8 days means each patient is a massive use of resources if they are critical the whole time. That's got to be really hard on the families too.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
8 days is from symptom onset, ascertained when they are admitted to hospital and diagnosed (they're not generally being tested until then). Hospitalisation to death is 5 days.
@Grinner The Lancet explains the study that I read, if you are interested.
Unfortunately I've been checking on my boss who's late 60s as he's had symptoms. Couldn't contact him today and just got a call from another colleague to say he's being taken to hospital. 87% sats, temperature. They say his chest sounds ok though which is odd.
I agree no-one likes a show off or know it all. Or just a rude idiot.
Nope. Not really. The virus caused people to get sick but an overwhelmed health service caused a higher mortality rate than you see in the early stages of the epidemic, before they had to start rationing access to ITU beds.
Sorry to hear that. Those are very low sats. Hope he’s ok.
The stats regarding male:female deaths (2 fig2) are startling.
Reading now. Out of interest, are doctors able to tell that hypertension exists when a patient is admitted, or is it all down to what's in their medical record?
The best way to keep death rate low in the initial weeks of the epidemic is by really aggressive, extensive community testing. That way you pick up all the milder cases. Theoretically, that information can also be used in contact tracing to limit community spread. Unfortunately, it seems not many countries have the resources to test as extensively as Germany, South Korea or Norway. I know Ireland wanted to take the same approach but almost immediately ran out of testing capacity so had to drastically cut back on eligibility for testing.
Once the epidemic gets properly established, the more ITU beds per capita the lower the mortality rate. Although only 50% of people admitted to ITU will survive. So the impact of those extra beds is limited.
It is but remember it's Italy. More men are catching it as they refuse to stay indoors (there are plenty of old men walking up and down my street all day pretending to go grocery shopping) and dying from it as they smoke like chimneys.
just been on the bbc that 393 people have sadly died in the uk in the last 24 hrs . Very sad news and a significant rise from yesterday . Hopefully this is not the start of a steep increase in numbers . The report didnt say what the new confirmed cases were .
Medical record. You can’t diagnose hypertension based on blood pressure when a patient first presents. It’s something that is monitored/treated over a period of time.
Aye, that's different. If we're posting information we should do our best to make sure it's legit. Same thing with whatsapp rumours, there's no need to blindly spread nonsense just because it happens to have come across your path, especially if you're clued in enough to really know better.
If someone genuinely doesn't know or understand something though then that's alright. None of us are experts and a lot of people are gonna be worried enough by all of this without people impolitely jumping on them for not grasping how a log scale graph works or whatever.
Are lots of people still flouting the regulations then @11101 ? I thought that by now the whole of Italy is very tightly locked down
393 dead today in UK 
393 dead today in UK
Wasn't today the day they included people who passed while at home
Yes I believe so.
No, I wouldn't have thought so either. Ireland explicitly said they were trying to follow the South Korean model but still had to go into lockdown anyway, as it's not quite replicable here. Most countries will be trying to find a middle ground, I guess.
Anyone know more information about these CPAP (Continuous positive airway pressure) machines that Mercedes are apparently producing? How quickly are these likely to be distributed en masse?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52087002
Apologies if this discussion has already taken place.
Dr. John Campbell is very optimistic that this could massively reduce the pressure on the healthcare system, as well as the bodies of those hospitalised, and eventually ventilated/intubated.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52087002
Apologies if this discussion has already taken place.
Dr. John Campbell is very optimistic that this could massively reduce the pressure on the healthcare system, as well as the bodies of those hospitalised, and eventually ventilated/intubated.
All from previous days or just the last 24 hours?
Yeah they've included deaths at home up to the 20th March so far, which was 40 they announced earlier
It's a chronic condition so it can only be diagnozed over a relatively long period of time. So it's done with the medical record, when you are admitted they will simply note that you have an elevated blood pressure and monitor it.
We had an interesting press conference today. The doctors read out the numbers of dead and newly discovered, added that this is a consequence of a lack of discipline and stormed out.
A 24/7 curfew is incoming...
A 24/7 curfew is incoming...
I doubt anyone admitted to hospital wouldn’t have an elevated BP. I’d be bloody petrified!
So I have a colleague working in Northern Italy who has said their ward is all patients on CPAP machines. It does seem to work quite well.
The issue though is that CPAP is an aerosol generating procedure (AGP), which means it basically sprays aerosols (containing the virus) all over the place. Most London trusts have actually stopped using NIV (of which CPAP is a part) due to the risk of this.
AGPs by themselves can still happen (and we are still having to do them anyway). Problem is that the current PPE guidance in the UK is a bit of a shambles anyway (surgical mask, apron and gloves for Covid confirmed patients), partly because we don't have enough of the full kit. Being around a patient while they're having an AGP means you need the full PPE ie:
We don't currently have enough of this to be doing AGPs regularly on normal wards.
That is as much of a barrier as availability of the CPAP machines.
So I have a colleague working in Northern Italy who has said their ward is all patients on CPAP machines. It does seem to work quite well.
The issue though is that CPAP is an aerosol generating procedure (AGP), which means it basically sprays aerosols (containing the virus) all over the place. Most London trusts have actually stopped using NIV (of which CPAP is a part) due to the risk of this.
AGPs by themselves can still happen (and we are still having to do them anyway). Problem is that the current PPE guidance in the UK is a bit of a shambles anyway (surgical mask, apron and gloves for Covid confirmed patients), partly because we don't have enough of the full kit. Being around a patient while they're having an AGP means you need the full PPE ie:
We don't currently have enough of this to be doing AGPs regularly on normal wards.
That is as much of a barrier as availability of the CPAP machines.
Have you seen the presentation doing the rounds about the PPE protocol for the Chinese HCWs transferred to Wuhan? They had incredibly thorough protection. Including people who spent all day doing nothing but checking and helping don/doff PPE for their colleagues. End result, 42000 additional workers with 0% infections. Unbelievable really.
Also, yeah, everyone seems to be shit scared of NIV. The initial advice from China was avoid at alll costs but that stance does seem to be changing. Still a very risky tactic in hospitals like ours, where PPE is limited, at best.
It's relative. The streets are extremely quiet but you do notice the same few people walking up and down multiple times per day with the same shopping bag in their hand.
Toby Young at his finest here.
@Ole90+3 My missus uses a cpap machine as she has sleep apnea . They work by forcing air into the airway via a mask which fits over the mouth and nose . A motor pulls air from the room and forces it into the mask , Imagine a hairdryer , air being sucked in and funnelled through a hose into the mask . The one she uses senses how much air she is needing to keep her airway open and adjusts flow accordingly . I suspect the ones being developed must also add oxygen into the mask as from what i understand , covid patients need a substantial amount of extra oxygen .
It's going to go a lot higher than this.
So I have a colleague working in Northern Italy who has said their ward is all patients on CPAP machines. It does seem to work quite well.
The issue though is that CPAP is an aerosol generating procedure (AGP), which means it basically sprays aerosols (containing the virus) all over the place. Most London trusts have actually stopped using NIV (of which CPAP is a part) due to the risk of this.
AGPs by themselves can still happen (and we are still having to do them anyway). Problem is that the current PPE guidance in the UK is a bit of a shambles anyway (surgical mask, apron and gloves for Covid confirmed patients), partly because we don't have enough of the full kit. Being around a patient while they're having an AGP means you need the full PPE ie:
We don't currently have enough of this to be doing AGPs regularly on normal wards.
That is as much of a barrier as availability of the CPAP machines.
Does the bubble helmet thing they are using in Italy help with that?
Things are happening here in small Norway now, My local regional hospital has developed its own corona test so they are no longer in need of imported products for testing. A new emergency ventilator (combination of old hand ventilator and mechanical pumping) has been designed by a defence research company and a private company and will start production mid April. Government has ordered 1000 units but says production capacity will be increased and we will not need them all here, so we will help other nations also. Many private companies, 3d-printing groups and high schools are using new designs and 3d printing to make face masks for health personnel. Private persons in what we call "sewing unions", often old ladies, also schools that are doing sewing etc, are producing PPE dresses. Liquor factories have produced liquid disenfectants etc. Norway is mobilizing through the people in what we call "Dugnad", norwegian old tradition for local cooperation to help eachother. Great to see that this nation has not forgotten what it once was. People are coming together and uniting more and more. Great to see. We might not be large or have much production at home of everything but things can get done when there is will and togetherness.
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19 year old with no underlining health problem dies in the U.K.
12 year old with no underlining health problem dies in Belgium.
I’m starting to think this depends on how bad you get it and it can kill anyone
12 year old with no underlining health problem dies in Belgium.
I’m starting to think this depends on how bad you get it and it can kill anyone
Imagine how hot and uncomfortable that is? And are they wearing it for 10-12 hour shifts?So I have a colleague working in Northern Italy who has said their ward is all patients on CPAP machines. It does seem to work quite well.
The issue though is that CPAP is an aerosol generating procedure (AGP), which means it basically sprays aerosols (containing the virus) all over the place. Most London trusts have actually stopped using NIV (of which CPAP is a part) due to the risk of this.
AGPs by themselves can still happen (and we are still having to do them anyway). Problem is that the current PPE guidance in the UK is a bit of a shambles anyway (surgical mask, apron and gloves for Covid confirmed patients), partly because we don't have enough of the full kit. Being around a patient while they're having an AGP means you need the full PPE ie:
We don't currently have enough of this to be doing AGPs regularly on normal wards.
That is as much of a barrier as availability of the CPAP machines.
It doesn't really matter how obvious it is. It's not really in law and if it was there'd be rioting. People are adhering to it based entirely on their trust in the system and the people in charge of managing what to do...and here the level of trust would already have been very low, and on top of that the people in charge who are meant to know what's going on, keep changing their fecking minds.
On top of that, half of what we are getting told just isn't true. Apparently I only have to go out to exercise and get my own shopping, but actually I've been out more than I usually would because it turns out I also have to get both my parents shopping seperately because they are both on the at risk list and are getting zero help from the government...and I can't even get things in one go because of all the item limits in supermarkets. So I'm being told to stay in at all costs but also forced to be out and among other people 3x as much as should be necessary.
At a certain point people, particularly when in a stressful situation, start to wonder if the system is helping or hindering them.
I don't think a lot of other countries have this level of distrust or dissorganisation. I've spoken to friends in Sweden and Germany. The restrictions are similar but they have both said their governments have been very clear and consistent the whole time and just given them the facts, and people are generally getting help where needed.
Unfortunately I think the route of the problem is that the people running things in this country just aren't particularly smart.
Just caught the end of a segment on LBC that said the government hasn't done any modeling as to at what point the measures against coronavirus would cause a greater loss of life than coronavirus itself.
It said that modelling suggests the 2008 recession cost more days of life than coronavirus would have with no government counter measures whatsoever.
I'd like to see the statistics because intuitively to me it feels like if the measures are maintained for a few more weeks the economic effect on life will be worse than the virus would've been.
It said that modelling suggests the 2008 recession cost more days of life than coronavirus would have with no government counter measures whatsoever.
I'd like to see the statistics because intuitively to me it feels like if the measures are maintained for a few more weeks the economic effect on life will be worse than the virus would've been.