know that for every post you can find from Ukrainians who are not actually fighting the war saying that they have all the people and 'will' needed to fight if only they get WEAPONS WEAPONS WEAPONS!, you can find a hundred more from Ukrainian men aged 18 to 60 who are desperate for 'Zelenskiy' to lift the ban on their fleeing the country (if Ukrainians are so ready and willing to die for the West's freedom, why have all Ukrainian men been forbidden from leaving the country since February 25th?). Last week 'Zelenskiy' told Poland to send back any men aged 18 to 60 who fled as refugees by June 27th. His plan is to put guns in their hands and send them to "die for the world's freedom".
Those are the things I know. What I believe (but naturally don't know) is that Ukraine can't win this war. Everyone (Johnson mainly) who says they can refuses to define 'win' in this context. Pushing Russia out of Donbas and/or Crimea? It will never happen, and they know it. "Destroying the Russian army" as Kasparov said in that tweet posted yesterday? Idiotic. Ukraine's fully mobilised army is being decimated by Russia's peacetime army. I also believe that Putin has no intention of invading any other country. He explicitly stated his aims in his speech before the invasion. "If we cede territory to Putin now, he will come for Poland next!" is absolutely divorced from any kind of understanding of WHY Putin invaded Ukraine in the first place ("Because he hates democracy!" - idiotic understanding of this war).
Zelenskiy''s handlers in DC and London need to send him to the negotiating table now. Otherwise, all that will happen from here on is more dead Ukrainians, more dead 'orcs', more of an economically crippled EU, more Boris Johnson pretending to care about Ukrainians (he doesn't, he needs a geopolitical friend because he has none), and more of the West stupidly pushing one stated rival (Russia) further and further into the arms of their other stated rival (China).
I've said my piece. Back to the tweets of what weapons are being sent alongside salivating emojis. But before I go, here is the link to donate to Ukrainians:
https://donate.unhcr.org/int/en/ukraine-emergency
Frankly I don't know how anyone can spend a week sunning themselves on a Greek island when Ukrainians are dying for your freedom. That money could have helped so many Ukrainians.
I wonder what's Kolomoisky is up to... arresting yourself by the hands of your own "project" is a proper 3-d chess move.Brilliant post - pretty much spot on.
Brilliant post - pretty much spot on.
Do you get joy out of this? Does it make you happy to see Russia terrorizing its neighbour? Never mind that the post you quoted is hardly brilliant.Brilliant post - pretty much spot on.
Lsdffsdfsdmao whoever just brought this post on - thank you! That's comedy gold, guess his money from Moscow just came over.Yes, I think I do. I know, for example, that this war did not begin on February 24th 2022. I know that if you go to Victoria "F*ck the EU" Nuland's Wikipedia page (I don't know how to post images here), you will see that the 2nd picture on the right was taken on February 1st 2014...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victoria_Nuland
It shows her (the architect of Euromaidan) and John Kerry sitting opposite Petro Poroshenko, Arseniy Yatesenyuk and Vitaliy Klitschko (notice how the 3 Ukrainians have their heads dutifully bowed, not even any pens and paper in front of them, while their American handlers are giving them their orders). And then, almost 4 months later, by an absolutely startling coincidence, 'the Ukrainian people' "democratically elected" Petro Poroshenko to be their president, Arseniy Yatsenyuk to be their Prime Minister, and Vitali Klitschko to be the mayor of Kiev (amazing how often America perfectly predicts who is going to win 'free and fair elections' months in advance isn't it?).
I know that Poroshenko's successor (the West's new Winston Churchill) is a project of Ihor Kolomoiskiy (the founder and main sponsor of Azov Battalion). Someone asked me earlier in the thread why I always put the name 'Zelenskiy' in quotes when referring to policy. It's because he is nobody in this situation. He makes no decisions and has no input on anything that matters. His only 2 orders from his handlers in Washington and London are: 1) never, under any circumstances, and no matter how much pressure you find yourself under, remove your little green military T-shirt. And 2) never, we repeat NEVER, shave off your little beard. You are a warrior. You are a fighter. You are our new Action Man figure.
Oh yeah, and I know that the new paragon of Western values is as corrupt as they come:
https://www.theguardian.com/news/20...dent-offshore-connections-volodymyr-zelenskiy
So yeah, I know that this is not a fight between autocracy and democracy, it is an incredibly complex situation that gets reduced to "good v evil and that's all there is to it!" for a dumb mass audience whose reading ability extends no further than a tweet thread.
Further, I know that most of the people in this thread who are salivating at the thought of all these new lovely weapons coming to Ukraine are doing so not because they care about Ukraine but because this war is a video game to them. It's entertainment (on more than one occasion I've wanted to post the link to donate to Ukraine to see who puts their money where their mouth is). Their support of America's and the UK's strategy of "let the Ukrainians die as slowly as possible so as to weaken Russia as much as possible" is not out of concern for Ukrainians, it's out of concern for having more and more war to watch.
I know that the EU did not prepare for the possibility of this war dragging on the way that it has, and this is going to cost them a catastrophic amount. The EU was extremely bold and aggressive in their sanctions against Russia, believing (they directly stated this) that it would cripple the Russian economy and therefore the Russian war machine within 3 months. A minor timing issue with disastrous consequences. Now they are in a position where they cannot admit the sanctions are not working and so are just going to keep on driving over the cliff, with unelected morons (von der Leyen, Borrell, Michel et al) doing the driving. They'll be fine, they'll parachute out of it all in a couple of years and retire to their Swiss lakes, hell they may even hook up with Kolomoiyskiy and Zelenskiy while they're there. Russia never said this war would be over in days, weeks or months. They gave no timeline. It was THE WEST that gave timelines, based on famously and repeatedly bad analysis (remember when the same people predicted the Afghan army would hold off the Taliban for more than 6 days?). It is not Russia who miscalculated the timeline of this war, it is the West, which is why they are now crippling themselves economically. Their massive sanctions were based on the premise that it would be over by now. They did not foresee Ukraine needing 10 billion dollars a month (and rising) only to stay afloat.
Finally, I know that for every post you can find from Ukrainians who are not actually fighting the war saying that they have all the people and 'will' needed to fight if only they get WEAPONS WEAPONS WEAPONS!, you can find a hundred more from Ukrainian men aged 18 to 60 who are desperate for 'Zelenskiy' to lift the ban on their fleeing the country (if Ukrainians are so ready and willing to die for the West's freedom, why have all Ukrainian men been forbidden from leaving the country since February 25th?). Last week 'Zelenskiy' told Poland to send back any men aged 18 to 60 who fled as refugees by June 27th. His plan is to put guns in their hands and send them to "die for the world's freedom".
Those are the things I know. What I believe (but naturally don't know) is that Ukraine can't win this war. Everyone (Johnson mainly) who says they can refuses to define 'win' in this context. Pushing Russia out of Donbas and/or Crimea? It will never happen, and they know it. "Destroying the Russian army" as Kasparov said in that tweet posted yesterday? Idiotic. Ukraine's fully mobilised army is being decimated by Russia's peacetime army. I also believe that Putin has no intention of invading any other country. He explicitly stated his aims in his speech before the invasion. "If we cede territory to Putin now, he will come for Poland next!" is absolutely divorced from any kind of understanding of WHY Putin invaded Ukraine in the first place ("Because he hates democracy!" - idiotic understanding of this war).
Zelenskiy''s handlers in DC and London need to send him to the negotiating table now. Otherwise, all that will happen from here on is more dead Ukrainians, more dead 'orcs', more of an economically crippled EU, more Boris Johnson pretending to care about Ukrainians (he doesn't, he needs a geopolitical friend because he has none), and more of the West stupidly pushing one stated rival (Russia) further and further into the arms of their other stated rival (China).
I've said my piece. Back to the tweets of what weapons are being sent alongside salivating emojis. But before I go, here is the link to donate to Ukrainians:
https://donate.unhcr.org/int/en/ukraine-emergency
Frankly I don't know how anyone can spend a week sunning themselves on a Greek island when Ukrainians are dying for your freedom. That money could have helped so many Ukrainians.
Some people have gone so far down the "russia is really strong, they'll eventually win" path, that their need to be right about it tramples all the rest.Do you get joy out of this? Does it make you happy to see Russia terrorizing its neighbour? Never mind that the post you quoted is hardly brilliant.
Do you get joy out of this? Does it make you happy to see Russia terrorizing its neighbour? Never mind that the post you quoted is hardly brilliant.
There is for sure many politicians who would sell their soul for oil money, but giving up on Nato would be something else. The reason why the republicans are hindering aid for Ukraine is because their base approves of opposing whatever the dems do.
Trumps pee tapes are definitely real so there is that.
There is going be a book about this at some point with the title "When pee tapes changed the world."
It's not a perspective, it's literally the points that Russian propaganda translates (internally and to the outside world) almost word by word. Points that have been debunked myriad times.This is such a bizarre post, I don't know if it merits a serious response.
@DT12 does add much needed perspective on this thread, and I'm just pointing that out.
Wouldn't Trump need Congress to to exit NATO?
Though, with how spineless congressional republicans are, they might go along with it if dear leader says so.
Yes...so it would depend on an eventual win of trumo and a +50% congress. Not unlikely. He had that already
Doesn't help that Romney, one of the few who stood up to MAGA, is retiring.
No one worth taking seriously pretends that Ukraine is a bastion of corruption-free utopia. But it's also not really relevant. Because Ukraine has corruption issues, it's fine for Putin to invade? Is that the argument here? Ukraine sucks, so let's throw it to Putin? Putin, one of the biggest international crooks out there, turning Russia more and more totalitarian? Besides, Kolomoisky has been arrested. The "much needed" perspective by @DT12 left that part out.This is such a bizarre post, I don't know if it merits a serious response.
@DT12 does add much needed perspective on this thread, and I'm just pointing that out.
That's the fate of everyone who stood up to MAGA. They were either primaried, or they retired because they knew they were going to get primaried. Some might have slipped through the cracks, but the GOP is well and truly the party of Trump now. And last time showed that a loss is just going to make them even more Trumpy.
I'm not sure I see a way out of Trumpism for them either, after they rejected the best chance they're ever going get in the immediate wake of Trump losing as an incumbent and then Jan 6th. I genuinely thought that was the end of Trump, but the pathetic weasels who initially made moves against him (like Lindsey Graham, the old feck) then pathetically weaseled their way back in immediately after.
Yeah but what would you know about russian propaganda?It's not a perspective, it's literally the points that Russian propaganda translates (internally and to the outside world) almost word by word. Points that have been debunked myriad times.
Doesn't help that Romney, one of the few who stood up to MAGA, is retiring.
Probably gonna get replaced by another Yes-man.
Would it need 50 or 60 votes?
Love the part about believing Putin wont invade any other country after Ukraine because he said so.Lsdffsdfsdmao whoever just brought this post on - thank you! That's comedy gold, guess his money from Moscow just came over.
Love the part about believing Putin wont invade any other country after Ukraine because he said so.
