SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

2 weeks after the anti mask protest in Dublin the numbers have consistently gone up and there is a bigger one happening now, would they lockdown Dublin to at least stop these cnuts
 
Wibble said:
Proper lockdowns work. The evidence is unequivocal.
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Nonsense. From which countries ? Certainly not fecking Australia.
Those in Victoria have suffered the worst year of any society on the planet, because the first lockdown ended up being yet another example of simply kicking the can down the road.
Australia’s response to that failed lockdown.... give it another go.
Was at my mates Jess’ today, the stories from her pregnant mates in Melbourne sound utterly awful. Locked down for most of the year whilst buddies in NSW are living it up. Their mental states do not sound good. It’s an utter disaster for a state of 6.6 million people that you somehow think is a success or “working”.
You’d almost have to laugh at the idea that is lockdown “unequivocally working” if it wasn’t such a horrific tale for those in Victoria & especially in Melbourne City.

What other examples do you have? France? Belgium? Israel? Where exactly is this unequivocal proof? These are all proof it’s a load of crap.
Or is “the proof” that it eventually gets cases low? Is that showing they “work”?
So far they unequivocally prove they do nothing more than kick the can down the road. What works is huge levels of testing and extensive track and trace, and the more intrusive into personal privacy the better.

Plenty of proper European lockdowns were like putting a bandaid on a grenade wound.
 
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Fluctuation0161 said:
Wouldnt that still be man made?

Considering the massive advancements and investment in both genetic engineering and biological warfare by almost all developed countries. We are even looking at genetically modified viruses to treat cancer. It would be naive to rule out the option of Covid19 being created in a lab. It may have been accidentally released.
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Most of these discussions usually end up inconclusive but like you said, it's naive to rule out any possibility.
 
Hound Dog said:
Does this mean that the illness was judged not to be cause by the vaccine? The article says nothing about that.
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They are not going to say. We will never know.

I just hope the person is ok and will recover well. Don't know if you get any compensation for adverse response to a product being tested, but I just hope it works out for that person.
 
christy87 said:
2 weeks after the anti mask protest in Dublin the numbers have consistently gone up and there is a bigger one happening now, would they lockdown Dublin to at least stop these cnuts
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I went to Manchester today for the first time as a trip out with no real reason to be there (as opposed to the times I've been in and out just for work) and there was a protest group going down deansgate with banners and placards. 'end the lockdown' 'tell us the truth' etc. Only about 30 of them or so, but all of the same 'boomer' demographic and largely women. Couldn't resist shouting 'wankers' at them and told them to grow up. Morons.
 
Been advised no home testing kits are available and the closest station that has availability is 60 miles away (there are 5 stations within a 15 mile radius of me)

Another 3.5k cases today, I expect this will be up to 4.5k per day by the end of next week.
 
Hound Dog said:
Does this mean that the illness was judged not to be cause by the vaccine? The article says nothing about that.
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Not necessarily. It could have been a more moderate reaction but not significant enough to warrant stopping the trial. After reviewing the safety data, it may have been close to or within normal parameters, which is fortunate considering this is the frontrunner of all the vaccines currently in trials. The world will have breathed a collective sigh or relief at this news I'm sure.
 
decorativeed said:
I went to Manchester today for the first time as a trip out with no real reason to be there (as opposed to the times I've been in and out just for work) and there was a protest group going down deansgate with banners and placards. 'end the lockdown' 'tell us the truth' etc. Only about 30 of them or so, but all of the same 'boomer' demographic and largely women. Couldn't resist shouting 'wankers' at them and told them to grow up. Morons.
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Why shout at them? They have a right to peaceful protest. Just like how you have a right to a different opinion.
 
decorativeed said:
I went to Manchester today for the first time as a trip out with no real reason to be there (as opposed to the times I've been in and out just for work) and there was a protest group going down deansgate with banners and placards. 'end the lockdown' 'tell us the truth' etc. Only about 30 of them or so, but all of the same 'boomer' demographic and largely women. Couldn't resist shouting 'wankers' at them and told them to grow up. Morons.
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Very likely the same people who believe the earth is flat.
 
decorativeed said:
I went to Manchester today for the first time as a trip out with no real reason to be there (as opposed to the times I've been in and out just for work) and there was a protest group going down deansgate with banners and placards. 'end the lockdown' 'tell us the truth' etc. Only about 30 of them or so, but all of the same 'boomer' demographic and largely women. Couldn't resist shouting 'wankers' at them and told them to grow up. Morons.
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Good to see you took the moral high ground! Ha ha!
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
Good to see you took the moral high ground! Ha ha!
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I can't help myself sometimes to be honest. I know I probably should keep my mouth shut, but these people are the worst.

"End the lockdown"? We were all out in the middle of a city centre with all the shops and bars open! Lockdown ended ages ago. These people are apparently taking to the streets because they are being asked to wear masks inside (and even then nobody does anything if you don't want to, because it's not properly enforced).
 
Jazz said:
Why shout at them? They have a right to peaceful protest. Just like how you have a right to a different opinion.
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Because they are total idiots, who seemed to be deep into conspiracy territory judging by what they were shouting at everyone. I doubt they've ever protested against anything meaningful in their life, but ask them to do a little to protect others and they can't deal with it.

I got dogs abuse for going on an anti-racism march years ago, so I know how it feels, by the way.
 
Buster15 said:
I can't help thinking that the stupid eat out to help out has had a lot to do with the increase in covid cases.
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I think everything that involved people mingling has everything to do with it. Not just eat out, over sea holidays going to the pub, not wearing masks, overcrowding beaches, mass protests, also kids going to school this last week will help shoot it up. Less than a week and the kids brought back colds which both me and the Mrs have. Tests say it's not covid but guess what it got transmitted the same way. I'm fecking furious at the moment as I can't explain how careful me and my family have been and we caved at the idea of the kids going back to school for their own good.
 
decorativeed said:
Because they are total idiots, who seemed to be deep into conspiracy territory judging by what they were shouting at everyone. I doubt they've ever protested against anything meaningful in their life, but ask them to do a little to protect others and they can't deal with it.

I got dogs abuse for going on an anti-racism march years ago, so I know how it feels, by the way.
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Please don't label people conspiracy theorists and such. There are some people who ask reasonable questions but because it doesn't fit the popular narrative they are being accused of all sorts of unpleasant things. The government is constantly giving out contradictory information, so can you blame some people for being sceptical? Sorry it triggers me.

We shouldn't be divided. Just disagree and keep it moving.

I worry we go down a slippery slope where folks cannot have a different opinion from the current popular narrative. History shows this happens in bad situations. I'm just asking for us not to go in that direction. Live and let live.
 
Jazz said:
Please don't label people conspiracy theorists and such. There are some people who ask reasonable questions but because it doesn't fit the popular narrative they are being accused of all sorts of unpleasant things. The government is constantly giving out contradictory information, so can you blame some people for being sceptical? Sorry it triggers me.

We shouldn't be divided. Just disagree and keep it moving.

I worry we go down a slippery slope where folks cannot have a different opinion from the current popular narrative. History shows this happens in bad situations. I'm just asking for us not to go in that direction. Live and let live.
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I'm sorry, but their signs were saying we are being lied to by a tyrannical government and covid isn't real. Those are 100% conspiracy theories. They were shouting similar stuff about 'sheeple'.

I'm all for differences of opinions, but not differences of facts. And I'm not one for defending this shambles of a government and its shoddy response to the pandemic.
 
Jazz said:
Please don't label people conspiracy theorists and such. There are some people who ask reasonable questions but because it doesn't fit the popular narrative they are being accused of all sorts of unpleasant things. The government is constantly giving out contradictory information, so can you blame some people for being sceptical? Sorry it triggers me.

We shouldn't be divided. Just disagree and keep it moving.

I worry we go down a slippery slope where folks cannot have a different opinion from the current popular narrative. History shows this happens in bad situations. I'm just asking for us not to go in that direction. Live and let live.
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There are people who ask completely bonkers questions and completely ignore actual data, they are completely unhinged. Sorry but there are actual conspiracy theorists who are fecking morons.
Please dont tell me that I cant refer to these feckwits as conspiracy theorists, they arent reasonable.
 
decorativeed said:
I went to Manchester today for the first time as a trip out with no real reason to be there (as opposed to the times I've been in and out just for work) and there was a protest group going down deansgate with banners and placards. 'end the lockdown' 'tell us the truth' etc. Only about 30 of them or so, but all of the same 'boomer' demographic and largely women. Couldn't resist shouting 'wankers' at them and told them to grow up. Morons.
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They are all organised by right wing nut jobs here
Jazz said:
Please don't label people conspiracy theorists and such. There are some people who ask reasonable questions but because it doesn't fit the popular narrative they are being accused of all sorts of unpleasant things. The government is constantly giving out contradictory information, so can you blame some people for being sceptical? Sorry it triggers me.

We shouldn't be divided. Just disagree and keep it moving.

I worry we go down a slippery slope where folks cannot have a different opinion from the current popular narrative. History shows this happens in bad situations. I'm just asking for us not to go in that direction. Live and let live.
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but the groups that organise these are using the same tactics as trump to divide people, by claiming mainstream news is fake news and here they are using the Irish flag like it’s there symbol, all these groups want to do is create hate and if you don’t stand up to them guess what happens.
 
Jazz said:
Please don't label people conspiracy theorists and such. There are some people who ask reasonable questions but because it doesn't fit the popular narrative they are being accused of all sorts of unpleasant things. The government is constantly giving out contradictory information, so can you blame some people for being sceptical? Sorry it triggers me.

We shouldn't be divided. Just disagree and keep it moving.

I worry we go down a slippery slope where folks cannot have a different opinion from the current popular narrative. History shows this happens in bad situations. I'm just asking for us not to go in that direction. Live and let live.
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Society has never tolerated idiotic and intolerant opinions more than the last few years. It's not a positive development.
 
Smores said:
Society has never tolerated idiotic and intolerant opinions more than the last few years. It's not a positive development.
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Agreed. Here is an earlier video of these idiots. A lot fewer out today, mind.


Edit: apologies if this breaks the no tin foil hat silliness policy. I'm not siding with these antivaxing wallies.
 
Tony Babangida said:
Why are people in NSW and other states able to live normal lives? Because their lockdowns worked.
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Why are people in South Korea living normal lives? or Taiwan, or Germany?
Why aren’t people in France, Belgium, Israel if “proper lockdowns” work ”unequivocally”.
Because they don’t, obviously.

What has kept NSW, Western Australia, Taiwan, South Korea, Germany living “normal lives” is widespread testing and track/trace ability, not lockdown.

“unequivocally” doesn’t mean it worked well in 5 places but not 5 others.
The whole point is that even the toughest lockdowns can and have failed to do nothing more than kick the can down the road, just like in Australia, France, Israel etc.

I’ll repeat, calling the year Victorians have had “working” or an “unequivocal success” is utter madness. It’s been anything but, an absolute horror year that will have lasting negative effects on those unfortunate enough to live there.
 
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Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Why are people in South Korea living normal lives? or Taiwan, or Germany?
Why aren’t people in France, Belgium, Israel if “proper lockdowns” work ”unequivocally”.
Because they don’t, obviously.

“unequivocally” doesn’t mean it worked well in 5 places but not 5 others.

I’ll repeat, calling the year Victorians have had “working” or an “unequivocal success” is utter madness. It’s been anything but, an absolute horror year that will have lasting negative effects.
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I don’t think you can point to Australia as an example of lockdowns not working when in most of the country it has worked. At least for now.

I would argue that the consequences of Victoria not having a second lockdown, resulting in deaths could have been more “horrific” than the lockdown. We won’t find out because the cases have dropped from >700/day to <50/day.

As a measure to stop hospitals getting overloaded, and reducing the rate of infection to a level where you can manage it, lockdowns work. Some countries have been able to manage this without lockdown, but that is not possible everywhere.

As a long term measure for keeping the virus in check, they can only work if you have strict border quarantine. Which clearly Europe doesn’t and Victoria didn’t. Hopefully Vic has learnt from this and it won’t happen again.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
And now that it’s been made illegal do you think anyone will be in public venues to allow “controllable contact”? Or do you think that actually encourages the opposite, people inside each other’s houses meeting each other in the worst known location for driving a virus like this?
Imbeciles!
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Perhaps I explained myself badly. I meant that public venues involve controlled distancing/COVID secure measures, unlike peoples' houses or large mass gatherings.

While some people at home, and some businesses, will break their respective rules the majority will comply which is what the government wants.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
Public venues such as restaurants and pubs are in an enclosed space. Shared air, suspended particles. COVID19 does not care if it is in a house or a pub. Hell, pubs are just a party where everyone is paying VAT. Very little is controlled. It is purely an economic decision and not a scientific one. It is actually safer outside in people's gardens than inside a pub restaurant or cinema.

If you value the economy over health then don't bother with the pretence and just go for full herd immunity. This illogical "worst of both worlds" approach the government has taken with does not make sense. It is actually counter productive because the population see the holes in the logic and pay less attention to the guidance.
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You're tarring all businesses with the same brush in my opinion. From what I have seen the majority of people in private homes, and the majority of businesses, follow the rules.

Is there a BEST of both worlds in this pandemic?

Anyway, what would you do and, if it's going to cost the country money, who will pay for it?

Personally, I am leaning towards herd immunity, with vulnerable people self isolating. If the death rate doesn't go significantly higher in 2-3 weeks amd.the infection rate continues to grow, I will be all for it.
 
ManUArfa said:
Personally, I am leaning towards herd immunity, with vulnerable people self isolating. If the death rate doesn't go significantly higher in 2-3 weeks amd.the infection rate continues to grow, I will be all for it.
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You do realise that would result in nearly 200,000 deaths in the UK alone if achieved before we get a vaccine and we can get the death rate down to 0.5% and keep it there when hospitals are overwhelmed and we are lucky and HIT is only 60%? You could well be looking at fsr more if the HIT is higher, hospitals get overwhelmed and winter arrives.
 
Wibble said:
You do realise that would result in nearly 200,000 deaths in the UK alone if achieved before we get a vaccine and we can get the death rate down to 0.5% and keep it there when hospitals are overwhelmed and we are lucky and HIT is only 60%? You could well be looking at fsr more if the HIT is higher, hospitals get overwhelmed and winter arrives.
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Umm, this sounds wrong? If the vulnerable are isolating and not becoming part of the herd the death rate surely wouldn't be as high? Or have you took that into account and are saying 1/200 healthy young people die from covid? I don't know the stats, but I thought the young/healthy demographic had an absolutely tiny death rate?

Edit: just had a check and UK morality rate is at around 12%? Some of that is to do with the way we initially reported deaths though. Studies seem to think it is 3-4%. So feck knows what I was babbling about.

I said it early on, the lockdown should have been for vulnerable people / people who were worried. Those that weren't worried should have been able to carry on like normal and catch it to achieve herd immunity quicker. Easier said that done though, and not guaranteed to work as we don't really know about reinfection yet.

I personally wouldn't have minded catching it, isolating for 14 days then going about business as usual, it in my mind is a risk I'd be willing to take, my own dumb risk but my own decision too. However I've been pretty good regarding social distancing and all that stuff, hasn't been difficult if I'm honest, just a ball ache shopping and the opening times / restrictions in certain places.

Slightly different topic, I seen covid tests are picking up the dead virus, is there a chance they are also picking up our normal winter flu too or is that highly unlikely?
 
One Night Only said:
Umm, this sounds wrong? If the vulnerable are isolating and not becoming part of the herd the death rate surely wouldn't be as high? Or have you took that into account and are saying 1/200 healthy young people die from covid? I don't know the stats, but I thought the young/healthy demographic had an absolutely tiny death rate?

Edit: just had a check and UK morality rate is at around 12%? Some of that is to do with the way we initially reported deaths though. Studies seem to think it is 3-4%. So feck knows what I was babbling about.

I said it early on, the lockdown should have been for vulnerable people / people who were worried. Those that weren't worried should have been able to carry on like normal and catch it to achieve herd immunity quicker. Easier said that done though, and not guaranteed to work as we don't really know about reinfection yet.

I personally wouldn't have minded catching it, isolating for 14 days then going about business as usual, it in my mind is a risk I'd be willing to take, my own dumb risk but my own decision too. However I've been pretty good regarding social distancing and all that stuff, hasn't been difficult if I'm honest, just a ball ache shopping and the opening times / restrictions in certain places.

Slightly different topic, I seen covid tests are picking up the dead virus, is there a chance they are also picking up our normal winter flu too or is that highly unlikely?
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I was using a very low overall mortality overall of 0.5% (which in reality assumes a high degree of isolation for vulnerabke groups) and a very low HIT (Herd Immunity Threshold) of 60%.

66,500,000 (UK population) x 0.6 (HIT) x 0.005 (fatality rate)= 199,500 deaths

If those assumptions are wrong then you could be looking at a millon deaths with high end estimates of 80% for HIT and 2% fatality rate.

SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus so I'd assume any test wouldn't detect a different virus like influenza.

IMO the only time herd immunity should be considered is if a) it is achieved through vaccination or b) all of the vaccines being developed fail and we have no choice.
 
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My 84 year old uncle(dads brother) made it home today after two months in the hospital and rehab. He lost a lung to cancer five years ago. fecking amazed he pulled through.
 
Wibble said:
I was using a very low overall mortality overall of 0.5% (which in reality assumes a high degree of isolation for vulnerabke groups) and a very low HIT (Herd Immunity Threshold) of 60%.

66,500,000 (UK population) x 0.6 (HIT) x 0.005 (fatality rate)= 199,500 deaths

If those assumptions are wrong then you could be looking at a millon deaths with high end estimates of 80% for HIT and 2% fatality rate.

SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus so I'd assume any test wouldn't detect a different virus like influenza.

IMO the only time herd immunity should be considered is if a) it is achieved through vaccination or b) all of the vaccines being developed fail and we have no choice.
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Cheers
 
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Wibble said:
I was using a very low overall mortality overall of 0.5% (which in reality assumes a high degree of isolation for vulnerabke groups) and a very low HIT (Herd Immunity Threshold) of 60%.

66,500,000 (UK population) x 0.6 (HIT) x 0.05 (fatality rate)= 199,500 deaths

If those assumptions are wrong then you could be looking at a millon deaths with high end estimates of 80% for HIT and 2% fatality rate.

SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus so I'd assume any test wouldn't detect a different virus like influenza.

IMO the only time herd immunity should be considered is if a) it is achieved through vaccination or b) all of the vaccines being developed fail and we have no choice.
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0.5% is 0.005.
 
peridigm said:
My 84 year old uncle(dads brother) made it home today after two months in the hospital and rehab. He lost a lung to cancer five years ago. fecking amazed he pulled through.
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Great to hear. We seem to be making gains in treatnent although 1 lung and his age would have made the odds against recovery. I hope he makes a full recovery.
 
Wibble said:
I was using a very low overall mortality overall of 0.5% (which in reality assumes a high degree of isolation for vulnerabke groups) and a very low HIT (Herd Immunity Threshold) of 60%.

66,500,000 (UK population) x 0.6 (HIT) x 0.05 (fatality rate)= 199,500 deaths

If those assumptions are wrong then you could be looking at a millon deaths with high end estimates of 80% for HIT and 2% fatality rate.

SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus so I'd assume any test wouldn't detect a different virus like influenza.

IMO the only time herd immunity should be considered is if a) it is achieved through vaccination or b) all of the vaccines being developed fail and we have no choice.
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The last I'd heard 2541 people under 60 had died. Do we really think only half a million have been infected in that age group?

As a bit of fag packet Maths around 75% of the UK population fall into the 0 - 59 age bracket and assuming 2.7m people are estimated to have had the virus; that would mean around 2m 0-59 year olds have had the virus with 2541 dying (a rate of just over 0.001, rather than 0.005).

You could take it one step further and say only 307 people aged 0-59 with no preexisting conditions have died.

The challenge would be stopping the spread hitting the vulnerable of course.
 
Its going to be interesting when really clear stats appear about the ongoing health issues some will have from this disease and how much impact it has on their lives. So much focus on deaths etc but the other health problems of this virus are all happening too.
 
finneh said:
The last I'd heard 2541 people under 60 had died. Do we really think only half a million have been infected in that age group?

As a bit of fag packet Maths around 75% of the UK population fall into the 0 - 59 age bracket and assuming 2.7m people are estimated to have had the virus; that would mean around 2m 0-59 year olds have had the virus with 2541 dying (a rate of just over 0.001, rather than 0.005).

You could take it one step further and say only 307 people aged 0-59 with no preexisting conditions have died.

The challenge would be stopping the spread hitting the vulnerable of course.
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But you can't exclude parts of the population just because they die more often. Vulnerable groups have already been protected and over 40,000 have died. The chances of keeping the overall death rate at 0.5%, if we went for herd immunity, is small and once medical facilities are overwhelmed I think it likely the death rate would climb much higher.
 
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