SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I dont know why people keep comparing the situation in Belgium with, lets say Sweden. We are one of the densest populated countries in the world, an international hub of transport, we hold tons of big organisations that require travel, massive amounts of Belgians travel abroad each year and a ton of people work across the border. Do we have a high death toll? Yes. About 60% of all deaths occur in nursing homes and are suspected Covid victims. Would other countries have a much higher death toll if they counted the same way? Absolutely. Would we have a massive amount of extra deaths if the lockdown wouldn't have happened? Without a doubt. The Belgian people are happy with the lockdown and are looking forward to the restrictions being lifted.

I live in a small town of about 5000 people. 30 people have died in 1 nursing home because of Covid, as one nurse who came back from Austria was infected. Thank feck for the lockdown or it could have happened across the entire country.
 
Virgil said:
Utter bollocks. So the millions of British nationals returning from their european Feburary holiday including god knows how many school trips should have been refused entry because of Brexit. What is your excuse then for Italy, Spain and France amongst others?
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Youve totally misunderstood what he was saying
 
Silva said:
the issue is more taking zero precautions when people come and go, see samsky earlier in this thread thinking it's fine for him to go about his life after international travel because there was nothing telling him otherwise

the supply chain is one thing, people travelling then immediately mingling with others is hella bad - the school trips kids and their families should have been in 2 weeks isolations soon as the kids got in for example
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Agree with last couple of sentences. Said something similar myself yesterday. Not doing that was most obvious single issue balls up by many countries. School trips from Northern Italy mingling with everyone else at school the very next day. Madness.
 
Isn't it a problem having Johnson - whose entire public image is about positivity and optimism (read: mindless cheer-leading & jingoism) - in charge of a decision about ending the lockdown?
 
Dancfc said:
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Yep. The scare-mongering is in force again. Germany have not even suggested remotely that they are so worried about that miniscule fluctuation (that was overblown in the headlines), they've just advised people to continue to be mindful and use social distancing, nothing else. But people can't wait to jump on these negative headlines as proof that lockdown is 'failing' in Germany.

Anyone with a brain know that the infection rate is going to bobble up and down, to some degree.

Bad news sells, basically. Nobody is clickign on a headline that says "Nothing has changed in Germany". That doesn't make for sensational news.
 
onemanarmy said:
I dont know why people keep comparing the situation in Belgium with, lets say Sweden. We are one of the densest populated countries in the world, an international hub of transport, we hold tons of big organisations that require travel, massive amounts of Belgians travel abroad each year and a ton of people work across the border. Do we have a high death toll? Yes. About 60% of all deaths occur in nursing homes and are suspected Covid victims. Would other countries have a much higher death toll if they counted the same way? Absolutely. Would we have a massive amount of extra deaths if the lockdown wouldn't have happened? Without a doubt. The Belgian people are happy with the lockdown and are looking forward to the restrictions being lifted.

I live in a small town of about 5000 people. 30 people have died in 1 nursing home because of Covid, as one nurse who came back from Austria was infected. Thank feck for the lockdown or it could have happened across the entire country.
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I really wonder how many lives would have been spared if the Austrian afterski bars had taken precautions and been open with their customers. It seeems like all neighboring countries and scandinavia imported thousands upon thousands of cases from Austria. approx 600 came back positive to Norway from there. I remember a norwegian employee at a bar there was warned by her boss when she tried discussing the infection dangers, and when she warned others on Facebook the owner wrote please stop this is damaging to our business. People were crammed in those places and people working were sick already and still worked.
 
Hansa said:
When Norway introduced the restrictions, Stockholm had just over 300 confirmed cases in their 2,3 million population. Oslo had 166 confirmed cases in their 700k population.
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You realise surely that ”confirmed cases” means absolutely zitch here right?

or just explain to me why Malmö county is doing better than Oslo? Can you give me any explanation for that?

Tiresome indeed. You’re completely fecking ignoring that Stockholm had week 9 half term, Malmö, Oslo, GBG week 7-8... how can you ignore just what a massive difference that is in the alps during that period? Anyone who understands anything about exponential growth understands how important that variable is.

My entire point isn’t to say that Sweden is doing as well or better than Norway or Belgium or any other country, for the record I think Norway has done a tremendous job thus far, but I also think the Belgian response was exemplary.
My point is that none of us know the most important variable, and confirmed cases tell us absolutely nothing with this virus, as it barely effects the majority of people. Comparing countries and their strategies/responses at this stage is still utterly ridiculous and utterly unscientific, wait a few more months, then we’ll know much better.
 
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Alabaster Codify7 said:
Yep. The scare-mongering is in force again. Germany have not even suggested remotely that they are so worried about that miniscule fluctuation (that was overblown in the headlines), they've just advised people to continue to be mindful and use social distancing, nothing else. But people can't wait to jump on these negative headlines as proof that lockdown is 'failing' in Germany.

Anyone with a brain know that the infection rate is going to bobble up and down, to some degree.

Bad news sells, basically. Nobody is clickign on a headline that says "Nothing has changed in Germany". That doesn't make for sensational news.
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I remember the posts on here regarding it, it's almost as if they were getting off on breaking the news to us.
 
onemanarmy said:
I dont know why people keep comparing the situation in Belgium with, lets say Sweden. We are one of the densest populated countries in the world, an international hub of transport, we hold tons of big organisations that require travel, massive amounts of Belgians travel abroad each year and a ton of people work across the border. Do we have a high death toll? Yes. About 60% of all deaths occur in nursing homes and are suspected Covid victims. Would other countries have a much higher death toll if they counted the same way? Absolutely. Would we have a massive amount of extra deaths if the lockdown wouldn't have happened? Without a doubt. The Belgian people are happy with the lockdown and are looking forward to the restrictions being lifted.

I live in a small town of about 5000 people. 30 people have died in 1 nursing home because of Covid, as one nurse who came back from Austria was infected. Thank feck for the lockdown or it could have happened across the entire country.
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It’s still a massive outlier in lockdown theory, the earliest lockdown in Europe IIRC but even when all is said and done may be one of the worst very affected countries in Europe per capita. The excess death figures that the FT came up with suggest that could be the case.

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

Sweden is the other obvious outlier but Singapore should be considered too because they didn't close schools either, which I think will be the biggest single social harm from lockdown.
 
arnie_ni said:
Youve totally misunderstood what he was saying
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No I was not. Linking the U.K. response to Brexit was bollocks. And yes please overlook as he did the sheer impracticality of any country tracking and tracing millions of citizens returning from holiday or enforcing self isolation on them.
 
Virgil said:
No I was not. Linking the U.K. response to Brexit was bollocks. And yes please overlook as he did the sheer impracticality of any country tracking and tracing millions of citizens returning from holiday or enforcing self isolation on them.
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Didn't South Korea give a blueprint for how to do exactly that?
 
golden_blunder said:
Close airports, land borders and sea borders to everyone else apart from essential supply chains. There was no need for Heathrow just letting thousands in every day (can’t be all people returning from short holidays!), for weeks, without ANY checks. Taking control of borders? Literally no control!
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The other thing is the US travel ban >

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51883728 (happened first)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51891662 (then 2 days later)

Effectively, for 48 hours, UK airports became a breeding ground for Covid. Anyone travelling from anywhere else in Europe wanting to get to the US had to do so via a UK airport. I was gobsmacked at the time that somebody didn't step in and stop this from happening. It's little wonder that London cases took off like they did with workers from these airports then traveling on packed public transport in the following weeks.
 
Virgil said:
No I was not. Linking the U.K. response to Brexit was bollocks. And yes please overlook as he did the sheer impracticality of any country tracking and tracing millions of citizens returning from holiday or enforcing self isolation on them.
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Other countries did it
 
Dancfc said:
I remember the posts on here regarding it, it's almost as if they were getting off on breaking the news to us.
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Spoiler for you mate.....

They were.

There's a portion of the UK that want us to remain in lockdown for rational concern and educated doubts. There's a few extremely knowledgeable and balanced guys posting on here that fall under that category.

However, in the UK we've also got Some paranoid basket cases and some are likely to be loners who finally feel 'normal' for the first time in their lives.

Both parties are dreading lockdown ending and are hoping it is prolonged over and over again.
 
Virgil said:
No I was not. Linking the U.K. response to Brexit was bollocks. And yes please overlook as he did the sheer impracticality of any country tracking and tracing millions of citizens returning from holiday or enforcing self isolation on them.
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You’ve entirely missed the point because you jump on the phrase brexit.

Point - campaigned on controlling borders - first opportunity to really control borders and they didn’t. They let thousands flow through the airports every day even as the numbers were going crazy in Italy and Spain
 
antsmithmk said:
The other thing is the US travel ban >

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51883728 (happened first)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51891662 (then 2 days later)

Effectively, for 48 hours, UK airports became a breeding ground for Covid. Anyone travelling from anywhere else in Europe wanting to get to the US had to do so via a UK airport. I was gobsmacked at the time that somebody didn't step in and stop this from happening. It's little wonder that London cases took off like they did with workers from these airports then traveling on packed public transport in the following weeks.
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I remember looking at the TV in disbelief when Trump announced that he was stopping travel from all of Europe, except the UK... as if somehow the UK were immune to this pandemic or something because they speak English or something (I'm spitballing for a reason for doing this here)
 
overlook as he did the sheer impracticality of any country tracking and tracing millions of citizens returning from holiday or enforcing self isolation on them.
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That’s alright then let’s not do it because it’s too hard
 
antsmithmk said:
The other thing is the US travel ban >

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51883728 (happened first)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51891662 (then 2 days later)

Effectively, for 48 hours, UK airports became a breeding ground for Covid. Anyone travelling from anywhere else in Europe wanting to get to the US had to do so via a UK airport. I was gobsmacked at the time that somebody didn't step in and stop this from happening. It's little wonder that London cases took off like they did with workers from these airports then traveling on packed public transport in the following weeks.
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Interesting. It’s estimated that between 3 and 5 million Londoners use TFL too. The other issue to is how central London is to everything England. People commute there for work from all corners of the country.
 
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antsmithmk said:
The other thing is the US travel ban >

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51883728 (happened first)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51891662 (then 2 days later)

Effectively, for 48 hours, UK airports became a breeding ground for Covid. Anyone travelling from anywhere else in Europe wanting to get to the US had to do so via a UK airport. I was gobsmacked at the time that somebody didn't step in and stop this from happening. It's little wonder that London cases took off like they did with workers from these airports then traveling on packed public transport in the following weeks.
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Exactly, it was lunacy then and with hindsight it’s still lunacy
 
The problem with easing the lockdown is that people in this country are far too thick and far too arrogant to actually follow the rules of social distancing. The Government's lack of clarity at the time didn't help, but to be frank, I don't think it would have made a blind bit of difference in any case.

In the event of an easing of the lockdown, we'll likely see the crowds come out again and people thinking it's a case of being back to normal, and the rate of infections will shoot up. The people in Germany are seemingly following the social distancing rules, but it hasn't stopped the R0 to rise, even if it was a little. What hope have we here, where people had to be forced to not go out even though days earlier the government was pleading with everyone to stay in?

Tbh, even this situation isn't a full-scale lockdown, and we have people going on like their martyrs. Get a fecking grip, ffs. Do what is needed to be done, and we'll come out of this. There will likely need to be an easing up, but it won't be a case of us being back to normal until a vaccine comes up. A lot of these restrictions will be in place for the foreseeable.
 
golden_blunder said:
You’ve entirely missed the point because you jump on the phrase brexit.

Point - campaigned on controlling borders - first opportunity to really control borders and they didn’t. They let thousands flow through the airports every day even as the numbers were going crazy in Italy and Spain
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Honestly, these recent posts have been some of the most cringeworthy in the 800 pages so far. Can you just think of some of the implications of what you are suggesting and generate sustainable solutions for the inevitable wide-scale problems you would create? Even the Conservatives are at least far more aware of how interconnected the modern world is – and with great benefits for the vast majority.

Golden Blunder could well be a nickname for Trump and that’s exactly who you are channelling here.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Plenty of anarchists also Al, especially in here, they would love nothing more than to see the fall of the capitalist society and watch the World burn as we lockdown and bunker in for a couple of years.
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Yeah Id put them in with the loners. Just unhappy people who see this as a golden opportunity for everybody else to be as unhappy as they are. See the world burn.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Interesting. It’s estimated that between 3 and 5 million Londoners use TFL too. The other issue to is how central London is to everything England. People commute there for work from all corners of the country.
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And from other countries! Dublin airport full of London commuters every Monday/Friday.
 
TMDaines said:
Honestly, these recent posts have been some of the most cringeworthy in the 800 pages so far. Can you just think of some of the implications of what you are suggesting and generate sustainable solutions for the inevitable wide-scale problems you would create? Even the Conservatives are at least far more aware of how interconnected the modern world is – and with great benefits for the vast majority.

Golden Blunder could well be a nickname for Trump and that’s exactly who you are channelling here.
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Wtf?
Read again what I wrote
 
Are people really saying the UK shouldn't have closed its border to those that werent uk residents or essential travel, then once those came into the UK, forced the relevant stay at home/hotel quarantine like other countries have done?

Thats all golden blunder said.

We even had a caf poster come from asia and go out and about shopping the day after
 
711 said:
Who are 'they'? If you disagree with other posters then address them directly and give them the chance to respond.
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Was thinking this myself, tag them and give them a chance to defend themselves
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
You realise surely that ”confirmed cases” means absolutely zitch here right?

or just explain to me why Malmö county is doing better than Oslo? Can you give me any explanation for that?

Tiresome indeed. You’re completely fecking ignoring that Stockholm had week 9 half term, Malmö, Oslo, GBG week 7-8... how can you ignore just what a massive difference that is in the alps during that period? Anyone who understands anything about exponential growth understands how important that variable is.
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Oh, come on. I've already explained that the bulk of cases was brought into the country under the radar from Austria in early March. I don't know how much clearer I can be, and I don't understand this need to ignore the facts I've given you. It was not primarily brought into the country by families on holiday in week 8, but by those travelling in March, partying alongside Swedes, Danes, Icelanders, etc in Ischgl and St.Anton. Nationally, 696 confirmed cases from Austria, 172 from Italy + all the undiagnosed cases. Just like in Stockholm, the exact number for Oslo was unknown, which is why they pulled the brake when the infection was out of control, later estimated to have had an R0 of 3.47 at the time.

And this Oslo vs Malmö comparison is just very odd. My point is that Oslo and Stockholm were in a similar spot on March 12th. The death toll for both cities lends some credence to this thesis. It took about 12-14 days for Stockholm to start significantly racing ahead of Oslo in deaths per capita, which wouldn't have happened to such a degree if Oslo had taken Stockholm's approach.
 
@Ekkie Thump

I'm sure your reliable figures are coming but it appears that today's hospital deaths figure for the UK as a whole is

427

That's at least 200-250 lower than last Friday. Excellent trend, this. Very encouraging.
 
Going to be surreal in next few weeks when we see death figure under 200. That's how bad it's been over last three weeks. That day can't come soon enough.

It's always easy to forget aswell that for England we're not talking about just one hospital where people are passing away, it could be 10-20 in London, similar in Midlands, none in Bristol and Newcastle (two cities that don't seem to have been hit much at all), 10 in Manchester etc.

I assume with the trend we wil hopefully see a very low figure compared to April on Sunday.
 
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