SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Jazz]

My partner has got some symptoms including fever and it's a complete ball ache just to try to get a test organised. The only option available is today at 16.30 and it's a ridiculous 140 mile trip (annoying as there's a testing site just across from us) so obviously wouldn't make it even if we left immediately. After today it's booked for the foreseeable, at least according to the website. All of the home tests are out of stock.

I kinda think we need to have people tested who have symptoms. I've seen heathy folks getting tested when we have limitations on the amount of tests available. Now your partner who needs the test, can't get one easily.

Things are just all over the place.

 

[djembatheking]

I kinda think we need to have people tested who have symptoms. I've seen heathy folks getting tested when we have limitations on the amount of tests available. Now your partner who needs the test, can't get one easily.

Things are just all over the place.

Yep, and now kids are back in school and more likely to need testing there needs to be testing stations where kids can be swabbed and tested correctly . If anyone has tried swabbing a 4 year old and an 8 year old and getting an accurate test they will know what I mean.

 

[fergosaurus]

@Jazz @djembatheking

Yeah, it's a bit of a shambles to put it mildly. I eventually got through to someone on the helpline and even they didn't sound arsed. I was told there have been problems with the website and to keep checking.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

My partner has got some symptoms including fever and it's a complete ball ache just to try to get a test organised. The only option available is today at 16.30 and it's a ridiculous 140 mile trip (annoying as there's a testing site just across from us) so obviously wouldn't make it even if we left immediately. After today it's booked for the foreseeable, at least according to the website. All of the home tests are out of stock.

And this is why assuming everything is ok until hospitalisation numbers take off is only seeing half the picture. Long before hospitals get overwhelmed the test and trace systems will max out. And once that happens you’re back where we were in March/April. Massively underestimating the true case-load, while failing to track and isolate the majority of individual cases. We all know what happens next...

 

[SnowRoll]

Not sure if posted here before, but there are increasing studies that point to vitamin D as an important factor.
This could also explain covid prevalence in the BAME communities, as they produce less vitamin D, compared to others.

 

[lynchie]

My partner has got some symptoms including fever and it's a complete ball ache just to try to get a test organised. The only option available is today at 16.30 and it's a ridiculous 140 mile trip (annoying as there's a testing site just across from us) so obviously wouldn't make it even if we left immediately. After today it's booked for the foreseeable, at least according to the website. All of the home tests are out of stock.

Try calling up just after 8. Around here, that's when they release new appointments.

 

[fergosaurus]

And this is why assuming everything is ok until hospitalisation numbers take off is only seeing half the picture. Long before hospitals get overwhelmed the test and trace systems will max out. And once that happens you’re back where we were in March/April. Massively underestimating the true case-load, while failing to track and isolate the majority of individual cases. We all know what happens next...

Yep, the WHO have advised this from the beginning but for some reason the government think they know better.

Try calling up just after 8. Around here, that's when they release new appointments.

Will do, thanks for the tip!

 

[Nytram Shakes]

Scary times, really don't know how this is gonna pan out. Unlike in march when there was basically a national outcry demanding a lockdown that isn't present now. There is also a very strong case that the country can't financially afford another lockdown. Plus a lockdown seems to only be a temporary solution anyway as soon as you open in it starts to come back.

Its interesting that Sweeden seems to now be out of the worst of it and haven't really locked down at all, maybe that was the way forward, though arguably population density and the fact the country has a tax rate that is caple of supporting it's infrastructure(ie health care) may be also key factors.

I suspect it's going to be a dark winter, were lots of people die and many more lose their jobs homes and health because of it. During which everybody paddies screams and blames each other and no one takes any responsibility or offers any real practical solutions other than its all *insert scape goat of the week* fault and the government needs to give *insert victim of the week* more money but only if it doesnt effect their financial situation.

Its going to be a sad scary time.

 

[fergosaurus]

Try calling up just after 8. Around here, that's when they release new appointments.

Just got one booked for tomorrow morning within a reasonable distance. Cheers.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

 

[Vidyoyo]

I'm not so sure in truth. The studies I've seen show UK residents were and are one of the most fearful of the virus in Europe. We were heavily pro lockdown and heavily pro authoritarian restrictions to our civil liberties (strange given our history). This isn't to say that there wouldn't be different outcomes of course; the UK would have always had a significantly higher death toll than the likes of NZ.

If that fear were harnessed not for a very short term lockdown that fatigued the populace greatly over a 12 week period and merely kicked the can down the road; but was harnessed for a longer term period (say 12 months) of more subtle but important restrictions I think we'd be in a better situation. Asking someone to not see their family for 12 weeks and then not to go within 2 metres of them for 9 months is totally different than asking them to not go within 2 metres for 12 months. I've seen many people hug their friends and family just out of relief having not seen them for so long (bizarrely they'd be unlikely to hug them when seeing them weekly).

Coming out of a 3 month lockdown was always going to cause such a "relief" that cases are bound to spike. Whereas you look at the countries that either had no lockdown (Sweden) or a limited and not so draconian lockdown (other Nordic countries, Germany etc) and their population are far more compliant.

Obviously combining these subtle but more long term changes with a working track and trace system is imperative.

Good observation. I live near Leicester and saw no changes when the extended restrictions were brought into place. I think we were so fatigued by that point that nobody had the mental energy to comply.

Even now, I'm not sure what apparently those extended restrictions meant. Shops were open. Cafes and pubs were open. Parks were packed on sunny days.

Edit: Okay one. Police were apparently more vigilant and stopped some people leaving for non-emergency reasons.

 

[finneh]

Full lock down was around 6/7 weeks. Not 12. We saw people packing beaches straight after, and I don’t think for a second that would have been different if we hadn’t had a lock down.

I haven’t got any statistics to back it up, but I would bet that all the countries you listed, have a population that is far more willing to listen to their government, or scientific advice. So regardless of the measures taken, they would have largely been ignored here.

In terms of the deaths specifically, I fully believe it has more to do with how the government handled things like care homes, testing, messaging, rather than the 7 week lock down.

I guess it depends on what you define as a lockdown. Being locked in your own house and being arrested for having two walks in a day is one metric (for me that's the kind of metric we use for North Korean levels of despotism). The laws that governed interactions throughout May and into June though for me were worse than anything I thought I'd ever experience in a democratic and free society (albeit less restrictive than April)

They were the kind of restrictions that when lifted caused even the most cautious and fearful people I know to ensure they acted as "socially" as possible within the constraints of the law. Garden parties or BBQ's that would normally have 6-8 people having a couple of beers and driving home ended up with 20+ people who after a few drinks and seeing people they hadn't seen in months definitely did not socially distance.

Don't get me wrong I fully agree the government has cocked things up cataclysmically which has been the real issue in terms of deaths; but the UK populace was exceptionally compliant for a fair few months and that was something that needed to be harnessed as best as possible. If the same level of fear and compliancy were channeled into mask wearing, social distancing and cautious socialising I think we'd be in a similar position to Germany and Sweden; rather than heading towards France and Spain whose populace presumably acted like ours. I certainly don't think Swedes have an inherent character trait making them "Covid smart" where's French, Spanish and British people are "Covid dumb"; it's definitely more nuanced.

We were told back in March when we actually had a coherent strategy the key was to protect the NHS and ensure it wasn't overwhelmed. Unfortunately our weak government abandoned that strategy after a few negative headlines (and stupidity in failing to protect the vulnerable).

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

I’m not really sure why we need this regurgitated argument every 10 pages or so.

I agree,can't they just start another thread. The majority of us come to this thread to read about covid-19, not Sweden v the rest of the world.

Not being funny but which posts are you both banging on about here @Dan_F & @jymufc20?

No-one has debated that subject you mention above today or even this week. Did Wibs bring that country you mention up randomly yet again? yes, but no-one even responded to it as it was so random and had nothing with anything being debated on here today.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

This comment of yours "It’s so clear all countries couldn’t react in the same way, due to so many variables within each one."

I think every single sane person in the thread knows this. Countries can only plan for their own unique situations. It’s mentioned and agreed upon almost daily.
NZ for example had a unique opportunity for eradication and took it, other countries with extremely low numbers such as Norway don’t have that possibility as they are simply too connected and dependent on Europe.

 

[Berbaclass]

They have 4K cases a day too. Wonder how many it would take for the UK to do the same. If they even would at all.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

In countries with significant outbreaks strict lockdown was the quickest way to get cases down, which helped save lives in the short term. Obviously, it’s getting stage 2 right that is the key to long term success but to describe stage 1 as “kicking the can down the road” is spectacularly missing the point.

@finneh is on to something here though regarding my point, if you lockdown hard and Nanny state too hard, you aren’t tackling the problem and are kicking the can down the road.

It appears to me the countries in Europe doing best are the ones that have placed trust in the citizens to follow guidelines. The harsher the European lockdown, the quicker the rise in cases it appears, so far at least.
Why is this? I like finneh don’t believe it’s because Germans or Finns are Covid-smart, I think it’s in part because of the trust between citizens and the state.

My argument with Wibs wasn’t that lockdowns haven’t worked or are always kicking the can down the road, for some countries they have worked excellent. What is not true is that they are an unequivocal success or “work unequivocally”, and my argument is that if Victoria 2020 is unequivocal proof of lockdown working... feck me sideways.
Victoria was about as successful as Israel, which was so successful the entire country is already going for round 2.

 

[Dan_F]

I guess it depends on what you define as a lockdown. Being locked in your own house and being arrested for having two walks in a day is one metric (for me that's the kind of metric we use for North Korean levels of despotism). The laws that governed interactions throughout May and into June though for me were worse than anything I thought I'd ever experience in a democratic and free society (albeit less restrictive than April)

They were the kind of restrictions that when lifted caused even the most cautious and fearful people I know to ensure they acted as "socially" as possible within the constraints of the law. Garden parties or BBQ's that would normally have 6-8 people having a couple of beers and driving home ended up with 20+ people who after a few drinks and seeing people they hadn't seen in months definitely did not socially distance.

Don't get me wrong I fully agree the government has cocked things up cataclysmically which has been the real issue in terms of deaths; but the UK populace was exceptionally compliant for a fair few months and that was something that needed to be harnessed as best as possible. If the same level of fear and compliancy were channeled into mask wearing, social distancing and cautious socialising I think we'd be in a similar position to Germany and Sweden; rather than heading towards France and Spain whose populace presumably acted like ours. I certainly don't think Swedes have an inherent character trait making them "Covid smart" where's French, Spanish and British people are "Covid dumb"; it's definitely more nuanced.

Being arrested for having two walks? Behave. It was never like that. Germany had strict rules on social interactions, so why is it a problem that we had them in the period after the full lock down?

Do you honestly think that if we didn’t lock down, people would suddenly all wear masks and not meet up in huge groups. We’re America lite, you only need to look at our politics in the last 4 years to see that.

Not being funny but which posts are you both banging on about here @Dan_F & @jymufc20?

No-one has debated that subject you mention above today or even this week. Did Wibs bring that country you mention up randomly yet again? yes, but no-one even responded to it as it was so random and had nothing with anything being debated on here today.

Huh. It was being discussed literally just above my post (including by you) and was at the top of the last page when I came to the thread.

 

[Vidyoyo]

Being arrested for having two walks? Behave. It was never like that. Germany had strict rules on social interactions, so why is it a problem that we had them in the period after the full lock down?

Do you honestly think that if we didn’t lock down, people would suddenly all wear masks and not meet up in huge groups. We’re America lite, you only need to look at our politics in the last 4 years to see that.



Huh. It was being discussed literally just above my post (including by you) and was at the top of the last page when I came to the thread.

It certainly was strict, including fixed-penalty notices for not adhering to restrictions on being outside. The woman on the park bench and her bullshit 'exercising mentally' line springs to mind.

 

[groovyalbert]

They have 4K cases a day too. Wonder how many it would take for the UK to do the same. If they even would at all.

To be fair, Israel have a population of 8m. 4k cases a day there is proportionality miles higher than that number in the UK. Still alarming, whatever angle one takes.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Huh. It was being discussed literally just above my post (including by you) and was at the top of the last page when I came to the thread.

What? I haven’t discussed that country all week.
I’m careful not to as I think reports of their current “success” are as equally ridiculous now as the report of their “failure” back in May & June.
We won’t know anything about successes until mid next year, and considering how important track and trace and widespread testing is proving to be, it’s seems likely the countries who did this best will remain best and the shit ones will remain worst.

I certainly wasn’t discussing them just above your post. Quote me if I was via PM so as not to spam the thread, quote me the conversation and you’ll find it didn’t exist bar in your own head. You’ll see Wibs randomly mentioned them in a post when no fecker was talking about them and no fecker responded about them. Wibs did the same last week & randomly tried making it about them when we were discussing just how well no lockdown South Korea, Taiwan & Vietnam have done.
I know you’re all bored of hearing about them, as I am myself, so that’s why I steer clear whenever I can and simply ignore posts like Wibs today so as to save you all hearing the same boring shite from me.

 

[Dan_F]

What? I haven’t discussed that country all week.
I’m careful not to as I think reports of their current “success” are as equally ridiculous now as the report of their “failure” back in May & June.
We won’t know anything about successes until mid next year, and considering how important track and trace and widespread testing is proving to be, it’s seems likely the countries who did this best will remain best and the shit ones will remain worst.

I certainly wasn’t discussing them just above your post. Quote me if I was via PM so as not to spam the thread, quote me the conversation and you’ll find it didn’t exist bar in your own head. You’ll see Wibs randomly mentioned them in a post when no fecker was talking about them and no fecker responded about them.

The discussion you were involved in was clearly about the benefits of having a lock down, vs not having a lock down, which is what my original post was about. You’re being over sensitive, as my original post was not specifically about Sweden. I used the term “Sweden style response” because that’s an easy way of describing the opposite response of what the UK did.

 

[Bullhitter]

Agreed and they are frequent and often long term.

You do not know this and should not state it as fact. I happen to disagree with a large portion of your posts and viewpoints which is fine, opinions are always going to be split in these circumstances but you have a really bad habit of posting in a very absolute tone and with way too much conviction on matters where there is far from any certainty and more often than not have zero wiggle room from your original stance in any discussion.

There are no doubt readers in here who would see posts like this in such an unequivocal tone going largely unchallenged (as i think some posters have already come to the same conclusions as me and have now chosen not to waste time even engaging in debate or discussion) and if they were to take them as gospel that would be very unfortunate.

You are clearly an intelligent guy but for how active you are in here and simply for the fact that you are going to be viewed as intelligent combined with your tone it is highly irresponsible to state some of the things you do in the manner that you do at times.

 

[Wibble]

You do not know this and should not state it as fact. I happen to disagree with a large portion of your posts and viewpoints which is fine, opinions are always going to be split in these circumstances but you have a really bad habit of posting in a very absolute tone and with way too much conviction on matters where there is far from any certainty and more often than not have zero wiggle room from your original stance in any discussion.

There are no doubt readers in here who would see posts like this in such an unequivocal tone going largely unchallenged (as i think some posters have already come to the same conclusions as me and have now chosen not to waste time even engaging in debate or discussion) and if they were to take them as gospel that would be very unfortunate.

You are clearly an intelligent guy but for how active you are in here and simply for the fact that you are going to be viewed as intelligent combined with your tone it is highly irresponsible to state some of the things you do in the manner that you do at times.

To ignore the long term effect experienced by those who survive is irresponsible. Death rate is far from the only consideration.

The mayo clinic must also be irresponsible
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases...th/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351

The lancet must also be as they openly acknowledge the effects and want more research to better understand the issue - which is of course a great idea. Not fully knowing something doesn't mean it doesn't exist so you can pretend that it isn't a problem.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30701-5/fulltext

Easy reading versions of this sort of info are all over the place as well.
https://hmri.org.au/news-article/what-are-long-term-symptoms-covid-19
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ovid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists

 

[Ludens the Red]

To ignore the long term effect experienced by those who survive is irresponsible. Death rate is far from the only consideration.

The mayo clinic must also be irresponsible
https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases...th/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351

The lancet must also be as they openly acknowledge the effects and want more research to better understand the issue - which is of course a great idea. Not fully knowing something doesn't mean it doesn't exist so you can pretend that it isn't a problem.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30701-5/fulltext

Easy reading versions of this sort of info are all over the place as well.
https://hmri.org.au/news-article/what-are-long-term-symptoms-covid-19
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...ovid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists

Ironically the article you posted says this

Because it's difficult to predict long-term outcomes from the new COVID-19 virus, scientists are looking at the long-term effects seen in related viruses, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

And this....

Much is still unknown about how COVID-19 will affect people over time. However, researchers recommend that doctors closely monitor people who have had COVID-19 to see how their organs are functioning after recovery.

I think @Bullhitter is just making a point about not speaking in absolutes which you maybe are sometimes guilty of.

 

[Carolina Red]

South Carolina has had 1 teacher, 1 coach, and 1 bus driver die of Covid this week. We’ve been back in school 3 weeks.

 

[Tony Babangida]

I thought this was a good and short summary from JAMA of what we know and don't know about immunity to SARS-CoV-2 so far:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2770758

 

[utdalltheway]

Was talking today to a buddy of mine back in northern Virginia.
His daughter (a 1st year) was away at college and now the students have been sent home, having only been there a few weeks.
She got COVID there too and had to quarantine. He was saying her symptoms (fever, etc) only lasted a day or so, so good for her. He’s picking her up tomorrow to bring her back home.
That’s actually the 1st person I know personally to have gotten COVID.

 

[iKnowNothing]

The US is at a total of 6,708,458 cases. India is at 4,845,003 cases and is adding about 90k cases per day. India is very likely to overtake the US very soon.

 

[Tony Babangida]

Was talking today to a buddy of mine back in northern Virginia.
His daughter (a 1st year) was away at college and now the students have been sent home, having only been there a few weeks.
She got COVID there too and had to quarantine. He was saying her symptoms (fever, etc) only lasted a day or so, so good for her. He’s picking her up tomorrow to bring her back home.
That’s actually the 1st person I know personally to have gotten COVID.

Sorry to hear that. Tell your friend to be careful, she could still transmit (depending on how long she quarantined).

Generally, it seems like a bad idea for colleges to open up, have students come from around the country, get infected, and then send them home to their parents. Would it not be better to keep them there?

 

[utdalltheway]

It’s disappointing all around as the kids (mine included) were all looking forward to college life.
In that girls case she got COVID about 2 weeks ago, so has done 2 weeks isolation.

She should be ok now, right, not still contagious?
As to the colleges: there’s so much money involved I think that was driving their decisions.
A neighbour down the road sent their son off to Notre Dame in Indiana and that place had a ton of cases too. I haven’t seen them to ask them how he is.

 

[finneh]

Being arrested for having two walks? Behave. It was never like that. Germany had strict rules on social interactions, so why is it a problem that we had them in the period after the full lock down?

Do you honestly think that if we didn’t lock down, people would suddenly all wear masks and not meet up in huge groups. We’re America lite, you only need to look at our politics in the last 4 years to see that.

You literally weren't allowed to go for two walks in a day. I remember it well because my wife went for a morning walk on a few occasions and then we couldn't go for a walk in the evening after work. It was the biggest attack on our civil liberties in the last 70 years (presumably if we'd been "caught" walking twice we'd have been asked to go home, had we refused we'd have been arrested as that woman was for sitting down in the park).

If we didn't lock down I think we would have seen a slightly higher peak and a slightly longer tail but I don't believe we'd see what appears to be an inevitable second wave.

Again I disagree that Germans and Scandinavians are bastians of responsibility that can be trusted with their own freedoms whereas English, Scottish and Welsh (plus French, Spanish, Portuguese, Croatian etc) are essentially imbeciles who require a Nanny state. Often when you treat people like children they act like children (ie after being locked in their house for several weeks, being told they can't interact outside even from several metres away with some friends and not trusting a couple to responsibility have a pint in a beer garden; you find people having 25 man drunken BBQ's where social distancing is disregarded).

Either way if cases are rising at this level before Winter has hit and they continue to rise into Winter surely that in itself is going to be proof the first lockdown and subsequent policies have failed?

 

[Tony Babangida]

It’s disappointing all around as the kids (mine included) were all looking forward to college life.
In that girls case she got COVID about 2 weeks ago, so has done 2 weeks isolation.

She should be ok now, right, not still contagious?
As to the colleges: there’s so much money involved I think that was driving their decisions.
A neighbour down the road sent their son off to Notre Dame in Indiana and that place had a ton of cases too. I haven’t seen them to ask them how he is.

Yeah two weeks isolation should be fine. I might want to see a negative test just to be sure but I'm not a doctor and that might be overkill! Also depends on your friends situation, if they are vulnerable, or directly caring for someone vulnerable it may be sensible to be more cautious.

My sister lost her job back in March, so she needed to move back home (from London) with my parents (up North), she mentioned to me that she had a sore throat, so I told her to stay in an Airbnb for a week. My Dad thought I was being stupidly cautious. Anyway she developed a fever and cough, she was ill for two weeks and ended up staying in isolation for almost 4 weeks. She was never able to get a test so we still don't know if she actually had it, but given the timing and the symptoms it seems likely. I am glad I insisted as my parents are both in their 60s and care for my Grandma who is in her 90s.

I know a lot of US colleges had planned to use extensive testing to try and prevent outbreaks, not sure how that is going. I hope it might work, as you say its really sad that people have to miss out on what should be a really exciting time. Remote learning is definitely not the same experience.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

The discussion you were involved in was clearly about the benefits of having a lock down, vs not having a lock down, which is what my original post was about.

No it fecking wasn’t @Dan_F

The discussion was about whether or not lockdowns unequivocally work, something Wibs stated, no lockdown wasn’t even part of the discussion for fecks sake.
Israel, France, Spain, Victoria’s horrific 2020 make Wibs absolute statement that they unequivocally work a load of baloney. That’s was the entire debate.
I’ll make my stance very clear to you, they have worked very in some places, and have been a disaster in other such as Wibs very own Victoria*. The side of effects for those in Melbourne are absolutely awful when lockdown fails and they have to go all over again within a very short time.

*It’s hard to compare countries of course, but I’m told here neighbours are a good as any, Australia is most like NZ is both it’s isolation as an island and it’s culture, and despite this horrific half year of lockdown for Melbourne/Victoria, they have almost 7 times as many deaths per capita. “Working”.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

The US is at a total of 6,708,458 cases. India is at 4,845,003 cases and is adding about 90k cases per day. India is very likely to overtake the US very soon.

India has 1 billion more people than the US @iKnowNothing

 

[Brwned]

Either way if cases are rising at this level before Winter has hit and they continue to rise into Winter surely that in itself is going to be proof the first lockdown and subsequent policies have failed?

No it wouldn't be proof of failure. The original model many of these strategies were designed around came to the conclusion that intermittent lockdowns were inevitable. Avoiding that would be an exceptional success, not avoiding it would be entirely expected.
Might be worth looking at that graph in the top left to see what the "slightly higher peak" would look like in reality too.

So under the most conservative model estimate, where we're on lockdown about 3/4 of the time up until December 2021, we're still going to require more ICU beds (5,000) than we have (4,562). The grey blocks are periods of intermittent lockdowns, pink blocks are when intensive interventions* are ongoing, blue blocks are intermittent school closures.

*a significant programme of social distancing, with a particular impact on leisure activities; workers being asked to work from home where possible; shielding of both elderly (70+) individuals and people in high-risk-groups of all ages; and self-isolation of symptomatic individuals

Worth noting that they estimate the number of infections to be 2.5-3 times the number of confirmed cases, albeit that may have been based on a different testing protocol back in early March.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

No it wouldn't be proof of failure. The original model many of these strategies were designed around came to the conclusion that intermittent lockdowns were inevitable.

Which model was that Brwned? Is this the Imperial model which has already been shown to be an utter failure?

Even the designer of that model said in June that lockdowns are very crude policies and what we’d like to do is have much more targeted controlled transmission going forward”.

If the UK go back into a full lockdown I think it’s a clear failure of the UK system to test and trace.

 

[Wolverine]

Lack of testing is an absolute scandal in the UK.
I've got mild symptoms likely cold but my wife and kid have temp, new cough and therefore needing to isolate. Probably a bug my daughter picked up at nursery, loads going around but despite trying multiple occasions not able to get a test via government website. Trying through work connections now as NHS trusts' occu health sometimes have their own but feel for anybody trying to navigate this when they do the right thing and stay away from work with bosses annoyed. Dreading the coming winter period.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Lack of testing is an absolute scandal in the UK.
I've got mild symptoms likely cold but my wife and kid have temp, new cough and therefore needing to isolate. Probably a bug my daughter picked up at nursery, loads going around but despite trying multiple occasions not able to get a test via government website. Trying through work connections now as NHS trusts' occu health sometimes have their own but feel for anybody trying to navigate this when they do the right thing and stay away from work with bosses annoyed. Dreading the coming winter period.

Sounds like an absolute shit show. In Ireland we’re having our own testing capacity issues. The combination of the usual seasonal viruses kicking off while covid is still rife in the community puts the system under serious strain. This should have been predictable though, right? I’ve no idea what the rate limiting step might be when it comes to testing in the kind of quantities we’re going to need over the next few months but I’m worried that it’s just not possible to upscale to the level we’ll need if cases keep increasing at the current rate.

As I said above, we’ve been focussed on ensuring that hospitals/ICUs don’t get overwhelmed but there hasn’t been enough mention of what might happen when the test and tracing systems start to go under.

 

[finneh]

No it wouldn't be proof of failure. The original model many of these strategies were designed around came to the conclusion that intermittent lockdowns were inevitable. Avoiding that would be an exceptional success, not avoiding it would be entirely expected.
Might be worth looking at that graph in the top left to see what the "slightly higher peak" would look like in reality too.

These aren't the same models that predicted around 8000 deaths per 1m people by now without lockdown are they? Figures that also suggested a Sweden style response would have caused around 4000 deaths per 1m... A figure 7x larger than the reality in Sweden (or even the likes of the US and Brazil)?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

These aren't the same models that predicted around 8000 deaths per 1m people by now without lockdown are they? Figures that also suggested a Sweden style response would have caused around 4000 deaths per 1m... A figure 7x larger than the reality in Sweden (or even the likes of the US and Brazil)? I believe that same model predicted a now totally discredited mortality rate of a fraction under 1%

Eh? Totally discredited? By whom? Where are you reading about mortality rates? To be clear, the CFR globally is currently sitting at just over 3%.

IFR is much more difficult to calculate - so nobody can be certain of the true value - but the best available evidence has it between 0.5 and 1%.