SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

SirAF said:
Japan isn’t one of the most affected countries, is it? I‘m talking about going to hotspots like Northern Italy and the Wuhan region.

Japan is my #1 dream destination - enjoy it!
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It was an example as you’ve said not to travel (I may have misunderstood) but it’s definitely high up on the list. The northern Island Hokaido is in a state of emergency but you’d think they’ve got it covered out there. South Korea have been incredible with it.

Honestly it’s been mine for years, probably why my mentality about the virus is so blasé! Will give you tips if needed
 
Di Maria's angel said:
It's not entirely wrong. Given that you can pass the virus on without showing any symptoms yourself means it could easily pass through an organisation before anyone would become aware. I mean its the main reason why this virus is considered such a huge threat.
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So you agree?
 
Starkie_1 said:
It was an example as you’ve said not to travel (I may have misunderstood) but it’s definitely high up on the list. The northern Island Hokaido is in a state of emergency but you’d think they’ve got it covered out there. South Korea have been incredible with it.

Honestly it’s been mine for years, probably why my mentality about the virus is so blasé! Will give you tips if needed
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Cheers. Not to go too much off topic, but do check out the Abroad in Japan channel at YouTube for plenty of information, travel advice and general craziness.
 
Dave_MUFC said:
As Angel said above, it's got a 2 week incubation period, and some people who tested positive showed little to no symptoms at all, so someone can go by without knowing and spread it around. Canteen has a few hundred people in it at once around lunchtime, we have communal taps for boiling water, toilet doors etc. Not to mention everyone within my office has on average 3-4 meetings a day with 5-10 people in a meeting room on average.

Not a ridiculous claim at all. Do you believe that the 40 confirmed cases in the UK are actually the only infected people? In the coming weeks I reckon we'll go up to 1000's, simply because people aren't showing symptoms yet, yet have the virus already.
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1 person is not going to infect a whole company.

Your question is evidence of that.

Be cautious, but be sensible.
 
Deaths up to 52 in Italy from 18.

BA cancels some flights from the UK to US and other EU countries.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
1 person is not going to infect a whole company.

Your question is evidence of that.

Be cautious, but be sensible.
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You just moved the goalposts.

Even if you hadn't done it, it's just semantics. Quite clear what he meant and he's absolutely right.
 
Di Maria's angel said:
Why do you think its spread in Wuhan so quickly? Congested areas without knowing of its presence. Why do you think public gatherings in certain places have been banned? All this things needs is people to spread so yes I agree.
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1 person is not going to infect a whole company.

You know that. Step back and talk sensibly.
 
Arruda said:
You just moved the goalposts.

Even if you hadn't done it, it's just semantics. Quite clear what he meant and he's absolutely right.
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JEEZ. 1 person spreading to MOST of the company?.... it’s not happening.

People are being ridiculous.
 
Grinner said:
So turns out my nephew has come back from Milan with symptoms and is quarantined at home. He's awaiting his results from the doctor. Look for a case from Dartford area on the news.
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When did he return?
 
Hmmm... i was extremely ill at the beginning of January. Maybe the worst fever I've ever hard. Is it possible that it was already here then?
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
JEEZ. 1 person spreading to MOST of the company?.... it’s not happening.

People are being ridiculous.
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You understand what I meant, but twisting my words.

The point I was trying to make is that it takes one infected person to create a dominoes effect of the spread throughout the company, one other gets infected and takes it to another group in a meeting, one of those goes and transmits it to someone in the canteen etc.

Don't be so pedantic.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
JEEZ. 1 person spreading to MOST of the company?.... it’s not happening.

People are being ridiculous.
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If people go to work every day as if nothing happened then yes, it may very well do that. It infected nearly 25% of people in a cruise ship, and these people weren't all dining together ir in meetings and that happened in just 14 days. Now imagine that in a longer period and with less restrictions a 4000 people cruiseship operating normal seems like a very similar model to the sort of workplace he described.

So if you define "most" as greater than 50%, it's a very believable scenario.

Trust me, ridiculous is reaching a different conclusion witg the amount of information you have at your disposal right now.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
That’s nonsense. Think about what you e just written.

One case spreads to most of the company?!? No.
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Eh? It’s a very real threat. If one person gets it, the people around them get it - then what figure would you deem appropriate before they force people to work from home? 20? 50? 250?

It’s a virus, it spreads very easily. We’re being told it’s very possible we might be forced to stay and work from home if it keeps spreading in the UK. It’s literally the only way to stop it
 
Steve Bruce said:
I'm not a Christian by any stretch but what harm are they doing using a minute to pray?
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Because the fact they waste time or put any amount of effort into something which makes absolutely no difference to the outcome. The fact that people in power pray to an outdated idea of hope rather than make logical decisions.
 
I'm batshit crazy, have been devouring this shit every waking hour of the last two days whilst smoking dozens of euros of hash.

I always loved numbers. Straight A student at maths, won some local olympics, made a part-time living of poker (not on Tarrou's level but decent understanding of the game). Studied two years of Economics at University but didn't gradiate and went to Medicine instead. In Medicine I studied entire curricular units of fields like Mathematics, Statistics (again), Population Biology, Epodemiology, Microbiology and Public Health, among many hours. I'm also involved a bit in politics so understand a bit of policy...

Just add how stoned I am @UnrelatedPsuedo and you're in for a treat. Bring it in baby.


TlDr; Joking, I need some fecking sleep.
 
Di Maria's angel said:
Deaths up to 52 in Italy from 18.

BA cancels some flights from the UK to US and other EU countries.
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By 18, as in 18 new today. Again they are all very old and already ill.

I'd be interested to see data on the ages of the infected people rather than just death rates. It seems to infect a high proportion of old people too.
 
Arruda said:
If people go to work every day as if nothing happened then yes, it may very well do that. It infected nearly 25% of people in a cruise ship, and these people weren't all dining together ir in meetings and that happened in just 14 days. Now imagine that in a longer period and with less restrictions a 4000 people cruiseship operating normal seems like a very similar model to the sort of workplace he described.

So if you define "most" as greater than 50%, it's a very believable scenario.

Trust me, ridiculous is reaching a different conclusion witg the amount of information you have at your disposal right now.
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Wtf does your office do together that sees them operate closer together than a cruise ship? Cruise ships are a breeding ground for good reason. They’re not like offices enough. Even on a ship they had a 25% infection rate. Those conditions are not replicated in the average workplace.

It’s Alarmist.

I get the overarching point in that one contagious person can infect many. But if people follow the standing advice, 1 person is not having that much impact unless all are being careless.
 


More videos down the thread
 
Arruda said:
I'm batshit crazy, have been devouring this shit every waking hour of the last two days whilst smoking dozens of euros of hash.

I always loved numbers. Straight A student at maths, won some local olympics, made a part-time living of poker (not on Tarrou's level but decent understanding of the game). Studied two years of Economics at University but didn't gradiate and went to Medicine instead. In Medicine I studied entire curricular units of fields like Mathematics, Statistics (again), Population Biology, Epodemiology, Microbiology and Public Health, among many hours. I'm also involved a bit in politics so understand a bit of policy...

Just add how stoned I am @UnrelatedPsuedo and you're in for a treat. Bring it in baby.


TlDr; Joking, I need some fecking sleep.
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Now my hero. Hahahaha
 
Wait till this guy finds out coronavirus originated from a few people...
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
Wtf does your office do together that sees them operate closer together than a cruise ship? Cruise ships are a breeding ground for good reason. They’re not like offices enough. Even on a ship they had a 25% infection rate. Those conditions are not replicated in the average workplace.

It’s Alarmist.

I get the overarching point in that one contagious person can infect many. But if people follow the standing advice, 1 person is not having that much impact unless all are being careless.
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That 25 % rate on the cruiseship was not in a normally operating ship. As soon as the first the case was diagnosed it ceased to operate normally. I watched daily videofeeds of an infected Portuguese crewman. He was forbidden all contact with people. Everyone was basically shut in their rooms. The ones who weren't ill too.

Isn't this comparaple to large working places like factories, universities, etc? Like a cruiseship, large eating places, many shared faucetts, elevators, public restrooms... if you just remove the infected and everything else keeps operating normally the disease just keeps on spreading. Where it would stop if we didn't do nothing we don't know because we, justifiably, do not wait to find out.

In the cruise it stopped at 25% but who knows where that number would go if people were still there.
 
An email from my friend in China...Pray for all the people there!

Let me tell you about the situation in China – here’s a list of the quarantine situation in Chengdu City, China:

Chengdu (Sichuan) 16.33 million people has been locked down for about a month after three weeks of travel restrictions.
  1. Apartment complex has issued small cards, with a code that is scanned each and every time we leave and enter.
  2. No one without this card is permitted entrance into the complex.
  3. Masks are absolutely required and goggles and gloves are strongly encouraged.
  4. Until quite recently, restricted in leaving the complex to 3 times per week, and then only to buy groceries at one of two local stores.
  5. Travel beyond these two supermarkets is greatly discouraged and most other items you are told to have delivered to the front gate of the complex.
  6. If you are a delivery driver you work singly on a motorbike and are allowed access to the roads and given a special pass. These drivers are required to wear helmets with a face shield, masks, and gloves.
  7. At present the only open stores are grocery and convenience stores and these have restricted hours, and reduced staff.
  8. All other shops are closed.
  9. Closed movie theaters, coffee shops, sit down restaurants, gyms, swimming pools, bars and nightclubs, etc.
  10. All weddings or other ceremonies associated with large groups have been cancelled.
  11. (There are economic) effects but most are complying.
  12. People in my complex have been confirmed to have the virus. When this happens you are given the option to go to a quarantine center OR they will put a paper tape over your door and you can stay in your apartment for a period of time.
  13. The tape is checked daily and if it is torn you will be taken to quarantine for violating your agreement.
  14. This is what you are seeing on Youtube with people being forcibly taken – it is because they have violated quarantine.
  15. Probably a warning first.
  16. Food and essentials are then brought to you daily and delivered by special staff through an apartment outside window.
  17. Work and education conducted remotely (internet).
  18. Masks are in tight supply and can be quite expensive although cheap masks are certainly for sale from unscrupulous individuals.
  19. Streets are empty – this is unprecedented.
Even in the city where I currently am – far from the outbreak (I’m in the far Northeast of China, near Russia; Wuhan is in central China – very, very far from where I am) I can relate to a lot of these rules. Some of the very things on this list are also happening up here, in a city without all that many confirmed cases. We also need a card to leave our building and only one person can go out at a time.
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Arruda said:
That 25 % rate on the cruiseship was not in a normally operating ship. As soon as the first the case was diagnosed it ceased to operate normally. I watched daily videofeeds of an infected Portuguese crewman. He was forbidden all contact with people. Everyone was basically shut in their rooms. The ones who weren't ill too.

Isn't this comparaple to large working places like factories, universities, etc? Like a cruiseship, large eating places, many shared faucetts, elevators, public restrooms...
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In many ways, yes.

In important ways... no. Communal cutlery collection on a ship is always a contributor. As are handrails. Very tight spaces - narrow corridors and routine mass footfall pathways are another.

They’re similar. But they’re truly not the same. There’s a huge evidence base for their points of difference. They always exist as outliers.
 
AaronRedDevil said:
At this point it's just natural selection. Getting rid of the dipshits.
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Yep, with the ridiculous odds the human race survives against every nano second of our existence... to further extend those odds willfully against survival? Might as well leave and don't let the door hit you on the way out.
 
Skills said:
That's rapid. How many are infected are allegedly infected in Italy?
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It's an increase of 18, not from 18. All were elderley and already ill. None of the 52 have yet been confirmed as dying from the virus as opposed to it being the straw that broke the camels back.

There are 2036 confirmed infections in total. Half have no symptoms.
 
The world is in "uncharted territory" on the coronavirus outbreak, the World Health Organization (WHO) has said.

Doctors had "never before seen a respiratory pathogen capable of community transmission", its chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said.

Deaths globally have now passed 3,000. Most are in China but in the past day there were nine times more new infections outside China than inside.

However, Dr Tedros insisted: "We can still push this virus back".

He said the development of the Covid-19 disease globally was not a "one-way street" and could be combated if countries acted quickly and effectively - starting with containment measures.

"There is no choice but to act now," he said.

One of the countries worst affected outside China - Italy - on Monday saw a jump in its death toll from 34 to 52.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-51712437
 
Starkie_1 said:
I’m off to Japan for my honeymoon in 4 weeks. What do you suggest we do? Cancel it all, lose thousands as insurance won’t cover unless we are told we cannot go and just stay home? Planned for two years, fortune spent etc

Weird mindset to have. Call me selfish but there isn’t a chance we would consider not going unless the flights are cancelled.
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If there's no benefit to cancelling then the logical route is to just wait and see. Maybe you won't have to make a decision (it may be done for you by a flight company, government, hotel manager), but if you still have then a month is a long time in this thing, can go many ways from now until then.

Reassess in a few weeks. Shitty situation.
 
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