SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I think that people flapping about what's going on in Italy should look at this index released in 2019. It ranks Italy pretty poorly regarding the capabilities to respond to an epidemic/pandemic. It measures 195 countries in the world on numerous aspects of being able to deal with this kind of issue through the infrastructure and systems they have in place. When it comes to 'responding' to such a situation Italy ranks especially poorly in the factors they measure - 59, 11, 129, 1, 76, 90 & 1 out of 195 countries. In some regards its a third world country when it comes to ability to respond. It doesn't even appear to have a central body to deal with such a situation.

https://www.ghsindex.org/country/italy/

The US, UK, Australia (1st, 2nd & 4th respectively) rank at the top of the index. The UK ranks pretty much 1st in every section for ability to respond to this type of situation 3,1,2,1,1,9,1 against the same factors.

https://www.ghsindex.org/country/united-kingdom/

I'm not trying to say that everything is going to be OK because the overall conclusion of the Index is:

A new Global Health Security Index released today, the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across 195 countries, suggests that not a single country in the world is fully prepared to handle an epidemic or pandemic. The GHS Index is a joint project of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), with research by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). The Center for Health Security is a part of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

There's also the fact that we have to let politicians run the show but in the UK government is at least very well placed to act, unlike in Italy.

www.ghsindex.org
 
If 99% of people saw this as being little more than hype then supermarkets wouldn't currently be rationing certain products.

I've seen a few people point out that it mostly only impacts the old and the unwell but that's typically in the context of saying it isn't quite as horrendously devestating as it might otherwise have been, as opposed to them suggesting that the deaths of vulnerable people isn't a very real concern in and of itself.

I mean in a context where we're talking about schools being closed, people missing work and potentially huge economic impact, it is a positive that children and those of working age are at relatively little risk. Recognizing that isn't some sign of callous disregard for the elderly, it's a fair observation as to how things might have been worse.
 
sullydnl said:
If 99% of people saw this as being little more than hype then supermarkets wouldn't currently be rationing certain products.

I've seen a few people point out that it mostly only impacts the old and the unwell but that's typically in the context of saying it isn't quite as horrendously devestating as it might otherwise have been rather than it not being a very real concern in and of itself.

I mean in a context where we're talking about schools being closed, people missing work and potentially huge economic impact, it is a positive that children and those of working age are at relatively little risk. Recognizing that isn't some sign of callous disregard for the elderly, it's a fair observation as to how things might have been worse.
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It likely will have a huge political impact. This will sink governments and could shake up the direction of political trends across the world. It could sink Trump if things go badly in the US, for example.
 
Is there more information about any potential lasting effects of this virus? Or just any new info about the virus itself at all?
 
duffer said:
A gym that s few people at work (including the bloke who sits next to me) uses has sent an email to its members saying they've closed for a few days because a member has been diagnosed with the virus.

Hopefully everyone has been a lazy bastard recently and not gone.

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18290574.coronavirus-dorset-gym-poole-member-diagnosed-virus/
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Was thinking this the other day. I go to the gym 5/6 times a week and it seems it would be a hotspot for this sort of virus.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
I think that people flapping about what's going on in Italy should look at this index released in 2019. It ranks Italy pretty poorly regarding the capabilities to respond to an epidemic/pandemic. It measures 195 countries in the world on numerous aspects of being able to deal with this kind of issue through the infrastructure and systems they have in place. When it comes to 'responding' to such a situation Italy ranks especially poorly in the factors they measure - 59, 11, 129, 1, 76, 90 & 1 out of 195 countries. In some regards its a third world country when it comes to ability to respond. It doesn't even appear to have a central body to deal with such a situation.

https://www.ghsindex.org/country/italy/

The US, UK, Australia (1st, 2nd & 4th respectively) rank at the top of the index. The UK ranks pretty much 1st in every section for ability to respond to this type of situation 3,1,2,1,1,9,1 against the same factors.

https://www.ghsindex.org/country/united-kingdom/

I'm not trying to say that everything is going to be OK because the overall conclusion of the Index is:

A new Global Health Security Index released today, the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across 195 countries, suggests that not a single country in the world is fully prepared to handle an epidemic or pandemic. The GHS Index is a joint project of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), with research by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). The Center for Health Security is a part of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

There's also the fact that we have to let politicians run the show but in the UK government is at least very well placed to act, unlike in Italy.

www.ghsindex.org
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The US are not doing great and they're number 1
 
rcoobc said:
The US are not doing great and they're number 1
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As I mentioned, politicians are in charge at the end of the day and they have an absolute balloon in charge but they have the best infrastructure and systems according to the experts to deal with it. I heard on the radio that they're having issues with the health insurance thing and testing. That's political unfortunately. It's also why I think if this gets really bad it could have profound political implications worldwide.
 
Utdstar01 said:
Was thinking this the other day. I go to the gym 5/6 times a week and it seems it would be a hotspot for this sort of virus.
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Is a gym a particular hotspot? Its not as if people are in close proximity to each other in a gym?

Something like the tube or an average open desk office is a lot worse
 
botond said:
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Shocking but hope he still has himself tested and is cautious while waiting for the results.

There's so many cases around Europe linked to coming from Italy. Would also be awful if this person is fleeing a lockdown and passes it on to many in London.
 
Skills said:
Is a gym a particular hotspot? Its not as if people are in close proximity to each other in a gym?

Something like the tube or an average open desk office is a lot worse
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100% a hotspot. Especially the one I go to when over 80 people are there at most hours of the day. Think of how many people use different machines, pick up different apparatus in a day. If you aren't wiping sweat off of your face with a towel then you're wiping it with your hands and touching your face.
 
Skills said:
Is a gym a particular hotspot? Its not as if people are in close proximity to each other in a gym?

Something like the tube or an average open desk office is a lot worse
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I guess if you sweat a lot at the gym then there’s a lot of potential for transfer. If you’re like me, 5 x 5 sets of curls, 20 mins creeping then 45 mins in the sauna.....safe as houses
 
infetti=infected
dec=deaths

Italy
I created this on excel considering the average daily increase of infected and deaths in Italy

This is what could happen in Italy if there is not a decrease

Schermata-2020-03-08-alle-22-10-11.png
 
::sonny:: said:
infetti=infected
dec=deaths

Italy
I created this on excel considering the average daily increase of infected and deaths in Italy

This is what could happen in Italy if there is not a decrease

Schermata-2020-03-08-alle-22-10-11.png
Click to expand...

The death rate is off because you have to factor in the virus makes short work of those with pre-existing illnesses. The weak will die off quickly then you will see the death rate drop off regardless of what the infection rate does.
 
::sonny:: said:
Is what is happening now, it’s strange because the daily increase of infected is about 22%/day, the deaths increase are on 32%/day
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Important to note that the CFR% is unlikely to continue to grow in this fashion

...but the overall deaths remain at ~5% in Italy so far.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
As I mentioned, politicians are in charge at the end of the day and they have an absolute balloon in charge but they have the best infrastructure and systems according to the experts to deal with it. I heard on the radio that they're having issues with the health insurance thing and testing. That's political unfortunately. It's also why I think if this gets really bad it could have profound political implications worldwide.
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Wasn’t there also a guy who was compelled into hospital quarantine and then received a big fat bill afterwards? Hardly going to encourage poor people to seek out testing, is it.
 
::sonny:: said:
Is what is happening now, it’s strange because the daily increase of infected is about 22%/day, the deaths increase are on 32%/day
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As someone said above, you’ve got to remember the quickest to die will be those infected who are older and already fighting health issues. Providing others continue to recover, the death rate will drop.

I say this off total guess work but I cannot see a 33% death rate in any developed country. Hope I’m right!
 
::sonny:: said:
Is what is happening now, it’s strange because the daily increase of infected is about 22%/day, the deaths increase are on 32%/day
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Most likely due to testing trends rather than an actual higher rate. This is the issue will all this data coming out, the testing standards are so different across countries and even week on week that its hard to draw conclusions.

If your testing is lower than the spread then you'll hit a situation where you're testing the severely ill more than the general populus.
 
Kentonio said:
Wasn’t there also a guy who was compelled into hospital quarantine and then received a big fat bill afterwards? Hardly going to encourage poor people to seek out testing, is it.
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People will be reluctant to seek help if they think they’ll get whacked with a massive bill. I think all the states will end up doing what Michigan has done though. It has to happen.
 
LInkash said:
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What a disgraceful video! The entire video is minimizing the effect of it.

All comparisons it makes are as if the number of infected is gonna be constant from now on, when it looks it is gonna be exponential.

Sure, cancer and heart diseases (and homicides) kill more people today, but if the forecasting of 20-60% of world population getting it within the year, it can easily be the leading death cause of the year.
 
Smores said:
Most likely due to testing trends rather than an actual higher rate. This is the issue will all this data coming out, the testing standards are so different across countries and even week on week that its hard to draw conclusions.

If your testing is lower than the spread then you'll hit a situation where you're testing the severely ill more than the general populus.
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Good point.
 
RIP.

It’s seems that a lot of these deaths don’t come from patients that go in to hospital with Covid19, rather it is found in the patient when the end is near. The fact that they are doing contact tracing posthumously suggests this.

So my question is are these people dying because of Covid19 or with Covid19? That is a distinction that needs to be made IMO.
 
Just found out there’s a virus in the hospital I’ve to go to next month in Cork. Feck!
 
Adamsk7 said:
RIP.

It’s seems that a lot of these deaths don’t come from patients that go in to hospital with Covid19, rather it is found in the patient when the end is near. The fact that they are doing contact tracing posthumously suggests this.

So my question is are these people dying because of Covid19 or with Covid19? That is a distinction that needs to be made IMO.
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Nobody yet knows. The death rate was so high in China they couldn't keep up. In Italy they are still planning to verify the deaths with autopsies but that may change if it becomes too many.

Another piece of information from Italy today is that the number of people under 50 in intensive care is very small, with the majority over 65 and a peak between 75-80.

There are also a bunch of prison riots kicking off because visitors have been banned. Hopefully other European nations are watching and learning because this is all coming to them in the next few weeks.
 
11101 said:
Nobody yet knows. The death rate was so high in China they couldn't keep up. In Italy they are still planning to verify the deaths with autopsies but that may change if it becomes too many.

Another piece of information from Italy today is that the number of people under 50 in intensive care is very small, with the majority over 65 and a peak between 75-80.

There are also a bunch of prison riots kicking off because visitors have been banned. Hopefully other European nations are watching and learning because this is all coming to them in the next few weeks.
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Is it that inevitable? Do you expect to see the same thing happening in the Uk? I don’t know why actually but I just can’t see it
 
T00lsh3d said:
Is it that inevitable? Do you expect to see the same thing happening in the Uk? I don’t know why actually but I just can’t see it
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I think the UK is actually one of the more likely places for it to happen. If the virus really takes hold and you start restricting people's freedoms at a time they feel most vulnerable, i could definitely see people lashing out.
 
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