I guess it's impossible to implement effectively in public transport when everyone is out of lockdown. It might take a while to have enough trains and buses to mitigate the spread. It's just a matter of how much of the spread of the virus can be attributed to the use of public transport which I think is quite high unfortunately.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
I guess it's impossible to implement effectively in public transport when everyone is out of lockdown. It might take a while to have enough trains and buses to mitigate the spread. It's just a matter of how much of the spread of the virus can be attributed to the use of public transport which I think is quite high unfortunately.
Does anyone know where I can get # of tests carried out in the UK per day? Tabulated preferably.
As I've mentioned though, what worries me is the long weekend, if there's been a lack of reporting for 4 days, it might take a couple of days after the holidays to catch up. If the trend continues downwards for the rest of the week, we may have hit peak thankfullyUpdated graph of deaths in England by day of death. Decent news from NHS England today. Due to the long weekend I thought there'd be a big rise in reported deaths, instead the opposite happened and they fell to 651 (-93) by 5pm yesterday. Gives some hope that we may well be just around or just past the peak. Let's hope tomorrow is similar.
Orange is a 5 day trailing average (last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes):
i'd imagine there will be multiple things considered, two things that seem easy wins would be continued working from home for anyone who can do so; and if you do have to go into the office or workplace, greater staggered start and finish times to avoid the commuter rush. maybe more closures to stations if the network is getting too busy each morning. won't be perfect but in London anyway it will help easing that morning rush as everyone tries to start work at 9am.
It'll be laborious but if you scroll to the "latest updates" section of this page on Worldometers and follow the source it'll link you to each DHSC update. Contained within that update is a breakdown of the tests per day for that individual day. I don't know of any page where these are collated into a readily digestible format though.
Yeah, I expected there'd be a bump but today was the first day that backlog was likely to show itself. The fact it hasn't yet is grounds for hope at least.
This is a ridiculous take. So if we are not able to develop a vaccine, despite their being an unprecedented amount of attention, work and money pumped in the efforts to develop one, and if there's no immunity, despite this not being necessarily likely, and if it turns out that the subsequent infections are significantly worse each time, which again is not necessarily likely, then we are looking at the extinction of the human race. Of course that's only if there aren't any advancements in treatments (again unprecedented amount attention, work etc. and so forth), general virology, education and the behaviour of the general public or any extreme measures that would surely be taken if there would be a world ending virus on the loose.
Sure, if all of those conditions are met then humanity might be wiped out, it's a possibility. But it's not likely now, is it? There's also a possibility that another completely unrelated and far deadlier virus might emerge or an asteroid could hit Earth or a gamma ray burst could happen or Yellowstone might erupt or one of the current dumb world leaders could trigger a nuclear war or any one of the other million doomsday scenarios might happen. They're all possible, but none of them are likely and unless your intention is to fear monger they have no real place in any reasonable argument, point or prediction.
I like your graphs, thanks for posting them, very interesting to see it from "day of death" perspective.
761 deaths reported.
Not the totally grim number that had been predicted. Still a lag from the bank holiday or a sign of turning the corner?
Not the totally grim number that had been predicted. Still a lag from the bank holiday or a sign of turning the corner?
Thats a good point. I was expecting today or tomorrow, as a normal weekend (Sat/Sun) would show on Tuesday, this week we've had Friday/Saturday/Sunday/Monday, so i was expecting a lag Tuesday/Weds, then true numbers Thursday or Friday. Just my thought based on the amount of days theres been a lack of reporting and the size of the backlog, but as you say, today was a possiblility of true numbers and as of yet, it's holding stable. Reasons for hope there i'd say... fingers crossed!
My head says it's still a lag from Easter, with it being a long weekend, but my heart says i hope to god that we're turning the corner and this is the beginning of the plateau. I've got my fingers crossed that my heart is right... tomorrow and Friday will confirm i think.
There have been some indications of antibody-dependent enhancement (as is seen in Dengue) with Covid-19. A couple of papers have found that patients with severe disease frequently had an increased IgG response and a higher titre of total antibodies.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.12.20035048v1
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20030437
This also correlates with earlier reporting on SARS. A study in 2019 found that IgG antibodies targeting the SARS binding protein can result in more severe disease due to immune modulation.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7108264/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30830861
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21937658
This may mean that a lot of vaccine approaches will encounter pretty serious issues. There are other, less optimal routes for vaccine development including the targeting of different viral proteins or eliciting different antibody responses such as mucosal IgA responses (which is what my group is trying to do).
Only 15000 odd tests still for the middle of April? 100000 tests a day by the end of April seems more like a pipe dream at this point
The attempts at moral judgement in your posts are shameful.
Yesterday you went on a rant about how some posters want chaos to ensue in Sweden so they can relish in schadenfreude. You are absolutely sure of that, yet were not brave enough to name them.
A few minutes later you implied I'm some wanna be dictator just because I said I think oppression is a far more likely response to riots than anarchy. By your style of writing I'm assuming you are intelligent enough to reach the low bar necessary to distinguish, in written word, an opinion from a desire, so I'm going to assume you just have an uncontrolable wish to see bad intentions on the posts of others so you can moralize about it.
Now you go on again, equating the fact that some people (rightly or wrongly) think long lockdowns will be necessary (an opinion) with some perverted fantasy.
I think the perverted fantasiser in here is you. You are desperate to find evil on others where no evidence of it exists.
You seem to have completely misunderstood my post if you inferred from what I said that the worst possible case scenario is likely to play out.
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Yes, I had heard about some of that. Which is why I’m not feeling massively confident about a highly effective and (crucially) safe vaccine being developed at any point. Never mind in 18 months time.
It’s obviously great to see so many novel approaches being tried out but, equally, the more novel the approach the higher the chance of failure. The antibody-dependant enhancement stuff is VERY scary. Where is your group based? Are you looking at intranasal administration for the vaccine?
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Awful
I'm not here to fight with anyone man. I do stand by my thoughts on Sweden, though. We'll see how that pans out and we'll see the tone of the responses should the worst happen, in that country. Not every single person claiming long lockdowns will be necessary are (in my opinion) fantasising about it. Some definitely are, it's easy to see when you read into the tone and overall vibe of the post in question. Anyway, I'm going to continue to err on the optimistic side and will continue to be frustrated by those constantly banging the worst case scenario drum.
On the 'dictator' thing yeah I think I misread or misunderstood your wording in that case. It wasn't intended in the way I interpreted it, I'll apologise for that.
If you look at the number of deaths on the 9th, the number being reported each day is trailing off now. I'm fairly optimistic that these numbers aren't going to take off toward the end of the week. Even for weekends, the vast majority of the reports tend to be in after 4-5 days.
There is no fate but what we make of ourselves.
it doesn't matter. there's just no need to even be discussing the end of humanity ffs. there are a lot of people who are already stressed and worried out about things, alarmist views like that (even if they are qualified by 'it's unlikely') just serve no use at all.
Keep getting funny looks when me and my flatmate sit downstairs in our pub.
Even had pictures taken without consent. Quite annoying.
Even had pictures taken without consent. Quite annoying.
The clamour for a relaxation in the lockdown will build as the death rate falls but the new infections rate will probably rise based on the increase in tests numbers. How should we decide when to loosen the lockdown?
Should we loosen the lockdown when the NHS feels it has increased its capacity to deal with more patients? They seem to be increasing the number of beds with the new Nightingale Hospitals opening up. I don't understand why they are still increasing capacity when its beginning to look like the death rate may be falling.
Should we loosen the lockdown when the NHS feels it has increased its capacity to deal with more patients? They seem to be increasing the number of beds with the new Nightingale Hospitals opening up. I don't understand why they are still increasing capacity when its beginning to look like the death rate may be falling.
Well there's no easy answer but lockdown essentially was to prevent the NHS from becoming overwhelmed. So that will have the final say, whenever the government feels they are adequately on top of the situation.
The government is in a corner here.
The Lockdown was implemented to stop the NHS being overwhelmed and to buy the health service valuable time to build some capacity. It's fair to say it's been a success on both counts.
However, they need a way out of it. The economic consequences are absolutely catastrophic, plus there is a plethora of other health and social issues that arise from lockdown. So the government need to get us out of this sooner rather than later. However, the public is pumped full of fear and it'll probably take a vaccine before the public start going about their lives as normal.
Either way it's imperative that the government come out with an exit plan as quickly as possible. If the government keep treating the exit plan as some sort of state secret. Many in the population may start losing confidence that the government know how to get out of it,.
So we're in trouble basically.
I don’t think anything in this thread serves any use. We’re all just shooting the breeze. I think we should be allowed to discuss worst case scenarios without the need for some sort of trigger warning.
i don't think this is the case. as soon as things are loosened (in a phased capacity I'm sure), people will take advantage.
New cases down in Italy again but I expect that number to increase in the next few days. Slightly more deaths but that number probably correlates to the cases a week or two ago.
There will be an end to this but I fear our Government are preparing for a long tail off in cases. They can gradually start releasing certain containment measures and potentially calibrate the number of cases by doing so.
I'm not so sure I'm being overly cynical here but they may be increasing the number of field hospitals and boosting NHS capacity to allow more cases in the coming weeks and months to allow them to open up the economy. Why else are they increasing capacity when it looks like the numbers are slowing down a bit?
Belgian lockdown extended until May 3. No major events like festivals allowed until August 31.
But maybe someone like @PogueMahone will correct me if I'm wrong, but there's almost no reason for them not to do that. We can't get back on top of this so the only approach we have is to keep numbers low so that when people inevitably get it there is hospital treatment available to them if they need it.
Increasing ICU capacity so you can keep the peak under that capacity with less stringent lockdown measures is the ideal, no?
It depends I think. As a fit and healthy 24 year old I'll be resuming my life as soon as the government allows me.
However, anyone who may think they are vulnerable for whatever reasons will have to take precautions.
Yes, this has to be the plan.
It will surely increase due to the Easter weekend but its very good news that cases continue to fall even though tests are up near their maximum capacity again (they had been lower the last couple of days).
Merkel's just given a press conference. All of the above has been confirmed. Additionally there will be no mass events until 31 Aug. Face masks will not be mandatory and schools will start opening on 4 May. All measures will be reviewed in two weeks.
Same in Germany.