SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pogue Mahone said:
Have you seen the presentation doing the rounds about the PPE protocol for the Chinese HCWs transferred to Wuhan? They had incredibly thorough protection. Including people who spent all day doing nothing but checking and helping don/doff PPE for their colleagues. End result, 42000 additional workers with 0% infections. Unbelievable really.

Also, yeah, everyone seems to be shit scared of NIV. The initial advice from China was avoid at alll costs but that stance does seem to be changing. Still a very risky tactic in hospitals like ours, where PPE is limited, at best.
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Yep, they've perhaps gone slightly overboard with it but its worked. I don't know why we're struggling so much to pick up appropriate PPE but it isn't helping staff morale. 3 doctors have died already in the UK, I believe a nurse has as well.

And for sure. I certainly wouldn't see a patient on the ward on NIV without proper PPE right now.


11101 said:
Does the bubble helmet thing they are using in Italy help with that?
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It does help but I still wouldn't be 100% comfortable that they're stopping the aerosols and wouldn't see a patient without the proper PPE, even if they had that hood on.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Have you seen the presentation doing the rounds about the PPE protocol for the Chinese HCWs transferred to Wuhan? They had incredibly thorough protection. Including people who spent all day doing nothing but checking and helping don/doff PPE for their colleagues. End result, 42000 additional workers with 0% infections. Unbelievable really.

Also, yeah, everyone seems to be shit scared of NIV. The initial advice from China was avoid at alll costs but that stance does seem to be changing. Still a very risky tactic in hospitals like ours, where PPE is limited, at best.
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That is absolutely unbelievable!!
 
432JuanMata said:
19 year old with no underlining health problem dies in the U.K.
12 year old with no underlining health problem dies in Belgium.
I’m starting to think this depends on how bad you get it and it can kill anyone
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Happens with any serious illness even flu there is always an unlucky number that succumb just isn't pushed in your face on the news everyday.

Still incredibly sad, but its incredibly rare.
 
432JuanMata said:
19 year old with no underlining health problem dies in the U.K.
12 year old with no underlining health problem dies in Belgium.
I’m starting to think this depends on how bad you get it and it can kill anyone
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Any virus if you're very unluckly or catch it at the wrong time can kill an otherwise healthy person. The flu kills thousands of otherwise relatively healthy people per year.

It's also not clear what "no underlying health conditions" really means. It doesn't necessarily mean the person is fit and healthy.

Generally the sevidence suggests the overall mortality rate for this is probably less than 1%, which suggests it's only a significant risk to someone who is already in a vulnerable state...but that does add up to a lot of people and you will also get the odd one off instance. This is why hospitals already struggle in the winter when other viruses such as influenza are more prominent.

Plus, the last time they said a young person with no underlying health conditions died of it here, it turned out they died of a heart attack. I'm not a medical professional but I'm fairly certain you can't die of a heart attack without there being an underlying health condition, and I'm even more certain you can't die of a heart attack directly because of corona virus.
 
Shane88 said:
Imagine how hot and uncomfortable that is? And are they wearing it for 10-12 hour shifts?
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Yeah, its truly stifling. In China, they were wearing it for a maximum of 6 hours.

In our hospital, we're saying optimally 2 hours before you come out of it and a maximum of 4.

Genuinely even just a surgical or respirator mask is quite stifling when you've been wearing it for even 20-30 minutes.
 
432JuanMata said:
19 year old with no underlining health problem dies in the U.K.
12 year old with no underlining health problem dies in Belgium.
I’m starting to think this depends on how bad you get it and it can kill anyone
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When they say no underlying health problems, I assume they mean no known underlying health problems? Which is possibly a different thing, especially if it's a health problem that would have been diagnosed as they got older.

Not that it makes it any less grim. :(
 
finneh said:
Just caught the end of a segment on LBC that said the government hasn't done any modeling as to at what point the measures against coronavirus would cause a greater loss of life than coronavirus itself.

It said that modelling suggests the 2008 recession cost more days of life than coronavirus would have with no government counter measures whatsoever.

I'd like to see the statistics because intuitively to me it feels like if the measures are maintained for a few more weeks the economic effect on life will be worse than the virus would've been.
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I predicted from the start that the current measures would lead to greater long-term problems and losses of life. The current trajectory could lead to big social unrest and even regional conflicts around the world - the fight for resources would become bigger than ever.

I'm seriously disappointed in the lack of drastic cooperation to deal with this unforeseen crisis. To me it seems like a lot of the big countries are trying to isolate themselves and protect their own first, when this will have devastating effects on the whole world. But I guess the rich are expecting to still survive after the big hit, leaving the poor nations to fend for themselves. It's staggering that the EU or even NATO have had no actual plan in dealing with such severe and sudden circumstances. It makes me wonder what would the reaction be if actual serious conflicts were to happen in closer proximity to the major players in those alliances.
 
Grinner said:
Reading now. Out of interest, are doctors able to tell that hypertension exists when a patient is admitted, or is it all down to what's in their medical record?
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Still a bit puzzling to me the hypertension one. Some governments, including the UK don't even list it as a risk factor as far as I can remember and other do. I am a bit suspicious that it's potentially blood pressure medication causing something here. Pure speculation though.
 
noodlehair said:
Any virus if you're very unluckly or catch it at the wrong time can kill an otherwise healthy person. The flu kills thousands of otherwise relatively healthy people per year.

It's also not clear what "no underlying health conditions" really means. It doesn't necessarily mean the person is fit and healthy.

Generally the sevidence suggests the overall mortality rate for this is probably less than 1%, which suggests it's only a significant risk to someone who is already in a vulnerable state...but that does add up to a lot of people and you will also get the odd one off instance. This is why hospitals already struggle in the winter when other viruses such as influenza are more prominent.

Plus, the last time they said a young person with no underlying health conditions died of it here, it turned out they died of a heart attack. I'm not a medical professional but I'm fairly certain you can't die of a heart attack without there being an underlying health condition, and I'm even more certain you can't die of a heart attack directly because of corona virus.
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This is true..to an extent. Some of the people I'm seeing written about 'no comorbidities' have actually been obese for example. Now, that isn't a comorbidity per se but certainly isn't healthy for you either and your organs will already be under more strain than it should be.

Some people actually are getting what's called myocarditis from Covid-19 and some studies suggest its the cause of death in 7% and a contributing factor in up to 1/3 of patients. You don't necessarily need to have a medical issue to get myocarditis but it obviously increases your chances of surviving it if you are otherwise healthy.

While Covid itself is horrible, I'm actually still more concerned by its effects on the general HC system. For multiple reasons. It fills up ITUs. That means other patients who should go to ITU aren't anymore. I had a quick peek at our (humungous) ITU yesterday. There were 2 non Covid ARDS patients out of 35. They're keeping beds open pretty much only for Covid.

We've cancelled all but emergency surgeries.

People are scared to come to hospital now. Which means we're seeing things that are quite unusual in this day (for example, heart wall rupture, which we so rarely see now in the PCI era for heart attacks). I am convinced that patients are dying at home because these emergency presentations haven't suddenly disappeared into thin air. Our admissions for STEMIs (the most severe heart attacks) and strokes have both gone down. We've stopped accepting neurosurgery patients. Which means patients we may be operating on and saving lives....we're now not.

And we're still not at the peak yet.
 
noodlehair said:
Any virus if you're very unluckly or catch it at the wrong time can kill an otherwise healthy person. The flu kills thousands of otherwise relatively healthy people per year.

It's also not clear what "no underlying health conditions" really means. It doesn't necessarily mean the person is fit and healthy.

Generally the sevidence suggests the overall mortality rate for this is probably less than 1%, which suggests it's only a significant risk to someone who is already in a vulnerable state...but that does add up to a lot of people and you will also get the odd one off instance. This is why hospitals already struggle in the winter when other viruses such as influenza are more prominent.

Plus, the last time they said a young person with no underlying health conditions died of it here, it turned out they died of a heart attack. I'm not a medical professional but I'm fairly certain you can't die of a heart attack without there being an underlying health condition, and I'm even more certain you can't die of a heart attack directly because of corona virus.
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It might be better to say 'no known underlying health conditions'.
 
finneh said:
Just caught the end of a segment on LBC that said the government hasn't done any modeling as to at what point the measures against coronavirus would cause a greater loss of life than coronavirus itself.

It said that modelling suggests the 2008 recession cost more days of life than coronavirus would have with no government counter measures whatsoever.

I'd like to see the statistics because intuitively to me it feels like if the measures are maintained for a few more weeks the economic effect on life will be worse than the virus would've been.
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I made that argument weeks ago to argue that a lockdown had to be held back as long as possible, but it is not a popular one. I've never been in doubt that the knock-on effects of the coronavirus situation will cost far more healthy life years than the virus itself.
 
noodlehair said:
It doesn't really matter how obvious it is. It's not really in law and if it was there'd be rioting. People are adhering to it based entirely on their trust in the system and the people in charge of managing what to do...and here the level of trust would already have been very low, and on top of that the people in charge who are meant to know what's going on, keep changing their fecking minds.

On top of that, half of what we are getting told just isn't true. Apparently I only have to go out to exercise and get my own shopping, but actually I've been out more than I usually would because it turns out I also have to get both my parents shopping seperately because they are both on the at risk list and are getting zero help from the government...and I can't even get things in one go because of all the item limits in supermarkets. So I'm being told to stay in at all costs but also forced to be out and among other people 3x as much as should be necessary.

At a certain point people, particularly when in a stressful situation, start to wonder if the system is helping or hindering them.

I don't think a lot of other countries have this level of distrust or dissorganisation. I've spoken to friends in Sweden and Germany. The restrictions are similar but they have both said their governments have been very clear and consistent the whole time and just given them the facts, and people are generally getting help where needed.

Unfortunately I think the route of the problem is that the people running things in this country just aren't particularly smart.
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It is in law though. That's the point to a degree. Everyone was asked initially yet seemed to want to find ways to get around it so legislation has now been passed. Also if you are a carer you do have a travel exemption so that covers your additional movement.

At the end of the day we police by consent however some people will continue to be selfish and continue to disobey instructions. Those people need enforcement as there's simply no other way.
 
Supermarkets lifting restrictions on item limits. Great. I already struggle to buy chicken as it is.
 
TMDaines said:
I made that argument weeks ago to argue that a lockdown had to be held back as long as possible, but it is not a popular one. I've never been in doubt that the knock-on effects of the coronavirus situation will cost far more healthy life years than the virus itself.
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Yep I've been saying this since the start (or at least saying it should be an important consideration) but it actually seems to make people quite angry.

You also have to account for the fact there are millions in this country already living in poverty and with high levels of stress on their mental and physical wellbeing...and a lot of those have now had their income taken away.

I think realistically you're only looking at about 2 weeks before it's a very big problem.
 
finneh said:
Just caught the end of a segment on LBC that said the government hasn't done any modeling as to at what point the measures against coronavirus would cause a greater loss of life than coronavirus itself.

It said that modelling suggests the 2008 recession cost more days of life than coronavirus would have with no government counter measures whatsoever.

I'd like to see the statistics because intuitively to me it feels like if the measures are maintained for a few more weeks the economic effect on life will be worse than the virus would've been.
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It would be quite hard to do that sort of modelling given a) the extent of the economic crisis is dependent on what other countries do too and b) the impact of the economic crisis is dependent on the economic response, which is also heavily dictated by other countries and future policy decisions. It's not for nothing that some argue that austerity cost lives rather than the crash itself. And as a side note, the UK would presumably also have less influence on the response of their neighbouring countries post-Brexit than they would have pre-Brexit.

In that context I'm not sure how much agency the UK would gain by prioritising the economy more, independent of what other countries were doing. They'd still be awash in a global crisis, having presumably just been hit harder than other countries in terms of direct coronavirus deaths. Tough call to make at a point when the economic consequences are more difficult to predict that the immediate health consequences.
 
Bosws87 said:
Happens with any serious illness even flu there is always an unlucky number that succumb just isn't pushed in your face on the news everyday.

Still incredibly sad, but its incredibly rare.
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noodlehair said:
Any virus if you're very unluckly or catch it at the wrong time can kill an otherwise healthy person. The flu kills thousands of otherwise relatively healthy people per year.

It's also not clear what "no underlying health conditions" really means. It doesn't necessarily mean the person is fit and healthy.

Generally the sevidence suggests the overall mortality rate for this is probably less than 1%, which suggests it's only a significant risk to someone who is already in a vulnerable state...but that does add up to a lot of people and you will also get the odd one off instance. This is why hospitals already struggle in the winter when other viruses such as influenza are more prominent.

Plus, the last time they said a young person with no underlying health conditions died of it here, it turned out they died of a heart attack. I'm not a medical professional but I'm fairly certain you can't die of a heart attack without there being an underlying health condition, and I'm even more certain you can't die of a heart attack directly because of corona virus.
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sullydnl said:
When they say no underlying health problems, I assume they mean no known underlying health problems? Which is possibly a different thing, especially if it's a health problem that would have been diagnosed as they got older.

Not that it makes it any less grim. :(
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Thanks for the replies I guess it can catch anyone off guard, it is very low(near non existent) at a young age but it’s so sad to see
 
TMDaines said:
I made that argument weeks ago to argue that a lockdown had to be held back as long as possible, but it is not a popular one. I've never been in doubt that the knock-on effects of the coronavirus situation will cost far more healthy life years than the virus itself.
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What knock on effects are you thinking of? Economic / mental health & wellbeing?
 
africanspur said:
Yep, they've perhaps gone slightly overboard with it but its worked. I don't know why we're struggling so much to pick up appropriate PPE but it isn't helping staff morale. 3 doctors have died already in the UK, I believe a nurse has as well.

And for sure. I certainly wouldn't see a patient on the ward on NIV without proper PPE right now.




It does help but I still wouldn't be 100% comfortable that they're stopping the aerosols and wouldn't see a patient without the proper PPE, even if they had that hood on.
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At least you might soon be wearing a Lamborghini mask :D

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/british/land-rover-has-deployed-27-new-defenders-battle-coronavirus
 
Heardy said:
What knock on effects are you thinking of? Economic / mental health & wellbeing?
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All of those. Long term people left without jobs or income who were already near the mark.

Short term, people struggling to get basic needs such as food. People not getting basic care and being forced to stay indoors or self isolate. People dying of other illnesses or conditions which could be due to a lack of care or lack of regular activity, or mental stress caused by any of the thousands of things a lockdown affects. Relationships put under strain, etc.

It really does add up very quickly, and this is a more extreme circumstance that we've seen before. If the government haven't considered it at all then it's very likely to overshadow the virus itself in the medium and long term.
 
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Hopefully this will result in a more coherent, single-island approach. Allowing the below to continue is stupid.

 
11101 said:
It's relative. The streets are extremely quiet but you do notice the same few people walking up and down multiple times per day with the same shopping bag in their hand.
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I went for a run the other day at my usual time and there were at least 10 times as many people out walking their dogs, and that's no exaggeration. They are literally only out walking their dog BECAUSE they've been told not to go out unless it's essential.

I wouldn't say it was doing any harm except there were so many of them it was actually impossible for everyone to stay 2 metres apart.

Which comes back to me thinking that a majority of the deaths this whole thing will cause either directly or indirectly, will have a factor of stupidity involved.
 
noodlehair said:
All of those. Long term people left without jobs or income who were already near the mark.

Short term, people struggling to get basic needs such as food. People not getting basic care and being forced to stay indoors or self isolate. People dying of other illnesses or conditions which could be due to a lack of care or lack of regular activity, or mental stress caused by any of the thousands of things a lockdown affects. Relationships put under strain, etc.

It really does add up very quickly, and this is a more extreme circumstance that we've seen before. If the government haven't considered it at all then it's very likely to overshadow the virus itself in the medium and long term.
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It’s not talked about enough, but the US already had a serious ‘death by despair’ problem lingering before all of this.

It will only get worse.
 
noodlehair said:
All of those. Long term people left without jobs or income who were already near the mark.

Short term, people struggling to get basic needs such as food. People not getting basic care and being forced to stay indoors or self isolate. People dying of other illnesses or conditions which could be due to a lack of care or lack of regular activity, or mental stress caused by any of the thousands of things a lockdown affects. Relationships put under strain, etc.

It really does add up very quickly, and this is a more extreme circumstance that we've seen before. If the government haven't considered it at all then it's very likely to overshadow the virus itself in the medium and long term.
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People seem to underestimate just how globalised the world is. Such an extreme economic collapse will literally affect every industry and sector. The struggle for resources will be immense and social unrest will rise to very dangerous levels.

The world leaders need to act as quick as possible and find the most suitable and balanced measures that can be taken everywhere. The current situation is just delaying the inevitable and causing even more long-term damage. Just the fact that there was no precautionary plan by the likes of the EU, NATO, WHO, WTO, UN etc is seriously worrying me. It tells me that the world is not prepared for any sort of global crisis of this stature.
 
finneh said:
Just caught the end of a segment on LBC that said the government hasn't done any modeling as to at what point the measures against coronavirus would cause a greater loss of life than coronavirus itself.

It said that modelling suggests the 2008 recession cost more days of life than coronavirus would have with no government counter measures whatsoever.

I'd like to see the statistics because intuitively to me it feels like if the measures are maintained for a few more weeks the economic effect on life will be worse than the virus would've been.
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As far as I know these models usually ignore that there would be a recession anyway, if the virus ran through the world without strict measures taken against it. It's not like people would continue to work and shop as before while thousands of people are dying around them. You also can't just leave the suffering people alone and ignore them. They would overwhelm the hospitals in a completely uncontroled way. Worst case is that you let hundreds of thousands of people die and run into a massive recession anyway, that'll cost even more lifes on top of it.
 
noodlehair said:
Yep I've been saying this since the start (or at least saying it should be an important consideration) but it actually seems to make people quite angry.

You also have to account for the fact there are millions in this country already living in poverty and with high levels of stress on their mental and physical wellbeing...and a lot of those have now had their income taken away.

I think realistically you're only looking at about 2 weeks before it's a very big problem.
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Aye, and posters on here and around Europe are desperate to demonize us in Sweden for not locking down yet, but every single day we are reminded at the 14:00 press conference by the health ministry (it’s not the government running the show here), that there are only two ways out of this and anything we do such as social distancing, working from home, sick leave extended with no doctors note etc etc etc has to be able to work for months. They cannot believe countries are “locking down” early because of the adverse effects and the end game. If you have a stable number of people going into ICU, what is locking down achieving? A vaccine won’t be here in 3 weeks.
But the situations in Italy and Spain have understandably made people shit the bed. And now you’ve got daft things going on in the UK that defy all logic, like police drones shaming people for being out for a hike in the Peak District with not another person in sight. How the feck does that help stopping Covid-19? Lots of people have lost sight of what is trying to be achieved here.
I predict anarchy in Southern Italy within the next month.
India is already a total cluster feck.
 
fergieisold said:
Still a bit puzzling to me the hypertension one. Some governments, including the UK don't even list it as a risk factor as far as I can remember and other do. I am a bit suspicious that it's potentially blood pressure medication causing something here. Pure speculation though.
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Look at the video from the asian-american doctor in the stickied info thread. It tells you how the virus kills and why hypertension matters.
 
finneh said:
Just caught the end of a segment on LBC that said the government hasn't done any modeling as to at what point the measures against coronavirus would cause a greater loss of life than coronavirus itself.

It said that modelling suggests the 2008 recession cost more days of life than coronavirus would have with no government counter measures whatsoever.

I'd like to see the statistics because intuitively to me it feels like if the measures are maintained for a few more weeks the economic effect on life will be worse than the virus would've been.
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Lockdown will be extended up to and including first few weeks of May imo. Very wise considering the death toll numbers will be even more brutal in that period. After that it becomes much more difficult to implement due to weather, bank holidays and general boredom so think restrictions will be partly lifted by then unless the death toll remains very bad. Hopefull the curve will have flatterned and started to decline a little by that point.

Mind you you get plenty of people arguing on here and other forums it has to be a full lockdown for the rest of the year. Simply not feasible. Even the Deputy medical officer didn't really advise that in the press conference the other day when she put in the sixth month period.
 
Balu said:
As far as I know these models usually ignore that there would be a recession anyway, if the virus ran through the world without strict measures taken against it. It's not like people would continue to work and shop as before while thousands of people are dying around them. You also can't just leave the suffering people alone and ignore them. They would overwhelm the hospitals in a completely uncontroled way. Worst case is that you let hundreds of thousands of people die and run into a massive recession anyway, that'll cost even more lifes on top of it.
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Exactly. Its not a direct comparison that can be made
 
Italy down again, at least in Lombardy. Also for the first time the number of current ICU patients is down. More people were released/died than were admitted.
 
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