SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

No I believe it's a more extreme version.

Anyway seriously what's your logic? Are you saying it's ok for more people to become ill as long as the economy gets opened back up?
I'm not saying it's OK, I just think this is what the government might be thinking. They have to balance the impact of the virus itself versus the economic (and therefore in the long term human) cost of the lockdown.
 
I’m in love with Andrew Cuomo.

Gets asked a tough question: “Good question, I don’t know”... throws to the doctor with zero ego invested.

That's such a rare thing, isn't it? Admitting you don't know something. A simple thing, but says a lot about the person who admits it. Sadly missing from some leaders and other influential figures whose egos are so fragile that wouldn't even entertain the idea of admitting they don't know something.
 
I’m in love with Andrew Cuomo.

Gets asked a tough question: “Good question, I don’t know”... throws to the doctor with zero ego invested.
He's been exemplary. I also admired in the earlier days when he took responsibility for closing of bars/restaurants, telling people to blame him and not local officials. When he was pleading for more respirators, and said that he would personally see to that they were transported to future hotspots once NY was better and others emerged. When he told the NY National Guard (remember that if not called by the federal govt, the National Guard answers to the state) that he would not ask them to go anywhere he wouldn't go himself, or do anything that he wouldn't do himself.

You could be cynical and say its empty words. He doesn't have to drive a truck of respirators himself, just arrange their transportation. He won't actually have to do what the Natl Guard will do, because he will continue to have other stuff to do as governor. But I think it reflects an understanding of the gravity of the situation and the responsibility that is inherent to public office, which as we know has been gravely lacking in the federal government.

His communication is also excellent when he is presenting. His chooses very clear language, gets his thinking across effectively even when the idea is slightly complex. The tone is also generally right. He doesn't make it seem like he's enjoying a single minute of this, but that he's also not going to be disheartened by the bad news.
 
Given we are 4 weeks post UK lockdown, is it fair to assume the vast majority of 16,509 deaths in UK hospitals (and those infected, tested or otherwise) where people infected pre lockdown? (when there a normal behaviour of civic society, albeit in colder month of March ie: no social distancing).

Is the post lockdown strategy broadly that IF society can be re-structured to properly implement physical distancing (until nation is fully vaccinated), UK NHS has enough capacity to deal with serious cases, which should never be as high as pre lockdown peak because of social distancing?

In such a society, the outcomes of contact tracing will become the key disrupter, as people will be quarantined at a moments notice, if they were in close contact with an infected person. And all employers will have to be able to manage such continual disruptions.

Is that how it's going to work and our next 'normal'?
 
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I’m in love with Andrew Cuomo.

Gets asked a tough question: “Good question, I don’t know”... throws to the doctor with zero ego invested.

That's such a rare thing, isn't it? Admitting you don't know something. A simple thing, but says a lot about the person who admits it. Sadly missing from some leaders and other influential figures whose egos are so fragile that wouldn't even entertain the idea of admitting they don't know something.

It’s a great quality in anyone. Not just leaders. Amazing how rare it is.
 


Highest number of deaths in Ireland so far, though the deaths themselves took place across the last month. Another reason comparing the amount of deaths in different countries is tricky, I suppose.
 
It’s a great quality in anyone. Not just leaders. Amazing how rare it is.

Oh agreed. I mention leaders due to the obvious influence they have and the possible dangers that come with it when they speak authoritatively on things they know little about.
 
Oh agreed. I mention leaders due to the obvious influence they have and the possible dangers that come with it when they speak authoritatively on things they know little about.

Yeah, true. Also they probably have a bigger incentive to give the impression they know more than they do. It’s a terrible personality flaw. Bluster.
 
‘Jesus is my vaccine’: Hundreds of protesters gather without protective gear in Pennsylvania

Demonstrators gathered in Pennsylvania on Monday to demand that that the stay-at-home order be lifted as the coronavirus pandemic peaks in the United States.

According to reports, hundreds of protesters showed up in Harrisburg. Many of the demonstrators failed to wear protective gear or follow the CDC’s social distancing guidelines.

“Jesus is my vaccine,” a message on one truck said. One man came to the rally bearing a wooden cross on his back.

Other signs claimed that COVID-19 is a government “false flag” operation.

“Signs are saying that Gov. Wolf is the virus, that the media are the virus. Everything is the virus, except the virus,” one observer noted.



Jesus seemingly not as effective as he used to be
 
Are Americans holding some kind of competition to see just how mental they can get? It's beyond any kind of understanding now, it's insane and just getting worse.
 
Fully opening up the economy just because the curve has been flattened would be a disaster. The virus won't just go away.

The virus won't go way until we get a vaccine or herd immunity.

We'll need to get serious in how we reopen the economy and then decide how we operate as a society, whilst people are still getting the virus and dying from said virus.
 
The Pope said we should do what the scientists are recommending. I'm guessing they're not Catholics!
I’ve no idea what they are, but if I was Christian I’d be devastated seeing this stuff sprayed all over social media.
 
The virus won't go way until we get a vaccine or herd immunity.

We'll need to get serious in how we reopen the economy and then decide how we operate as a society, whilst people are still getting the virus and dying from said virus.
We will be. Just because its not an approach that people who worship econonic strength over health agree with doesnt mean there isnt serious thought behind it.
 
@senorgregster The specificity of RT-PCR for SarsCov2 is higher than the sensitivity, right? I'm trying to look for it, but am not finding simple answers, my head is a bit fried anyway.
 
We will be. Just because its not an approach that people who worship econonic strength over health agree with doesnt mean there isnt serious thought behind it.

I wish it's that simple

if a 1 month lock down can guarantee 0 infection then it's an easy options. The problem is that we could be locking down for 1 months, collapsing the economy, and still collapsing the health care. It's not a simple choice of "health or money", it could be both.

I try to be balanced and looking from everybody's point of view. Sometimes the naysayers are saying it in a stupid way, but they do have a point, at some point you'd have to also take consideration the economic ramifications of lockdowns. Chaos anarchy riots once supply chain is out of food isn't an unlikely scenario. Money is one thing but the whole supply chain can't last 2-3 months without economy reopens. Even if the government gives us cheques, we still need physical goods to be available. having money with no supply would only make a hyperinflation that could spiral out of control.

Our next door convenient store needs goods produced by farmers, farmers needs to go out buy seeds, they need tools, they need gears, etc. You can't simply says only "X can remain open an Y close"
 
Was living in Switzerland for a year, got back to the UK in April (about 2 weeks ago). Situation is pretty calm, you can still go out (i.e. to the park) but you have to socially distance of course and be with less than 5 people. Supermarkets are full, they are limiting the number of people allowed in pharmacies. Borders are still open as far as I am aware since I was able to come back to the UK.



Interesting, thanks for the info.


Obviously not fully opened straightaway. But things like kids back to school, people back to work in offices. The increase in capacity now means that a higher curve can be coped with whilst a vaccine and treatments are developed.

I'm with you man. Our fellow European countries have already started loosening restrictions, our numbers are very slowly but surely showing signs that we've peaked and are on the downward slope and we have 2.5 weeks until this lockdown period 'ends'. By the time May 7th arrives, I stand by my prediction that Boris will come out and state "2 more weeks", giving a date of like, May 22-25th as when lockdown is released. That's 1 month away. That's a long time for numbers to keep sliding downhill.

It'll be cautious and incremental but it will begin. I reckon similar to Germany - small shops opening, non-essential workers can start earning again, small gatherings slowly begin to be tolerated.

Remember. They got a freeze on mortgages and rent for 3months. That 3month period ends in June. By June, people will be back in work because if they aren't, they're homeless.
 
I wish it's that simple

if a 1 month lock down can guarantee 0 infection then it's an easy options. The problem is that we could be locking down for 1 months, collapsing the economy, and still collapsing the health care. It's not a simple choice of "health or money", it could be both.

I try to be balanced and looking from everybody's point of view. Sometimes the naysayers are saying it in a stupid way, but they do have a point, at some point you'd have to also take consideration the economic ramifications of lockdowns. Chaos anarchy riots once supply chain is out of food isn't an unlikely scenario. Money is one thing but the whole supply chain can't last 2-3 months without economy reopens. Even if the government gives us cheques, we still need physical goods to be available. having money with no supply would only make a hyperinflation that could spiral out of control.

Our next door convenient store needs goods produced by farmers, farmers needs to go out buy seeds, they need tools, they need gears, etc. You can't simply says only "X can remain open an Y close"
Im a farmer and i can get every one of those?
A lot of businesses will open, i dont see any stories about any spike in supermarket workers getting infected but thats down to social distancing in those stores. More businesses that we think will reopen and safely as well but itll be a less profit simply because social distancing is so ingrained into us now.
Plus its not as if the government can just say forget about social distancing so business picks up.
Pubs etc have no chance. I heard on the radio today that if social distancing were followed in the guests pub it would be at 1/8 capacity. Theres just no way round that
 
UK:
  • A “best-case scenario” being worked on by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) hopes to end lockdown restrictions for certain nonessential shops and industries in the short term, from early to mid-May.
  • Some social distancing measures could then gradually be relaxed in the medium term, in June and July, eventually leading to the reopening of pubs and restaurants towards the end of summer.
  • Long-term “shielding” for elderly and vulnerable people could mean limits on people seeing their parents or grandparents over 70 for as long as 12 to 18 months until a vaccine is found.
  • The timeline relies on SAGE scientists calculating how many new COVID-19 infections per day the UK’s test and trace capabilities can manage and an “impossible” political decision for Downing Street on how many deaths per day they are willing to accept in order to be able to lift some restrictions before there is a vaccine.
(sources with direct knowledge of the plan )
 
What do you all think, for how long can China keep its borders closed to foreigners? Because as soon as they will reopen to masses I can't see how it won't spread there again given the densities of their cities.
 
That whole island would need disinfecting after that seedy bloke has been living there with his dodgy parties.

If you shone a blacklight over the island it would look like a plasterers' radio.

Some have mistaken it for an iceberg.
 
UK:
  • A “best-case scenario” being worked on by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) hopes to end lockdown restrictions for certain nonessential shops and industries in the short term, from early to mid-May.
  • Some social distancing measures could then gradually be relaxed in the medium term, in June and July, eventually leading to the reopening of pubs and restaurants towards the end of summer.
  • Long-term “shielding” for elderly and vulnerable people could mean limits on people seeing their parents or grandparents over 70 for as long as 12 to 18 months until a vaccine is found.
  • The timeline relies on SAGE scientists calculating how many new COVID-19 infections per day the UK’s test and trace capabilities can manage and an “impossible” political decision for Downing Street on how many deaths per day they are willing to accept in order to be able to lift some restrictions before there is a vaccine.
(sources with direct knowledge of the plan)

I really struggle to believe that this can be maintained. I mean, plenty will buy into it. But plenty won’t. I can only work from anecdotal experience, but as I’ve been exercising, or on the rare occasions I’ve gone into work, I have seen lots of elderly people going about their business to some extent. By contrast, very few children or older youths.

How you do convince a 70+year old that may or may not have battled serious illness that they should not and will not spend time with their children and grandchildren? I’d sympathise with those who would choose to return to some sort of normality in their lives.
 
Social distancing is all well and good but what happens when we return to normal and that too in the absence of a vaccine.

It'll be the whole story all over again. Even with a handful of cases around the world, it can increase in no time.

Clearly climate is having no impact, as I'm in India where the temp is 40 degrees celsius and we continue to see rises despite a nationwide lockdown.

What seems to be the likely end game here.
 
UK:
  • A “best-case scenario” being worked on by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) hopes to end lockdown restrictions for certain nonessential shops and industries in the short term, from early to mid-May.
  • Some social distancing measures could then gradually be relaxed in the medium term, in June and July, eventually leading to the reopening of pubs and restaurants towards the end of summer.
  • Long-term “shielding” for elderly and vulnerable people could mean limits on people seeing their parents or grandparents over 70 for as long as 12 to 18 months until a vaccine is found.
  • The timeline relies on SAGE scientists calculating how many new COVID-19 infections per day the UK’s test and trace capabilities can manage and an “impossible” political decision for Downing Street on how many deaths per day they are willing to accept in order to be able to lift some restrictions before there is a vaccine.
(sources with direct knowledge of the plan )

Buzzfeed - Revealed: The UK’s “Three Stage” Exit Strategy To Ease The Coronavirus Lockdown
 
Im a farmer and i can get every one of those?
A lot of businesses will open, i dont see any stories about any spike in supermarket workers getting infected but thats down to social distancing in those stores. More businesses that we think will reopen and safely as well but itll be a less profit simply because social distancing is so ingrained into us now.
If this is true then I just don't understand contagion. WHY are grocery store workers not being infected en masse? On those rare occasions that I risk my life going to the grocery store I always feel sorry for those who must brave this virus for a paycheck. Yet, most (I believe) don't get infected... Why? They don't have PPE.

I read several stories about people who've gone into a store with a mask, adhered to strict social distancing, never touched their face and still got sick. Why not the workers? Or do we just not read about them? I dunno. It's weird. Surely they have the second riskiest job after medical workers?
 
The virus won't go way until we get a vaccine or herd immunity.

We'll need to get serious in how we reopen the economy and then decide how we operate as a society, whilst people are still getting the virus and dying from said virus.

Do you just keep putting the same post through 4 or 5 different language translations before back to English and posting it here four or five times a day?
 
Do you just keep putting the same post through 4 or 5 different language translations before back to English and posting it here four or five times a day?
:lol:

I did that with your comment: "Translating and publishing the same article 4-5 times in different languages, then in English, then 4-5 times?"
 
11 of 100 blood donors in Stockholm have had it.
Prof Jan Albert in clinical microbiology at Karolinska reckons it’s over 20% as the antibody test doesn’t catch all cases by any stretch.
Karolinska did this test last week.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/11-procent-av-stockholmarna-har-antikroppar-mot-covid-19

Thoughts @Pogue Mahone & especially @massi83 who doubted my 7.5% optimism last week as “pregnant women are at higher risk”.

Thanks for posting this. I've been struggling with some of my more panic stricken colleagues about this kind of thing. There seems to be a very strong human response in a lot of people that rejects any optimistic results. It is completely baffling to me! They champion studies that predict doom and want to scoff at ones that might give a more mild opinion.
 
I told him this also already couple of days ago, but apparently because Swedish hospitals are so amazing, it wasn't possible.

This new test (see above) makes you sound like another know it all, know feck all.
Just because massi, the insufferable nitpicking pedant from redcafe “told me”, means naff all to me mate, I listen to experts.

Maybe take a step back and realise you don’t have all of the answers, if any. As I suggested, pregnant woman go into a completely different section of a hospital, nowhere near to where Covid-19 patients are doctors/nurses would be and weren’t/aren’t much more at risk, if at all.
 
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