SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
The droplets of an asymptotic gym rat can be deemed insignificant as the number of gym goers grows.
I'm not sure 145 deaths today is really getting back to normal. Much better than before but nowhere near normal or under control.
Except in that people are less snotty and sneezy in summer.
They do have open windows on the tube in the summer I think. You'd imagine that the air flow at that speed would lead to the air being recycled quite well. I guess the warmer and dryer weather would encourage more people to walk, that along with more masks and better hygiene could contribute to the reductions perhaps.
I take it you've never been on the tube in the summer months then
Commuted on it for years. It’s horrendous. My point is that it’s never cold. Which is a theory about why viruses spread more quickly in winter. They linger longer on cold surfaces. Otherwise it’s all about changes in our behaviour.
Chicken and egg.
Open windows is a good point. Think that’s only on the lines that have overground sections?
Here in Australia there was some mixed messaging but nowhere near the scale of the BoJo induced contradictory messaging chaos. And the response to breeches was simple. $1000 plus fine and/or arrested. When we opened a beach or two up and people didn't behave we closed them again. I can't stand our government and generally I wouldn't trust them to park my car but compared to BoJo and Trump they are a shining example of competence.
NZ are the lucky ones. Basically we should make Jacinda Ardern Emperor of the Universe.
Maybe everyone spending so much time outdoors has given them a nice bump in Vitamin D?
I'm not sure. Windows on the tube are not my area of expertise regrettably.
I'm not sure if coldness is the thing, isn't dryness the main point? If I'm not mistaken dry and cold isn't good for virus or bacterias while warm and humid is. Living beings tend to slow down in the cold and die in dryness.
I meant in behaviour. If you took the masks away you wouldn't notice much difference from any other year.
Deaths are a difficult stat to use as there is such a lag and the time to die gets progressively longer. It's now 11 days from symptom onset to death in Italy, almost double what it was at the beginning. It doesn't really tell you anything about what's going on right now.
Agreed but I think most countries are reducing restrictions far too fast. Lock down for another month and you may get closer to eradication or at actual restriction/management. Relax now and a second wave is almost inevitable.
Yeah, you’re right. Dryness kills influenza. Cold wet surfaces spread norovirus, I think? Rarely an issue on a tube carriage in the middle of summer, mind you! They’re horrendous sweat boxes.
I’ve read that the biggest driver of seasonality, by far, is our behaviour. No schools, less time indoors etc Plus we all get a little immune suppressed in winter. See comment above re Vitamin D.
Not sure you know, in the sense that I don't know about burden of proof if other countries but in my dealings with bereavement office and medical examiners its fairly straight forward (admittedly this is for hospital patients), remarkably I haven't had to do a single coroner's office referral related to a covid patien
Crem forms are easier too know. Government guidelines are here
https://assets.publishing.service.g...l-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf
Basically says as long as pre-death symptoms suggestive of covid no swab needed and you can apply clinical judgement
I understand that there might be subtle differences in Scotland and N Ireland from this MDU article but not really too different across the UK when you consider its implications for ONS data etc
https://www.themdu.com/guidance-and...ce/certifying-deaths-during-covid-19-outbreak
Bacteria like warm and humid conditions, but viruses vary. Temperature is less important but certain enveloped viruses like influenza prefer low humidity, and others like rhinoviruses prefer high humidity.
Interesting. Thanks. I worked in the Uk but never certified any deaths (thank feck, was doing child psych in GOSH)
It's pretty warm in Brasil at the moment and that's one of the hardest hit countries in the world.
However doing the social activities outside likely helps a lot as the virus isn't as easily transmitted if you're not in a closed room.
Wasn't lockdown mainly about suppressing a wave? Which means the trajectory Europe is seeing now (decline after the peak) is what we would have seen in quicker time with no intial restrictions but ofcourse the peak totally overwhelming the health systems.
While there's always the threat of a second peak further down the line I don't think it's as simple as "open up and cases straight away rise to unsustainable levels again" which early signs are is not happening, quite the opposite in fact.
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I see Brazil and other emerging market countries are lifting lockdowns despite their cases being on the rise. Mass slaughter incoming
And this is the problem. There is a divide building amongst people working and people on furlough working for the same company. I don’t see why I should be covering the work of 3 people whilst many are now going to the beach as restrictions are relaxed. How exactly is this fair? The point of the measures is to stop the spread of a ‘killer’ virus yet this point now seems to have been lost on many.
Most people have had paid time off which they would never be able to afford to take 2/3 months off in their working life.
My brother lives in Auckland. Apparently she wasn't doing so well until the Christchurch shooting then it dipped again ...and now this. Crisis star. Better leader than a manager?
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Lucky then that what we really need right now are strong leaders rather than managers.
And when your business is thriving, do all your staff earn as much as you? You can't be happy to rake it in when things are going well, but expect not to bear the brunt when things aren't. That is the whole game of being a small business owner.
Yes. Don’t know about you but I’m run into the ground. It’s unreal to think of people getting the break of their lives on 80% pay, whilst the ones that are working will need a month or so to recover from the crippling workload they’ve had
Very good point.
Yeah the signs are good so far. Let's hope it stays that way.
I think it helps massively that people are still wary of going back to normal life, in the sense that we might have opened version things, but people still keep a certain distance as much as possible. Plus the handwashing and cleaning in general has basically wiped out other diseases, so I'm sure it's helping on this virus as well.
Aye, and we will have to use our holidays to get the break, so wasting holidays to recover from excess workload. It's bullshit tbh.
Very good news. Knowing how the seasonal cycle works it may be related to that. Buys us some valuable time in developing treatments/vaccine.
Plus, in my sector they’ve all been doing lots of extra training. For example, some have been doing a teaching qual, which takes up a fair bit of time. I’ll be expected to do that alongside my usual work when we go back to normal.
Wouldn't it be expected that Sweden would be higher given their comparative lack of lock down to Italy and Spain?
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Surprising numbers - what it shows is how disastrous allowing covid to spread more across european communities would be given the number of deaths and only single digit seroprevalence to show for it
New York City residents with their dense population had something like 20% and they were the highest I can recall or rather have seen quoted, probably the reason death rates aren't higher there is due to demographics I'd think
I've heard it mentioned that you need a smaller number of immune patients to reach effective herd immunity threshold than you would for something like Measles and seen wide variations in percentages quoted but you'd need WAY more than the numbers listed above.
What it means I think is that this thing will be with us for a while with restrictions eased. Contact tracing, isolation of those infected, continued shielding unfortunately for the extremely vulnerable, mass testing and managing this thing at local levels in hot spots should now be prioritised rather than one-size-fits-all national-level guidelines which will be ignored en-masse anyway.
Surprising numbers - what it shows is how disastrous allowing covid to spread more across european communities would be given the number of deaths and only single digit seroprevalence to show for it
New York City residents with their dense population had something like 20% and they were the highest I can recall or rather have seen quoted, probably the reason death rates aren't higher there is due to demographics I'd think
I've heard it mentioned that you need a smaller number of immune patients to reach effective herd immunity threshold than you would for something like Measles and seen wide variations in percentages quoted but you'd need WAY more than the numbers listed above.
What it means I think is that this thing will be with us for a while with restrictions eased. Contact tracing, isolation of those infected, continued shielding unfortunately for the extremely vulnerable, mass testing and managing this thing at local levels in hot spots should now be prioritised rather than one-size-fits-all national-level guidelines which will be ignored en-masse anyway.
I think they expected that, but clearly it didn't happen that way. And good for them, because if it did, they would collapse as other countries did.
It stands to reason that their "lack of lockdown" made little difference in the end. I think there was merit to the idea that they were "social distancing" naturally already, due to the specificities of the country and it's social culture.
Reality tells us that they did social distance to some degree. Even then, they still had too many cases and far more deaths than needed. Couple that with the daunting reports that they failed to provite adequate care for their eldery (despite, apparently, having more than enough capacity to do so) and I think this has all been a huge fiasco for Sweden. Fortunately, not in the same dramatic way I thought it would be, but still pretty bad, and inexcusable in my view.
I started paying attention on the day they surpassed Portugal in the number of deaths, because the policies were so different and both are peripheral countries yet population number is roughly the same. Yesterday they officially reached the triple of our deaths. I think they will still reach 4x before our numbers start to rise too (we're starting to ease our lockdown).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52737404
An interesting report on Covid in Russia (Dagestan specifically).
An interesting report on Covid in Russia (Dagestan specifically).
Even twice as high is still just 10%. So you’re talking another 5 or 6 similar sized waves to get herd immunity without a vaccine.