So that’s Sydney in full lockdown for 6 weeks now? Feels like Australia is now going through what everyone went through, only one year later.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
So that’s Sydney in full lockdown for 6 weeks now? Feels like Australia is now going through what everyone went through, only one year later.
They can never be thanked enough for what they have done, and if they've reached their breaking point there's no shame in that, it must have been incredibly tough.
Delta plus NSW's unwillingness to lock down properly makes me think that we won't eliminate again. With #scottyfrommarketing fecking up vaccine procurement we could have blown elimination until vaccination is more universal with makes the next 6 to 12 months shit.
It seems to me that Australian citizens are being treated with contempt. Meanwhile, rich foreigners can still come and go without too much difficulty.
130k cases in the US yesterday? How bad is it in terms of hospitalization?
I read (a few days back) that 97% of hospitalizations and 99.5% deaths were people who hadn't been vaccinated.. Considering 70% of the adults have had at least 1 doze, the latest surge cant last that long.. surely..
Is it far worse in pockets where people refuse to get vaccinated or is it bad all over?
I read (a few days back) that 97% of hospitalizations and 99.5% deaths were people who hadn't been vaccinated.. Considering 70% of the adults have had at least 1 doze, the latest surge cant last that long.. surely..
Is it far worse in pockets where people refuse to get vaccinated or is it bad all over?
My mates got me a ticket for the Charlton game later today. I’m only single vaccinated at the moment. I’ll wear a mask and have lots of hand sanitiser on me but you think it will be ok or should I cancel?
Impossible to give you a definitive answer. The single dose will give you some protection. The longer ago it was, the more protection you have. Your decision will depend on your own appetite for risk and whether you think you’re likely to get a bad outcome from covid (age, underlying conditions etc)
Although ultimately the most important factor might be how much of a bummer it will be to watch Charlton beat Arsenal
[
Best video I’ve seen in a long time!! I hope he gets to keep his job and they don’t discipline him for using duct tape
Best video I’ve seen in a long time!! I hope he gets to keep his job and they don’t discipline him for using duct tape
I really enjoy reading the stories of all these anti vaxers who spread so much bullsh*t about it's all a hoax and creating trouble etc and then reading they all died from Covid.
I bet Corbyn got vaccinated secretly hence, he hasn't croaked yet.
I guess if you're gonna die, then standing by your delusions is the way to go.
I bet Corbyn got vaccinated secretly hence, he hasn't croaked yet.
I guess if you're gonna die, then standing by your delusions is the way to go.
Impossible to give you a definitive answer. The single dose will give you some protection. The longer ago it was, the more protection you have. Your decision will depend on your own appetite for risk and whether you think you’re likely to get a bad outcome from covid (age, underlying conditions etc)
Although ultimately the most important factor might be how much of a bummer it will be to watch Charlton beat Arsenal
Thanks for the reply. Just to note it’s not Charlton v arsenal. Our season starts next week although I can see why would think we Arsenal are currently in league one.
Other than being a bit of a smoker I have no underlying health issues, in my early 30’s and had my first vaccine several weeks ago so all in all I should be fine.
What do you think the chances of catching it at a football match are? The club says it’s not enforcing the wearing of masks which is a bit of worry. If I did catch it I should be alright but I’d rather not risk it for a football match so I think I may cancel.
Thanks for the reply. Just to note it’s not Charlton v arsenal. Our season starts next week although I can see why would think we Arsenal are currently in league one.
Other than being a bit of a smoker I have no underlying health issues, in my early 30’s and had my first vaccine several weeks ago so all in all I should be fine.
What do you think the chances of catching it at a football match are? The club says it’s not enforcing the wearing of masks which is a bit of worry. If I did catch it I should be alright but I’d rather not risk it for a football match so I think I may cancel.
Are you living with anyone from in the vulnerable groups? That would be something to consider as well I think
Thanks for the reply. Just to note it’s not Charlton v arsenal. Our season starts next week although I can see why would think we Arsenal are currently in league one.
Other than being a bit of a smoker I have no underlying health issues, in my early 30’s and had my first vaccine several weeks ago so all in all I should be fine.
What do you think the chances of catching it at a football match are? The club says it’s not enforcing the wearing of masks which is a bit of worry. If I did catch it I should be alright but I’d rather not risk it for a football match so I think I may cancel.
Honestly, hard to know how likely you ars to catch it at a match. The actual sitting in the stands bit is relatively safe. It’s when you’re queuing to get in, of to get a pie/beer that you’re more at risk.
As I said, it’s all about your own appetite for risk. If you’ve decided not to go to the gym, or pubs, or restaurants until fully vaccinated then the consistent thing to do would be to not go to the match. If you’re already doing all that other stuff then a match won’t really change your overall risk that much.
Hospitalisations are rising and are more or less tracking lower vaccination levels. Texas has about 8k people hospitalised and cases are still rising. Florida has gone over 12k.
The US is so big that there have always been surges in some places while other places are quiet, but it certainly looks like they've entered a major wave of cases and illness, particularly amongst the unvaxxed.
Demographic data isn't as easy to track as in the UK. Basically if those hospitals are filling with unvaxxed over 70s then death rates are going to turn very nasty. If it's with unvaxxed under 40s and double vaxxed over 70s, then it'll be a massive strain on the hospitals, but the deaths might not rise in the same way.
7 fully vaxxed elderly patients died from the Colombia variant in NL
Thanks for the reply. Just to note it’s not Charlton v arsenal. Our season starts next week although I can see why would think we Arsenal are currently in league one.
Other than being a bit of a smoker I have no underlying health issues, in my early 30’s and had my first vaccine several weeks ago so all in all I should be fine.
What do you think the chances of catching it at a football match are? The club says it’s not enforcing the wearing of masks which is a bit of worry. If I did catch it I should be alright but I’d rather not risk it for a football match so I think I may cancel.
How long is a piece of string? It's an impossible question though early in the pandemic football matches were shown to be huge breeding grounds for Covid in place like Bergamo. However, data from the vaccine trials shows you should have a very good level of protection from around 14 days in even with 1 dose. If it were me, I would go but be sure to exercise caution. Even now I am fully vaccinated I still wear filter masks when I go anywhere higher risk.
Graph is from Pfizer but Moderna is almost identical. Dose 2 was given 21 days in.
How are things in Tenerife ? Is it settled there or are cases rising?
Interesting thread. Still good to see vaccines very effective against hospitalizations and deaths.
II’ve thought that herd immunity was off the table since delta became dominant. Still depressing to see it confirmed like this. Is Iceland fully open now?
North Land?
Don't know. I'm from USA.
I'm more than happy with vaccine efficacy with regards to hospitalizations and deaths. The data from Iceland conforms to that.
Yeah, same. Although surging cases will inevitably make governments nervous. Which could cause backward steps in our return to normality. Which would be a shame.
I would say in USA there is a consistent messaging from a lot of public health people I follow on social media (maybe a source of bias for me) that vaccines have been very effective and the focus should be on hospitalizations and deaths. And I think this govt at least gets that. If I am not mistaken Andy Slavit who headed their task force till recently is along those lines. So I am not worried that US govt will worry about cases and go backwards.
Our battle is getting people vaccinated in the first place. As you well know.
This is a good/reassuring read from someone who really knows his stuff.
I don't think that graph is all that surprising tbh. It's known the vaccine isn't stopping transmission anyway isn't it?
A couple of interesting bits of info emerging in those threads:
Case rates per 100k adults.
Green - fully vaxxed
Yellow - unvaxxed
One observation that might be of concern for other countries as well is that a lot of the infections are in people who are vaccinated with single dose Janssen. That may be confused by the fact that it's mostly been used with young adults and that's also the group with the highest case rate and number of unvaxxed people. Plus some of them may only be a couple of weeks post-vaccine and there is some evidence that it gets steadily more effective over the next few weeks.
Some early real world data though is suggesting that J&J may be behaving like first dose AZ - rather than a true single dose product. I'm sure a lot of countries are keeping an eye on that, particularly with Delta.
Vaccination started - single dose of a two dose vax.
Yes. This is more data pointing towards that.
Was there a breakdown of vaccinated people by manufacturer somewhere or you deduced it from age profile? I didn't see that on first glance.A couple of interesting bits of info emerging in those threads:
Case rates per 100k adults.
Green - fully vaxxed
Yellow - unvaxxed
One observation that might be of concern for other countries as well is that a lot of the infections are in people who are vaccinated with single dose Janssen. That may be confused by the fact that it's mostly been used with young adults and that's also the group with the highest case rate and number of unvaxxed people. Plus some of them may only be a couple of weeks post-vaccine and there is some evidence that it gets steadily more effective over the next few weeks.
Some early real world data though is suggesting that J&J may be behaving like first dose AZ - rather than a true single dose product. I'm sure a lot of countries are keeping an eye on that, particularly with Delta.
94% of J&J was given over 4 weeks before the wave started so don't think it will get considerably more effective, a bit sure.
Peer reviewed study from India:
Results
Of 3892 employees, 3532 (90.8%) participated in the study. The ivermectin uptake was 62.5% and 5.3% for two doses and single dose, respectively. Participants who took ivermectin prophylaxis had a lower risk of getting symptoms suggestive of SARS-CoV-2 infection (6% vs 15%). HCWs who had taken two doses of oral ivermectin had a significantly lower risk of contracting COVID-19 infection during the following month (ARR 0.17; 95% CI, 0.12-0.23). Females had a lower risk of contracting COVID-19 than males (ARR 0.70; 95% CI, 0.52-0.93). The absolute risk reduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 9.7%. Only 1.8% of the participants reported adverse events, which were mild and self-limiting.
Conclusion
Two doses of oral ivermectin (300 μg/kg/dose given 72 hours apart) as chemoprophylaxis among HCWs reduced the risk of COVID-19 infection by 83% in the following month. Safe, effective, and low-cost chemoprophylaxis has relevance in the containment of pandemic alongside vaccine.
https://www.cureus.com/articles/648...onavirus-2-infection-among-healthcare-workers
Results
Of 3892 employees, 3532 (90.8%) participated in the study. The ivermectin uptake was 62.5% and 5.3% for two doses and single dose, respectively. Participants who took ivermectin prophylaxis had a lower risk of getting symptoms suggestive of SARS-CoV-2 infection (6% vs 15%). HCWs who had taken two doses of oral ivermectin had a significantly lower risk of contracting COVID-19 infection during the following month (ARR 0.17; 95% CI, 0.12-0.23). Females had a lower risk of contracting COVID-19 than males (ARR 0.70; 95% CI, 0.52-0.93). The absolute risk reduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 9.7%. Only 1.8% of the participants reported adverse events, which were mild and self-limiting.
Conclusion
Two doses of oral ivermectin (300 μg/kg/dose given 72 hours apart) as chemoprophylaxis among HCWs reduced the risk of COVID-19 infection by 83% in the following month. Safe, effective, and low-cost chemoprophylaxis has relevance in the containment of pandemic alongside vaccine.
https://www.cureus.com/articles/648...onavirus-2-infection-among-healthcare-workers
It was down in one of the offshoot twitter threads. Looking at the official data I don't see the raw data, so it may have been extrapolated from the fact that the J&J was mostly used in June and mostly among the under 30s. Which is the group where most of the cases are now.
That said, given the very high vaccine takeup in Iceland (over 90% of adults) the raw data is still suggesting that the vaccines are 70% effective against infection and massively effective against hospitalisation and death. However Iceland is small, so the numbers in any particular age/vax status cohort are unlikely to leave you with much statistical certainty. It might feed into a bigger analysis somewhere though. It might even be that Iceland is effectively the first Pfizer v Moderna v AZ v J&J trial we've seen.
Not too often you get to read an article from an expert who doesn’t have an extreme view on either side. Cheers for that, good read.
500k healthcare workers in South Africa were vaccinated with J&J between Feb and May, and we’ve just come out of our third wave.A couple of interesting bits of info emerging in those threads:
Case rates per 100k adults.
Green - fully vaxxed
Yellow - unvaxxed
One observation that might be of concern for other countries as well is that a lot of the infections are in people who are vaccinated with single dose Janssen. That may be confused by the fact that it's mostly been used with young adults and that's also the group with the highest case rate and number of unvaxxed people. Plus some of them may only be a couple of weeks post-vaccine and there is some evidence that it gets steadily more effective over the next few weeks.
Some early real world data though is suggesting that J&J may be behaving like first dose AZ - rather than a true single dose product. I'm sure a lot of countries are keeping an eye on that, particularly with Delta.
I’ll need to dig up the stats, but J&J has found to be about 70% effective against hospitalisation and 95% against death. The numbers are obviously a bit skewed by the fact that the frontline workers are highly exposed to the virus, particularly during a massive wave. Having said that, I think J&J won’t stop infections but should hopefully stop the critical cases. For Africa, two doses is a disaster, so we’ll definitely be forging ahead with the J&J.
Looking at the reports it seems that J&J was very effective preventing hospitalisations and deaths but they don't seem to give any details on transmission along with mild and moderate illness. With the Delta variant one shot of the other vaccines was highly effective in preventing hospitalisations and death but quite a lot less effective when guarding against transmission and mild to moderate illnesses.
Ya, by pure speculation, I would imagine 1 shot of J&J is the most effective 'single shot', but it's less effective than the double shots (well the Western double shots at least).
It’s a bit grim but in countries where one shot is the best/only option a reasonable level of protection against severe illness is probably good enough. If/when a vaccinated person gets a mild/moderate illness that can act as a (probably extremely effective) booster.
Ya, plus there will be surplus vaccines at some point, so those of us who got J&J will probably be able to top it up if we want. Anecdotally, the majority of those who have become infected after receiving J&J have had very mild cases. The one person I know who ended up in ICU is over 60 and has one lung, I'm assuming they would've been a prime candidate for death if they had not received a vaccine.
Where are we with how long vaccinations last, will they become an annual event as the flu vaccine is? and if so how long will our proof of double vaccination last for? Is anyone talking about this at the moment as I can't find much on it, despite my own research which consisted of a half-arsed google search.
As more than 20% of Iceland's population is under 16 that means they have less than 75% of the population vaccinated which is significantly less than the circa 85% we think will be needed to reach HIT. That doesn't mean we will but it certainly doesn't mean that we won't get to the HIT.
Last edited:
If you’re including everyone from aged zero upwards, there’s not a country on the planet that will vaccinate 85% of its population. 93% aged 16+ is actually pretty exceptional. I would be surprised if any other country does better.