SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

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Certainly if accurate backs up what @Foxbatt is saying.
 
spiriticon said:
My question is, if there is excess capacity and our health system isn't being overwhelmed, why are there 900+ people a day still dying? The main reason for a high death count in other countries is due to the health system being overwhelmed so ours must be a different reason.
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This is where you are getting it wrong.

Health systems have not been totally overwhelmed anywhere yet, with the exception of a few towns here and there in particular hotspots. High death rates are down to factors like demographics and cultural traits.

Hound Dog said:
But you would have other weaker people coming in for them?
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True but the number of weaker patients would still decline over time. For every new patient that's one less in the population that can be exposed to it.
 
Italy reporting it's second consecutive day of <3,000 new cases for the first time since early March, and another day of active case reduction. The PM is outlining measures for a gradual reduction of measures by the end of this week, to begin on May 4.
 
11101 said:
Italy reporting it's second consecutive day of <3,000 new cases for the first time since early March, and another day of active case reduction. The PM is outlining measures for a gradual reduction of measures by the end of this week, to begin on May 4.
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Nice
 
F-Red said:
Interesting, keep us posted on his updates.
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I will. Yes he seemed very upbeat and happy today. Last week he was despondent and sad. He is also involved in a clinical trial of a prospective cure. That would take at least a month for any news.
 
balaks said:
People are dieing because this is a dangerous virus and lots of people are getting it. It is not as a result of a lack of hospital capacity. Could be a mixture of population density, levels of pollution and general lack of health in the UK population. I dread to think what the number of deaths might have been had we not implemented the lockdown which would have most likely overwhelmed the NHS completely.
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One Night Only said:
I've said it before and I'll say it again, the health of people in the UK is pretty shocking as is our obesity rates. That has a massive contribution. Others have said alot of other countries are worse than us in the regard so I could be wrong.

Also, don't think we beat Italy with our old age, but we do have a hell of a lot of old people. Not sure how we compare to other countries in that respect though.
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F-Red said:
You're still going to get death's with this disease, no matter what. There is no vaccine for it, so you're left at the strength of the patient and to have no previous or existing health issues to make a recovery from it. That's not to say everyone that gets it, and has health issues, doesn't recover. It's well known that the older demographic have weaker immune systems and are more susceptible for it. Literally the only thing the healthcare system can manage is patients oxygen levels, and using appropriate ventilation techniques (using a variety of machines) to give patients enough oxygen in their lungs to assist their recovery.

The other element is that we're still getting deaths from 3-4 weeks ago of people who may have not followed guidance on social distancing. We're seeing now, tragically, of healthcare professionals on the frontline dying as they become exposed to it (I'll save the governments shocking response on PPE for another day). So in short, we'll still see deaths. From getting the virus, to death can take as much as 3-4 weeks. So we're still going to see some deaths for more weeks, and certainly in the future as the government wants to open up the country. Obvious social distancing will be the major mitigation to manage the peaks until a virus is found.
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jymufc20 said:
Probably due to there being no known cure for covid-19.

The ventilators don't cure patients, they just keep them going to buy time in the hope the patients body can fight off the disease.
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Yeah I know there are many underlying factors including: lack of vaccine, obesity, diabetes and hypertension. And there will always be that small percentage who will pass on even with the best healthcare.

But it's just the idea that no matter how we organise our healthcare capacity, we will get a minimum of 900-1000 deaths a day at peak, and there's nothing we can do about it...it really rubs me the wrong way idealistically.

And @F-Red, I would totally agree with you on the shocking response on PPE. Unbelievable.

11101 said:
This is where you are getting it wrong.

Health systems have not been totally overwhelmed anywhere yet, with the exception of a few towns here and there in particular hotspots. High death rates are down to factors like demographics and cultural traits.
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London is a hotspot for us though and we don't seem to need the Nightingale even at (close to) peak, which really boggles my mind. I still really can't decide if that's a good thing or a bad thing.

It's easy for me to say 'Definitely a good thing! We have less people who really need the hospital than we initially thought!" but is that really true looking at that death count?
 
Cassidy said:
Last 5 days seem quite far off from the numbers I'm seeing on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Worldometer's figures depend on deaths by day of reporting. Dan's figures take those same deaths but properly distribute them by the actual day of death - which is a more informative statistic. Dan's graph also appears to only incorporate the figures for England, rather than the UK as a whole.

You can easily discount the last few days of these graphs because it typically takes between 2 - 7 days to reach a satisfactorily accurate figure. We'll know much more about Monday this week by Monday next.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
Worldometer's figures depend on deaths by day of reporting. Dan's figures take those same deaths but properly distribute them by the actual day of death - which is a more informative statistic. Dan's graph also appears to only incorporate the figures for England, rather than the UK as a whole.

You can easily discount the last few days of these graphs because it typically takes between 2 - 7 days to reach a satisfactorily accurate figure. We'll know much more about Monday this week by Monday next.
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Ah thanks for the explanation
 
Regarding unreported covid-19 deaths and excess deaths in various countries, here's an article with those numbers, they think approx. 28,000 more deaths can be added to the tally just by these nations included in the article.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

I also saw that during the period of 21.march-11.april there was approx 8000 more deaths in Ecuador also, so propably more countries have not been able to report due to testing issues or have not included home/nursing home deaths.
 
Dancfc said:
Maybe that graph factors more the ones who die pretty much solely because of Covid instead of one's that either had loads of health issues that put them on borrowed time anyway or died for something else and happened to have mild Covid?
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Didn't realise the difference in your numbers as explained by @Ekkie Thump above
 
spiriticon said:
I can read but you're not explaining it very well. If you didn't mention that you had an other half who worked in the NHS and that I think you might have some inside info, I wouldn't give you the time of day.

I get that you're telling me there is capacity in the hospitals and there is no need to use the Nightingale as it is only a field hospital with no expertise and equipment. I GET THAT.

My question is, if there is excess capacity and our health system isn't being overwhelmed, why are there 900+ people a day still dying? The main reason for a high death count in other countries is due to the health system being overwhelmed so ours must be a different reason.

I'm a doctor (but not the medical kind unfortunately) so please do not speak to me like I am stupid.
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Hi there are many issues regarding Nightingale not having many patients. They do not offer all of what an ITU does and therefore have very specific admission criteria and strict exclusionary ones too.

Frail patients with extensive comorbidities often require input from different teams, imaging modalities, dialysis machines and would not be suitable for transfer. Most likely the patients most suitable are those ventilated who are "stable" (maybe those who need a bit a time to wean off) but not with complex other issues. COVID19 causes massive inflammation, coagulation defects, secondary infections & multi-organ failure. You need ITU beds for such patients and patients who are stable could potentially be transferred to Nightingale to free up space.

The reason a lot of people would still die despite "capacity" is because we know that intubation is something that frail patients would not do well on. On the new respect forms or Treatment Escalation Plans (TEPs) we discuss resuscitation but also ceiling of intervention. Decisions to palliate are made in line with wishes from patients and family which is as much a medical decision as much as line with the advanced care planning we discuss with them.
 
spiriticon said:
London is a hotspot for us though and we don't seem to need the Nightingale even at (close to) peak, which really boggles my mind. I still really can't decide if that's a good thing or a bad thing.

It's easy for me to say 'Definitely a good thing! We have less people who really need the hospital than we initially thought!" but is that really true looking at that death count?
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Nurse shortage causes Nightingale hospital to turn away patients

Covid-19 patient transfers to new London facility cancelled due to lack of ICU nurses

Dozens of patients with Covid-19 have been turned away from the NHS Nightingale hospital in London because it has too few nurses to treat them, the Guardian can reveal.

The disclosure comes amid a growing belief among hospital management in the capital that the Nightingale, built to great acclaim over just nine days, was becoming a “white elephant”.

The hospital has been unable to admit about 50 people with the disease and needing “life or death” care since its first patient arrived at the site, in the ExCeL exhibition centre, in London’s Docklands, on 7 April. Thirty of these people were rejected because of a lack of staff.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...es-nightingale-hospital-to-turn-away-patients
 
Thesis on the role of Prevotella and Covid19

Source: RAW PERFORMANCE on facebook

This study is a preprint and therefore needs to be confirmed even further through peer reviews, but I think it's worth bringing this attention. At least we learn something from it, and at least it does confirm that there is much more going on than just having bad luck and getting sick. It is clear that the stomach and intestinal flora are integral part of the functioning of our immune system. Think of the stomach as the place where bacteria and immune system meet. How that meeting goes is clearly crucial. " There are no second chances to make a first impression."

From the preliminary conclusion of the study, we can note that the Prevotella (one of the large types of bacteria that populate our stomach and intestinal flora) play a crucial role in the development of the coronavirus. The bacteria would be a carrier for the virus in this situation.
Some background information: the prevotella bacteria are responsible, among other things, for the digestion of carbohydrates, especially starch and sugar. Furthermore, we also find the species in the respiratory system, both in the lungs and upper respiratory tract.

Prevotella are also strong indicative of inflammation in the stomach and the rest of the body, both positive and negative. This once again points to their role as a facilitator or carrier. The problem with bacteria is especially that in fact we still know too little / nothing about it. After all, it is only the last decades that these are finally coming to attention and that research can be carried out.

With that in mind, no one can say for sure what exactly is, but in the current malaise, a connection does not seem far-fetched. Especially if we link the information of this preprint to other preprints (link) and ongoing studies that indicate overweight as a prominent risk factor for hospitalization due to the coronavirus (link), a clear pattern will be visible.

After all, there are several "causes" that seem to have a common basis. It would not be the disorders or overweight in itself, because the most logical explanation is to look for the common factors that cause this.

And there is: with the exception of congenital conditions, many disorders have their cause in people's lifestyle. Our lifestyle has a strong impact on the stomach and intestinal flora as well as on the immune system. Given the complexity, there is still a lot to be done, but it would explain why a lot of apparently healthy people get seriously ill anyway.

Anyway, what we already know in the meantime is that a good balance is needed in the stomach and intestinal flora. Several colonies must work together in a way. Even though it is rather a kind of struggle between the colonies, which is usually won by the species that is-in this case, literally-the most fed.
The statement is now that the Prevotella species has become too dominant compared to the balance that is naturally present for the people of Western European origin, causing serious health risks due to our lifestyle.

In combination with what we know about the role of sugar and less qualitative carbohydrates as cause of inflammation, it seems appropriate to pay attention to exaggerated carbohydrates and sugars, especially during this period where temptation can be particularly great because of boredom, frustrations and the general lack of movement.

Another striking trend in research towards solutions points towards (a shortage) of vitamin D. This is also fiercely related to our lifestyle.

So get out, move, socialize, soak up some sunshine, eat healthy food, skip the sugar and stimulants and avoid (social) media induced stress and anxiety.

Prevotella as a carrier:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339008515_The_2019_Wuhan_outbreak_is_caused_by_the_bacteria_Prevotella_which_is_aided_by_the_coronavirus_possibly_to_adhere_to_epithelial_cells_-_Prevotella_is_present_in_huge_amounts_in_patients_from_both_Chin

Prevotella info:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevotella

Stomach and intestinal system as a potential contamination route:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927806v1

Overweight:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32271993
& https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article&fbclid=IwAR1llKM06RHqnEXElwNn-5GO-reKVUIiwFR8aP2akJea6RzUHgT6Q30HjEg

Vitamin D:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5865875/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/ar...9fno6guQjzGMu0MAGbc4lXRlU2LGn-mmMS-u4P5C8mp-A

 
Pogue Mahone said:


Absolute fecking tools, the lot of them. We’ve seen similar gobshites in MAGA hats over the pond. Is there a UK equivalent?
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Christ. Liberate us from their stupidity. Just saw a comment about throwing in a 5g phone and watching them scatter

Is that Sinead O’Connor’s ex in the middle?
 
Sandikan said:
Probably missing something, but are we not still reporting 800s every day? Not down to 200s?!
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It is a graph based on the day the death occured, rather than the day the death was reported.
 
spiriticon said:
There's no what aboutery. The whole point of opening up these field hospitals is to deal with the excess strain that COVID-19 poses. If we have so much excess capacity that the hospital is pretty much empty, then we are probably being too picky about who we admit.

We really should only need to pick and choose who goes into hospital when we are already operating at maximum. If we are not at maximum, we should relax those selection procedures so even more people can have adequate medical attention and we can save more lives.

The Nightingale should be at least half-full. If not with already seriously ill people then at least with those who are at the highest risk of being seriously ill.

The only time our hospitals should ever remain empty is when we have 0 deaths from COVID-19.
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They should hopefully always be empty.

They’re emergency capacity measures. If they’re empty, measures are working.

You have no clue what you’re talking about and you’ve still taken a point of position.
 
spiriticon said:
My question is, if there is excess capacity and our health system isn't being overwhelmed, why are there 900+ people a day still dying? The main reason for a high death count in other countries is due to the health system being overwhelmed so ours must be a different reason.
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There are apparently many different mutations some of which are more deadly than others. New York City has been identified as having the most deadly strain whilst Washington State had a weaker strain. Think Italy were identified as having the most deadly strain too.

F-Red said:
The nightingale clinical admission, certainly the London one, is to receive lower risk Covid patients. It would suggest it would be those stronger patients, or those exiting the worst part of the virus on the lungs. The HSJ has some good articles which covers this and gives insight into how the London hospitals are improving capacity, certainly in ICU.
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She’s saying that they’re bringing in intubated patients straight from ICU that are not conscious and their job is to get them breathing on their own again. I’m guessing these patients are pretty seriously ill but beyond the most dangerous point so it makes space in ICU for those in greater danger.
 
Sandikan said:
A pal said it's their "way of life".

There's culture, and there's horrifically unhygienic barbaric.
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Absolutely sickening stuff. Even some people here said they can do what they want in their own country.
 
Volumiza said:
Wow. That makes me want to go full Rambo and rescue all the dogs.
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You would be tempted to go and buy them all as pets wouldn't you!

How do they even round these dogs up? Are people selling their pets?!
 
Amar__ said:
Absolutely sickening stuff. Even some people here said they can do what they want in their own country.
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The previous pandemics originating from there were unfortunate, but there's no getting away from this one - something needs to change.
 
Sandikan said:
You would be tempted to go and buy them all as pets wouldn't you!

How do they even round these dogs up? Are people selling their pets?!
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Yep, I’d buy the lot of them if possible.

You’d imagine most are strays and gathered up through opportunism.

Just appalling.
 
Volumiza said:
Yep, I’d buy the lot of them if possible.

You’d imagine most are strays and gathered up through opportunism.

Just appalling.
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A few of them looked really healthy Labrador types, that can't be wild.
Just makes it even worse.

I'm surprised some of the dogs weren't looking a bit more panicked, with dead dogs on the top of their cage. Horrific.

It does make you want to get over there and storm the camp, but I suppose just like south americans who harvest and sell plants that are used for cocaine, these locals have only this way to make money.
Doesn't make it right, but explains why.
 
Sandikan said:
A few of them looked really healthy Labrador types, that can't be wild.
Just makes it even worse.

I'm surprised some of the dogs weren't looking a bit more panicked, with dead dogs on the top of their cage. Horrific.
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Dogs are accepting and trusting. So sad. Watching again I think you’re right. Unless they have been bred and raised for this?
 
What about this vaccine by the scientists at Oxford university? It seems that they are so confident that they have ordered manufacturing too.
 
Volumiza said:
Dogs are accepting and trusting. So sad. Watching again I think you’re right. Unless they have been bred and raised for this?
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Probably just a mix of wild dogs in the main, but also a few people selling their pets in - although of course dogs as pets isn't anywhere as big a thing as in the west. Otherwise they wouldn't be selling them as meat!

They don't strike me as being the patient types to rear dogs for this? Would take too long.
 
Foxbatt said:
What about this vaccine by the scientists at Oxford university? It seems that they are so confident that they have ordered manufacturing too.
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I thought the same as you, but am sure I read that you have to start production as soon as possible to minimise any time lag.
Sounds bonkers logic to me, as what if they don't pass the tests!
 
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