SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[golden_blunder]

Got me! Might request to go on the bench sometime soon though. Nothing better to do now.

Make sure to disinfect the bench first

 

[lynchie]

An interesting thread on why this new "lockdown" might not be as effective as it could be. Millions of people are still going to work, without enough protection or support for isolation.

 

[lynchie]

I have watched Mass online from all over the country since March. Catholic churches aren't empty, no idea how it looks in the CofE.

Since people have been allowed back in the churches, they are sitting apart from each other in the pews, there's no singing, everyone is wearing a mask, the services are kept as short as possible and no-one shakes hands.

There's no sharing of the wine and many priests are distributing the communion wafers as people leave, so they actually don't leave their seats during the service.

At the end of the service you see volunteers wiping down the pews with disinfectant. I don't think they could do much more to stay safe.

They definitely could do more - they could cancel in-person services. I get that they're doing all the "covid-safe" stuff, but essentially they're bringing people together from a large number of households into one enclosed space. There'll be crowding around entry and exit, there'll be people having a chat together outside.

 

[golden_blunder]

They definitely could do more - they could cancel in-person services. I get that they're doing all the "covid-safe" stuff, but essentially they're bringing people together from a large number of households into one enclosed space. There'll be crowding around entry and exit, there'll be people having a chat together outside.

My mother in law who is a big church goer won’t go anymore because despite all the stuff they have in place within the church, outside the church in the car park everyone is greeting each other, having chats with no precaution shown. She believes the churches should be closed which is a big statement coming from her.
I should add she’s in Kent which is fecked

 

[ha_rooney]

10 months too late, but Gove hinting that they’ll finally require people coming from abroad to have a negative test to enter the UK.

 

[Dancfc]

 

[Penna]

They definitely could do more - they could cancel in-person services. I get that they're doing all the "covid-safe" stuff, but essentially they're bringing people together from a large number of households into one enclosed space. There'll be crowding around entry and exit, there'll be people having a chat together outside.

The guidance is "follow the rules of the Government", wherever you live. Churches were closed for a long time here in Italy, although they are open now. I don't go in person at present because we're high-risk, and we can participate in any one of hundreds of live-streamed Masses (not the same of course, but I'm being pragmatic because of our situation).

I know the ones I've watched have organised exit from the church to maintain social distancing, but I'm sue you're right about people stopping outside.

 

[711]

I have watched Mass online from all over the country since March. Catholic churches aren't empty, no idea how it looks in the CofE.

Since people have been allowed back in the churches, they are sitting apart from each other in the pews, there's no singing, everyone is wearing a mask, the services are kept as short as possible and no-one shakes hands.

There's no sharing of the wine and many priests are distributing the communion wafers as people leave, so they actually don't leave their seats during the service.

At the end of the service you see volunteers wiping down the pews with disinfectant. I don't think they could do much more to stay safe.

I'm not religious but my family go to two CofE churches, one local with a mixed age congregation and one very large and vibrant with predominantly young people. Both have been closed for months.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

10 months too late, but Gove hinting that they’ll finally require people coming from abroad to have a negative test to enter the UK.

Cynical part of me thinks they wanted to wait until Brexit was done and dusted so they can use it to say "see we can control our borders now we're out the EU."

 

[Pogue Mahone]

They definitely could do more - they could cancel in-person services. I get that they're doing all the "covid-safe" stuff, but essentially they're bringing people together from a large number of households into one enclosed space. There'll be crowding around entry and exit, there'll be people having a chat together outside.

With all we know about the virus now there’s no way that spacing people out and wearing masks can guarantee safety. They’re putting the most vulnerable people from different households indoors together, for a long period of time. This won’t end well. They should absolutely stop in-person services.

 

[Berbaclass]

Another press conference today with Johnson, Whitty and Valance.

 

[Wibble]

Glad it worked out! Although it does sound a bit like academically he might have faced some disadvantages from missing that much school, and having sports achievements compensated for that both in short-term self-esteem and long-term prospects. It is hard to see how that maps onto a bookish young person at this time, they rely more on academic growth for their short-term self-esteem and long-term prospects than your son would by nature, and they don't even have the option of another outlet like sports in this moment. It seems reasonable to worry they might suffer more than your son did, in ways we don't quite understand.

I agree. I gave so much detail because I totally recognise that his experience doesn't apply to everyone. That said if his choices had failed it still would have been the right choice for him.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I hate the way stuff like this is worded. It’s not “covid restrictions“ that has pushed the poor man to breaking point. The word “restrictions” should be deleted from that sentence. We need to stop talking about the measures needed to keep our health services functional as distinct from the virus itself.

 

[Berbaclass]

 

[Solius]

Is this a bad thing, or more an elaboration on last night?

 

[Berbaclass]

Is this a bad thing, or more an elaboration on last night?

The latter I would imagine. I bet they try and justify the (unjustifiable) schools u-turn.

 

[Brwned]

I agree. I gave so much detail because I totally recognise that his experience doesn't apply to everyone. That said if his choices had failed it still would have been the right choice for him.

Yeah makes sense! Maybe this disruption to education might come with the benefit of people doing things differently, whether that's a more flexible model of education (certainly in higher education) and less of a rigid fixation on the normal education path for students. More people focusing on practical, skill-based education post-GCSEs was a good idea anyway with the prevailing trends before covid, this might make that easier. But you know better than me whether changes in education models are even remotely plausible!

Is this a bad thing, or more an elaboration on last night?

I don't think it's something to worry about. The situation is bad enough that another direct update from the health experts is necessary to provide more depth on the current situation, and doubles up as an opportunity to provide the evidence to justify yesterday's decision. Yesterday was about what comes next, this will explain a bit of the why.

 

[jojojo]

An interesting thread on why this new "lockdown" might not be as effective as it could be. Millions of people are still going to work, without enough protection or support for isolation.

My frustration through summer with the situation in Manchester was that for all the miscellany of lockdown measures (wobbling between tier 2/3 type controls) the rate never really came down low enough. Rather than looking at what was failing, we just got a "it's your own fault" from the government.

Questions like how you do you help key workers who also live in multigeneration homes just weren't addressed. Same with workers visiting multiple places with high risk clients - like carehomes, hospitals etc.

Everyone agrees that it's the right thing for people to self quarantine and get a test at the first sign of symptoms (where symptoms have become increasingly fuzzy as we've learned more about the disease). But that's hard if it costs you money, and money was already tight, or costs you your job, because you have no job security. It's hard if it interferes with informal care responsibilities. It's hard if you can't get a delivery slot and you need food or medicine.

In some areas/groups it reached the point where people were avoiding tests because they knew what it would immediately cost them, and their workmates/friends. Employers actually acknowledged that in a lot of places, by asking people to turn the covid app off on their phones. Hopefully the national nature of the measures and messaging will improve compliance, but it needs money behind it, and not just money to the same people who were protected last time.

I remain an optimist about where we're going - because I think the vaccines can have a massive impact. I'm not optimistic at all about how we'll get there though.

 

[lynchie]

The guidance is "follow the rules of the Government", wherever you live. Churches were closed for a long time here in Italy, although they are open now. I don't go in person at present because we're high-risk, and we can participate in any one of hundreds of live-streamed Masses (not the same of course, but I'm being pragmatic because of our situation).

I know the ones I've watched have organised exit from the church to maintain social distancing, but I'm sue you're right about people stopping outside.

I agree, totally, that they're following the rules of the Government, and will feel they're doing the right thing. I'm just concerned that the Government rules are ridiculous.

 

[Dancfc]

Shouldn't we be back to daily briefings now? If nothing else to give us updates on the vaccine programme.

 

[Relevated]

They're saying its to announce check ups at airport's

 

[GloryHunter07]

Is this a bad thing, or more an elaboration on last night?

I imagine it will be lots of graphs to back up the decision made last night. It will also make it politically difficult for any Tories to oppose the decision.

 

[Maticmaker]

I have watched Mass online from all over the country since March. Catholic churches aren't empty, no idea how it looks in the CofE.

Since people have been allowed back in the churches, they are sitting apart from each other in the pews, there's no singing, everyone is wearing a mask, the services are kept as short as possible and no-one shakes hands.

There's no sharing of the wine and many priests are distributing the communion wafers as people leave, so they actually don't leave their seats during the service.

At the end of the service you see volunteers wiping down the pews with disinfectant. I don't think they could do much more to stay safe.

Agree with everything you say, would add that there are only two Catholic churches in my area, but only one is being used that is because it has two distinct access points, one being used for entry the other for egress. As for gathering outside, the Curate is on hand (rain or shine) 'masked and sanitized', in the Church yard to hurry people up and break up any tendency to 'congregate' (excuse the pun!).

On Christmas day you had to prior book your pew for Mass using social media. I didnt know this and turned up asking for 'a pew for one' please, which luckily I got, (although I was behind a big stone pillar, couldn't see a thing)

Anyway, there was room at the Inn after all!

 

[legolegs]

Yeah, I suppose that was my point. They didn't take the right measures at the right time - that's the assessment now, after the fact. But you also could easily have said they should've taken harsher measures earlier, and many did. It inevitably would've cut transmission more, and prevented more medical harm. That was a valid viewpoint that Merkel and co. had to consider. But they also had to consider the damage of taking harsher measures too early. The damage to the economy and society are obvious, so the government is required to limit that as much as possible, by doing things as late as possible. It's just difficult to know when that is.

Merkel's assessment of "as late as possible" was much earlier than much of Europe's in spring, which led to better case management. But like you say it also got a strong pushback from many citizens and regional governments. It weakened her ability to do that a second time, and it would've changed her calculations somewhat too. Maybe she did things too early, maybe Germany could cope with more, maybe the damage to the economy is too severe. So Merkel's assessment of "as late as possible" in autumn was different to spring, and even right up to November, there was a desire to leave some things open for longer because it was thought that things could be managed as they are.

I don't really think the viewpoint of Merkel herself has changed a lot or even that she tried to do things as late as possible. I think she'd rather lock down as soon as possible; she's been in opposition to the relaxation of restrictions for pretty much the whole duration of the pandemic and she was upset and said as much when the new "lockdown" in November wasn't a proper lockdown. However you're right that she can't really enforce a lockdown against the will of the regional governments and of course of those quite a few did oppose lockdowns and tried to do as little as possible as late as possible which ultimately led to the current situation.

I guess in the end the fact that the she successfully pushed for an early lockdown in March and thus kept the numbers as low as they were led to a great amount of people (including politicians and judges) believing it's not that bad and we have it under control anyway which led to the soft approach in November that failed.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Interesting data coming out of Brazil on what unmitigated spread looks like. 76% infected and rising.

Doing the maths on this, applying age specific IFR, the herd immunity strategy some were calling for in the UK would result in >350k dead (and no guarantee of permanent, or even long term, immunity for those infected)

The fact that the epidemic is still raging after 76% of the population have been infected also makes you wonder how on earth this can ever be eradicated.

 

[711]

Interesting data coming out of Brazil on what unmitigated spread looks like. 76% infected and rising.

Doing the maths on this, applying age specific IFR, the herd immunity strategy some were calling for in the UK would result in >350k dead (and no guarantee of permanent, or even long term, immunity for those infected)

The fact that the epidemic is still raging after 76% of the population have been infected also makes you wonder how on earth this can ever be eradicated.

I wonder why the death toll in Brazil hasn't been a lot higher? A young population I suppose, but there should still be many millions of older or vulnerable people there?

 

[NinjaFletch]

I wonder why the death toll in Brazil hasn't been a lot higher? A young population I suppose, but there should still be many millions of older or vulnerable people there?

Because it's just the Amazon region rather than Brazil as a whole. As per the abstract: This is higher than in São Paulo, in southeastern Brazil, where the estimated attack rate in October is 29%.

 

[711]

Because it's just the Amazon region rather than Brazil as a whole. As per the abstract: This is higher than in São Paulo, in southeastern Brazil, where the estimated attack rate in October is 29%.

Ah right, thanks. I skimmed it due to laziness, sorry.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Ah right, thanks. I skimmed it due to laziness, sorry.

You’re right though. The death toll has been relatively low due to a very young population. The IFR in Manaus (where the study is based) is half that of Sao Paulo, which has an older population (still younger than most EU countries)

 

[Oldyella]

Oh christ. As if agreeing with Piers wasnt bad enough!

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Yep, in relation to the comparison though, most will get the AZ vaccine just because of the storage requirements ie. stored in a normal fridge, where Pfizer needs -70 degree storage before it's opened. So the approach of one dose on AZ now and 12 weeks later makes the most sense to me given that it'll be the critical mass vaccine.

Maybe, but they are administering Pfizer vaccines with those longer delays too.

Pfizer and BioNtech have advised against the UK government policy. How many scientists are the government going to ignore so they can play politics just so they can announce higher numbers of people given the jab? No point if it is ineffective.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer-second-dose-b1782467.html

 

[F-Red]

Maybe, but they are administering Pfizer vaccines with those longer delays too.

They're issuing guidance on longer delays, where are they administering this though? My other half's sister & brother in law have their second Pfizer jabs lined up for next week at Wythenshawe.

Pfizer and BioNtech have advised against the UK government policy. How many scientists are the government going to ignore so they can play politics just so they can announce higher numbers of people given the jab? No point if it is ineffective.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer-second-dose-b1782467.html

The JCVI has recommended the guidance the 12 weeks gap for both vaccines to the government. How many scientists? Well this is the JCVI below, or are you saying that these scientists are playing politics?

• Professor Andrew Pollard, Chair (University of Oxford)
• Professor Wei Shen Lim, Chair COVID-19 immunisation (Nottingham University Hospitals)
• Professor Anthony Harnden, Deputy Chair (University of Oxford)
• Professor Judith Breuer (University College Hospital)
• Dr Peter Elton (Greater Manchester, Lancashire, South Cumbria Strategic Clinical Network)
• Dr Maggie Wearmouth (East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust)
• Professor Matt Keeling (University of Warwick)
• Alison Lawrence (lay member)
• Professor Robert Read (Southampton General Hospital)
• Professor Anthony Scott (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)
• Professor Adam Finn (University of Bristol)
• Dr Fiona van der Klis (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Netherlands)
• Professor Maarten Postma (University of Groningen)
• Professor Simon Kroll (Imperial College London)
• Dr Martin Williams (University Hospitals Bristol)
• Professor Jeremy Brown (University College London Hospitals

 

[Buster15]

Oh christ. As if agreeing with Piers wasnt bad enough!

So you would prefer the current incapable, inept and incompetent people continuing to make mistake after mistake would you??

 

[Classical Mechanic]

They're issuing guidance on longer delays, where are they administering this though? My other half's sister & brother in law have their second Pfizer jabs lined up for next week at Wythenshawe.



The JCVI has recommended the guidance the 12 weeks gap for both vaccines to the government. How many scientists? Well this is the JCVI below, or are you saying that these scientists are playing politics?

• Professor Andrew Pollard, Chair (University of Oxford)
• Professor Wei Shen Lim, Chair COVID-19 immunisation (Nottingham University Hospitals)
• Professor Anthony Harnden, Deputy Chair (University of Oxford)
• Professor Judith Breuer (University College Hospital)
• Dr Peter Elton (Greater Manchester, Lancashire, South Cumbria Strategic Clinical Network)
• Dr Maggie Wearmouth (East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust)
• Professor Matt Keeling (University of Warwick)
• Alison Lawrence (lay member)
• Professor Robert Read (Southampton General Hospital)
• Professor Anthony Scott (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)
• Professor Adam Finn (University of Bristol)
• Dr Fiona van der Klis (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Netherlands)
• Professor Maarten Postma (University of Groningen)
• Professor Simon Kroll (Imperial College London)
• Dr Martin Williams (University Hospitals Bristol)
• Professor Jeremy Brown (University College London Hospitals

Germany are looking at doing the same I read earlier.

 

[Eugenius]

With all we know about the virus now there’s no way that spacing people out and wearing masks can guarantee safety. They’re putting the most vulnerable people from different households indoors together, for a long period of time. This won’t end well. They should absolutely stop in-person services.

I don't really think churches need to be open for communal service - they were shut in the first lockdown and during November, without much fuss. Everyone is making sacrifices across the board.

But this still sounds alarmist - if this new strain can be transmitted efficiently in roughly 45 minutes indoors even with masks and social distancing enforced, then I'm not sure we have much of a hope anyway with the current form of lockdown. Anyone working in manufacturing, retail (or basically anything still open) is going to have a lot more prolonged exposure to their colleagues on a daily basis.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I don't really think churches need to be open for communal service - they were shut in the first lockdown and during November, without much fuss. Everyone is making sacrifices across the board.

But this still sounds alarmist - if this new strain can be transmitted efficiently in roughly 45 minutes indoors even with masks and social distancing enforced, then I'm not sure we have much of a hope anyway with the current form of lockdown. Anyone working in manufacturing, retail (or basically anything still open) is going to have a lot more prolonged exposure to their colleagues on a daily basis.

And we should only keep people physically present at work in manufacturing and retail when this is absolutely necessary. With an even more cautious approach necessary if they were the same age as the average church-goer. And we all know that attending church in person is not absolutely necessary. I know it’s hard for some people but with sacrifices being made all round this seems like one of the most obvious ones.

 

[F-Red]

Germany are looking at doing the same I read earlier.

It's not surprising given the volumes being banded about at the minute, Denmark are also considering it also.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It's not surprising given the volumes being banded about at the minute, Denmark are also considering it also.

Denmark have got off to an absolute flier with their vaccination program too. Proof that being an EU member shouldn’t hinder rapid roll-out.

 

[Oldyella]

So you would prefer the current incapable, inept and incompetent people continuing to make mistake after mistake would you??

No, my point is I agree with him. Blair may be a war criminal but hes also competent, and using people who are competent rather than this current shower is how we end this.

 

[Vidyoyo]

And we should only keep people physically present at work in manufacturing and retail when this is absolutely necessary. With an even more cautious approach necessary if they were the same age as the average church-goer. And we all know that attending church in person is not absolutely necessary. I know it’s hard for some people but with sacrifices being made all round this seems like one of the most obvious ones.

Wouldn't work for manufacturers who produce exports, which many do. You'd see businesses dry up when their clients move to different global suppliers in countries less affected.

Retail is a different matter of course.