I've been wondering how long we can expect to be in lockdown recently, for me this is week 6 of home working/social distancing/isolation/whatever you want to call it, and week 4 of actual lockdown.
Taken from Italy, where lockdown was gradually tightened to the whole county between 8 and 10 March, and then on 20 March tightened even further to exclude all non essential outdoor movement. The highest number of cases was reached 13 days after 8 March, and 22 days later the government is finally saying whilst we are still right at the peak, there is a downward trend emerging, especially in hard hit areas that took the lockdown seriously from day 1.
China hit their peak almost 6 weeks ago and are only now emerging from restrictions in badly hit areas. Their downward trend was also slower than the initial growth (ignore that one day where they changed the testing criteria).
Obviously the absolute numbers are all going to be off, but as long as the testing criteria stay the same in each country, it gives a representation of the trend. These are the figures the Italians are using and the Chinese used to assess the effectiveness of the measures they had put in place.
I'd say based on the above, Italian restrictions won't be relaxed until May and the UK is a couple of weeks behind, at least.