SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Carolina Red said:
In South Carolina, 14 of the 15 highest single day positive case totals have come in the last 15 days. Our positive test percentage has gone from 2.7% in late May to 13% as of June 10.

Meanwhile, our confederate general caught in a time warp of a governor has stated that he will not reissue a stay at home order.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/south-carolina-1st-states-reopen-now-coronavirus-cases/story?id=71217087
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What's his logic or calculus? Ultimately for political leaders, its an issue of priorities and values.

Does he think the impact wont be so bad since it disproportionately affects the minorities more and they wont vote for him anyway?
 
Amar__ said:
I stopped reading about the virus about two months ago after spending days reading about it when I was in bed with my leg injury, because it would make me depressed, but is it really possible that the mankind still have no new information about it at all?

1. Do we still have no idea if the herd immunity is a thing or are we still guessing?
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Herd immunity is always a thing but how you get there is the issue. To get herd immunity you need a sufficient percentage of the population to be immune so that the virus in question spreads to less than 1 person for every person with the infection. You generally achieve this with a vaccine but theoretically you can achieve it by letting the virus infect everyone and accepting the consequences.

The % of people required to be immune depends ona number of factors but the most important is the Ro, how infectious the virus is if nothing is done to prevent its spread. It is thought that the Ro of SARS-CoV-2 is between 3 and 4 which means we need to achieve a herd immunity target (HIT) of approx between 70 and 80%. That is a huge number of dead people if you try to achieve it withouta vaccine.

2. Can one person get infected twice(or more)? Do we get immunity after the first infection?
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We don't know for certain but it seems likely that the few reported cases of reinfection are mainly people falsly testing positive and then actually catching it later, falsly testing negative after having the disease and then testing positive again because they hadn't fully recovered or possibly having a compromised immune systemand actually getting it again. So reinfection doesn't seem to occur much.

3. Are asimptomatic people who have the virus still dangerous for people around or was that fake news? I saw some headlines few weeks ago about WHO saying those people aren't dangerous as we supposed they are?
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Hard to be sure but it seems likely that asymptomatic, pre-symtomatic and mildly symptomatic people can spread the virus to varying degrees - just not as much as fully symptomatic people do.

4. What is the real percentage of death and tough hospital cases from Covid, considering it's quite clear that pretty much every country uses skewed data and from what I have followed death while being infected with coronavirus was regulary considered as Coronavirus death when it comes to numbers.
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Hard to be sure at the moment but the fatality rate is thought to be between 0.3 and 0.5% - much higher than for the flu. Probably highercwhen medical services are poor or overwhelmed. I've seen hospitalisation rate estimates between 5 and 20% so even harder to be sure?
 
sglowrider said:
What's his logic or calculus? Ultimately for political leaders, its an issue of priorities and values.

Does he think the impact wont be so bad since it disproportionately affects the minorities more and they wont vote for him anyway?
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He’s an idiot and his voters are too.
 
Lay said:
All showing no symptoms is strange..no?
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It is, but they wouldn’t lock down the area for no reason. Let’s hope it’s faulty tests rather than all being a symptomatic. But in the words of Trump, I’m no doctor.
 
Wibble said:
Herd immunity is always a thing but how you get there is the issue. To get herd immunity you need a sufficient percentage of the population to be immune so that the virus in question spreads to less than 1 person for every person with the infection. You generally achieve this with a vaccine but theoretically you can achieve it by letting the virus infect everyone and accepting the consequences.

The % of people required to be immune depends ona number of factors but the most important is the Ro, how infectious the virus is if nothing is done to prevent its spread. It is thought that the Ro of SARS-CoV-2 is between 3 and 4 which means we need to achieve a herd immunity target (HIT) of approx between 70 and 80%. That is a huge number of dead people if you try to achieve it withouta vaccine.



We don't know for certain but it seems likely that the few reported cases of reinfection are mainly people falsly testing positive and then actually catching it later, falsly testing negative after having the disease and then testing positive again because they hadn't fully recovered or possibly having a compromised immune systemand actually getting it again. So reinfection doesn't seem to occur much.



Hard to be sure but it seems likely that asymptomatic, pre-symtomatic and mildly symptomatic people can spread the virus to varying degrees - just not as much as fully symptomatic people do.



Hard to be sure at the moment but the fatality rate is thought to be between 0.3 and 0.5% - much higher than for the flu. Probably highercwhen medical services are poor or overwhelmed. I've seen hospitalisation rate estimates between 5 and 20% so even harder to be sure?
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Hi Wibble, thank you very much for your answers!

Some things are clearer now, but basically we are still where we were 3 or 4 months ago, which is very annoying, and was annoying even in march, considering the virus was out there for few months back then too.

Also, what's with the UK numbers, I just saw and what the? :eek: Surely the death percentage of almost 14% can't be right?
 
What's happening in Sweden?
vDMsznV.jpg


Some backdated cases being lumped on or genuine worrying increase?
 
T00lsh3d said:
Me and the missus have started watching this, we’re 2 episodes in, not totally sold on it. Should we persevere?
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Probably the best tv show ever made so do yourself a favor and keep watching.
 
redshaw said:
What's happening in Sweden?
vDMsznV.jpg


Some backdated cases being lumped on or genuine worrying increase?
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Might be increased testing? That's an area in which they have lagged over the last few months but maybe they're now catching up?
 
redshaw said:
What's happening in Sweden?
vDMsznV.jpg


Some backdated cases being lumped on or genuine worrying increase?
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I think they're testing more. The deaths/cases ratio has started going down so I think they're finding more mild cases through increased testing.
 
golden_blunder said:
Hadn’t heard about that
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The area had an outbreak and went into local lockdown, just googled it and I can't find any news about it beyond the 21st May so I'm guessing they've contained it well.

Hopefully they do with this one aswell.
 
redshaw said:
What's happening in Sweden?
vDMsznV.jpg


Some backdated cases being lumped on or genuine worrying increase?
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Just increased testing. Hospitalisations and ICU numbers are going down. A lot slower than in Finland, but down nonetheless. Btw Finland has 1 patient in ICU now, top was 83 in April.
 
T00lsh3d said:
Me and the missus have started watching this, we’re 2 episodes in, not totally sold on it. Should we persevere?
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It's fecking amazing come the later seasons, and still very very good early on. DEFINITELY stick with it.
 
The episode of Breaking Bad they had to film during Lockdown ('The Fly' I believe it is called) is a great example of making the most of a bad situation.
 
The Government must think the general population of the country is thick as feck with the amount they fiddle/portray these numbers.

Oh, wait.....
 
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