SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Mickeza]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/uk.n...um-institute-says-india-trials-094136604.html

Trials in India still ongoing for Oxford vaccine

Doesn’t seem like a great idea but this is encouraging if true:

Adar Poonawalla added, "The reaction that has been reported is not directly linked to the vaccine. The person who has had the reaction had an existing neurological condition. During a vaccine trial such events are common place."

 

[balaks]

Doesn’t seem like a great idea but this is encouraging if true:

Adar Poonawalla added, "The reaction that has been reported is not directly linked to the vaccine. The person who has had the reaction had an existing neurological condition. During a vaccine trial such events are common place."

Fingers crossed this turns out to be accurate.

 

[hmchan]

Someone suggested to me that this could have come about in line with the pledge to uphold safety procedures in all vaccine trials by major pharmaceutical companies in response to political calls to fast track approval.

Don't be naive. Pharmaceutical companies aren't charities, all they want is to develop a vaccine asap and maximize profits. Safety is important only for their reputation, and they will certainly do nothing more than required to harm their interests.

As for fast track approval, it's a common sense more than a political call. Normal approval process takes at least 1-2 years after submission of package and there's no way we'll wait that long to deal with this pandemic. It's also not something new and there's no problem as long as safety is not compromised.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Is there any evidence it’s seasonal? I thought the predictions of ‘second waves’ were due to opening up of lockdown measures as schools return. The reduction of spread in the summer months were due to the huge restrictions on movement and social contact that were put in place - not because of anything inherent in the virus itself.

We can’t know for certain though. Lots of other, similar, viruses are seasonal. It’s definitely possible the virus finds it harder to survive outside the body in warm, sunny weather. Plus - lockdown restrictions aside - the more time people spend outdoors the fewer opportunities the virus has to transmit. I’ve also heard theories that summer transmission is low because that’s when Vitamin D levels peak.

 

[lynchie]

I don’t agree with a lot of this but feck it, the last few pages have been one downer after another so this has to be worth a read, in the interest of balance.

There's definitely some fair points there - testing has increased, and is increasingly targeted at places where they know there are outbreaks, so the raw numbers might be misleading. At the same time, there are still several very significant outbreaks being found, so we don't have this thing under control by a long stretch.

On an unrelated note, my two boys have managed to bring me home some sort of (non-covid) bug within 4 days of being at school and nursery, the pricks.

 

[massi83]

I don’t agree with a lot of this but feck it, the last few pages have been one downer after another so this has to be worth a read, in the interest of balance.

The peak deaths were around 1.000 a day, so of course peak infections were around 100.000 a day. This has been known for months already.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The peak deaths were around 1.000 a day, so of course peak infections were around 100.000 a day. This has been known for months already.

We’ve know that initial cases were a huge underestimate but this is the first time I’ve seen a figure put on it. We still don’t have a very good grasp of the IFR, so any estimates made several months ago are likely to be a lot less accurate.

 

[Mickeza]

We can’t know for certain though. Lots of other, similar, viruses are seasonal. It’s definitely possible the virus finds it harder to survive outside the body in warm, sunny weather. Plus - lockdown restrictions aside - the more time people spend outdoors the fewer opportunities the virus has to transmit. I’ve also heard theories that summer transmission is low because that’s when Vitamin D levels peak.

Oh I think it’s undoubtedly true outside in the sun the risk of transmission is far lower than inside. I guess we don’t know if it’s the same outside in winter. I just don’t agree seasonality is why this second wave was predicted though. It was predicted because we weren’t going to stay locked down forever and as more sections of society were reopened cases were inevitably going to go up. It’ll actually be fascinating to see flu hospitalisations this winter with the social distancing/PH interventions that are going on. There’s definitely an argument that they could be far less.

 

[massi83]

We’ve know that initial cases were a huge underestimate but this is the first time I’ve seen a figure put on it. We still don’t have a very good grasp of the IFR, so any estimates made several months ago are likely to be a lot less accurate.

I would say there is enough data to put at 0.6-1.0% (let's say 90-95% confidence level). No reason to think it is over 1.5%. And lower it is more infections there were in March.

With western age profile obviously. Lower in younger populations.

 

[JPRouve]

I don’t agree with a lot of this but feck it, the last few pages have been one downer after another so this has to be worth a read, in the interest of balance.

It's probably true, for example France currently does 20 times more daily tests compared to March-April. It kinds of make comparisons difficult.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I would say there is enough data to put at 0.6-1.0% (let's say 90-95% confidence level). No reason to think it is over 1.5%. And lower it is more infections there were in March.

With western age profile obviously. Lower in younger populations.

Yeah, that sounds about right. The age profile thing is interesting. We keep reading about how much more young people are being infected now than in the initial months but it’s possible that the age profile is exactly the same, only younger/healthier people are getting tested now when they didn’t before.

 

[massi83]

Yeah, that sounds about right. The age profile thing is interesting. We keep reading about how much more young people are being infected now than in the initial months but it’s possible that the age profile is exactly the same, only younger/healthier people are getting tested now when they didn’t before.

No. The old are obviously shielding better, so age profile has changed for certain.

If you meant that more young people were infected in March than now, then that is also almost certain. But not proportionaly.

 

[redshaw]

UK 8 deaths and 2659 cases

 

[Pogue Mahone]

No. The old are obviously shielding better, so age profile has changed for certain.

If you meant that more young people were infected in March than now, then that is also almost certain. But not proportionaly.

I don’t think you can be certain about that.

Think about young people crowded into pubs, night clubs, huge sporting events, ski resorts etc etc. So many super-spreader opportunities which would have much more of an impact on young vs elderly. For all the shit they’re getting, young people have also changed their behaviour dramatically since February/March.

It’s definitely possible that the age profile of people getting infected is more or less the same now as it was then.

 

[massi83]

I don’t think you can be certain about that.

Think about young people crowded into pubs, night clubs, huge sporting events, ski resorts etc etc. So many super-spreader opportunities which would have much more of an impact on young vs elderly. For all the shit they’re getting, young people have also changed their behaviour dramatically since February/March.

It’s definitely possible that the age profile of people getting infected is more or less the same now as it was then.

I am 100% sure of that. I doubt I can convince you of that without wasting too much of my time. So no need to continue this further this time

 

[One Night Only]

Question about the "cases" ... Do they include 2nd and 3rd tests for the same person? As workplaces won't let people back without a negative test? So one person could test positive 6 times and that is actually only one case?

Or are they classing it as brand new cases only?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

More vaccine bad news (although not completely unexpected)

 

[prateik]

I dont think anyone was really pinning their hopes on the russian vaccine.

 

[Mickeza]

So the return to normal before Christmas Boris has been saying isn’t based on treatment/vaccines but on mass testing. Quick saliva tests to take place before you go to the theatre/watch the football/go to work to ensure you don’t have the virus and can thus act as normal. A quick, reliable test done on mass out in the community is a real game changer. Let’s hope this isn’t his usual bluster and something comes of it.

 

[Adamsk7]

A quick “pregnancy” style test that is reliable is the biggest game changer in all of this other than a vaccine or good therapeutic. Want to go to a wedding? Take a test and see if you’re safe. Want to go to a football match? Same. I actually think the test itself and the manufacture is the easy part - proving without doubt to whatever ground, facility, restaurant etc that you are negative is gonna be the hard part.

 

[lynchie]

So the return to normal before Christmas Boris has been saying isn’t based on treatment/vaccines but on mass testing. Quick saliva tests to take place before you go to the theatre/watch the football/go to work to ensure you don’t have the virus and can thus act as normal. A quick, reliable test done on mass out in the community is a real game changer. Let’s hope this isn’t his usual bluster and something comes of it.

There's a team in the states that have a test like this already. I'd have to find the reference, but I think the day shows it's basically as good as the swab test in the period when you're most infectious, around symptom onset.

 

[NinjaFletch]

I don’t think you can be certain about that.

Think about young people crowded into pubs, night clubs, huge sporting events, ski resorts etc etc. So many super-spreader opportunities which would have much more of an impact on young vs elderly. For all the shit they’re getting, young people have also changed their behaviour dramatically since February/March.

It’s definitely possible that the age profile of people getting infected is more or less the same now as it was then.

And also disproportionately do jobs which they're being forced back into that make them more vulnerable. Far easier to avoid the virus if you don't have to go to work in a restaurant/shop/factory/enviroment that employers claim is 'covid secure' because they're desperate to be open.

 

[gormless]

A quick “pregnancy” style test that is reliable is the biggest game changer in all of this other than a vaccine or good therapeutic. Want to go to a wedding? Take a test and see if you’re safe. Want to go to a football match? Same. I actually think the test itself and the manufacture is the easy part - proving without doubt to whatever ground, facility, restaurant etc that you are negative is gonna be the hard part.

My faith in the general public is so low I fully expect there would be people going out whilst knowing they’re positive

 

[hobbers]

Highly unlikely is a bit of an understatement re antibody titres.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

My faith in the general public is so low I fully expect there would be people going out whilst knowing they’re positive

100%. Although you’d think there must be a way to show proof of negative test to gain entry to crowded places. Maybe your test results get displayed on a smartphone app? Could even do it via tapping in, tapping out using NFC.

Kind of like the immunity passport that’s been talked about for ages but proof of not being infected right now, rather than proof of being infected in the past.

 

[Camilo]

I think you'd find a better home commenting on the Daily Mail website. I don't think anyone should listen to a poster who relentlessly called this just a flu and predicted it would all be over by March.

You were wrong and you remain wrong.

Just a difference of opinion. To be fair, it should have all been over - what exactly are we waiting for right now? Going in loops, doing the same things and expecting something different to happen. "Everyone go back to your lives (which we all have to do), OH NO! More cases! Everyone go back home". And repeat... Apparently this isn't the sane opinion, but I've yet to meet someone in person who doesn't agree. Maybe that's just Scotland? What's the plan? Fanny around indefinitely waiting for the cure?!

It's ok to have opinions that don't entirely align with the Guardian all the time.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

 

[Vidic_In_Moscow]

@Wibble?

 

[McGrathsipan]

There's definitely some fair points there - testing has increased, and is increasingly targeted at places where they know there are outbreaks, so the raw numbers might be misleading. At the same time, there are still several very significant outbreaks being found, so we don't have this thing under control by a long stretch.

On an unrelated note, my two boys have managed to bring me home some sort of (non-covid) bug within 4 days of being at school and nursery, the pricks.

What part of Dublin are you from ?

 

[McGrathsipan]

Clampers and Traffic wardens

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

@Wibble?

His dream job.

 

[golden_blunder]

There's definitely some fair points there - testing has increased, and is increasingly targeted at places where they know there are outbreaks, so the raw numbers might be misleading. At the same time, there are still several very significant outbreaks being found, so we don't have this thing under control by a long stretch.

On an unrelated note, my two boys have managed to bring me home some sort of (non-covid) bug within 4 days of being at school and nursery, the pricks.

Same here, less than a week in school and they are both laid up this week, sniffles & coughs.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

What happens if you live in a household of six? No visitors allowed at all? Is it me or do these new rules make no sense?

It is another clusterfeck.

 

[The Cat]

See the story in The S*n today? Reckons it is 100% proven that the disease was in the country before January after coroner's tests.

It's not clickbait usual shit the guy is named and the death cert is on there too.

 

[Pexbo]

See the story in The S*n today? Reckons it is 100% proven that the disease was in the country before January after coroner's tests.

It's not clickbait usual shit the guy is named and the death cert is on there too.

The thing I don’t get with this theory is why did it suddenly spike from March onwards and start killing thousands per day? Why wasn‘t it equally as contagious and have the same spread in January?

 

[The Cat]

The thing I don’t get with this theory is why did it suddenly spike from March onwards and start killing thousands per day? Why wasn‘t it equally as contagious and have the same spread in January?

They suggested albeit at a lesser extent that any illnesses didn't count as Covid and there was no testing in place whatsoever.

I remain unconvinced although I was sure I had it in February at one point everything matched. Friend back from Italy skiing trip and all the sympoms going.

 

[Pexbo]

They suggested albeit at a lesser extent that any illnesses didn't count as Covid and there was no testing in place whatsoever.

I remain unconvinced although I was sure I had it in February at one point everything matched. Friend back from Italy skiing trip and all the sympoms going.

Yeah definitely not short on anecdotal evidence. A mate from Uni came down with viral pneumonia in early January and took weeks and weeks to shift it.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

The little Hitlers will be all over these job applications.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

The thing I don’t get with this theory is why did it suddenly spike from March onwards and start killing thousands per day? Why wasn‘t it equally as contagious and have the same spread in January?

The fact that most of Europe peaked in deaths around 10th April has always had me convinced that much of the virus was already spreading around many cities unnoticed until everyone’s eyes turned on Italy.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

I will celebrate when selfish feckwits, who put the rest of us at risk, suddenly change their minds when it costs them a bit of cash.

There is alot of assumption in your post. But I'll say the same to you as I did to Manuarfa.

Pinning people down, physically or economically, is not an ethical way to convince them.