you don't lockdown an entire country just to ensure senior citizens don't die though. it's to avoid your health services being overrun. countries are going to have to come out of lockdown eventually, what happens then?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
you don't lockdown an entire country just to ensure senior citizens don't die though. it's to avoid your health services being overrun. countries are going to have to come out of lockdown eventually, what happens then?
LOCKDOWN: Episode 6.
This is why governments asking people to have common sense doesn't work. Common sense is very individual depending on your life experience and how that has shaped you so you'll have people from all classes and backgrounds who have none or have some.
But hey, it absolves governments of blame so who cares!
Number 10 is a waste of space.
I’m happy to stay in. But if you tell me I can go to sunbathe in a park, at a distance from hundreds of strangers...
Why the Fcuk do they think I’d not trust 10 friends to meet me and stay apart?
Their messaging is not workable.
Exactly. The more crowded somewhere gets, the less easy it is to social distance.
Parks in England are going to be fecking brutal. They will be packed and there will be very little social distancing.
Im not allowed to meet more than one family member In a park, two metres apart, but sitting amongst hundreds of strangers is permitted? It’s lunacy.
Im not allowed to meet more than one family member In a park, two metres apart, but sitting amongst hundreds of strangers is permitted? It’s lunacy.
Regarding Nz - I have friends and family there;
- They’ve proven themselves to be trustable
- The public has been exposed to lockdown measures
- They’ve been shown that they work
- They have had a clearly defined scale in place that everyone knows
Their long term strategy is based around mitigant treatment, not a vaccine.
There’s no element of gambling. They’re just biding their time. The rest of the world is running trials on drugs, running several dozen types of social experiments.
NZ doesn’t have the resources to lead. So it’s chosen to manage their country, then follow and adopt the best proven standards from other countries.
Meet as many people as you like. They don’t care. Make your own decisions.
You are obviously not lifting either.
Apparently they raffled off a trip to the US (seems a quite fitting destination, seeing that queue). Not sure they could make it much clearer that they are not using their opportunity responsibly. I don't even know why they were allowed to open in the first place. They have people sweat and breath heavily all over the place, dozens of people (lets be honest here: lots of them are either dumb or careless) sharing one piece of equipment and notoriously short staffed and underpaid personnel have to "police" the whole thing?
That's the sort of logic that leads societies towards ultra-authoritarian governments
“Their long term strategy is based around mitigant treatment, not a vaccine.”
Could you expand on that? Not sure what you mean?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...s/deathsregistereduptoandincluding20april2020
Deaths by occupation.
Deaths by occupation.
I realise that's what we should do, but it's not what the government have given us guidance on and it was suggested at the start of the speech yesterday that fines would rise as a deterrent to stop people breaking the guidance.
It's OK if they don't care and trust people to make the right decisions but it's another to suggest they will fine you if you are caught not following what they say.
Our region (Marche) now has the lowest R-number of all regions in Italy, at 0.29. This is a great result, as we were up there with the worst 4 or 5 regions a few weeks ago. We still can't travel freely between regions, and that seems to be working.
Anyone who's ever worked with the general public knows there is no such thing as common sense. Probably why these ruling class types have no idea of how the real world works.
I think anyone in politics should have to spend 2 years working in a shop, just to understand how thick the general population can be.
Maybe we should have done that here, stop people fancying a trip up from the Midlands to the Lake District.
Some interesting stuff there. Security guards was a bit of a curve ball. Presumably the poor sods being shouted at for making people queue outside shops
Definitely - although the concept of regions is far looser in the UK than it is here, so it would have been difficult to define. It's only since last week that we've been able to travel for certain reasons in other parts of our own region, as up till 4 May we had to stay in the village, town or city where we were registered as living.
Every region in Italy has its own President and they have a lot of power, which is exercised through the network of Mayors. It's extra layers of government, but it's helpful at times like these.
It's time travellers. Like 12 Monkeys.
They are taking out Brexiteers too for good measure.
There’s no chance you’d get fined for meeting up with your parents and keeping 2 meters apart. As long as you aren’t there for hours, there’s no way of police telling. There were people having BBQ’s in the biggest park in Bath when I was there on Saturday, no police to be seen and that’s a sunny bank holiday weekend during a lockdown.
So apparently my office has reopened and they are getting some people back, I don't know if it's those who have been furloughed or people who have been wfh. It would make sense to just have the furloughed people in the office and keep the rest wfh but it sounds like some who have been wfh are returning
Hoping I can fly under the radar and stay wfh.
Hoping I can fly under the radar and stay wfh.
They’re not a dramatic people.
If Remdesivir or something else reduces severity, they’ll use it. Other countries will lead the work to find other treatments that make the virus less life threatening. They’ll follow.
They’re not suggesting this is all going away soon. The messaging is that they’re in this for as long as it takes and their number one priority is people.
Nobody will fine you.
Of course, and I realise that. I was just making the point about mixed messages. On one hand they tell you they will fine you (which will deter a proportion of people) but then don't make the obvious things like meeting up in a garden with close family OK whilst it is supposedly fine to do the same with strangers in a park.
All countries will use whatever treatment is proven to be effective. Just like all countries will use a vaccine, if one becomes available. There’s nothing unique to NZ about this.
I’m just wondering about the long term strategy of a country that completely stops community transmission in the not unlikely scenario that we end up with no effective treatment or vaccine. It seems to me that keeping the R0 at around 1 (ideally just below) is a decent long term hedge against the possibility of no treatment/vaccine. Otherwise you end up painted into a corner. With a vulnerable population that has no immunity whatsoever and a lethal disease endemic in the rest of the world. Which is, obviously, a bit of a disaster.
I don't think it's likely there won't be a vaccine (or at least treatment). However assuming it's the case I don't think we'd be in a significantly different situation a year from now if we limit it to a few thousand new cases per day. For example even 10k new cases every day for a whole year (however you'd manage that number without it getting out of control) would still equal less than 10% of the english population. In Germany it wouldn't even be 5%.
I'd love to live in a society that allowed people to mostly do what they want but as can be seen in situations like this there are a minority of people who cannot be trusted. If we just say 'use your common sense' you'll have people who either don't have any or you'll have people who do but don't care and decide to do it anyway. Hence you have situations where there are massive queues. If people and places were more sensible i.e online ticketing for gyms or pubs (I know it takes away one of the best things about a pub - spontaneous trip) it can hopefully limit things like this happening.
Very interesting. And quite frightening.
What’s unique about NZ is the fact it wanted to have some weapons in hand before it went off to battle.
There will be treatments that blunt the severity. Once they’re proven the country will be more willing to allow more citizens to contract the virus.
Care communities (they don’t have care homes at our scale) will be insulated. Mitigation’s will be in place.
If you want to read NZ news, read The Spinoff : NZ mainstream media is probably the worst in the world. The Spin Off is a successful independent and has some great writers.
Yeah that’s a fair point. I hadn’t done the maths!
I was really just thinking that a constant low grade trickle of cases through a country (and I’m assuming that the asymptomatic cases and limited testing capacity means the “real” number of cases is many multiples higher than what’s reported) over the next few years would be your ideal scenario. Obviously, assuming your healthcare system can cope.
Not that I think NZ have done anything wrong. Their response has been incredible. If any of the less effective lockdowns end up with better long term outcomes I’d put that down to more luck than design.
It just makes me uneasy to think of countries completely walled off from a virus that might well end up endemic in the rest of the world. They could end up like Native Americans, exquisitely vulnerable to the common cold, constantly threatened by any foreign visitors.
Today is the first day where we can travel in other regions, within 100km from our home, you can only go farther for work or for family emergencies. As in Italy there is the regional layer with presidents that have lots of powers alongside prefects, they can tweak the rules locally. The good thing with the way things have been done is that we have a map with red and green departments the green departments have a loosened lockdown while the red are in the same type of lockdown than the one we have had since March and there is an infographic explaining the difference between both areas.
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Well I will.
I want to see friends and family but realise doing so will put health at risk and only serve to extend lockdown.
feck people breaking social distancing rules, selfish cnuts.
Watch the UK cases jump up again in the next two weeks. Just seen the video clip from the tube, madness.
This is what I've been saying since day 1.
Really? I don’t remember complete eradication ever being an option in the Uk, where they lost the run of things within a day or two of the first cases being reported.
Was anyone suggesting that the Uk could try to eradicate the virus in this thread? I can’t remember any posts along those lines.
The colour coding is a very good idea, and makes it clear for the public. People need unambiguous instructions, whichever country you're in.
Conte did say that some regions could be locked back down if things went the wrong way, which would confine people in that region to their own comune again. We're due some more opening-ups from the 18th, if all stays well.
More that reaching herd immunity was possibly the only way out of being in perpetual lockdown. I brought up the exit strategy of the likes of Singapore and South Korea a few times, but perhaps not in the explicit way you're doing now.