SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Zlatan 7 said:
Does this mean he would have had it a couple of weeks without showing any symptoms or feeling ill? And now they’ve found out he’s got it. So how long do you have this before you even show any illness?
Click to expand...

A certain % contract the illness and never show symptoms. Usual onset of symptoms is between 2-14 days with an average of around 5.2. I think there have been some outliers that have taken longer but they seem to be very rare.
 
Zlatan 7 said:
Does this mean he would have had it a couple of weeks without showing any symptoms or feeling ill? And now they’ve found out he’s got it. So how long do you have this before you even show any illness?
Click to expand...
On average around 5 days but the problem is that a lot of people who are infected don't even show any symptons at all so there's no way to know without testing.
 
Raoul said:
On the FT site - I'd monitor the US, UK, and India curves closely in the coming days. The lack of testing in India and the US should make global numbers soar in the near term imo.
Click to expand...
13.3k tested in India so far (not including today).

Anywhere I can check this up against figures from other countries? Looks quite low.
 
Managed to find some pasta and toilet paper in a shop near me, not that I needed any so I left it.

Lucky too, as it turns out they were charging £5 for a pack of four and the owner was arguing with a customer about it. He seemed genuine saying most smaller suppliers have marked everything up ridiculous prices and that he has been not putting the price up himself, but now has to or simply not stock it. I'm not sure how true that is, but I wouldn't doubt it for a second there's many pocketing off of this.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
A certain % contract the illness and never show symptoms. Usual onset of symptoms is between 2-14 days with an average of around 5.2. I think there have been some outliers that have taken longer but they seem to be very rare.
Click to expand...
RobinLFC said:
On average around 5 days but the problem is that a lot of people who are infected don't even show any symptons at all so there's no way to know without testing.
Click to expand...

So it’s been a few weeks since this man came back, he’s likely to be one of the % that doesn’t show or have any symptoms. But he would have infected his wife when he got back but it’s been a couple of weeks and until she shows symptoms? (I don’t know if she even has)

It’s so strange and scary at the same time.

Anyone know the percentage of people who catches this without ever knowing or showing symptoms ? How can you have a virus come and go without even knowing about it!?
 
Zlatan 7 said:
So it’s been a few weeks since this man came back, he’s likely to be one of the % that doesn’t show or have any symptoms. But he would have infected his wife when he got back but it’s been a couple of weeks and until she shows symptoms? (I don’t know if she even has)

It’s so strange and scary at the same time.

Anyone know the percentage of people who catches this without ever knowing or showing symptoms ? How can you have a virus come and go without even knowing about it!?
Click to expand...
This recent Forbes article mentions 17.9% show no symptons, don't know how accurate that is or if the sample size is big enough but it's definitely a significant part, I'd say.

I'm by no means an expert so can't answer your second question with any certainty but I'd guess that the body of young people produces antibodies quickly enough so that you don't get sick / show symptons.
 
RobinLFC said:
This recent Forbes article mentions 17.9% show no symptons, don't know how accurate that is or if the sample size is big enough but it's definitely a significant part, I'd say.

I'm by no means an expert so can't answer your second question with any certainty but I'd guess that the body of young people produces antibodies quickly enough so that you don't get sick / show symptons.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the link. That’s a high percentage!
 
dwd said:
Sounds like better numbers for us (the UK) today?

63 new cases and only 4 deaths. That can't be right?
Click to expand...

I dont think England has announced today yet, that might just be Wales and Scotland so far, it gets updated throughout the day as more regions announce new figures
 
Zlatan 7 said:
So it’s been a few weeks since this man came back, he’s likely to be one of the % that doesn’t show or have any symptoms. But he would have infected his wife when he got back but it’s been a couple of weeks and until she shows symptoms? (I don’t know if she even has)

It’s so strange and scary at the same time.

Anyone know the percentage of people who catches this without ever knowing or showing symptoms ? How can you have a virus come and go without even knowing about it!?
Click to expand...

No-one really knows just how many people don't show symptoms. There are a couple of studies that have come up with estimates (basically best guesses at this point). One says about 17%, but is based on an average age of 60 and incomplete data, another estimates just over 30%. The 30% one has a giant confidence interval (anything from 7 - 50%).
 
To some it's just like a normal flu. Bit of fever and a cough. Others get it like pneumonia. Testing is the only way to find out. Korea was testing about 16,000 per day. Most people die due to lack of facilities. The Japanese flu vaccine is working on most people unless they are the extreme cases. HIV vaccine is also working but none of these are approved by the western countries. The USA has no equipment and other stuff required too. The Chinese seem to be the only country where they can supply these to the other countries. They have sent a lot to Europe and other Asian countries.
The USA need them too but Trump has a sanction against China so the US suppliers can't import them to USA.
Bojo doesn't know if he is sitting on his arse or standing up.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
No-one really knows just how many people don't show symptoms. There are a couple of studies that have come up with estimates (basically best guesses at this point). One says about 17%, but is based on an average age of 60 and incomplete data, another estimates just over 30%. The 30% one has a giant confidence interval (anything from 7 - 50%).
Click to expand...
Thanks
 
TwoSheds said:
No science is right but some science is clearly wrong. You need to have a long hard think about why our government chose the riskiest possible advice rather than listening to the scientists who have successfully tackled it in China and South Korea. The answer, as always, is bias. They liked the results so they assumed it was correct even though the assumptions were flawed at a basic level as the majority of scientists pointed out.
Click to expand...

This. It makes a ton of sense to me that the US and the UK would be among the last countries to put welfare over continuing production and profit.
 
Ekkie Thump said:
No-one really knows just how many people don't show symptoms. There are a couple of studies that have come up with estimates (basically best guesses at this point). One says about 17%, but is based on an average age of 60 and incomplete data, another estimates just over 30%. The 30% one has a giant confidence interval (anything from 7 - 50%).
Click to expand...

It's thought that the younger you are the less likely you are to show symptoms too. My guess is that the asymptomatic are at the high end of the margin of error.
 
can't order anything online, tesco, ocado, amazon fresh are all fully booked. my local tesco and sainsburys full of empty shelves now. i've ordered hello fresh for next week, might just stick to that for the time being (and hope they can maintain demand).
 
Are supermarkets holding back stock? I don’t understand if they haven’t been yet - they don’t keep things off the shelves and reserve them for those most in need. It’s shite and will be a slow process but people are assholes which has been shown with the empty shelves.
 
11101 said:
The UK is not China and it's not South Korea. To blindly listen to others would be a huge mistake. There is no other country with the same makeup of health services, population and cultures. And no scientist or expert you have seen in the media knows what they all are unless they are employed by the government and given access to that information, and even then some things are just an unknown. Good modelling relies on proper inputs and a constant adaptation of those inputs in response to new information. That seems to be exactly what the UK has done.
Click to expand...

Look you're obviously a believer, there's probably not much point me arguing with you but I'll make one last point. The WHO, South Korea, China, Italy etc etc had a lot of information about death rates, intensive care rates, R0 etc for this virus. All of it naturally has levels of uncertainty associated, but there was absolutely no need to make assumptions based on viral pneumonia unless they were just bluffing their way through on a wing and a prayer. They should have been ready given the advance warning they had and they still don't seem to know what they want to do about it other than react piecemeal as they get stick from different quarters. Anyway, I'm out now, feck Boris.
 
Place has gone mad over toilet rolls be careful very strong language..

 
Giggs86 said:
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-...381.html?ncid=facebook_yahoonewsf_akfmevaatca

One big family, 3 died and another 3 in critical condition. No underlying conditions. What am I missing here?
Click to expand...
Horribly, and tragically for the family concerned, it's often these kind of cases that let the researchers get new insight into what influences the disease - whether that turns out to be genetic or otherwise. Sometimes the clues they find in the tragedies give them other clues in terms of treatment or vaccine development.
 
Are all stoners complete feckhead conspiracy theorists? Got a couple of 'mates' who smoke a lot and both of them think this is a conspiracy.

Latest Facebook pearl -

"Strangle small business, reduce community interaction, divide people, discourage cash-handling, coerce the people and leave all the pickings for the big companies, perhaps? "

Such an edge lord :wenger:
 
TwoSheds said:
No science is right but some science is clearly wrong. You need to have a long hard think about why our government chose the riskiest possible advice rather than listening to the scientists who have successfully tackled it in China and South Korea. The answer, as always, is bias. They liked the results so they assumed it was correct even though the assumptions were flawed at a basic level as the majority of scientists pointed out.
Click to expand...
I'd be very sceptical about China. South Korea have done great, and so have Singapore, but both of these countries benefited massively from the infrastructure they developed and the learning they could take from the SARS outbreak. This lecture is very informative. Our society could not have possibly responded the way they did.
 
Garethw said:
I hope so mate. we are running low on nappies and baby formula :(
Click to expand...
I'm not saying there are scummy people out there but there is plenty on Amazon if you have wads of cash, seems people went in and picked up a 'little' bit more than they needed.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.