Good article in Nature about what the future might look like.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
The latest data still shows it above it, but I would expect it to be under by the next update of data. The time this takes will determine how quickly society opens back up again, and falls in line with the expected date of May for hospitality. At some point there will be a crossing point of the data of hospitalisation/death rates with the higher risk age groups of the vaccine. Back to the original point I think using case rates as a judgement for reopening society quicker is probably the wrong metric to look at.
How can our government be so bad at organising things? An excerpt from somebody arriving on a plane to go to into a quarantine hotel
"On board the plane from Madrid I was sitting with people who had not been in a high-risk country. When we arrived, I had to board a crowded transit shuttle to the terminal. It was absolutely packed with people, some from high-risk countries, others from lower risk. It is a frustrating system, it doesn't follow logic."
Also, of course they're like prisons in the sense you're not allowed out of the room. That's the whole point of them, although we do seem to be allowing people out for a bit to get fresh air.
Quarantine hotel rooms are 'like a prison' - BBC News
"On board the plane from Madrid I was sitting with people who had not been in a high-risk country. When we arrived, I had to board a crowded transit shuttle to the terminal. It was absolutely packed with people, some from high-risk countries, others from lower risk. It is a frustrating system, it doesn't follow logic."
Also, of course they're like prisons in the sense you're not allowed out of the room. That's the whole point of them, although we do seem to be allowing people out for a bit to get fresh air.
Quarantine hotel rooms are 'like a prison' - BBC News
Stop fkin travelling, simple
Boris to make announcement today? What do we reckon?
Hopefully schools beginning of March, still hoping we get the pubs back for Easter.
Hopefully schools beginning of March, still hoping we get the pubs back for Easter.
I think I've had it in January, 4 days of 38+C fever, then 5th day no more fever but I lost smell, which I got back 10 days later. So nothing that severe, didn't test, just isolated and stayed home, but might've been good old C-19.
He's making an announcement on Monday with regards to the opening of society back up the next few months.
Got a phone call from United today, basically saying nothing is happening and would I like my money back (from the last couple of games of the 19/20 season) As they said back in December he also confirmed that if they're allowed to, they'll have some fans back on a match ticket basis by the end of the season, but they aren't assuming/predicting anything.
I do think United have acted with some dignity during the epidemic - keeping their staff on, not attempting to get money from the season ticket holders etc, repaying as soon as you ask for it. It might seem a weird thing to congratulate them on, but I do.
I do think United have acted with some dignity during the epidemic - keeping their staff on, not attempting to get money from the season ticket holders etc, repaying as soon as you ask for it. It might seem a weird thing to congratulate them on, but I do.
Stormont meeting today and supposed to make announcement. Must have got the two confused
Sure sounds like you had a mild dose of it
It's around 600k for second doses from seeing the figures the other day. My dad had AZ first dose on Feb 3rd so will see how long before he gets invitation for second, probably sometime in April.
Saw that elsewhere, interesting first time in a while there was speculation on the old herd immunity pipe dream and some number crunching.
55% of population being vaxxed is very realistic within next few monhs and what caught my eye is lifting of all social distancing measures if vaccine can be reached to 2/3s of population which again feels very realistic within six months).
The crux and there's always one is covid is needing vaccine to be 90% effective against transmission and no signficant variants emerging which feels a bit of a long shot given how the last few months have gone but we live in hope.
I wonder where we'd be now with opening up the country again if no significant variant had emerged?
Guessing this is a combination of vaccines (minimal) and natural herd immunity?
Regarding herd immunity, with people in routines and a lot in lockdowns surely the required immunity % is a lot lower as people are not mingling like they would in a normal functioning society?
Varying degrees of lockdown in most countries is likely the most influential factor.
Could be but there are cases like my country - we have 14% of population vaccinated (not both doses) and had a lot of people infected and cases have gone down dramatically compared to before with virtually no lockdown to speak of.
I think my question was more a case of “is there a herd immunity achieved within the subset of people who cannot follow strict lock down rules?”
By that I mean... are plenty of bubbles that exist in offices, building sites, factories ect ect actually benefiting from natural herd immunity now it’s ravaged through a lot of them?
You sure? I would've thought vaccines had to do something with it since most countries were already in a sort of lockdown between Nov 2020 - January 2021 when worldwide cases were rising to the absolute peak.
The US had very close to 300k during the global peak.. its down to around 70k now.. thats over 200k down. The US had been on an upward trend since after the thanksgiving/elections things from oct .. it was going to fall at some point.
The peak was around Jan 8th.. just after the Christmas/ holiday/ new year break.
Also.. it goes up and down without much action anyway.. there has to be some tipping point where it gets so out of control that people start taking more precautions on their own..
I'm sure vaccines can only help.. but the cases were quite likely to drop after that Jan peak regardless.
People are going to start ignoring the lockdown long before they're actually allowed so i think it's a wise move not to rush the public message.
Getting people to comply with any restrictions might be tough enough.
Getting people to comply with any restrictions might be tough enough.
Has happened here for quite some time.
Where I am you definitely wouldn’t think there is a lockdown- barring lack of school traffic the roads are busy as ever. Almost everyone seems to be wearing a mask in fairness
Yeah, I’d say there’s some truth to that theory. Just look at historical pandemics. They also created these big waves, without any vaccinations or coordinated lockdowns to cause each wave to subside. Makes sense that the virus picks off all the low hanging fruit and eventually runs out of potential hosts.
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454 deaths today compared to 678 last Thursday. Sorry don't have other numbers, this is the only one I've been interested in.
The case data in the UK is interesting, does look to show signs of the beginning of a plateau in the positive cases. One to watch over the next couple of weeks, as they may have to look at accepting a level of case load that will be amongst the population as society opens up.
A plateau implies you’re still at the peak? Surely you’d want to be well into a decline before talking about acceptable caseloads?
Wrong term, then a levelling off on the numbers. The steepness of the decline in cases appears to be slowing.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is some goal/target of getting down to a low caseload number before re-opening, In a couple of weeks it could be a struggle to see how they're going to achieve that in the time frames based on that view there.
Ah. Gotcha. We experienced something similar in Ireland. Big slow down in the initial decline. Much more so than in previous lockdowns. I put it down to a combination of lockdown fatigue and this annoyingly infectious new variant (90% dominant now)
This account tweets covid news from same day in 2020. Some of it makes you want to scream at how badly this was all handled
To be fair he said that this was what he was told at the time. He addressed it in an interview where he said that he changed his perspective when more evidence was presented to him. We shouldn't criticise people for changing their opinion once they have more information.
I meant just in general. The account is like a slow motion car crash
he cautioned against masks much later than this.
It divided (expert) opinions for a long time. I remember listening to very smart ID physicians who made a compelling case that masks, inexpertly used, could actually increase transmission.
The consensus shifted over time but that’s the nature of science.
Some absolutely amazing news coming out this evening.
The most significant of those is the impact on transmission. A glimpse of a possible end to most social distancing rules in the future.
So numbers calling in ireland everywhere apart from...
you guessed it, my Fukin village
you guessed it, my Fukin village
Craggy Island?
Some absolutely fantastic news there indeed. And something I haven’t seen mentioned is the gift of a new meme template in this tweet.
Excess mortality in Europe 2020
(Comparison with 2016-2019 levels)
Liechtenstein: 20,8 %
Spain: 18,9 %
Poland: 18,7 %
Slovakia: 18,5 %
Italy: 17,4 %
Belgium: 16,7 %
Czech: 16,6 %
Bulgaria: 15,1 %
Britain & N. Ireland: 15,1 %
Switzerland: 13,0 %
Malta: 12,6 %
Lithuania: 12,3 %
Holland: 11,6 %
Romania: 11,1 %
Austria: 11,1 %
Portugal: 11,0 %
Slovakia: 10,5 %
Luxembourg: 10,4 %
France: 10,4 %
Cyprus: 9,2 %
Croatia: 9,1 %
Hungary: 8,1 %
Sweden: 7,6 %
Greece: 7,5 %
Germany: 5,3 %
Estonia: 3,1 %
Finland: 2,7 %
Iceland: 1,6 %
Denmark: 1,6 %
Latvia: 0,4 %
Norway: -0,4 %
Source: Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, data from Eurostat, University of Oxford och SCB.
Appears a fair bit of under-reporting even in Europe; noticeable that Belgium don’t quite stick out the same in this list.
Hopefully vaccines will see a year or two of lower than normal levels of mortality now. Fingers crossed, some good stats this week have improved my downbeat mood.
(Comparison with 2016-2019 levels)
Liechtenstein: 20,8 %
Spain: 18,9 %
Poland: 18,7 %
Slovakia: 18,5 %
Italy: 17,4 %
Belgium: 16,7 %
Czech: 16,6 %
Bulgaria: 15,1 %
Britain & N. Ireland: 15,1 %
Switzerland: 13,0 %
Malta: 12,6 %
Lithuania: 12,3 %
Holland: 11,6 %
Romania: 11,1 %
Austria: 11,1 %
Portugal: 11,0 %
Slovakia: 10,5 %
Luxembourg: 10,4 %
France: 10,4 %
Cyprus: 9,2 %
Croatia: 9,1 %
Hungary: 8,1 %
Sweden: 7,6 %
Greece: 7,5 %
Germany: 5,3 %
Estonia: 3,1 %
Finland: 2,7 %
Iceland: 1,6 %
Denmark: 1,6 %
Latvia: 0,4 %
Norway: -0,4 %
Source: Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, data from Eurostat, University of Oxford och SCB.
Appears a fair bit of under-reporting even in Europe; noticeable that Belgium don’t quite stick out the same in this list.
Hopefully vaccines will see a year or two of lower than normal levels of mortality now. Fingers crossed, some good stats this week have improved my downbeat mood.