Yep, give it a week or two and we're going to be seeing numbers below 200 which will be surreal but awesome. Tomorrow will climb I reckon, Saturday seems to every week. But I'm expecting low,low numbers on Sun and Mon (in context of course). Care home figures to be reported around 5pm and added on.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Yep, give it a week or two and we're going to be seeing numbers below 200 which will be surreal but awesome. Tomorrow will climb I reckon, Saturday seems to every week. But I'm expecting low,low numbers on Sun and Mon (in context of course). Care home figures to be reported around 5pm and added on.
Cheers for this.
Face masks inevitably going to form part of the easing of lockdowns, I assume the Government has finally got a decent supply now?
I am worried for countries exiting lockdowns and should I risk being called a doom monger in here I anticipate numbers to spike sharply once they do.
Think of it like kids with candy. First they are allowed it, then told it is temporarily forbidden. Not only is there a problem with some kids being prone to liking to do stuff that is forbidden so they don't actually fully benefit from being off the candy in the first place as they go and eat some rebelling against authority but then once you actually tell them they can eat candy again with permission they are likely to overload to an extreme until they are forced to stop through tummy ache.
There is nothing wrong with some positivity however I think you are overly positive, like close to dangerously positive.
Okay, you're entitled to that opinion. To each their own.
I've never owned one, but does/doesn't the wearing of masks make understanding speech difficult?
Anything without proper vaccine is a risk to be fair to governments, the problem is they can't extend lock downs indefinitely without risking social unrest and long term damage to economy.
I know some will say feck economics lives matters, true. But a long term lock down could be very bad and leads to equally damaging outcomes. I really don't want to be in their position of having to make that choices
I'd wear one on public transport and in most parts of the country not speaking to others is pretty mandatory on them.
I've tried one for a few minutes and it made my glasses steam up. If they become expected I'll have to sneakily modify them in some way.
The trend is encouraging yes but the numbers are still absolutely shocking, especially when you consider the actual number is probably 200-300 higher when care homes are added.
Thank you, Lord Pexy.
He is on up to start of June. Given lockdown in some form will very likely be extended up to them I imagine numbers will continue to reduce like they have been for last 7 days to more acceptable death levels if there can really be such a thing.
Of course what happens when we get to June 1st is more danger, the 12 week self isolation will be almost up for over 70s let's not forget so not sure what the government will say to them other than proceed at their own risk if they start venturing out again on a daily basis.
I'd wear one on public transport and in most parts of the country not speaking to others is pretty mandatory on them.
I'd found it impossible to get hold of them until recently, I'd been wearing a bandana over my lower face to do the shopping for my folks. Managed to get some recently but I don't think they're good quality to be honest.....they're very uncomfortable too. A 40min food shop was bearable but 1hr on a warm train (my commute) would be too much. I would probably have to default to the bandana to be honest for public transport unless we had air con which we sometimes do.
It's the period of adjustment while transitioning out of the lockdowns and the actions of people during them that would worry me especially in countries like the UK and USA it terrifies me to be honest.
At least now say In Sweden the population have been taught (again using candy analogy) to eat in moderation and that it will have to stay that way for the foreseeable. I have faith in some nations like Germany, Austria, Norway, Denmark and the likes of their people easing out of restrictions to a manageable level.
I worry for others that it's going to be lockdown, release, spike, lockdown, release, spike, lockdown on repeat with the buy-in and effects of every lockdown being diluted more every time.
I've just done my weekly shop and passed two people talking about "how Germany's R has rocketed back above 1".
I just had to laugh at that point
There's not a chance of that in the UK. The whole point of the lock down is to flatten the curve to allow essential services to cope and not to exceed capacity. It largely means the same number of people are likely to be infected but over a longer period. This can only be about buying time until a vaccine or treatments are developed, or failing that (this not being guaranteed) keeping the spread controlled until herd immunity is achieved. The government don't want to admit it but there you go.
The country can't afford people to be in lockdown for months and years on end. A recession takes years off life expectancy and a failed economy could kill more than the virus.
Its a very uncomfortable truth but the virus largely kills elderly people who cannot contribute to the economy and who often (due to underlying health conditions) do not have a long time to live. That is tragic, as is every life lost but there is a balance we need to keep. A long term lock down to save those people, whilst risking the ability for the people working now who fund the economy (and often care for those vulnerable groups), and ruining the future of the very young who are the people who will fund the country when the current crop retire is unthinkable.
Antibody testing is ongoing and if that indicates that there is an "iceberg" of people who have already had the virus (and the studies so far indicate that) and if, as suggested the actual risk of death overall is less than 0.1% (or less again for younger people) the economic damage will at some stage outweigh the damage the virus causes. People run the risk of death everyday from all kinds of threats, yet we do not lockdown because of it. How many die of Malaria, or Flu across the world every year? How may die in car accidents?
I think social distancing will remain in some form for a while but even that will have a shelf life. Some people you read online seem to think the world will be forever changed and I think some things (i.e. the way we work and the use of technology to minimise unnecessary travel) will, but socialising won't. Its innately human for people to want to socialise and that's why places we can do that exist. Things may change over time (i.e. local pubs closing and being replaced by a Nando's or similar as a place where young people meet) but the principle remains the same. People will not put up with months and months of having to work but then not "let off steam" as they usually would by meeting friends at the end of the week, or going to a cinema, concert or sports event. People are already getting sick of this so what'll happen in three months? Compliance cannot possibly be policed and eventually, the tide will turn against the Government because people will want a return to normality. As an example a 70+ year old friend of my parents, having been self-isolating for weeks has said that he'd rather take his chances and enjoy what years he has left than be locked up every day because he isn't living a life. If that was me I'd feel the same given that at some point in the next few years some disease or ailment is going to do for me anyway.
As an aside, the media have a lot to answer for. They've seemingly convinced a generation of young, healthy people that they're going to die of they go to Tesco to pick up some shopping. Evidently this is very serious but accurate reporting around risk should be made clear, rather than prioritising getting clicks online with sensational articles filled with doom and gloom about how we'll never return to normal. Printing daily deaths is, I suppose required but the human brain is not wired up to deal with that much death, even though around 1600 people a day die on average in the UK.
Goes to show how quickly and easily fake news can become fact. Some MP has said similar today or yesterday,no fecker has corrected him.
Anyway, it's not true and we're going into the weekend on a much better footing than the last. That's all I'm bothered about right now.
Think this is virtually inevitable in places like France, Spain and the UK, unfortunately. So many undiagnosed cases out there now, probably hundreds of thousands in each country. It's not like NZ where they more or less know exactly where the virus is in its entirety.
June will be known as the month of spikes.
Updated graph of hospital deaths in England by day of death. 391 deaths reported today, 54 fewer than yesterday and 123 fewer than this time last week. Represents quite the consistent drop.
Orange is a 5 day trailing average. Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:
Data source for @Brownie85: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Updated graph of hospital deaths in England by day of death. 351 reported deaths today, 40 fewer than yesterday and down 236 from this time last week. Encouraging news.
Orange is a 5 day trailing average. Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:
Could not agree more with every single word you have just written.
Anyway, it's 3.30pm and we're going into the weekend on a much better footing than last week.....which was better than the week before.
Hope everyone stays safe and has as good a weekend as can possibly be had in this current climate.
Updated graph of hospital deaths in England by day of death. 351 reported deaths today, 40 fewer than yesterday and down 236 from this time last week. Encouraging news.
Orange is a 5 day trailing average. Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:
Indeed it is, thanks for the daily graphs!
Called it last week but they've now changed the definition of the testing figure in the last few days to include those posted out rather than those processed.
It once again demonstrates where the governments focus is.
It once again demonstrates where the governments focus is.
That's like 5hrs of fox news jammed into one post. Congratulations.
I'm not trawling through each point so I'll stick to your final one. No they haven't convinced people that they're going to die they've convinced them (as has the government) to do their civic duty and stay home to protect others, it takes a sociopath not to get why people are doing this.
If you can get one with the metal strip that goes over your nose you can pinch that tight, and it helps with the glasses problem. We have to wear them while driving here for some weird reason, and it's difficult. You have to sneakily free your nose.
I for one am not saying that. My hackles were raised when Golden Blunder was linking the UKs stance to implying that because of Brexit we could/should have closed our borders....as if the U.K. was out of step with the rest of the world (with the exception of USA).
All I would say is be consistent. For example go look up when individual EU countries imposed border controls on one another and banned internal flights or ferries. Then again, closer to home for golden blunder I suppose Ireland and the U.K. should have banned other than essential travel between one another. Not quite sure that they have even today but I do know that travel between the two nations was still possible by both air and sea up to mid April.
Yes to allow foreign travellers to get around the USA travel lockdown by using Heathrow was plainly daft as was allowing fans to attend the Liverpool match or allowing Cheltenham to go ahead. However both of those events resulted in a significant number of Irish tourists so the Irish government allowing them to come cannot be absolved of blame Unless of course they were all quarantined and tracked and traced whe they returned home. And that’s without adding in events such as the Manchester Irish Festival.
Without doubt the U.K. has made mistakes but at this stage it is far too early to say whether we are any worse than most other nations. Maybe in a year or so it will become possible to judge. Certainly given our population size and density we do not seem to be doing worse than most....Germany excepted. As for when comparisons are made with countries such as South Korea or China my eyes raise to the sky for what western nation is handling the crisis as well as they are. Then again I simply trust and hope that those in power in every nation is doing their best to safeguard their populations Both now and in the future without losing sight of the need to get economies back on track as soon as is possible. Too many poor and disadvantaged will be crippled for years to come unless there is some relaxation of isolation measures soon.
I reckon that most posters on this forum are quite able to cope with the lockdowns in our respective countries without feeling the power of poverty but respectfully I would suggest we are probably far from being representative of our populations at large.
I think you've got to remember what "normal" life was like in February. Over 500k every weekend going to watch football matches. Not just at the stadium but in pubs, public transport etc before and after games. You also had six nations on then which had mass attendances and also european travel.
Going out on the lash on Friday-Sat night was still a thing. Even in March I had a couple of friends go to a rave in a packed warehouse in Coalville. None of that will be happening in June, July or August.
In June I was going to Download festival which usually attracts 100k every year. Think Glasto has higher amount and amazing to actually read a list of all the actual festivals that take place every summer in the UK now, probably over a 100. All but a handful cancelled.
That's a staggering amount of mass social contact to take out of the equation for next 3-4 months and probably the rest of the year.
What you can't quite cancel forever is normal life though.
The problem however will be winter when flu season starts and people start dying just of the flu and I fear panic will set in again. Government is just buying time and hoping for an effective treatment to be developed here or abroad before a vaccine becomes serious possibility.
I think (hope) that over the course of this next month we're going to get some positive outcomes from treatment trials. We've already had the Remdesivir trial which shows positives regarding treatment times and was on the cusp of achieving a statistically significant reduction in mortality before it was discontinued. Within a fortnight we should also have the results from some of the Tocilizumab and Siltuximab trials, both of which released interim results that suggested a decent level of efficacy in severe cases. Towards the end of the month we should also start to hear about interim results from plasma therapy trials, as well as reports from the Chinese and Oxford vaccine studies.
Overall I think we will end the month a lot better placed than we began it.
Overall I think we will end the month a lot better placed than we began it.
Agree with a lot of what you say but this bit...
...is not true at all. All the better designed studies give single digit % prevalence. More of an ice cube than an iceberg.
I disagree with your last paragraph too. Early on in this thing there were loads of complaints of fear mongering and we saw British young people crowding pubs when all the countries around the UK were already in lockdown. If we’ve learned anything from the thousands of British people already killed by this virus (with thousands more deaths, young and old, to follow) it’s that it wasn’t taken seriously enough. If we’ve got to a stage where young healthy people are nervous to go to Tescos then that’s great. Because that’s what’s needed to stop another massive surge. Let’s not forget that second peak of the Spanish flu killed more than the first.
Thank's man. Let's hope it continues.
12-14 days, you know how long it usually take to end up in hospital and then die from this virus right mate?
That point alone is telling and actually backs up my point rather than yours like you think it does.
Common sense alone tells you a week 9 half term in the alps was much worse than a week 7 or 8, you surely realise that right? Do we even need to mention how much more testing Norway were doing than Sweden even in early stages to catch so many cases that you are going off from March 12th? Even now, with 13000 more “confirmed cases” than Norway, you guys have still done almost 50,000 more tests.
Last edited:
Good post.
The government has a seriously difficult job to do with regards to communicating how to relax the current measures. There are far too many people that have lost sight of reality, and have consumed themselves with this virus, as if it’s the only variable that contributes towards danger and death. I’ve followed the measures, I agreed with them and I understand the severity of the virus, but those people that harbour views relating to “full” or continuous lockdowns are too narrow in their thinking.
Recent reports indicate that there has been a 75% reduction in emergency cancer diagnosis. That’s deeply troubling. You factor in heart attacks, strokes and suicide (which will all increase in light of the incoming economic fallout and probable implementation of austerity) and the effects of lockdown may begin to outweigh the primary impact of the virus.
It’s concerning that expressing this view makes you some sort of pariah, void of all apparent empathy. Given someone has already used the word ‘sociopath’ in response to you, I fear we’re in yet more division within the public. The public will begin to argue about fall out about this, big-style.
Last edited:
Hopefully the 3rd model as looks like we could cope under lesser lockdowns.
Aaaand again. Why are you talking about week 7-8? I specifically told you in my last post that the Norwegians were infected alongside the Swedes in Austria. This dishonest way of debating is a waste of time.
I might be alright with a bit of practice then, Mrs numbers has already made some for the family, with copper strips in , so they should be washable. I'm guessing you will approve of the fabric.If you can get one with the metal strip that goes over your nose you can pinch that tight, and it helps with the glasses problem. We have to wear them while driving here for some weird reason, and it's difficult. You have to sneakily free your nose.
fecking hell mate, for every single country the vast majority of holidays are taken during school holidays.
Week 9 was horrific timing.
You guys had week 7-8, as did the other Scandy cities, including Malmö and GBG.
Stockholm had a shit load more people in the alps during week 9 than any other Scandinavian country, and it shows.
If you think just as many Oslo people were in the alps as Stockholmers during week 9, you’re off your rocker.
If you think there was anywhere close to as much corona in the alps during week 7-8, you’re off your rocker.
Maybe I'm dense but there's no numbers on those so they just look like illustrations of waves.
Edit: I see the months but there's still nothing to indicate how many cases there are
You're debating the guy who thinks that many in this thread are anarchists who want to see the collapse of the western world. He'll never concede anything, so it's a bit pointless to try.
The real nightmare scenario is a peak during autumn/winter. People tend to forget that seasonal illnesses brings health services to their knees on every normal year, over the winter months. And they haven’t gone away. Adding covid on top of the usual cluster feck doesn’t bear thinking about.
Although I do think covid social distancing will see a big drop in all respiratory infections. Hopefully.