Approx 1/3 of the world got this flu and 50 million people died. With covid I suspect we we could get far more than 3 waves before we get to the Herd Immunity Target, or close enough to stop/hugely reduce future waves partly because it is far more infectious so will have a higher HIT.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Approx 1/3 of the world got this flu and 50 million people died. With covid I suspect we we could get far more than 3 waves before we get to the Herd Immunity Target, or close enough to stop/hugely reduce future waves partly because it is far more infectious so will have a higher HIT.
Over 100k cases in the U.S today which is a new record . The next few months are going to be very very bad . I hope people & politicians can help in some damage limitation because that is all that can be done
Give me fecking strength.
Can see how it's gonna pan out. Lockdown in November. Relax a bit over Christmas and New Years. People will inevitably slacken and bend the rules over the holidays, which combined with flu season kicking into gear will mean an inevitable third national lockdown in January.
Agreed on all counts, with the distinction that pointing out the limit of their powers and responsibilities in specific areas is not making excuses, but rather allows us to focus in on what they are incontrovertibly responsible for, which in turn should have more of an impact.
I imagine even the majority of Tory voters agree that they are responsible for the deep cuts in essential services which has had all kinds of ripple effects throughout the pandemic, most notably the frequency with which the healthcare system is pushed to the limit, which naturally dictates the frequency of which we're forced into some stage of quarantine as well as the volume of poor health outcomes. It's hugely influential and plain to see. They might blame Labour for putting them in the position where they had to make those cuts and lead you up the garden path, but I imagine that would be a minority.
So it's better to focus our attention on that than on the limitations of the contact tracing system, as the essential limitations being discussed would have applied irrespective of who was in charge, as demonstrated by the fact it has happened all over the world regardless of who was in charge. Alternatively we're better at focusing on the corruption that existed in the test & trace progam, which again I think the vast majority of the population regardless of political affiliation would consider disgusting, especially while people are struggling to put food on the table.
There is very little about this government I think is worth defending, with the notable exception of the furlough scheme. Assessing the context in which decisions were made and the role that context had on the outcomes we're interested in is not making excuses for them, regardless of whether that assessment ends up being helpful or hurtful to the attempts to criticise the government on that issue. It's allowing us to determine what we should and should not spend our time talking about, when there's no shortage of things we could otherwise be focusing on.
Cheers mate, hope you woke up on time!Good luck. Me and the missus got negative results today, so cleared ti fly to Cyprus tomorrow. BA has moved the flight from 11:30am to 6:25am though
Don't take my word for it but I doubt it pal.
All of governments efforts here are so disjointed that it does make you think people aren’t taking it seriously enough because of it. They made a decision yesterday to close all cemeteries for the weekend, it’s a holiday weekend so virtually everyone across country travels to visit graves on November 1. While this is a correct decision, it should have been done a week or two ago, not now - some have already traveled, businesses have stocked up on flowers and candles they will not be able to do anything with now (candles you can still use but flowers you’ve got to bin) and the outcome is yet more protests on the streets over weekend. Most of the country is protesting now - women against new abortion regulations, conspiracy freaks against plandemic. Covid and it’s 300 deaths per day appear to be an afterthought in all of it.
Does this mean the Premier League and Champions League will be put on hold for a month?
On a related note, did anyone watch the trailer to Songbird? Bit wild.
Only one week closed down south (week just finished) and cases started coming down the beginning of the week before school holidays started. Plus there’s usually a 10-14 day lag for new measures to effect case numbers, due to long incubation period, so won’t be seeing effects of school holidays until kids back at school again from Monday, probably towards the end of the week.
It actually looks as though we’ve stopped the recent surge by the phase 3 measures implemented about three weeks ago (no more indoor dining/drinking, only one other household allowed to visit). Benefits of full lockdown (phase 5) still to come, as we’re only just 10 days into it (started Oct 21st) Halloween house parties (including kids parties!) could feck us up again though.
What are the dates of UK half term school holidays? Be interesting to see if they have much effect.
Last edited:
It’s mental that they haven’t introduced it already. If we learnt anything from the first lock down, it’s that it came a week or two late. I understand It’s a big call for the economy, but it wasn’t hard to look at the data and see where this was heading.
We’ve only had a week closed down and it’ll be a couple of weeks before we see the benefit
still, in general I don’t care how they spin it, I think it’s obvious that there is correlation. You can’t tell me that 14 year olds aren’t spreading it around their classrooms
Would've been much better to have the circuit breaker a few weeks ago and tie it into half term. Could've had a reasonable Christmas and avoided the insane increase of cases you get at this point. Probably take a long time to see the effects and counter the spread of the last week or two. Holding out to help businesses will probably crush many more if we have to cancel Nov and Dec. Should've got it done before that and damage would be less. Not to mention the rush for supplies for during 20 days in December if they do it for a month.
All this clapping for the NHS seems very facile.
All this clapping for the NHS seems very facile.
Last edited:
Not this time. The French and German leagues are continuing during their lockdown so will be no different here.
These lockdown would be easier to take if one had confidence the government knew what they were doing.
Kate Garraways husband has spoken after 7 months in Covid coma
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bre...ince-covid-19-hospital-admission-1027673.html
A bittersweet moment. 7 months, the poor man. I hope he pulls through
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bre...ince-covid-19-hospital-admission-1027673.html
A bittersweet moment. 7 months, the poor man. I hope he pulls through
I've got it, too, and I'm feeling really good, just headache and my sense of smell has changed.
But come on, the procedures are terrible. My fiancée doesn't know officialy whether she's quarantined or not (and I believe she's positive as well, obviously). I was tested yesterday, I've got the result in the morning and nobody called me (to ask about people I had contact with), nobody called her, just policemen called me to look out of the window. She can still do the shopping or take out the rubbish.
We knew this was going to happen in autumn and nobody thought that some offices require more people, especially when you have more than 20,000 new cases every day.
But come on, the procedures are terrible. My fiancée doesn't know officialy whether she's quarantined or not (and I believe she's positive as well, obviously). I was tested yesterday, I've got the result in the morning and nobody called me (to ask about people I had contact with), nobody called her, just policemen called me to look out of the window. She can still do the shopping or take out the rubbish.
We knew this was going to happen in autumn and nobody thought that some offices require more people, especially when you have more than 20,000 new cases every day.
Even when the scientists provide the evidence?
No-one is saying 14 year olds are properly social distancing at all times and taking all necessary precautions to limit the spread. They're saying that even in purely biological terms, irrespective of behaviour, they are less likely to spread it.
I didn't trust the politicians at all when they were saying it doesn't spread much amount kids teenagers but I don't see why we should doubt the significant number of independent scientists across the world that have come to the same conclusion, with separate pieces if evidence. All of the evidence is imperfect but why should we distrust their conclusions?
Domestic competition will continue but Champions League may stop at some point due to travel.
Seems similar to what happened in Ireland, where a Level 5 lockdown recommendation was initially rejected (presumably due to economic fears) in favour of a lighter plan government were told wouldn't work. The government was then forced to introduce the Level 5 lockdown weeks later anyway except for a longer (and more economically damaging) period.
In both cases I'm not sure what the government's plan was beyond hoping their scientific/medical advice was wrong.
The Irish situation is interesting in that it looks as though we’ve turned the corner based on Level 3 restrictions alone (see my previous post re timings) so there’s an argument to be made that Level 5 was never necessary and certainly not as early as NPHET’s original recommendation. Just goes to show what an inexact science all of this is. With errors and misjudgments inevitable, from scientists and politicians alike.
I think the ideas are pretty similar. Most counties would have needed to be put in tier 3 eventually but its all out of sync. Dublin may get it down but then neighbouring counties get hit hard and the overspill means Dublin are in and out of tier 3 through no fault of their own. Its the same story as to why Donegal suffered from the madness in Derry. We may get it under control again but a flair up in Derry means a flair up here.
Just seems best to reset everybody as the same rate
Tbf they still seem rather cautious in ascribing the turning of the corner to the Level 3 lockdown:
I think that managing through this whole situation is akin to military leadership at war. Nothing is ever certain, not the disposition and intentions of the enemy, not even your own forces' disposition and supply status. If you wait for the perfect picture, akin to waiting for the science to be certain here, events will already have passed you by. Unfortunately decisions have to be made with imperfect information.
It may well be the right thing to do. My point was that these things are linked, and therefore a balance needs to be struck. How we do that is clearly a difficult question.
They’re right to be cautious. Especially when discussing this in public. How do they get the nation to buy in to Level 5 if they openly admit it probably wasn’t needed?
To be fair, I’m glad we went to Level 5. Level 3 might stop the increase but we should try and get numbers as low as possible, as quickly as possible, to try and have some semblance of a normal Christmas. And the current lull in case numbers does feel very fragile. I’m also glad we didn’t jump straight to Level 5 when NPHET first recommended it. It was easier to adjust, mentally, to the more gradual way it all panned out.
The elephant in the room now is border controls. An unpopular subject in Ireland at the best of times!
Last edited:
Great idea. How do we do it exactly? Seems it's not that easy, as the vast majority of the world is finding.
Re your first point, I disagree. Some people won't want to go out, others will. Although I don't know why you're specifically mentioning pubs and restaurants, since I didn't. The economy is more than hospitality.
I didn't think my point was that controversial. Balance may be hard to find but that has to be the aim. A collapsed economy damages public health.
I think as long as they do the testing before/after traveling it will continue. It's the only way to continue I imagine.
Also, I know there are reasons I haven't thought of. But it's something I want to see happen for us all 'normal' people. I want to go see my fiance easily but can't - if I had to take a test before and after flying I would, even if it cost a couple hundred extra
I've heard that all regions could be placed in tier 3 restrictions with tougher measures imposed in areas already in tier 3 (tier 4?). They are citing the declining r rate in the tier 3 areas in the North as the rationale for this approach. So it won't be another total lockdown and they want to avoid this being perceived as one.
Because when school starts my kids catch every cold, flu, tummy bug, etc going around without fail. I really don’t trust these bits of evidence based on data from a few months, which doesn’t take into account parents in the situation either. Seriously how could Covid NOT spread at schools?
Last edited:
There are a few different theories about why kids seem a) less likely to get infected and/or b) less likely to infect others. Good explanation in this article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/parenting/coronavirus-children-spread-covid-19.html
Obviously “less likely “ doesn’t mean they won’t spread the virus at all but there seems to be enough of a difference to justify prioritising keeping schools open. And keeping kids (including poor/vulnerable kids) in school makes sense as a priority for society. One example of this being Rashford’s campaigning to keep school meals going during holidays.
I think the thousands of schools being forced to close around Europe proves that kids do spread it, and spread it quite a lot. Maybe not the very young, but teenagers are physically adults for the most part.
Dont forget scientists are learning as they go. Many things we thought we knew about this virus have turned out to be wrong, how it spreads being a major one.
Random question for the knowledge posters in here...
I live on the Isle of Man which has been coronavirus-free since about May (other than the odd self-isolation case from people returning to the island). However in the past few weeks loads of friends and colleagues have had the common cold. How's that possible? Has it been here all year but has resurfaced in the cold weather? Or has it come into the island in the same way coronavirus could?
I live on the Isle of Man which has been coronavirus-free since about May (other than the odd self-isolation case from people returning to the island). However in the past few weeks loads of friends and colleagues have had the common cold. How's that possible? Has it been here all year but has resurfaced in the cold weather? Or has it come into the island in the same way coronavirus could?
Great question! Never really understood that myself. Where do seasonal viruses hide during summer? I’m sure google could throw up some theories. I’m too lazy to check though.
100% with you on this. Literally 3 days after school started after lockdown, my 6 year old had a cold, which then quickly turned into all of us in the house having a cold for the first time in 5 months. Bit of a coincidence that, eh?
It all seems very difficult in Poland at the moment. I'm sorry, it must be very stressful living there right now. When I visited Poland, I loved the way everyone we met was so proud of their country (this was many years ago, I have to say).
Of course they are. The evidence the executive here used for the circuit breaker estimated that reduction of the R rate was 5 times greater with school closures than hospitality closures. But we’re going to ignore that and re-open them on Monday.
Yeah I get the social aspect, I live in a poor area, and there is some merit to it. But, poor areas also have a higher % of people with health issues, who need to be shielded. They don’t seem to be taken into account. I strongly feel that there should be lessons provided remotely as an option that parents can avail off.
Instead we are told that they can’t do it because there’s no resources for it and secondly if we choose to keep our kids off or if they are kept off sick more often (for example if they have sniffles and you’re doing the right thing by not sending them in), this all goes against their school attendance records. There isn’t any leeway given. This means parents are being forced to send kids into school. I feel they should be enabled to make individual choices to keep them off if the country is in lvl5 for example.
I’m cocooning since March. The only time I meet people outside my own bubble is taking or picking kids up at school. Many parents don’t wear masks, they crowd despite signposts and repeated guidance, etc. I’m at risk every time I go. Why aren’t they considering people like me as well rather than just spinning shit that it’s safe.
No knowledge here but I always thought colds just stick around but because transmission is lower during certain periods they can appear to have vanished entirely. Common bugs are always circulating.
Or magic