SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Skills said:
Are the nightingale hospitals even staffed? You can build hospitals, but if it means you're going to have to split your nursing/doctor resource between them they'll be quite hesitant to use them even if the other hospitals are running overcapacity.
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The London one had staffing issues but other hospitals were able to cope with the excess. I think most have barely been used and I don’t think this one was used at all. They’re talking of decommissioning them all.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52284262
 
It is almost as if restrictions have avoided an even worse situation ;)
 
Here’s some details from an article on the Nightingale hospitals from Medscape

In the UK there are a total of 17 field hospitals being built or completed in recent weeks, seven in England (London, Bristol, Birmingham, Manchester, Harrogate, Exeter, Tyne & Wear) eight in Wales (Cardiff, Neath, Abercynon, Llanelli, Llandudno, Flintshire, Denbighshire, Bangor) and one each in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Logistical support from members of Britain’s military COVID Support Force as part of Operation Rescript has enabled building work and creation of these new field hospitals to happen in record quick time.

Bed Capacity
The total bed capacity of all the proposed Nightingale Hospitals totals could be more than 13,000.

However, Dr David Rosser, chief executive of University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust said Birmingham's Nightingale hospital is "not being used at all" 10 days after it was opened. Dr Rosser claimed this was "a good thing" because it demonstrated that the NHS had coped with the extra pressure put on it by COVID-19. The temporary hospital, which was built in 8 days and has the potential capacity for 4000 patients over a 75,000 sq ft area, opened on April 10th. However, West Midlands Mayor Andy Street admitted it has 'not needed to be used'.

Usage
Similarly, the flagship ExCel Nightingale in east London treated just 26 patients last week, down from a peak of 41. Currently NHS critical care capacity in London is holding up well, with existing hospitals managing despite the significant increase in demand for care. NHS England said NHS trusts have already freed up more than 33,000 beds, the equivalent of 50 new hospitals. These successful measures mean hospitals still have sufficient staff, beds and equipment available to deal with Covid-19, but the Nightingales provide an extra reserve of capacity if required. NHS Chief Executive Sir Simon Stevens said: "It will count as a huge success for the whole country if we never need to use them but with further waves of coronavirus possible it is important that we have these extra facilities in place and treating patients."

Staffing Nightingales
Despite concern that there is a lack of staff to run the hospitals, NHS Nightingale Hospitals in London and Yorkshire & the Humber are currently not accepting any more applications due to the high volumes received.

He said that the team were faced with a very difficult situation where there were people who may die because of the lack of a ventilator so they had to do something. He said, "we would have to find a way, we would have had to stretch staff, skilled staff, supporting them with less skilled staff in a way to try and make that work because, the alternative was unthinkable".
When he talked about stretching staff he said that this situation had turned "decades of intensive care medicine on its head" in that, traditionally critical care meant one-to-one nursing of patients in side rooms but was now being delivered on a current patient ratio of one to four. But if numbers of COVID-19 positive patients increase patient/nurse ratio would go down to one nurse for six patients. He admitted this "would stretch the skilled staff more than they ordinarily would be".
 
One Night Only said:
Even if things eventually go back to normal, pubs won't have the custom they once did, people will realise they didn't need the pubs and probably frequent less.

I personally love the pub though, the locals, the bar staff, I know a lot of people from the local. Alot of people who live alone or retired just go in for something to do and to socialise. Hope my local pulls through. Should do hopefully though.
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I am sleeping partner in a couple of restaurants: generally speaking, we need 50% table occupancy over a week @ a certain bill size to cover all costs (rent, interest on capital loans, ingredients, salaries) and break even. Generally speaking we'd get between 60-75% table occupancy. Pre virus, we recorded our record ever profits with 83% table occupancy.

Physical distancing plans we've looked at could offer maximum 50-55% table availability. There is zero chance we would ever get 100% occupancy from that availability. More likely max we could achieve is 75% table occupancy from the 55% available AND that will be at a lower average bill size.

ie < 40% .... so we'd run at a major loss. That obviously doesn't work.

I cant see any way how we make any profit whatsoever by implementing physical distancing, and instead we would run up huge losses.

I'm assuming same is true for most independent pubs or bars.

'Restaurants and pubs can re open adopting physical distancing' is just a throw away statement; reality is most wont be able to do so profitably.

May not be true for bigger restaurant or pub chains, I don't know how their business model works as well.
 
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Personally I think Maslow's hierarchy of needs will be a accurate guideline for how humans adapt during the pre vaccine phase, as they re-calibrate consumption and spending choices.

Until a vaccine is found and vast majority of people are immunised, I suspect jobs within providing humans physiological and safety needs will be safe, and indeed some organisations will grow and thrive in that space.

But as people cut back on non essential spending, industries built around providing humanity with love and belonging, esteem or self actualisation will really struggle or temporarily disappear. Basically the higher your job is within delivering Maslow's hierarchy of needs, the more precarious your immediate future income prospects are.

Anyone whose income is reliant higher up the hierarchy and loses their job should re-skill asap in providing humans with physiological and safety needs. Once the vaccine arrives, they can then plot your way upwards again.
 
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The woman in glasses made some sense, in a conspiracy theorist kind of way, until she said the virus may or may not be real. Then she lost me. Stand her in a ward off covid patients for a few hours and let her see for herself. The others are just nut cases. Thankfully there seemed to be very little support with them and no guns.
 
Looking at different polls today, will vaccine actually allow us to get back to the normal that we are used to? Here almost half people say they will never get vaccine. If rest of world is similar then the issue will still remain despite vaccine.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
You haven’t suffered the same sort of strict lockdown as Italy but you have suffered a very similar death toll.

That’s something I’ve noticed about the UK media. They immersed us with footage of crying Italian doctors and reports of a completely overwhelmed health service in Italy, when their crisis was at its peak. But now an epidemic of almost exactly the same scale is happening in the UK it’s getting reported on in a far less emotive manner.
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Yeah. That has been a bit weird. The UK has a thing about dramatising overseas poverty and crises, and completely downplaying domestic equivalents. You see it all through our fundraising and charity appeals. Reporting on terrorism is another example of where we have very short memories of the UK being an epicentre at one point.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Not a dumb question at all. Asymptomatic transmission is the elephant in the room when it comes to this idea that really aggressive testing and tracing can stop transmission after lockdown. You can’t test and trace people who have no idea they’re infected.
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How likely is it that Dybala is still infectious after 6 weeks? Isn’t it probable that anyone who tests positive that many times, that long after their first symptoms, is similar to the South Korean cases we read about earlier? And that it would be highly unlikely he’s still contagious, or suffering from symptoms, and ultimately testing positive that long after you first got the virus really doesn’t mean much at all other than simply the fact that he had it in the recent past?

For what it’s worth, I’m not sure what your view on this is but the official NHS advice on their website if I recall correctly is that you aren’t contagious as long as you’ve gone 3 days without a fever, even if you still have a cough.

I think the issue in the media with Dybala is less about him being asymptomatic (he might not have been at the beginning) and more about why he’s testing positive weeks after. This obviously would cause people to panic without them understanding the details.

Of course, in a country with the testing strategy the UK has adopted, asymptomatic carriers are a massive issue and makes tracing basically impossible as long as you don’t test everyone you can.
 
Skills said:
Are the nightingale hospitals even staffed? You can build hospitals, but if it means you're going to have to split your nursing/doctor resource between them they'll be quite hesitant to use them even if the other hospitals are running overcapacity.
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I have my personal hunches on some of the Nightingale stuff, having had colleagues and staff directly involved in the Manchester one. I think they were done with best, sincere intentions by most working on them, but too often the headline grabbing initiatives of NHS organisations end up designed to hit a target but missing the point. Both the tracing app and the 100k testing programme are two other examples.

One thing I am certain they got wrong is using Manchester Central as a hospital and not as a main testing hub, when they instead used Manchester Airport which is far more difficult to get to. Public transport in GM is very spotty and badly connected.
 
Sarni said:
Looking at different polls today, will vaccine actually allow us to get back to the normal that we are used to? Here almost half people say they will never get vaccine. If rest of world is similar then the issue will still remain despite vaccine.
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Surely if the governments do their part and provide the vaccines, and some people don’t take them, it’ll be their problem? We can’t build our lives around people who don’t want to utilise the solution.
 
NYAS said:
How likely is it that Dybala is still infectious after 6 weeks? Isn’t it probable that anyone who tests positive that many times, that long after their first symptoms, is similar to the South Korean cases we read about earlier? And that it would be highly unlikely he’s still contagious, or suffering from symptoms, and ultimately testing positive that long after you first got the virus really doesn’t mean much at all other than simply the fact that he had it in the recent past?

For what it’s worth, I’m not sure what your view on this is but the official NHS advice on their website if I recall correctly is that you aren’t contagious as long as you’ve gone 3 days without a fever, even if you still have a cough.

I think the issue in the media with Dybala is less about him being asymptomatic (he might not have been at the beginning) and more about why he’s testing positive weeks after. This obviously would cause people to panic without them understanding the details.

Of course, in a country with the testing strategy the UK has adopted, asymptomatic carriers are a massive issue and makes tracing basically impossible as long as you don’t test everyone you can.
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Had to google the Dybala thing. Was news to me.

The Argentine striker was one of the first Juventus players to contract Covid-19, along with Italian defender Daniele Rugani and French midfielder Blaise Matuidi, but has made a recovery.

"He is doing well now, he has no symptoms and is even training. Now he is waiting for the results of the latest two swabs," the source said.Dybala has to respect the healthcare system and the time it takes. He is a soccer player and doesn't get preferential treatment."

Dybala has had four tests overall. The first two tests came back positive but is now currently awaiting the results of the third and fourth tests.

It is unclear when each of Dybala's tests took place.
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My money’s on those third and fourth tests being negative and this being a fuss about nothing.
 
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Does anyone have a good guess why Western European countries have been doing so much worse than Eastern European countries? Especially considering that they have a significantly better medical system.

Also, it is surprising to see the massive difference between Latvia and Lithuania/Estonia, as is that between Slovenia and Czech Republic.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Had to google the Dybala thing. Was news to me.



My money’s on those third and fourth tests being negative and this being a fuss about nothing.
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Yeah, I personally contracted the virus about a month ago and the idea that I may still be infectious now was a bit mad to me!
 
Revan said:
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Does anyone have a good guess why Western European countries have been doing so much worse than Eastern European countries? Especially considering that they have a significantly better medical system.

Also, it is surprising to see the massive difference between Latvia and Lithuania/Estonia, as is that between Slovenia and Czech Republic.
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Probably has to do with the amount of international travel. The only reason the virus got off to a start in Norway in the first place is that so many Norwegians went to Austria and Italy and brought it back.
 
nimic said:
Probably has to do with the amount of international travel. The only reason the virus got off to a start in Norway in the first place is that so many Norwegians went to Austria and Italy and brought it back.
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Not sure. Thousands of Polish people go to Italy/Austria for winter break every year and did so this year as well between December and February.
 
Revan said:
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Does anyone have a good guess why Western European countries have been doing so much worse than Eastern European countries? Especially considering that they have a significantly better medical system.

Also, it is surprising to see the massive difference between Latvia and Lithuania/Estonia, as is that between Slovenia and Czech Republic.
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Rigorous measures have been implemented in Eastern Europe. I have heard Hungary and Slovakia have closed schools until September rather early. In Serbia you are asked not to leave your house in the evening and on weekends. Some of the countries have closed their Airports completely. These are just some examples....
 
UweBein said:
Rigorous measures have been implemented in Eastern Europe. I have heard Hungary and Slovakia have closed schools until September rather early. In Serbia you are asked not to leave your house in the evening and on weekends. Some of the countries have closed their Airports completely. These are just some examples....
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Yep, I guess so. Originally, I come from Kosovo, and the measures (who started before the first identified case) have been extreme. When a case was identified in a municipality, the entire municipality was put under quarantine. And when the number started increasing, then any person was able to leave their house only for 1.5 hours per day (based on the last digit of their ID). More or less everything was shut down (schools were shut down a few days before the first case).

Only 21 deaths so far (for a population of 2 million people), which is pretty good considering the extremely poor health system. But still, the difference in deaths look too extreme. No Balkanian country except Northern Macedonia has more than 3 deaths per 100k people (no Eastern European country has more than 5 deaths per 100k), while no WesternEuropean country has less than 3 deaths per 100k people.
 
Penna said:
I have a few friends in England who fall into the "elderly but really healthy and active" group. I think there could have been some gradual differentiation when it comes to older people. I've mentioned before my friend who's over 70 but runs a 5k every single morning, and I have another friend in her late 70s who cycles, swims and plays badminton every day. They're both slim with no health conditions.

It's illogical to be telling them to stay inside all the time, it's worse for their mental health than their physical health.
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^^^^ Found Wayne Rooney's account^^^^^^
 
Anyone feel like they’ve been living in a bubble the last few weeks? I see a lot less news when I’m not working which means I’ve kind of lost track of what’s going on. It’s got to the point where I’m starting to feel guilty for not going into work even though I’m self employed and not getting paid. Pretty sure I’m off next week and then we’ll see. Isn’t next week the last week of the latest shutdown so there may be relaxations? How are the positive cases/death numbers going?
 
Revan said:
Good news, but it will likely take another 2-3 months to actually get the results of clinical trials. Until them, remdesivir seems to be the most effective drug (though it is not working near as good as what researchers hoped for).
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Agreed.
 
Silva said:
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In Australia it is Old People's homes, hospitals with a single meat packing plant as well. Almost all have been traced back to the Diamond Princess that dropped a large number of infected people without quarantine in Sydney a few weeks ago.
 
Iowa Workforce Development, a state agency that provides employment services for individual workers, said an employee’s refusal return to work out of fear would be considered a “voluntary quit” – which would mean they could no longer receive unemployment benefits. The announcement applies to workers across the state.
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https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...r-lose-unemployment-benefits-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

All these backward states are frothing to reopen. They couldn't give two shits about the health of their people, they just want to kick people off unemployment. Also McConnell is trying to give corporations liability protections to force workers back. That country is going to explode with cases.
 
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Revan said:
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Does anyone have a good guess why Western European countries have been doing so much worse than Eastern European countries?
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They got a smaller dose of virus in late Feb-early March. The most important factor in all these comparisons. I mean, surely fecking Belarus tells you that? Their leader still denies corona is even an issue.

Why did New Jersey do so much better than New York?

Why did Massachusetts do even better still?

Also, why is that Belgium number on the map so incorrect?
 
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horsechoker said:
According to figures that the Italian media use 28,710 people have died in Italy
https://lab.gedidigital.it/gedi-vis...talia/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I249998895-C12-P3-S1.8-L

According to the UK government's figures 28,131 people have died in the UK.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

I'm not sure if the Italian source is an official number but there's only a difference of 579 deaths between the two.
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Italy and Spain still have to release their large numbers of care home deaths and UK probably has more. It was estimated 40k deaths in Italy a long while back but sheer amount of backlog means it takes time to go through it all. Barcelona for Spain have 3500 not yet added.
 
Silva said:
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Locations like prisons, care homes and ships are easy to understand in this context.

But meat packing plants - why? A single site seems easy to understand, but what makes/made these sites so hazardous? The obvious things that could impact it like pay/sickpay/health insurance and even proximity would seem to apply to other workplaces. Is it because of their size or is it some other environmental/chemical/other factor?
 
Revan said:
95632761_10157437845571743_3097243759167930368_o.jpg


Does anyone have a good guess why Western European countries have been doing so much worse than Eastern European countries? Especially considering that they have a significantly better medical system.

Also, it is surprising to see the massive difference between Latvia and Lithuania/Estonia, as is that between Slovenia and Czech Republic.
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Slavs are just tougher.
 
jojojo said:
Locations like prisons, care homes and ships are easy to understand in this context.

But meat packing plants - why? A single site seems easy to understand, but what makes/made these sites so hazardous? The obvious things that could impact it like pay/sickpay/health insurance and even proximity would seem to apply to other workplaces. Is it because of their size or is it some other environmental/chemical/other factor?
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You can't space employees out, because the nature of the job doesn't allow it. No-one can work from home and there's constant pressure to keep the lines running because Americans eat so much meat. The people who work in the plants are primarily those who would already be at higher-risk, because of socio-economic disadvantages. Many meat packing plants have a history of poor working conditions and low pay.

The push to keep operating at full capacity is exacerbated by pressure from farmers who run super-huge battery farms, where the animals have a very short life from birth to slaughter. If they can't move the animals along to slaughter, they have to "depopulate" the farms - euphemism for killing (not particularly humanely) large numbers of animals and poultry which can't then go into the food chain. It's hideous, really.
 
Dumbstar said:
The woman in glasses made some sense, in a conspiracy theorist kind of way, until she said the virus may or may not be real. Then she lost me. Stand her in a ward off covid patients for a few hours and let her see for herself. The others are just nut cases. Thankfully there seemed to be very little support with them and no guns.
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You wonder how some people get through their day if they are so suspicious of everything.
 
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