I'm not saying it's OK, I just think this is what the government might be thinking. They have to balance the impact of the virus itself versus the economic (and therefore in the long term human) cost of the lockdown.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
That's such a rare thing, isn't it? Admitting you don't know something. A simple thing, but says a lot about the person who admits it. Sadly missing from some leaders and other influential figures whose egos are so fragile that wouldn't even entertain the idea of admitting they don't know something.
Richard Branson offers his island as collateral as Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Australia face collapse
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/20/business/virgin-australia-richard-branson/index.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/20/business/virgin-australia-richard-branson/index.html
He's been exemplary. I also admired in the earlier days when he took responsibility for closing of bars/restaurants, telling people to blame him and not local officials. When he was pleading for more respirators, and said that he would personally see to that they were transported to future hotspots once NY was better and others emerged. When he told the NY National Guard (remember that if not called by the federal govt, the National Guard answers to the state) that he would not ask them to go anywhere he wouldn't go himself, or do anything that he wouldn't do himself.
You could be cynical and say its empty words. He doesn't have to drive a truck of respirators himself, just arrange their transportation. He won't actually have to do what the Natl Guard will do, because he will continue to have other stuff to do as governor. But I think it reflects an understanding of the gravity of the situation and the responsibility that is inherent to public office, which as we know has been gravely lacking in the federal government.
His communication is also excellent when he is presenting. His chooses very clear language, gets his thinking across effectively even when the idea is slightly complex. The tone is also generally right. He doesn't make it seem like he's enjoying a single minute of this, but that he's also not going to be disheartened by the bad news.
Given we are 4 weeks post UK lockdown, is it fair to assume the vast majority of 16,509 deaths in UK hospitals (and those infected, tested or otherwise) where people infected pre lockdown? (when there a normal behaviour of civic society, albeit in colder month of March ie: no social distancing).
Is the post lockdown strategy broadly that IF society can be re-structured to properly implement physical distancing (until nation is fully vaccinated), UK NHS has enough capacity to deal with serious cases, which should never be as high as pre lockdown peak because of social distancing?
In such a society, the outcomes of contact tracing will become the key disrupter, as people will be quarantined at a moments notice, if they were in close contact with an infected person. And all employers will have to be able to manage such continual disruptions.
Is that how it's going to work and our next 'normal'?
Is the post lockdown strategy broadly that IF society can be re-structured to properly implement physical distancing (until nation is fully vaccinated), UK NHS has enough capacity to deal with serious cases, which should never be as high as pre lockdown peak because of social distancing?
In such a society, the outcomes of contact tracing will become the key disrupter, as people will be quarantined at a moments notice, if they were in close contact with an infected person. And all employers will have to be able to manage such continual disruptions.
Is that how it's going to work and our next 'normal'?
Last edited:
It’s a great quality in anyone. Not just leaders. Amazing how rare it is.
Highest number of deaths in Ireland so far, though the deaths themselves took place across the last month. Another reason comparing the amount of deaths in different countries is tricky, I suppose.
Oh agreed. I mention leaders due to the obvious influence they have and the possible dangers that come with it when they speak authoritatively on things they know little about.
Yeah, true. Also they probably have a bigger incentive to give the impression they know more than they do. It’s a terrible personality flaw. Bluster.
And that is a fecking great thing. Let’s keep it that way, not aim to fill them up just because they are there eh?
no words
Jesus seemingly not as effective as he used to be
The Pope said we should do what the scientists are recommending. I'm guessing they're not Catholics!
Are Americans holding some kind of competition to see just how mental they can get? It's beyond any kind of understanding now, it's insane and just getting worse.
The virus won't go way until we get a vaccine or herd immunity.
We'll need to get serious in how we reopen the economy and then decide how we operate as a society, whilst people are still getting the virus and dying from said virus.
I’ve no idea what they are, but if I was Christian I’d be devastated seeing this stuff sprayed all over social media.
April crude oil contract traded at bellow 0
That means you got paid to receive oil. Crazy times
That means you got paid to receive oil. Crazy times
They're fundamentalists no doubt, maybe Southern Baptists. Whatever they are, they're wrong.
We will be. Just because its not an approach that people who worship econonic strength over health agree with doesnt mean there isnt serious thought behind it.
Still believe in divine protection, but going out during these times is close to suicide. Jesus can't help you if you decided to do something stupid.
@senorgregster The specificity of RT-PCR for SarsCov2 is higher than the sensitivity, right? I'm trying to look for it, but am not finding simple answers, my head is a bit fried anyway.
I wish it's that simple
if a 1 month lock down can guarantee 0 infection then it's an easy options. The problem is that we could be locking down for 1 months, collapsing the economy, and still collapsing the health care. It's not a simple choice of "health or money", it could be both.
I try to be balanced and looking from everybody's point of view. Sometimes the naysayers are saying it in a stupid way, but they do have a point, at some point you'd have to also take consideration the economic ramifications of lockdowns. Chaos anarchy riots once supply chain is out of food isn't an unlikely scenario. Money is one thing but the whole supply chain can't last 2-3 months without economy reopens. Even if the government gives us cheques, we still need physical goods to be available. having money with no supply would only make a hyperinflation that could spiral out of control.
Our next door convenient store needs goods produced by farmers, farmers needs to go out buy seeds, they need tools, they need gears, etc. You can't simply says only "X can remain open an Y close"
Interesting, thanks for the info.
I'm with you man. Our fellow European countries have already started loosening restrictions, our numbers are very slowly but surely showing signs that we've peaked and are on the downward slope and we have 2.5 weeks until this lockdown period 'ends'. By the time May 7th arrives, I stand by my prediction that Boris will come out and state "2 more weeks", giving a date of like, May 22-25th as when lockdown is released. That's 1 month away. That's a long time for numbers to keep sliding downhill.
It'll be cautious and incremental but it will begin. I reckon similar to Germany - small shops opening, non-essential workers can start earning again, small gatherings slowly begin to be tolerated.
Remember. They got a freeze on mortgages and rent for 3months. That 3month period ends in June. By June, people will be back in work because if they aren't, they're homeless.
Im a farmer and i can get every one of those?
A lot of businesses will open, i dont see any stories about any spike in supermarket workers getting infected but thats down to social distancing in those stores. More businesses that we think will reopen and safely as well but itll be a less profit simply because social distancing is so ingrained into us now.
Plus its not as if the government can just say forget about social distancing so business picks up.
Pubs etc have no chance. I heard on the radio today that if social distancing were followed in the guests pub it would be at 1/8 capacity. Theres just no way round that
UK:
- A “best-case scenario” being worked on by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) hopes to end lockdown restrictions for certain nonessential shops and industries in the short term, from early to mid-May.
- Some social distancing measures could then gradually be relaxed in the medium term, in June and July, eventually leading to the reopening of pubs and restaurants towards the end of summer.
- Long-term “shielding” for elderly and vulnerable people could mean limits on people seeing their parents or grandparents over 70 for as long as 12 to 18 months until a vaccine is found.
- The timeline relies on SAGE scientists calculating how many new COVID-19 infections per day the UK’s test and trace capabilities can manage and an “impossible” political decision for Downing Street on how many deaths per day they are willing to accept in order to be able to lift some restrictions before there is a vaccine.
What do you all think, for how long can China keep its borders closed to foreigners? Because as soon as they will reopen to masses I can't see how it won't spread there again given the densities of their cities.
That whole island would need disinfecting after that seedy bloke has been living there with his dodgy parties.
If you shone a blacklight over the island it would look like a plasterers' radio.
Some have mistaken it for an iceberg.
I really struggle to believe that this can be maintained. I mean, plenty will buy into it. But plenty won’t. I can only work from anecdotal experience, but as I’ve been exercising, or on the rare occasions I’ve gone into work, I have seen lots of elderly people going about their business to some extent. By contrast, very few children or older youths.
How you do convince a 70+year old that may or may not have battled serious illness that they should not and will not spend time with their children and grandchildren? I’d sympathise with those who would choose to return to some sort of normality in their lives.
Social distancing is all well and good but what happens when we return to normal and that too in the absence of a vaccine.
It'll be the whole story all over again. Even with a handful of cases around the world, it can increase in no time.
Clearly climate is having no impact, as I'm in India where the temp is 40 degrees celsius and we continue to see rises despite a nationwide lockdown.
What seems to be the likely end game here.
It'll be the whole story all over again. Even with a handful of cases around the world, it can increase in no time.
Clearly climate is having no impact, as I'm in India where the temp is 40 degrees celsius and we continue to see rises despite a nationwide lockdown.
What seems to be the likely end game here.
If this is true then I just don't understand contagion. WHY are grocery store workers not being infected en masse? On those rare occasions that I risk my life going to the grocery store I always feel sorry for those who must brave this virus for a paycheck. Yet, most (I believe) don't get infected... Why? They don't have PPE.
I read several stories about people who've gone into a store with a mask, adhered to strict social distancing, never touched their face and still got sick. Why not the workers? Or do we just not read about them? I dunno. It's weird. Surely they have the second riskiest job after medical workers?
Do you just keep putting the same post through 4 or 5 different language translations before back to English and posting it here four or five times a day?
I did that with your comment: "Translating and publishing the same article 4-5 times in different languages, then in English, then 4-5 times?"
11 of 100 blood donors in Stockholm have had it.
Prof Jan Albert in clinical microbiology at Karolinska reckons it’s over 20% as the antibody test doesn’t catch all cases by any stretch.
Karolinska did this test last week.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/11-procent-av-stockholmarna-har-antikroppar-mot-covid-19
Thoughts @Pogue Mahone & especially @massi83 who doubted my 7.5% optimism last week as “pregnant women are at higher risk”.
Prof Jan Albert in clinical microbiology at Karolinska reckons it’s over 20% as the antibody test doesn’t catch all cases by any stretch.
Karolinska did this test last week.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/11-procent-av-stockholmarna-har-antikroppar-mot-covid-19
Thoughts @Pogue Mahone & especially @massi83 who doubted my 7.5% optimism last week as “pregnant women are at higher risk”.
Thanks for posting this. I've been struggling with some of my more panic stricken colleagues about this kind of thing. There seems to be a very strong human response in a lot of people that rejects any optimistic results. It is completely baffling to me! They champion studies that predict doom and want to scoff at ones that might give a more mild opinion.
This new test (see above) makes you sound like another know it all, know feck all.
Just because massi, the insufferable nitpicking pedant from redcafe “told me”, means naff all to me mate, I listen to experts.
Maybe take a step back and realise you don’t have all of the answers, if any. As I suggested, pregnant woman go into a completely different section of a hospital, nowhere near to where Covid-19 patients are doctors/nurses would be and weren’t/aren’t much more at risk, if at all.
Last edited: