SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

jojojo said:
Some good evidence that vaccine +infection works very well against infection and some that recent infection works against infection provided you were ill enough to develop plenty of antibodies. From SA it looks like (at least in the under 60s) vaccines and/or past infection are both protective against severe disease.
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That sounds quite positive.
 
jojojo said:
It really hasn't. Modelling warns you about what happens if you change nothing. In real life when the numbers in the model got too hairy we went into various degrees of restrictions or lockdowns. More surprising perhaps people sometimes react faster than the government does - like the PL stopping playing before they were told to or the companies who've decided to change/postpone their Christmas parties this month.

The modellers know there are things they can't predict so they state that in the model. Just like that original Imperial College model said "if you do nothing, 500 thousand die." It didn't happen because we didn't do nothing.
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What was the situation in the summer when 100k cases were predicted daily after freedom day? Was that a lone wolf unconnected from Sage who said that or the actual panel, can't remember.

That was of course with limited social distancing and mask wearing and thousands packed back into sports grounds with the inevitable crushes on public transport. Also at that point vaccine uptake was certainly over 50%.

Edit; Oh ffs Javid actually said it. :lol:

Covid cases could soon rise above 100,000 a day, Javid concedes | Coronavirus | The Guardian
 
Johnson is deluded yet again, that target isn't realistic. Late Jan/early Feb to get boosters up into 40m + is a little more realistic.
 
FootballHQ said:
Johnson is deluded yet again, that target isn't realistic. Late Jan/early Feb to get boosters up into 40m + is a little more realistic.
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I just booked mine today and earliest I could get was January 6th.
 
duffer said:
Boris and the BBC site are letting me down, does "level 4" change anything in terms of what I can do?
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1 step away from the worst stage before he has to do something that nobody will follow
 
Booster done yesterday, my third Moderna jab. Had a little bit of tiredness and feeling hot today but not enough to stop me skiing, and nothing like the side effects I had with dose 2.

Oh and my arm kills.
 
FootballHQ said:
What was the situation in the summer when 100k cases were predicted daily after freedom day? Was that a lone wolf unconnected from Sage who said that or the actual panel, can't remember.

That was of course with limited social distancing and mask wearing and thousands packed back into sports grounds with the inevitable crushes on public transport. Also at that point vaccine uptake was certainly over 50%.

Edit; Oh ffs Javid actually said it. :lol:

Covid cases could soon rise above 100,000 a day, Javid concedes | Coronavirus | The Guardian
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I’m not really sure what kind of points you’re trying to score here. Or are you just trying to let everyone know you’re unfamiliar with the word “could”?

All of these models have loads of uncertain variables so it’s impossible to be very accurate. It’s all about educated guesses, with a huge range between best and worst case outcomes. But it’s the worst case scenarios that get talked about the most because nobody wants to allow things get to a point where the worst case future will end up crashing the health service.

One of the most annoying criticisms of the measures taken throughout this pandemic has been people saying “you said it would be much worse than it was” Well, yes, it could have been much worse than it was but a bit of luck combined with the measures that were taken managed to avoid the worst possible predictions. Which is great. But obviously shouldn’t be used as ammunition to fire at the next expert who warns how badly things could go if we’re not very careful.
 
FootballHQ said:
What was the situation in the summer when 100k cases were predicted daily after freedom day? Was that a lone wolf unconnected from Sage who said that or the actual panel, can't remember.

That was of course with limited social distancing and mask wearing and thousands packed back into sports grounds with the inevitable crushes on public transport. Also at that point vaccine uptake was certainly over 50%.

Edit; Oh ffs Javid actually said it. :lol:

Covid cases could soon rise above 100,000 a day, Javid concedes | Coronavirus | The Guardian
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Javid said it because it was "reasonable worst case" that the government decided we could live with. Other models presented what they viewed as more "likely".

As it happens we didn't "rip the pants out of it" as Jonathon Van Team warned us against - so we went and sat on the likely steady state line. In fact we sat on it so well, it was almost as if people were looking at the number of cases/deaths being reported and taking decisions about their own behaviour.

It also looked like our remaining controls - through lateral flow tests, self isolation after a positive test and getting vaccinated did exactly what they were supposed to.
 
So if I read between the lines correctly:

Astrazeneca/Jannsen are useless against Omicron.
Pfizer and Moderna are ok, but you need to have had it recently. What's the 'peak protection period' ? After 8 weeks or so?
Past infection is ok too, but depending on how old/what variant it was, and how severe it was?
 
Bosws87 said:
they have modelled it on the severity of delta which the data is painting a clear picture this isn’t the case
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The very clear picture is emerging about what happens to under 60s who have either been vaccinated or have had recent prior infections.

We don't yet have a very clear picture on the over 60s or the immune naive (no vax, no recent infection)

Incidentally, I talked about the things that are built into the model a couple of days ago. There's nothing hidden about the model, they warn that it will change repeatedly in the next few days. The modelling data is designed to be read in it's entirety by SAGE scientists not as a clickbait headline:
jojojo said:
One for people interested in what kind of modelling the scientists are presenting via SAGE to the NHS and the government.

Two things to note before you read the headlines about "scientists predict" millions of cases, hundreds of thousands of hospitalisations and tens of thousands of deaths:
First - they aren't predictions. They describe a set of assumptions based on current best evidence and look at what happens if nothing else changes (ie: no lockdowns, no people deciding to limit their own social activities etc and that their other assumptions about vaccines etc hold true)
Second - they have to make assumptions about severity. So they assume that once infected you're as likely to get hospitalised/die as you would be if you caught delta. In reality we don't yet know if that's true.

A glimpse into the complex and difficult world of statistical modelling and what goes on behind the headlines:
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owlo said:
So if I read between the lines correctly:

Astrazeneca/Jannsen are useless against Omicron.
Pfizer and Moderna are ok, but you need to have had it recently. What's the 'peak protection period' ? After 8 weeks or so?
Past infection is ok too, but depending on how old/what variant it was, and how severe it was?
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AZ and J&J don't look useless against serious disease. They do look useless against infection, unless you get a mRNA booster in which case the combination looks really good against infection or disease.

Pfizer/Moderna are weaker than were against infection but still having an impact for months after dose 2, but they look ok against Omicron infection once boosted.

Past infection is less predictable, it may protect against infection for a few months in some. It may protect against severe infection for longer.
 
jojojo said:
AZ and J&J don't look useless against serious disease. They do look useless against infection, unless you get a mRNA booster in which case the combination looks really good against infection or disease.

Pfizer/Moderna are weaker than were against infection but still having an impact for months after dose 2, but they look ok against Omicron infection once boosted.

Past infection is less predictable, it may protect against infection for a few months in some. It may protect against severe infection for longer.
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Perhaps the Canadians are just being cautious then as they are offering immediate boosters to any who had those vaccines. Is there any reliable data yet wrt combining vaccine types vs single vector vaccining? Is a cocktail likely to be the future best option?

How is Pfizer/Moderna efficacy against severe illeness without a booster? Is it as good/better than the above, or worse?

Are we likely to be in a situation now where it's likely to combine with another coronavirus to become worse?
 
Meant to get the train up to Scotland this week for Xmas. Just tested positive on lateral flow test. :( Will see what the PCR test says this week.
 
Its going to be a huge logstical undertaking to get the booster at the levels Boris wants.

GPs and secondary care will have to cancel a lot of routine work or appointments. Army will help, they've told us they're ditching the fifteen minute post-jab observation period that was a bit of a bottle neck in keeping lines going but will be massively challenging. With staff absences during christmas period, I just don't see how one million per day will be hit but let's see.
 
owlo said:
Perhaps the Canadians are just being cautious then as they are offering immediate boosters to any who had those vaccines. Is there any reliable data yet wrt combining vaccine types vs single vector vaccining? Is a cocktail likely to be the future best option?

How is Pfizer/Moderna efficacy against severe illeness without a booster? Is it as good/better than the above, or worse?

Are we likely to be in a situation now where it's likely to combine with another coronavirus to become worse?
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We don't know enough to give real world Omicron estimates for severe disease following vaccines - it just hasn't been around for long enough for us to know. Indications are good though - there haven't been many severe cases leading to death so far and there hasn't been a massive rise in hospitalisations. It's hard to analyse right now because most cases that are more than two weeks old are in 20-40 year olds where case severity is usually low anyway. Plus most people affected in that age group in SA have prior infections. We'll find out a lot more in the next couple of weeks.

Lab analysis suggests that a AZ + Pfizer combination doesn't just give you a great quantity of circulating antibodies, it gives you a really good set of T and B cells. It might be that it's better to mix and match but we won't know until we get real world results.
 
Bosws87 said:
Theres a little difference to an annual jab to getting one every 3 months.
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The annual flu jab is co-ordinated with flu season though (winter), we're being asked to take a booster earlier both because it's winter and mainly because there's a new variant around. Pandemics are rare and we're going to have to do some unusual things to cope with it for a couple of years.

Eventually it will become either an annual jab or will just fade as the virus mutates itself into something less worrying.
 
Wolverine said:
Its going to be a huge logstical undertaking to get the booster at the levels Boris wants.

GPs and secondary care will have to cancel a lot of routine work or appointments. Army will help, they've told us they're ditching the fifteen minute post-jab observation period that was a bit of a bottle neck in keeping lines going but will be massively challenging. With staff absences during christmas period, I just don't see how one million per day will be hit but let's see.
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It's almost like he's trying to distract people from something with a ludicrous plan...
 
jojojo said:
We don't know enough to give real world Omicron estimates for severe disease following vaccines - it just hasn't been around for long enough for us to know. Indications are good though - there haven't been many severe cases leading to death so far and there hasn't been a massive rise in hospitalisations. It's hard to analyse right now because most cases that are more than two weeks old are in 20-40 year olds where case severity is usually low anyway. Plus most people affected in that age group in SA have prior infections. We'll find out a lot more in the next couple of weeks.

Lab analysis suggests that a AZ + Pfizer combination doesn't just give you a great quantity of circulating antibodies, it gives you a really good set of T and B cells. It might be that it's better to mix and match but we won't know until we get real world results.
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What are your thoughts on those headlines we’ve seen this past week about hospitalisations doubling in South Africa? I’m assuming they’re clickbaity to an extent and there’s some big caveat.

Actually, were the source of those reports the same studies we saw that suggested these people were in hospital for other reasons and just happened to test positive for Covid during routine tests?
 
NYAS said:
What are your thoughts on those headlines we’ve seen this past week about hospitalisations doubling in South Africa? I’m assuming they’re clickbaity to an extent and there’s some big caveat.

Actually, were the source of those reports the same studies we saw that suggested these people were in hospital for other reasons and just happened to test positive for Covid during routine tests?
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If you read into you will find alot of these hospital cases are people in for other things that happen to find they are omicron positive when in the hospital.

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