SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Fluctuation0161]

Interesting country comparison.

WHICH COUNTRIES DO BEST IN BEATING COVID-19?

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries

 

[Vidyoyo]

Unless you work in a school. Or you cannot work from home and your boss decides that you are not shielding anymore so you need to go to work. Not everyone can work from home.

There are many scenarios where someone who wants to shield may not be able to "use their common sense" now because of this change in policy.

Exactly. The government's actions have suddenly created much more pressure for those trying to maintain social distancing.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Sadly common sense isn’t thought in schools, so not many know anything about sense.

Don’t make some snide comment about schools in a sentence you’ve used Thought instead of Taught.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I wasn't criticising governments or putting forward a notion of the correct plan of action. I was just saying that there is now evidence that suggests re-opening the economy might not have the catastrophic consequences many people worried about, which means governments have a bit more leeway in how conservative they choose to be. Before it was the only choice, now it's a case of weighing up options. In which case there's a bit more room for reasonable disagreement. The idea that there's no evidence or no justification for an accelerated return to normal completely dismisses the idea of any reasonable discussion. Yes there may be negative consequences to it, but that's how it has to be, end of discussion. I was just putting forward some evidence to say it is at least a legitimate discussion. Things have gone better in the European countries coming out of lockdown than they expected, and it's possible that coming out of lockdown quicker would not have severe health consequences while it could plausibly lessen the economic damage.

I was thinking about this discussion again just now. Something else I should have pointed out was the graph of previous pandemics. You get a spike, followed by a flat line, then another spike. With usually at least a couple of months on the flat line. What you never see is two spikes, side by side, bases touching.

Now, to be honest, I’m not entirely sure what causes that flat line but I do know that countries not experiencing an immediate rebound coming out of lockdown shouldn’t provide us with much reassurance. Not until those countries are at least a month out or two out of lockdown. Which is still several weeks away.

Spanish flu mortality:

 

[AaronRedDevil]

Don’t make some snide comment about schools in a sentence you’ve used Thought instead of Taught.

It’s call autocorrect . Half asleep when I wrote it.

 

[Kag]

Excellent post. Sadly there are idiots throughout the world who are not phased by the pandemic and never will be. So at the end of the day all countries are/will have to grit their teeth in an attempt to limit the severity of the recessions. It’s no good pontificating and wringing hands about the need to look after the poor, disabled and disadvantaged if the money continues to dry up. Me and mine will probably not help the situation either. My wife and I are in the at risk category but like a lot of our generation we are lucky to have disposable income but be buggered if we are going to want to fly in a tin coffin for 3 or more hours any time in the future. Similarly sod shopping in the high street. We will get by with online. As for walking into a Starbucks or Costa.....forget it. Now many will adopt the same attitude. For every idiot there is a sensible person that will act with caution in the future. The world has been and will continue to be hit hard. I really do have enormous sympathy for the younger generations. Even a decent left wing government is going to be in desperate financial straights for years to come. The only thing I shall really miss is goodbye to the United season ticket. My days of going to Old Trafford are gone and I don’t think I will be the only one.

Are you suggesting that people that continue to do things like fly on aeroplanes, partake in high street shopping and visit Starbucks for a coffee are idiots? It’s a fairly warped view of the situation, if so.

 

[Smores]

People have to make their own decisions. Just because the government says you can go out it doesn’t mean you have to.

Common sense is the best weapon in this world and if other idiots want to head out and mingle just let them try the herd immunity route. If you know how sensible your family members are you can make your own judgements.

If only it was so simple and there were no consequences to other people acting like idiots.

I've long accepted the country isn't capable of acting like grown ups but the idea of individual choice on what is a collective issue doesn't fly. We'd have never dealt with the second hand smoke issue with such thinking.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Interesting.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

"Berlin celebrating victory over Corona"

 

[Wolverine]

Interesting.

I'm trying to envision somebody from SAGE explaining forrest plots to Boris. The only thing that'll interest him is the fact that its also referred to as a blobbogram.

 

[golden_blunder]

Why is boris skipping steps?

Is it to try and take the limelight of Cummings?

With sports events happening and the vulnerable allowed out we've jumped to alert level 1

is this correct? I mean yesterday Raab was talking about transitioning from level 4 to level 3? I don’t see anything about this on the bbc

 

[golden_blunder]

They have made it a political decision rather than scientific. Making a total disaster much worse.

It makes me think of Michael Gove “the people are fed up listening to experts”

 

[Pexbo]

is this correct? I mean yesterday Raab was talking about transitioning from level 4 to level 3? I don’t see anything about this on the bbc

Look at what Level 1 is supposed to coincide with rather than what Level we are supposed to be entering.

We have sports events returning in a couple of weeks and the guidelines for shielding were updated today. Both of these things were not supposed to happen until Level 1 was reached which is based on a very low R. The R is currently close to the value for Level 5 in the initial graph yet we are accelerating to Level 1 measures.


The entire thing is an absolute farce.

 

[Virgil]

Are you suggesting that people that continue to do things like fly on aeroplanes, partake in high street shopping and visit Starbucks for a coffee are idiots? It’s a fairly warped view of the situation, if so.

No I am not. What I am suggesting is that there is a sizeable minority of folk across all nations who are considered to be at risk. What you won’t see many of them doing is ignoring guidelines except in the most limited fashion. Yes they will mix with family and friends but they will remain cautious and conservative with a small c whatever the idiots such as Cummings do. In similar fashion they will not be like most of the young who understandably believe that even if they do get Covid they will be OK. To illustrate my point just look at the recent shots of the packed beaches. Hard to find many 60 and 70 pluses amongst the crowds yet many of that age group have kept the hospitality and leisure industry coffers ringing. And in respect of air travel, coffee shops and high street shopping I do not see as many of the older generation taking the risk whilst their prospects are poor if they contract the virus. IMHO what was normal behaviour for a sizeable number of the worlds population ain’t never going to be the same again.

 

[golden_blunder]

Look at what Level 1 is supposed to coincide with rather than what Level we are supposed to be entering.

We have sports events returning in a couple of weeks and the guidelines for shielding were updated today. Both of these things were not supposed to happen until Level 1 was reached which is based on a very low R. The R is currently close to the value for Level 5 in the initial graph yet we are accelerating to Level 1 measures.


The entire thing is an absolute farce.

I totally agree with you. If people weren’t dying I’d say it’s comical.
Still, can anyone confirm that it’s now alert level 1?

 

[Smores]

I totally agree with you. If people weren’t dying I’d say it’s comical.
Still, can anyone confirm that it’s now alert level 1?

We're officially at level 4 still because the government don't set it. Hence they're taking about transitioning to justify some of the easing despite being clear that all measures were dependent on threat level, they lied basically.

Decent thread that touches on some of it

 

[arnie_ni]

is this correct? I mean yesterday Raab was talking about transitioning from level 4 to level 3? I don’t see anything about this on the bbc

We arent actually on level 1 but they are alowing everything to begin which was only supposed to be happening when we reached level one, therefore we ate defacto level 1

 

[golden_blunder]

We arent actually on level 1 but they are alowing everything to begin which was only supposed to be happening when we reached level one, therefore we ate defacto level 1

I’m trying to confirm the original tweet tbh

 

[Penna]

No I am not. What I am suggesting is that there is a sizeable minority of folk across all nations who are considered to be at risk. What you won’t see many of them doing is ignoring guidelines except in the most limited fashion. Yes they will mix with family and friends but they will remain cautious and conservative with a small c whatever the idiots such as Cummings do. In similar fashion they will not be like most of the young who understandably believe that even if they do get Covid they will be OK. To illustrate my point just look at the recent shots of the packed beaches. Hard to find many 60 and 70 pluses amongst the crowds yet many of that age group have kept the hospitality and leisure industry coffers ringing. And in respect of air travel, coffee shops and high street shopping I do not see as many of the older generation taking the risk whilst their prospects are poor if they contract the virus. IMHO what was normal behaviour for a sizeable number of the worlds population ain’t never going to be the same again.

I agree with all of this. We're in the same situation as you and your wife, albeit in a different country. We haven't taken advantage of any of the lockdown easing yet because just like in the UK, there is still a significant risk in Italy. We are also people who would spend a lot on travel, but now we have nothing booked except a 3-day trip to the south of the country later this month. That feels fairly safe, in view of the low infection rates there. We may yet cancel if it looks like things are worsening again.

If we were in our 20s and in perfect health, I'm sure we'd have a very different perspective.

 

[lynchie]

We arent actually on level 1 but they are alowing everything to begin which was only supposed to be happening when we reached level one, therefore we ate defacto level 1

This isn't true though. Level 1 is "Routine international monitoring" with absolutely no social distancing measures in place. Level 3 is "Gradual relaxing of restrictions".

You can criticise them for starting level 3 too early, or argue that the current measures aren't gradual, but let's not just make stuff up.

 

[Smores]

The only source i can find on the vulnerable persons being tagged to Level 1 is the early media reports. Both the Guardian and Telegraph went with the exact same wording so I'm guessing they were briefed but no formal guidance against the stages seem to have ever been set out.

 

[SteveJ]

The shape of things to come (elsewhere)?:

Police in Scotland were forced to disperse people five times more often on Saturday than the previous week, as people flouted social distancing rules as the lockdown was eased.

Nicola Sturgeon warned that if people in Scotland continue to flout lockdown restrictions, measures which are currently only put in place as guidelines will be enforced as law.

 

[arnie_ni]

Updated government shielding advice:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ng-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19

I’m trying to confirm the original tweet tbh

This isn't true though. Level 1 is "Routine international monitoring" with absolutely no social distancing measures in place. Level 3 is "Gradual relaxing of restrictions".

You can criticise them for starting level 3 too early, or argue that the current measures aren't gradual, but let's not just make stuff up.

Vulnerable people can leave home as per alert level 1

 

[SteveJ]

'Thousands of people have been queuing outside Ikea stores after the furniture chain reopened 19 shops in England and Northern Ireland.

Some customers reported waiting for four hours to enter stores as they opened for the first time in nearly three months at 10am on Monday.

Pictures showed huge numbers of people snaking across car parks and even alongside a road in Belfast, while maintaining strict social distancing rules.'

 

[lynchie]

Vulnerable people can leave home as per alert level 1

Right, your 10 word response clearly shows a rounded and measured view of the updated guidance. You realise it comes with the following caveats

1. If you wish to spend time outdoors (though not in other buildings, households, or enclosed spaces) you should take extra care to minimise contact with others by keeping 2 metres apart.
2. If you choose to spend time outdoors, this can be with members of your own household. If you live alone, you can spend time outdoors with one person from another household (ideally the same person each time).
3. You should stay alert when leaving home: washing your hands regularly, maintaining social distance and avoiding gatherings of any size.
4. You should not attend any gatherings, including gatherings of friends and families in private spaces, for example, parties, weddings and religious services.
5. You should strictly avoid contact with anyone who is displaying symptoms of COVID-19 (a new continuous cough, a high temperature, or a loss of, or change in, your sense of taste or smell).

So still very restricted, but apparently now taking on board the severe mental health toll of telling vulnerable people "don't go outside or you'll die!" for more than 12 weeks.

 

[Virgil]

I agree with all of this. We're in the same situation as you and your wife, albeit in a different country. We haven't taken advantage of any of the lockdown easing yet because just like in the UK, there is still a significant risk in Italy. We are also people who would spend a lot on travel, but now we have nothing booked except a 3-day trip to the south of the country later this month. That feels fairly safe, in view of the low infection rates there. We may yet cancel if it looks like things are worsening again.

If we were in our 20s and in perfect health, I'm sure we'd have a very different perspective.

We are in much the same boat. Only one of 5 trips scheduled for 2020 remaining and like yourself that we are keeping under review and not banking on it. As cancelled trips were ABTA covered we have not lost anything but thats not the point. Were we in our prime we would take a different attitude. Most of our friends except those with children abroad feel exactly the same. Lord knows how the leisure and hospitality sector is going to make up the shortfall people of my age and generation are going to cause.

 

[Penna]

We are in much the same boat. Only one of 5 trips scheduled for 2020 remaining and like yourself that we are keeping under review and not banking on it. As cancelled trips were ABTA covered we have not lost anything but thats not the point. Were we in our prime we would take a different attitude. Most of our friends except those with children abroad feel exactly the same. Lord knows how the leisure and hospitality sector is going to make up the shortfall people of my age and generation are going to cause.

We're the old folk with disposable income, Virgil. We'll be missed!

 

[Virgil]

We're the old folk with disposable income, Virgil. We'll be missed!

Yes although there might be more than the odd family member rubbing their hands in anticipation of inheriting more. They should be so lucky. Bollocks to that.

 

[decorativeed]

We are in much the same boat. Only one of 5 trips scheduled for 2020 remaining and like yourself that we are keeping under review and not banking on it. As cancelled trips were ABTA covered we have not lost anything but thats not the point. Were we in our prime we would take a different attitude. Most of our friends except those with children abroad feel exactly the same. Lord knows how the leisure and hospitality sector is going to make up the shortfall people of my age and generation are going to cause.

If you were in your prime, you'd have to be incredibly lucky to afford to go on five trips/overseas holidays per year. Pretty much the only positive to come from this situation is the reduction in emissions from traffic and flights.

 

[noodlehair]

I was thinking about this discussion again just now. Something else I should have pointed out was the graph of previous pandemics. You get a spike, followed by a flat line, then another spike. With usually at least a couple of months on the flat line. What you never see is two spikes, side by side, bases touching.

Now, to be honest, I’m not entirely sure what causes that flat line but I do know that countries not experiencing an immediate rebound coming out of lockdown shouldn’t provide us with much reassurance. Not until those countries are at least a month out or two out of lockdown. Which is still several weeks away.

Spanish flu mortality:

Thing is even with previous pandemics there's not much comparison to the modern day world. The data on the spanish flu itself is all very here and there due to how it was recorded at the time and the impact of some other quite problematic things going on in the world.

Basically I just don't think anyone really has a clue. We're going on guess work and on looking at countries that are at best maybe 3 weeks ahead, so I do think a lot of caution is necessary but also not to the point of letting it completely take over any room for discussion or manouvre, kind of as Brwned has said.

I'm not really comfortable with some of the more recent relaxtions though. They don't seem to make much sense to me. I think if you're going to allow people who are shielding to go outside it needs to be with a lot more emphasis on it being very much an individual judgement. These are the people we are meant to be doing all this to protect.

I still don't get why ALL the shops have to open on the same date. Why can't they open a few now, or say in a week's time, and monitor the impact (if any), then stagger re-opening? No one NEEDS to go to Primark on the 15th June. Also just find it completely bonkers that we'll still be bickering about whether a football game is safe, while 5,000 people sit on a beach so close together they probably keep elbowing each other in the face, and 500 people fight over some new dresses in a clothes store...and someone still can't go withion 2 metres of their own mum. It's like completely different people are making decisions on different things.

 

[sammsky1]

 

[Virgil]

If you were in your prime, you'd have to be incredibly lucky to afford to go on five trips/overseas holidays per year. Pretty much the only positive to come from this situation is the reduction in emissions from traffic and flights.

How daft of me.....it’s an age thing. You are quite right. Were I in my prime I would be struggling to pay the mortgage with 15% interest rate. A week at Skegness, Great Yarmouth or Brighton would have been the height of decadence

I also totally agree that the only real positive to come out of this pandemic to date relates to climate change.

 

[decorativeed]

How daft of me.....it’s an age thing. You are quite right. Were I in my prime I would be struggling to pay the mortgage with 15% interest rate. A week at Skegness, Great Yarmouth or Brighton would have been the height of decadence

I also totally agree that the only real positive to come out of this pandemic to date relates to climate change.

I only speak through jealousy! Being of the generation before mine gave people a way of life I don't think any future generations will be able to enjoy, sadly.

 

[Virgil]

I only speak through jealousy! Being of the generation before mine gave people a way of life I don't think any future generations will be able to enjoy, sadly.

And for my part in that I am truly sorry. Without doubt my generation had the very best of it. No world wars, no Great Depression, full employment, jobs for life, defined benefit pensions.....the list goes on. We really did have the chance to change the world and we failed miserably. Sadly I see no real change with the current generation. Mind you hope springs eternal.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

 

[Nytram Shakes]

Ok, grand, then I agree.

In Ireland we have a (cautious) plan to exit lockdown with every step laid out until August. There were loads of warnings at the beginning that we might not be able to progress as quickly as planned, if cases start to rise. They didn’t say it but I’m sure the opposite is also true. We can progress quicker than planned if things look better than expected. Based on what is happening here AND experience from other countries. There needs to be a willingness to flex the plan in both directions. I’m sure there is.

My only concern is politically motivated hastiness, which ignores the evidence and opinion of experts. This might be happening in the UK right now. Hopefully not.

I think there is definitely a hastiness, which is probably ignoring medical advice. But I suspect it isn't political more financial. In an ideal world, I'm sure the best medical thing to do would keep lockdown going for several more months. However, the country is living off its credit card, more and more people are needing support every day and to be fair the government isn't doing a bad job of providing it. But there are going to be serious financial implications for that and the sooner that can stop the better for everyone.

What the government have to deal with:

• The economic advisers going we need to open the economy now or the long term recession is going to be deeper, the cuts we need to make harsher and rise in poverty (with combined health consequences) greater.
• The health advisors going we can't open up as there may be a second spike and cause more deaths.

I'm not a Borris fan, I think he is bumbling manipulative git and I count myself as very left-wing, but if I'm honest I'm finding it hard to criticise him as I haven't got the foggiest what the right answer is, in fact, I'm pretty sure there isn't one, open up more people will likely die, don't open up and many more will likely live in poverty for a lot longer.... how the hell do you make the decision? No matter what you do people are going to suffer because of it.

 

[afrocentricity]

When will the UK numbers start to show the effects of people going out and interacting more recently?

 

[redshaw]

UK 111 deaths, 1570 cases, 128,437 tested 4.48 million total tests.

 

[Virgil]

I think there is definitely a hastiness, which is probably ignoring medical advice. But I suspect it isn't political more financial. In an ideal world, I'm sure the best medical thing to do would keep lockdown going for several more months. However, the country is living off its credit card, more and more people are needing support every day and to be fair the government isn't doing a bad job of providing it. But there are going to be serious financial implications for that and the sooner that can stop the better for everyone.

What the government have to deal with:

• The economic advisers going we need to open the economy now or the long term recession is going to be deeper, the cuts we need to make harsher and rise in poverty (with combined health consequences) greater.
• The health advisors going we can't open up as there may be a second spike and cause more deaths.

I'm not a Borris fan, I think he is bumbling manipulative git and I count myself as very left-wing, but if I'm honest I'm finding it hard to criticise him as I haven't got the foggiest what the right answer is, in fact, I'm pretty sure there isn't one, open up more people will likely die, don't open up and many more will likely live in poverty for a lot longer.... how the hell do you make the decision? No matter what you do people are going to suffer because of it.

+101 if I could. If I were Starmer I would be thanking my lucky stars that my party lost the last election.

 

[F-Red]

When will the UK numbers start to show the effects of people going out and interacting more recently?

In about a fortnight if it happens. I'm not sure what we will see, Bank Holidays haven't had a material affect in the death rate.