https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52491210
Looks like they've been hit really hard in care homes.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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Looks like they've been hit really hard in care homes.
Belgium are counting suspected deaths as well as confirmed. For example, 16% of care home deaths there had positive results but the other 84% make up suspected cases. This probably makes their figures a lot closer to reality than other countries but looks bad on first glance.
They also had problems similar to the UK at the start with PPE shortages etc.
Excess deaths take the different reporting criteria into account. They just show how many more people are dying - of any cause - than usual.
Same as Sweden.
Are they worse in excess deaths? I didn't realise that. The report linked to by Massive Spanner explains why the comparisons being used by the US (I know) against Belgium are not a good comparison.
Edit - maybe something to do with this quote from that article?
"Another factor is that many more people here put loved ones in care homes than elsewhere in Europe. "
Yeah. The worst excess deaths in Europe are in Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, UK and Sweden. They stand out quite a bit from everyone else.
The number of people in care homes is a good point. I’ve heard that mentioned before. Early on, we thought that median age of a country would be most important factor but it now looks like it’s much more important where their elderly citizens live.
What I haven’t heard about is whether Sweden has a higher % of elderly in care homes than their neighbours. This might explain a lot, if so.
Bars and restaurants open in the Czech Republic today
My partner works for a Czech company and we've a lot of ties there. It's kinda hilarious how the policy has shifted from "shut the borders for two years" to "ok, stuff is open and we need tourism after all".
Weston General is a district general hospital but just a reminder how local outbreaks can quickly overwhelm services. Some rightly pointing out how this is around a fortnight post-VE day celebrations too
Yeah, I thought the same. Things went back shockingly fast, to be honest. There are already events, parties etc. Gyms, pools are open as well.
Most people still work from home, mind. Best of both worlds.
The borders situation is still far from normal though, obviously. I've had some friends come back to Prague form their home countries with a negative test (no quarantine) but it's still a hassle - you need to get the green light from the embassy first. My cousin is trying to get to Bulgaria from Poland with a car and couldn't make it past the CZ border so far.
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Yeah, that was Zeman who made the comment about the borders, wasn't it? Best not to take him too seriously. I'll be over there the moment the border opens, presumably Jun 14.
Yes there were plenty of party's with no social distancing. Blitz spirit mate.
Darwinism in action.
I think around that time the tabloids were speculating about a potential relaxation of lockdown which was followed by congas and street parties, that hospital is around a seaside resort as well.
I was just reading the official requirements there. Most of em are quite clear and sound strict, but there's one that says you can enter the country if it's "in the interest" of the country. Sounds ripe for exploiting. There's another one too that mentions "economic activity".
Belgium is also one of the most densely populated countries in Europe, I think. About 383p/km² compared to Sweden's 25p/Km², according to worldometers. Bound to make a difference.
FFS
That doesn't tell the whole story though as I would guess the vast majority of Swedish people live in the south of the country so population density across the whole area is a bit misleading.
True. I also note that the Netherlands is more densely populated and has more people in care homes per population than Belgium. So it's probably a mix of factors.
Was this when those muppets were dancing along a rope in the street?
l
Excess deaths. Belgium had early measures and early lockdown yet had a similar result to UK
Does anyone know if/when other countries (primarily European countries) will start to include/report care home deaths in official figures? I wonder if this will reposition the UK in the overall outbreak in Europe.
I bit of a spike now, when more manageable, might be a good time to teach us a lesson for the longer term.
Stupid question perhaps but looking at excess deaths alone and drawing conclusions of Covid whilst reasonable does risk 'expected' outliers being misrepresented doesn't it? In the UK it's against the average 5 year trend which isn't a lot of data.
Especially when you do it globally, there's bound to be several countries that have death rates way above their 5 year trend almost every year. Impossible to say what percentage of excess is outlier or covid.
Especially when you do it globally, there's bound to be several countries that have death rates way above their 5 year trend almost every year. Impossible to say what percentage of excess is outlier or covid.
That was in Warrington wasn't it?
That’s easily corrected by looking at the range of mortality, year by year. The people publishing these papers (see above re Sweden) will be smart enough to factor this in.
I actually don’t know what sort of fluctuations you get in mortality, from one year to the next but I’d be surprised if it ever reaches double digits. If you think about what drives mortality you just don’t get big changes from one year to the next. The exception being war or previous pandemics (e.g. H1N1 influenza) So a 67% increase has to be almost entirely covid driven.
l
Excess deaths. Belgium had early measures and early lockdown yet had a similar result to UK
Italy, Netherlands, Spain, are all closer to Belgium than Belgium is to the Uk in excess deaths. Look at the percentage. Not the shape of the graph.
When was ‘Early’? Not by date, but measured against estimate of virus in the country at the time.
Death Stats
It varies lots. Data link above. Not attempting to make a comment on the 67% but there’s some data.
I was asking a very pixieish question.
Folks can’t treat these lockdown dates as meaningful, without knowing how much virus was in the country. They also can’t look at a graph like that and take anything meaningful from it. It’s close to useless.
The UK never had a lockdown like Spain or Italy. I don’t know what Belgium’s looked like. Everywhere is different and nobody is accounting for that.
Nobody really knows how many actual cases (including all mild cases that never became a positive test) were in the country at any time.
We’re at a point now that the Data and Graphs and statements attached need to go through some common sense revolution.
Much more regional. Higher threshold of reporting. More detail about the included data. Some attempt at standardisation. Charts with countries from all over the globe are largely worthless for us to move forward with now.
The graph is also wrong, at least for France localized and national recommendations started in mid february.
Two weeks of schools and shopping centers being open again here in Estonia. Still early days but we announced just one positive test in last 24 hours, good sign that, best since day one.
Those are interesting stats but do basically support my point. Over a 13 year period the year with the most deaths is a 12% increase on the year with the lowest deaths. With usually lowish single digit fluctuation from year to year.
EDIT: Year with most excess deaths in that 13 year period is just 6% higher than the average!
Have Belarus just pretended the virus isn't happening or something? No recommendations and no lock down?
Yes. They receive a lot of praise in Poland for their approach.
Yeah I was attempting to help not challenge
Vodka and fresh air was the recommendation by comrade Lukashenka.
And I've been wondering: Surely their hospitals have been overwhelmed by now?
I suspect after the Youtuber, Bald & Bankrupt's videos on Belarus, I bet they didn't suffer from any Covid 'imports'.
https://www.fpm.org.uk/blog/does-sars-cov-2-cause-a-vascular-disease/
This is interesting (blog posted on Faculty website that I’m a member of) Probably need to be a medic (or some sort of life science qualification) to understand it.
Basic premise is that this might be completely different disease to SARS/MERS, which primarily attack the airways in the lungs. It’s possible that this spares the airways but wrecks the tiny blood vessels that surround them. Which has big implications for treatment options.
This is interesting (blog posted on Faculty website that I’m a member of) Probably need to be a medic (or some sort of life science qualification) to understand it.
Basic premise is that this might be completely different disease to SARS/MERS, which primarily attack the airways in the lungs. It’s possible that this spares the airways but wrecks the tiny blood vessels that surround them. Which has big implications for treatment options.