SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

esmufc07 said:
Italy confirmed cases upto 15,113 from 12,462 yesterday. Now over 1,000 deaths.
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Grinner said:
fecking hell...they are losing the battle
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To be expected. It's going to be 10 days before we start seeing the effects of the lockdown in the case numbers. We could have 50,000 cases by then.


What's most frustrating is that other towns like Bergamo and Brescia quickly overtook the original quarantine towns but they were allowed to function as normal and spread it to everybody else. Had they immediately shut those down too Italy would be in a much better place.
 
Tucholsky said:
Different stages of the the outbreak.
UK has at the moment 8.7 cases per 1million of population.
Denmark has nearly 120 cases per 1million of poulation

Different stages mean different measures.
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You would then be of the opinion that the UK (and other countries) should time their policies based on Italy's experience? Interesting thesis, would love to hear you elaborate on that.
 
sullydnl said:
But for those measures have to be timed properly for maximum effect and so they don't start coming undone just as the virus is peaking.

For example, school closures in Ireland back when the first case was detected in a school would demonstrably have been less effective than school closures now, because feck all of the cases since then would have been impacted. Yet people were still wrongly clamouring for school closures at that point, despite it repeatedly being pointed out that it was too early. All that would have done is hinder the overall attempt to reduce the viruses' peak and the same applies to every other measure. They need to happen at the right time.
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They have to be done now. Otherwise were just reacting to the exponential spread. Why is the closing of museums, large social gatherings not necessary yet? Have you not seen Italian PM Conte addressing Italy that there would be no more gatherings, no more night life, etc and it was already too late. Their CFR is around 8% theres no such thing as timing it perfectly, we need to act now.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Fair play to that one woman with a full trolley of water bottles.

In a country that has safe drinking water..
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To be fair, I thought that but someone in Portugal said to me it's in case something to the plants or something. As unlikely as that is, no harm
 
MaxiPaxi said:
Yeah, but the point is; by closing up shop in the country, we'll be effectively bottlenecking the infection rate and thus the NHS will hopefully not be as overwhelmed if we didn't take drastic measures. Look at data in China for inside Hubei and outside, by effectively shutting down the whole country they've managed to flatten the curve. Yet, I've seen you harp on here how quarantine, cancelled mass gatherings et al won't help. You're arguing with real data from China which clearly shows to the contrary.
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Do you believe Sir Patrick Valance and Chris Witty are not aware of this, or alternatively do you think they are aware, but are trying to best deal with the factors they can control in the UK and not Hubei?
 
Pexbo said:
The guidance so far is that everything can be done remotely and for two of my modules that’s definitely the case. For our dissertation (not in my case but I’m sure for a lot) access to the library is essential. Best case scenario is an extension and not actually suspended.
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BTW, most textbooks are available online if you know where to look ;)
 
TMDaines said:
Do you believe Sir Patrick Valance and Chris Witty are not aware of this, or alternatively do you think they are aware, but are trying to best deal with the factors they can control in the UK and not Hubei?
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It would seem they're making terrible decisions despite being aware. You have to realise we have a PM in charge who thinks we should just take it on the chin and take it all in one go. So I've absolutely no confidence in the government or their way of dealing with this pandemic.

 
0le said:
BTW, most textbooks are available online if you know where to look ;)
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I’m not sure the University is going to tell us they can be found online with a wink face.
 
0le said:
They don't need to. Most students know already.
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Of course they do but their reasoning for not giving us an extension isn’t going to be “despite paying us £9000 you’re going to either have to buy the textbooks online or source them illegally”
 
MaxiPaxi said:
They have to be done now. Otherwise were just reacting to the exponential spread. Why is the closing of museums, large social gatherings not necessary yet? Have you not seen Italian PM Conte addressing Italy that there would be no more gatherings, no more night life, etc and it was already too late.
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There are different circumstances in different countries so unless you have access to the data and the modelling they're working off it's impossible to say when exactly each country should implement each measure. That's why even countries that are following the exact same broad principle in terms of delaying certain messures generally (like the UK and ROI) are implementing different measures at different times. It's all context dependent. It's all also dependent on the models they're using and the directions they decide to go in. So direct comparisons between countries are difficult.

In general what you can say though is that these countries are striving for a delayed, flat peak. Which means both reducing the total number of people who might get infected and ensuring more of those who do get infected do so on either side of that peak.

In other words the UK (for example) needs a certain amount of the population to have become infected, been taken care of and recovered before the peak comes in (according to them) 10-14 weeks. What they don't need is to stop those people from getting infected in the period before the peak, only to then have them add to the peak.

So the answer as to why it's not necessary for them to implement more severe measures now is that, according to their modelling, that won't help spread infections out in the way they're looking to achieve. It would instead result in fewer infections now (when it can be handled) and more infections later (when it can't). It's a difficult balancing act.
 
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Pexbo said:
Of course they do but their reasoning for not giving us an extension isn’t going to be “despite paying us £9000 you’re going to either have to buy the textbooks online or source them illegally”
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What is your point? I only made that comment to raise awareness to the minority of people that don't know about that resource.
 
Wait, did Trump really say they are not banning UK because they are doing a “good job” controlling the virus? I mean, what exactly have UK done so far?
 
Rhyme Animal said:
Why is the death toll so much higher in Iran though...?

If they're digging burial pits the size of fields, what is the actual real deal with virus?

The whole situation with Iran makes it harder to trust / gauge official numbers from all countries (not just Iran).
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Read through this. It's increasingly likely the situation in Iran is completely out of control. And now a top official has tested positive. It must be absolutely everywhere. And some are advocating for this to spread so we recieve herd immunity -- it's a frightening thought.



 
MaxiPaxi said:
It would seem they're making terrible decisions despite being aware. You have to realise we have a PM in charge who thinks we should just take it on the chin and take it all in one go. So I've absolutely no confidence in the government or their way of dealing with this pandemic.

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This is Dominic Cummings talking through Boris Johnson.
 
0le said:
What is your point? I only made that comment to raise awareness to the minority of people that don't know about that resource.
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My point is the point I was originally making in the post you quoted. People need access to the library for their dissertation and it’s one of the resources they have paid £9000 a year for. Our dissertation is due on April 2nd and if we don’t have access to that resource then it’s very likely they will have to give us an extension.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
They have to be done now. Otherwise were just reacting to the exponential spread. Why is the closing of museums, large social gatherings not necessary yet? Have you not seen Italian PM Conte addressing Italy that there would be no more gatherings, no more night life, etc and it was already too late. Their CFR is around 8% theres no such thing as timing it perfectly, we need to act now.
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Why do you think you know better than what the experts are clearly advising Boris to do? As another poster said they are well aware of what China has done, and what Italy and some others are doing, perhaps as these things evolve different responses do aswell, or timing of them at least.

I find it weird that so many think they know better than what the experts are saying.

We've just been told the rational behind how the UK is responding, and it's not difficult to understand.
 
Rob said:
This is surreal. Just been sent home from work for at least two weeks, the gym is closed, the stores are empty because cnuts suddenly think they need to buy 1000 packs of toilet paper and I have no idea what to with myself the next 14 days. With how we’ve treated the planet for the past 100 years, I suppose we had it coming.

Wanking and PlayStation it is.
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Hence sales of toilet paper
 
Imagine every other country containment measures working, only to be shat on by the UK trying the "heard immunity" theory and "getting it on the chin"
 
Did anybody see the video of that Basketball player at a press conference last week? He decided to play a practical "joke" on the journalists there and touched all their equipment. Turns out he has now tested positive for Coronovirus.

Fecking weirdo.
 
sullydnl said:
There are different circumstances in different countries so unless you have access to the data and the modelling they're working off it's impossible to say when exactly each country should implement each measure. That's why even countries that are following the exact same broad principles (like the UK and ROI) are implementing different measures at different times. It's all context dependent.

In general what you can say though is that these countries are striving for a delayed, flat peak. Which means both reducing the total number of people who might get infected and ensuring more of those who do get infected do so on either side of that peak.

In other words the UK (for example) needs a certain amount of the population to have become infected, been taken care of and recovered before the peak comes in (according to them) 10-14 weeks. What they don't need is to stop those people from getting infected in the period before the peak, only to then have them add to the peak.

So the answer as to why it's not necessary for them to implement more severe measures now is that, according to their modelling, that won't help spread infections out in the way they're looking to achieve.
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The aim is to have a peak as flat as possible. What is this thing about people getting infected either side of the peak? The R0 can be brought down by changing how we live our lives until we have a vaccine, there is no other way round it. It's going to spread no matter what but we can try to control how many of 15% will need hospital treatment. We can have a CFR like
China where in the overall CFR varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China )
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Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

How is that hard to grasp, there in no other way around it. Look at the countries that managed to contain it and their measures and you'll see exactly what needs to be done.
 
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C'est Moi Cantona said:
Why do you think you know better than what the experts are clearly advising Boris to do? As another poster said they are well aware of what China has done, and what Italy and some others are doing, perhaps as these things evolve different responses do aswell, or timing of them at least.

I find it weird that so many think they know better than what the experts are saying.

We've just been told the rational behind how the UK is responding, and it's not difficult to understand.
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Because the UK plan is essentially to just take it on the chin. We could be doing more. History will not look back kindly on these decisions of people too keen to try and remain calm and not make tough disruptive decisions.
 
Pexbo said:
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If this happens it's going to royally feck up my plans. I've got hand ins on April 2nd and Viva and Exams at the end of April then I'm done with Uni. I was planning on wrapping up and going back to work as soon as my hand ins are done but if it's extended and all our hand ins are pushed back to summer it's going to be a major headache.
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That's one of the symptoms.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
The aim is to have a peak as flat as possible. What is this thing about people getting infected either side of the peak? The R0 can be brought down by changing how we live our lives until we have a vaccine, there is no other way round it. It's going to spread no matter what but we can try to control how many of 15% will need hospital treatment. We can have a CFR like

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

How is that hard to grasp, there in no other way around it. Look at the countries that managed to contain it and their measures and you'll see exactly what needs to done.
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So what sustainable measures do you think they should be bringing in to last the year or more until a vaccine is available?
 
MaxiPaxi said:
Exactly.
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It's also nuts. It's like in quantitative work when there's some flash cnut with a new idea, when there's loads of methods that are tried/tested which will do the job well.

Some of his advice is just bizarre.
 
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