We've seen in practice it's even longer. 5 to 6 weeks before you really see a surge in cases after an event.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
We've seen in practice it's even longer. 5 to 6 weeks before you really see a surge in cases after an event.
You’d hope so. I’d imagine vaccination + the fact that many older people are more ”careful” than younger are behind those hospitalisation figures.
On a side note, I know you guys were originally talking about open borders again mid 2022, so we assumed our Aussie wedding guests would be fine for the new date, but what do you reckon? That’s surely still the plan right? Or are there murmurs otherwise?
Yes. Good point.
Thats not exactly true. We saw a 500% rise in cases 1 week after night clubs were opened in NL and 3 weeks after they closed again the numbers are steadily falling. Facts and stats are on the net.
My mum disagrees with them and encourages them to have them for their kids but they’re so stubborn and think they’re completely correct in everything they say. They’ve got a third child due in October and have said they won’t be giving them any vaccines.
We’ve all been vaccinated as kids which is great, and I’ll continue to get them in the future.
I strongly suspect that we will open up once all adults have been offered a vaccination , so late 2021 or early 2022
That’s good, fingers crossed there.
Just popped into say I have now had both of my vaccinations 
touchwood all will be good in the future.
touchwood all will be good in the future.all kicked off in Sydney yesterday with the anti lockdown protests
some wanker punched a police horse ffs
some wanker punched a police horse ffs
Hmm, not sure how much impact this is currently having on UK numbers, but it's certainly something that needs fixing.
Apparently to avoid the problem of counting the same infection multiple times in the data, the UK dashboard doesn't count the same person testing positive twice. Even if the first positive was 3 months or more ago.
It may not be a huge difference if the "only 1% of cases are reinfections" holds true. Not right though.
Apparently to avoid the problem of counting the same infection multiple times in the data, the UK dashboard doesn't count the same person testing positive twice. Even if the first positive was 3 months or more ago.
It may not be a huge difference if the "only 1% of cases are reinfections" holds true. Not right though.
Was it barking?
I don't think it makes much difference to the headline numbers - it's just a quirk. But like the quirk that was counting any death any time after a positive test as a covid death, it needs an update. If only because it might mean more on some of the local and age demographic numbers.
Big fall in cases over last few days.
Good to see numbers dropping, but its a rather heavy fall very quickly?
Similar happened in India. Might be characteristic of the Delta variant?
Monday numbers are always a bit lower. It’s definitely falling though which was expected as the big numbers were credited to the Euros which finished a couple of weeks ago now. The real litmus test is in a couple of weeks time when we see the effects of “Freedom Day”
I think we still need to give it a few weeks to see the impact of totally opening up, I would guess that it will rise again.
Numbers are dropping because all schools are now closed.
The number of tests being carried out is down by 4.9 percent over the past 7 days. Less testing could mean that fewer infections are being picked up.
This is it. Scotlands case rate fell post 1st July when schools closed, we're seeing the impact now a week after a lot of schools have closed. We'll see further drops this week off the back of more schools closing on Thursday. The bump for 'freedom' day is what people are expecting a spike on, I'm not so sure we'll see on due to schools finishing and it'll be washed up in the general decline.
but the fall is far bigger than the fall in the number of tests not being carried out
We saw a similar drop in Scotland a couple of weeks ago, and that drop has now shown through on hospitalisations. So, the case drop there was definitely real.
The fact that the case curves across the regions are similar may be significant as well. If it was just about testing rates then you wouldn't expect that. Maybe the Euros ending, schools closing, students going home and the good weather arriving have all combined. Plus, lots of people quarantined by getting tests or as contacts maybe taking a bit of the heat out - we'll also see an increasing effect from people getting vaxxed in June/July as well.
That said, it does look like the Euros behaved like a bunch of super-spreader (and mini-super-spreader events in the case of families/friends getting together for the matches). There's plenty of potential for those with the new openings, but it is impressive how fast the numbers rise/flatten/fall with Delta. Maybe something to do with symptoms arriving earlier (after 4 days?) - maybe the infectious period tails off early as well?
The fact that the case curves across the regions are similar may be significant as well. If it was just about testing rates then you wouldn't expect that. Maybe the Euros ending, schools closing, students going home and the good weather arriving have all combined. Plus, lots of people quarantined by getting tests or as contacts maybe taking a bit of the heat out - we'll also see an increasing effect from people getting vaxxed in June/July as well.
That said, it does look like the Euros behaved like a bunch of super-spreader (and mini-super-spreader events in the case of families/friends getting together for the matches). There's plenty of potential for those with the new openings, but it is impressive how fast the numbers rise/flatten/fall with Delta. Maybe something to do with symptoms arriving earlier (after 4 days?) - maybe the infectious period tails off early as well?
There was a mini trend of this with the Bolton outbreak originally, quick and aggressive peak and then dropped off quickly. This just looks to be mirrored on the wider scale as the variant became dominant.
If it is down to schools closing, are cases really dropping or are we just not catching them with standardized testing? Either way, given the focus is now really on hospital admissions/more serious cases, the news the past few days is very promising.
To be honest the hospital admissions have been promising on this wave due to the vaccine impact. 3rd & 4th images on this tweet show the impact vs the prior wave.
Probably @horsechoker cousin horsepuncher
Will be interested to hear if there were many pinged after being stuck in huge numbers at the airports the last few days
No sophistication, anyone can punch a horse but where's the grace? Choking is an art, it requires skill, planning, experience.
Yeah but I hear your outback cousins have no class
Kangaroochoker is a proper mad bastard, a kangaroo will feck you up like a human. Horses are just big but possess no fighting skills.
The public health messaging around masks in the US, starting from Fauci last April, and culminating in a clearly premature no-masks earlier this month, is a total disaster that has greased the gears for Republicans to make it a culture war issue, and for their state govts to have anti-mask mandates in place.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-vaccinated-in-us-and-eu-reckless-says-labour
I don't understand this, the UK is already allowing people who are double jabbed in the UK to return without quarantine but Angela Rayner doesn't think this should apply to people double jabbed in the EU or US because of a new variant that doesn't exist yet.
Does she think that only people jabbed outside the UK will carry the variant?
I don't understand this, the UK is already allowing people who are double jabbed in the UK to return without quarantine but Angela Rayner doesn't think this should apply to people double jabbed in the EU or US because of a new variant that doesn't exist yet.
Does she think that only people jabbed outside the UK will carry the variant?
Labour has just as many clueless morons as The Tories, don't forget that. I mean what couldn't a career politician with a part time qualification in sign language and social care tell us about epidemiology?
One party could say the sky was blue and the other would call it shameful or reckless or some other nonsense. Thankfully the actual experts all say its fine to recognise each others vaccinations.
I think they're caught up in the same old loop. Rather than focus on positives - like fighting for better funding for sick pay and self-quarantine, or on looking for why some people are not taking up the vaccine, they get caught up in a "lets act tough" rhetoric. I think we're at the stage in the UK where we need more carrots and less sticks (and I include flagwaving about border controls in the sticks column) to encourage vaccine takeup, help people staying home from work when they're sick, and better practices (like improved ventilation).
There's also the influence of the zero covid dream and the whole idea that "any death is one too many" - well, sure and that's self-evident but it isn't a realistic option and we need to actually start valuing human interaction and quality of life as part of the equation. Labour needs to be highlighting the inequalities that the pandemic has exposed - moaning about vaccinated people visiting the UK is just a headline, it's not a policy.
BBC talking like we're about to get official confirmation of the travel changes:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57999362
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57999362
I wonder if they'll drop the day 2 test for the fully vaccinated by the end of the summer too?
@Penna - looks like the EU vaccinated = no UK quarantine (from amber countries - but looks like no change for France just yet) change starts on Monday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57999362
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57999362
I wouldn't be surprised but for now it remains in place.
Cheers jojojo, that's good news.