SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Tarrou said:
I'll probably get flamed for this, but just an idea...

Assumptions;

- if you get it once you can't get it again
- Virtually zero chance we get a vaccine rolled out for 18months+
- 70%+ of us are getting this in the next two years anyway

Some sweeping assumptions there but If they are correct, and you are healthy and under 30 with the ability to work from home/self-isolate - doesn't it make sense to just get the virus to help us move closer to herd immunity?

If I was in that demographic and it was an option I'd consider it just so to decrease the chance I pass it to my folks within the next couple of years (and I can visit them without worrying about exposing them).

tldr young people should take one for the team and have Coronavirus parties
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If you had unlimited hospital space and staff then yeah this would be what you'd do. However we obviously don't and those under 50 are still needing hospitalisation (at a reduced rate obviously).

We can't afford for anyone who could avoid it to take up beds as it will impact mortality rates.
 
2cents said:
Croke Park drive-through test centre in Dublin:

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Any idea how this works - how quick are people getting results?

Someone i work with got tested on a Tuesday, was then given the all clear over the phone on the Friday, to be called straight back to say there had been a mix up and that those werent his results, only to be given the all clear a week later! All in, it took 10 days to get results
 
Pexbo said:
There's lots of reports of 20-40 year olds ending up critically ill and some people only finding out about their underlying condition thanks to the virus. Individually you might fancy your chances but there will be plenty of people where luck is not on their side.
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I think that's because they make the news. The death rate is still very low, about 1 in 500 from known case from the Chinese and Italian stats I think. I think the idea that younger people are at risk is alarmist when you consider your chance of dying in a car crash in a lifetime in the US is about 1 in 100.

Not that I agree that we should be aiming for unrestrained herd immunity as a policy.
 
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Heardy said:
Any idea how this works - how quick are people getting results?

Someone i work with got tested on a Tuesday, was then given the all clear over the phone on the Friday, to be called straight back to say there had been a mix up and that those werent his results, only to be given the all clear a week later! All in, it took 10 days to get results
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I’m not sure at all, consensus seems to be it takes a couple of days worldwide, but some places like South Korea seem to move faster.

I’m hoping this 15-minute test currently being developed here turns out to be reliable and cheap, but it’s probably not gonna work that way.
 
Pexbo said:
There's lots of reports of 20-40 year olds ending up critically ill and some people only finding out about their underlying condition thanks to the virus. Individually you might fancy your chances but there will be plenty of people where luck is not on their side.
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That is why I put one of my assumptions is that most of us get it. If there is a significant chance that isn't true the plan is bollocks.

Though I hadn't thought about not knowing you have an underlying condition, that's a very good point. But still, those people are getting it anyway.
 
I hope 70% getting it in the next two years is overestimated. 70% don't catch flu, or any other disease, on average - is it that contagious?
 
Grinner said:
Well then aren't we fecked? How can life resume for at-risk groups if you can't find people who are safe to interact with them?
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Either yesterday or the day before the powers that be (in UK I think) said that the development of a test that does this is a priority, so I'm sure they'll get it done but wouldn't want to put a timescale on it.
 
2cents said:
I’m not sure at all, consensus seems to be it takes a couple of days worldwide, but some places like South Korea seem to move faster.

I’m hoping this 15-minute test currently being developed here turns out to be reliable and cheap, but it’s probably not gonna work that way.
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That NYT columnist that was interviewed on Bloomberg (?) seemed to suggest there was a 4hr while you wait turnaround service in China.
 
Grinner said:
Does the same test for the virus confirm that somebody who has recovered from it had the virus?

@Arruda
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Yeeeee- kind of. There are two major types of tests. Virus are really really small and hard to detect so one test takes a sample, then sees if it can make a lot lot more until they show up. Another test checks to see if you have antibodies AKA you were/are infected and your body is making those antibodies. (this is the oh-wow-only-takes-15-minutes one) So that second type of test could test for what you're asking. The second one isn't as reliable as the first one.
 
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hungrywing said:
Yeeeee- kind of. There are two major types of tests. Virus are really really small and hard to detect so one test takes a sample, then sees if it can make a lot lot more until they show up. Another test checks to see if you have antibodies AKA you were/are infected and your body is making those antibodies. (this is the oh-wow-only-takes-15-minutes one) So that second type of test could test for what you're asking. The second one isn't as reliable as the first one.
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Link to the second test? Gov were pretty explicit a couple of days ago that no such test exists, yet.
 
Right, I'm getting frustrated at the way clear information on this fecker is being provided. I have so many questions and am not sure where to get them answered. I think we need a thread for vital information only...no discussion...so that members can become better informed. We have so many people from different countries providing fantastic information but it gets lost in the big discussion thread.

I want your suggestions for what to include, and then I want a few volunteers who will commit to updating for us. For instance @11101 can give us the daily brief from Italy. Who else?

Please do not clog this thread with any bullshit. I want ideas and volunteers so we can do our bit to inform people.

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases
https://www.bing.com/covid

Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country, Territory, or Conveyance
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Links from NHS (UK), UK Govt and WHO

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/coronavirus-covid-19-uk-government-response

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Basic Q&A's from WHO site ... https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses

Charts progress of countries in relation to Italy

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/

Daily summary for the UK
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Mobile version of the regional stats cases map for the UK - let's you zoom in on your local area.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae
 
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hungrywing said:
Yeeeee- kind of. There are two major types of tests. Virus are really really small and hard to detect so one test takes a sample, then sees if it can make a lot lot more until they show up. Another test checks to see if you have antibodies AKA you were/are infected and your body is making those antibodies. (this is the oh-wow-only-takes-15-minutes one) So that second type of test could test for what you're asking. The second one isn't as reliable as the first one.
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It's not even available yet, is it? Or did Whitty just paraphrase to mean that it is not worth doing.
 
Drawfull said:
Link to the second test? Gov were pretty explicit a couple of days ago that no such test exists, yet.
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Which government? This isn't brand new cutting edge tech. Any developed country will be able to develop one reasonably quickly.



Translation of article in spoiler:
# 钟南山 队 发展 Quick and convenient detection reagents #: Blood can be tested in 15 minutes and the results are available] A reporter from Guangzhou Daily reported from the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University and the Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Health that the team of Academician Zhong Nanshan and the respiratory infection expert at the hospital Ye Feng's group recently published a paper online in the Journal of Medical Virology, describing for the first time the development of SARS-CoV-2 IgM-IgG combined antibody detection reagents and its application in the clinical diagnosis of new crown virus infectious diseases.

According to reports, the test reagent can be tested only by dripping blood, and the result can be obtained in about 15 minutes, greatly reducing the detection time (the viral nucleic acid RT-PCR test takes 3-4 hours to produce results). Multi-center clinical specimen testing and evaluation confirmed that the sensitivity of the test reagent for clinical detection is as high as 88.66% and the detection specificity is 90.63%; the sensitivity of the IgM-IgG combined antibody test is much higher than that of IgM or IgG single antibody test (94.83% vs 1.72% and 3.45%). In addition, the antibody detection reagent used fingertip blood and venous blood test results for comparison, and found that the consistency of the two detections basically matched; suggesting that the SARS-CoV-2 IgM-IgG combined antibody rapid detection kit can be used as an instant detection ( POCT). Blood can be collected at the bedside with your fingertips for examination. This heralds a more convenient screening approach. (Weng Shuxian, Correspondent of Guangzhou Daily, Correspondents Wang Wenxi and Han Wenqing)
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http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/07/WS5e63521aa31012821727d239.html

According to the developer, three antibody reagents for COVID-19 have been approved by the European Union and exported to countries including Italy, Austria and the Netherlands.
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zing said:
Guardian says it's not effective in severe cases, though? So not really useful right? Since we know the mild cases recover. Unless the severe cases are also containable when it's still mild.
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I think that's the crunch really. Does it stop some people from needing an ICU bed? If it does, then it helps.

Lots of drugs are being trialled in various ways, many of them are repurposed drugs (avoiding some of the trial/testing steps). I don't think they'll find a "cure" but they might find some treatments that reduce the death toll and the strain on hospital services.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
I think that's because they make the news. The death rate is still very low, about 1 in 500 from known case from the Chinese and Italian stats I think. I think the idea that younger people are at risk is alarmist when you consider your chance of dying in a car crash in a lifetime in the US is about 1 in 100.

Not that I agree that we should be aiming for unrestrained herd immunity as a policy.
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1/500 is not exactly low odds when you're working on a macro level, even if you assume that only 1/10 cases were identified and it was actually 1/5000. There is around 20m people in the UK aged between 20 and 40. If 40% got infected and 1/5000 of them died, you're looking at 1600 dead. With our health service under that sort of strain I expect it would be magnitudes higher.
 
Sarni said:
I hope 70% getting it in the next two years is overestimated. 70% don't catch flu, or any other disease, on average - is it that contagious?
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Seems to be much more contagious than flu, I thought?

Also the fact that there are so many vulnerable and even regular folk who get the yearly flu jab. We have nothing for this.
 
jojojo said:
Don't worry, once the warmer weather arrives - they will. They'll even charge for them on the door to the barn and have live music
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If anything (at least here), it's the younger generation between 20-30 who takes it very seriously and raises a lot of awareness on social media, and it's the 65+ people who are still ignorant and go on about their daily business. I think they don't yet realize how serious it is because they usually don't have access to social media and only get information from the TV news, which rarely shows the whole picture.
 
Probably not the time to make light of spelling mistakes in The Grauniad, and this is pretty sobering news but:

Sune Engel Rasmussen, middle east corespondent for the Wall Street Journal and formally of this parish, has tweeted the results of a study from Iran’s Sharif University which reveal

  • If Iranians cooperate with government guidelines now, 12,000 are likely to die
  • If they cooperate in a limited way, 110,000 are likely to die
  • If there is no cooperation the outbreak is likely to peak in June and cause 3.5m deaths.
 
RobinLFC said:
If anything (at least here), it's the younger generation between 20-30 who takes it very seriously and raises a lot of awareness on social media, and it's the 65+ people who are still ignorant and go on about their daily business. I think they don't yet realize how serious it is because they usually don't have access to social media and only get information from the TV news, which rarely shows the whole picture.
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It's been a struggle to get my mum to isolate. Unbelievably, the theatre nurse next door thinks it's all bullshit and isn't worried at all. She thinks her job will be easy because there will be no operations. I was gobsmacked.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
I think that's because they make the news. The death rate is still very low, about 1 in 500 from known case from the Chinese and Italian stats I think. I think the idea that younger people are at risk is alarmist when you consider your chance of dying in a car crash in a lifetime in the US is about 1 in 100.

Not that I agree that we should be aiming for unrestrained herd immunity as a policy.
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The point isn't really the mortality rate though. It's the fact people require medical attention thereby pressuring the medical capacity and thus making the general mortality rate go up.
 
justboy68 said:
Are you or anyone nearby able to set her up with some type of video calling software on a computer? One that you can make simple for her with a list of contacts and tell her just to leave on. I don't know if it's feasible but could be an idea.
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We provided her with an iPad and we must have shown her how to use it 20 times and she couldn’t even swipe right on the screen to open it. We gave her a mobile phone, she turns it off to save battery even when we tell her constantly to leave it on and have it in her pocket. She’s of the generation that neither understands the technology or wants it and that creates massive problems in this situation. In other words she has helped herself over the years and sadly it’s too late to change that. I am tempted to buy one of those Facebook screens as that can’t be too difficult for her to press the screen to accept a call. Never thought I would buy one!
 
Pexbo said:
There's lots of reports of 20-40 year olds ending up critically ill and some people only finding out about their underlying condition thanks to the virus. Individually you might fancy your chances but there will be plenty of people where luck is not on their side.
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The death rate for 20-40 year olds is 0.2%. Doesn't mean you should roam around outside and get infected but that is very low.
 
RobinLFC said:
If anything (at least here), it's the younger generation between 20-30 who takes it very seriously and raises a lot of awareness on social media, and it's the 65+ people who are still ignorant and go on about their daily business. I think they don't yet realize how serious it is because they usually don't have access to social media and only get information from the TV news, which rarely shows the whole picture.
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I'd agree with that - on social media. On the other hand I personally know 20 somethings who still decided to fly out to Amsterdam for the weekend (and were just disappointed by the bar/cafe closures). I also know that a lot of people were describing last weekend as "but it might be my last chance to visit London/training/rehearsals for a while".

It's easier to talk distancing/isolation for a couple of weeks, than to be told that's going to be your life for months. We've already had plenty of stories of people told to self-isolate, who carried on going to the gym, playing football, going in to work.

Individual responsibility is a complex thing and different people will come to terms with it at different times, and some will go backwards rather than forwards.
 
Josep Dowling said:
We provided her with an iPad and we must have shown her how to use it 20 times and she couldn’t even swipe right on the screen to open it. We gave her a mobile phone, she turns it off to save battery even when we tell her constantly to leave it on and have it in her pocket. She’s of the generation that neither understands the technology or wants it and that creates massive problems in this situation. In other words she has helped herself over the years and sadly it’s too late to change that. I am tempted to buy one of those Facebook screens as that can’t be too difficult for her to press the screen to accept a call. Never thought I would buy one!
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Never underestimate how absurdly difficult tech can be to some people. Frequent updates that change the UI etc are particularly bad news!
 
Pagh Wraith said:
The death rate for 20-40 year olds is 0.2%. Doesn't mean you should roam around outside and get infected but that is very low.
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Which is not a low number especially if we're talking about 40-70% of the population getting infected at some point.
 
Anyone got any tips on how to get hold of paracetamol? Haven't been any for days now in our supermarkets. If you get up and go at 6am has anyone been getting any? I must stress these aren't for me either but for my parents.
 
Sarni said:
I hope 70% getting it in the next two years is overestimated. 70% don't catch flu, or any other disease, on average - is it that contagious?
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It’s not about how contagious it is. It’s because it’s a novel virus. Variations of flu have been around forever, so there’s a lot of natural immunity around already and a long-standing vaccination program. NOBODY is immune to this unless they’ve already caught it.
 
Pagh Wraith said:
The death rate for 20-40 year olds is 0.2%. Doesn't mean you should roam around outside and get infected but that is very low.
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It’s very high for the 0.2% who end up dead. And the many multiples of that who end up critically ill, hooked up to a ventilator.
 
Sarni said:
I hope 70% getting it in the next two years is overestimated. 70% don't catch flu, or any other disease, on average - is it that contagious?
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The reason 70% don't get the flu is that there is already herd immunity. It's why we don't hear much about swine flu anymore, so many people got it immunity built up.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
A list of useful and reliable data resources would be helpful
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2 good ones here
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

This idea would be massively appreciated, though I couldn't add much, not too many people will be interested in how the virus is developing here in Cambodia.
@Pogue Mahone would be useful for medical updates.
Other clear updates on the whether cases are rising or falling in various countries that can be quickly picked out
Also clear factual new steps different governments are taking
If people want to discuss they could quote and take posts to the other threads, so this one would be information only
I wonder if it was also worth setting up a twitter thread like the transfer one, but again only reliable sources allowed
 
I'm curious about a couple of things.

For those people who typically don't get flu jabs, assuming one is safe and effective, will you be getting the covid jab? Looking at death rates by flu, if available, will you now get flu jabs?

For a covid vaccine, what would be a suitable price? This one is a very complex question and differ in each country due to who ultimately pays. I fear that this could drive distribution time. What happens if say a German company develops the vaccine. Assume Germans will be first in line. Who is next? EU? Highest bidder? Now switch German company with US or China. I don't think we've faced anything like this before have we?

Unlike other drugs, will places like the UK pay the going rate like Americans do if an American company produces this?

Throwing in another complexity. What happens if two or more vaccines are developed with different effectiveness. Who gets each one? Usually the market sorts this out with first to market getting the head start and years later comparative data allowing superior drugs to take over. In this instance the data won't exist or won't be mature enough to really understand the difference. There's going to be some dice rolling.
 
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