SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Neo_Mufc said:
Are people really going to pay for LFT's? I just can't imagine many will.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60486323
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Luckily my work are now starting an LFT program where we can opt in to get free LFT tests fortnightly. However, if not, I would still pay. I go to my in laws for dinner every Sunday and my father in law is highish risk. I don’t see jamming a stick up my nose for a few seconds much of a hardship to keep him even a bit safer. Same with masks, I’ll probably still continue to wear mine on public transport and crowded spaces, even when people look at me like a weirdo
 
Neo_Mufc said:
Are people really going to pay for LFT's? I just can't imagine many will.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60486323
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We’ve been paying for them in Ireland from day one. And it hasn’t stopped them being used in huge numbers. I do think the removal of masks/restrictions means they’ll be used a lot less now. Or indeed, not used at all.
 
Rhyme Animal said:
Exactly. It just baffles me that they get away with it - time and time again… you’d think there’d be absolute uproar.

Turkey’s voting for (or at least, accepting) Christmas.

It just makes me so seethingly angry tbh. How such despicable people can be elected to lead in this day and age is beggar’s belief.
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But how else can you claim you were the first to beat Covid?

It's going to create a second class of citizen who cannot get vaccinated or are otherwise vulnerable.
 
Bloody hell it’s finally got us! Partner tested positive on LFT this morning. So far I’m negative. Minimal symptoms so far, she’s got a mild headache and a bit of a stuffy nose and I’m feeling a bit run down (despite negative test). Regardless of what Boris says, we WFH so will be isolating although if I am still negative and symptomless, I’ll go for some long walks out in the air.
 
Come down with it again, just as we're supposed to be all over it.

Had Delta in October and this version is nowhere near the experience that was. Sore-ish throat and general blur but that's all.

Work is insisting I treat it more seriously that the gov would lead us to believe. Only going in after 2 consecutive negative tests from day 5 onwards, if not do the full 10 day slog.

Imagine a lot of work places will insist on the same in spite of the new rules. Makes sense too given how quickly this variant can spread, especially if - like ours - we need to be in full-time.
 


Saw this distancing, and the Macron table, and the reports of him being isolated...Obviously Putin is personally paranoid.
Also clearly, Russian covid policy has been a massive failure.

Did Putin's personal paranoia affect their policy, or was it distancing for him and not for the people?
 
Not sure if anyone could recall, but almost one year ago I said those suboptimal vaccines/testing kits would be the major obstacles to end this pandemic. Now, it comes back to haunt us in Hong Kong.
 
Michael Osterholm i remember said this early on during the pandemic. It was too good a virus to be man made.
 
hmchan said:
Not sure if anyone could recall, but almost one year ago I said those suboptimal vaccines/testing kits would be the major obstacles to end this pandemic. Now, it comes back to haunt us in Hong Kong.
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The pandemic is ending one way or the other. Its not going to happen all at once but gradually countries will just live with the pandemic.

Some like the UK are opting to rip the band-aid off while others will slow transition out of pandemic measures.
 
hmchan said:
Not sure if anyone could recall, but almost one year ago I said those suboptimal vaccines/testing kits would be the major obstacles to end this pandemic. Now, it comes back to haunt us in Hong Kong.
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Unless vaccination rates have changed dramatically there over the last couple of months, HK would have a massive issue once covid hit, whichever vaccine it used. The highest risk group (the 60+) didn't seem to get nearly high enough percentage take-up, during the initial vaccine rollout.
 
horsechoker said:
The pandemic is ending one way or the other. Its not going to happen all at once but gradually countries will just live with the pandemic.

Some like the UK are opting to rip the band-aid off while others will slow transition out of pandemic measures.
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Unfortunately, we can't choose to live with the pandemic because the great President Xi insists in "dynamic zero-COVID" strategy. Next month we are going to spend billions of dollars to conduct compulsory testing on the 7m population, 3 tests per citizen.
 
jojojo said:
Unless vaccination rates have changed dramatically there over the last couple of months, HK would have a massive issue once covid hit, whichever vaccine it used. The highest risk group (the 60+) didn't seem to get nearly high enough percentage take-up, during the initial vaccine rollout.
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The recent vaccination rate is as follow:

Age Group/Rate/Rate Receiving CoronaVac
60-69/86.65%/50.48%
70-79/76.2%/50.14%
80+/47.85%/36.44%

I'm not sure if these vaccination rates are high enough, but a larger problem is CoronaVac offers little to no protection, and most elderly chooses to take this vaccine. Many show no seroconversion and very high viral load even after 3 recent doses of CoronaVac, and of course result in severe cases and deaths.
 
hmchan said:
The recent vaccination rate is as follow:

Age Group/Rate/Rate Receiving CoronaVac
60-69/86.65%/50.48%
70-79/76.2%/50.14%
80+/47.85%/36.44%

I'm not sure if these vaccination rates are high enough, but a larger problem is CoronaVac offers little to no protection, and most elderly chooses to take this vaccine. Many show no seroconversion and very high viral load even after 3 recent doses of CoronaVac, and of course result in severe cases and deaths.
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Those rates are pretty disastrous - the US have "only" managed 85% in their over 75s, and that's been a massive problem for them .

Countries like the UK, Denmark, Spain, Ireland are well over the 95% mark (pushing 100% in most areas) in these older groups. That immunity gap means massive potential hospitalisations/deaths as the infection rate rises - even with the Omicron variant.

For HK you'd be looking at something worse than the US ratios, given the lack of immunity (vaccine induced or from past infection) in the most vulnerable. You can get an idea of how much the vaccines and boosters have mattered in this Twitter thread.
 
jojojo said:
Those rates are pretty disastrous - the US have "only" managed 85% in their over 75s, and that's been a massive problem for them .

Countries like the UK, Denmark, Spain, Ireland are well over the 95% mark (pushing 100% in most areas) in these older groups. That immunity gap means massive potential hospitalisations/deaths as the infection rate rises - even with the Omicron variant.

For HK you'd be looking at something worse than the US ratios, given the lack of immunity (vaccine induced or from past infection) in the most vulnerable. You can get an idea of how much the vaccines and boosters have mattered in this Twitter thread.
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Yes it's pretty disastrous compared to the countries you have mentioned, but given the resistance to vaccines among the local uneducated elderly, 75-85% has already been quite remarkable. Different regions have different sociopolitical backgrounds, and you can't always expect leading European countries can be easily matched elsewhere. What worries me is that most of the elderly here receive a useless vaccine, meaning the actual vaccination rate drops to 25-35%. To be honest I don't think much thing can be done right now, just sit tight and wait for the peak to approach.
 
I've had a sort throat the last few days, no other symptoms. Up until today antigens were coming back negative.

But I just did 2 antigens today and both had the T line, but it's very faint. I'm guessing that doesn't matter and a positive is a positive? Just wish it would be bloody clearer so it was immediately obvious.
 
Anyone else plagued with a dry cough a month after having omicron? Legitimately been 31 days and the cough comes in attacks through the day, it's not like I'm coughing all day. Not once has any mucus or phlegm come up it's just dry. 28 years old an a non smoker.
 
Massive Spanner said:
I've had a sort throat the last few days, no other symptoms. Up until today antigens were coming back negative.

But I just did 2 antigens today and both had the T line, but it's very faint. I'm guessing that doesn't matter and a positive is a positive? Just wish it would be bloody clearer so it was immediately obvious.
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RIP
 
Raoul said:
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I like Ridley and what he writes is both interesting and makes sense. However, I think it is far from proven that airborne viruses universally get milder and others don't (so does he when you read the final paragraph). It isn't that I think he is wrong about Delta getting a boost from being spread in packed hospitals, whereas milder illness remain in home isolation. That is a selection factor for sure. However, random mutations are the source of new variants after which selection determines if they become the dominant variant (of which behaviour like hospital/no hospital is a part). Overall fitness will simply favour the variant that spreads/reproduces the best. Low lethality will favour a virus but if it kills slow enough the increased transmissibility might still give a greater fitness benefit. In other words a new variant could replace Omicron even if it was a bit more virulent and much more infectious, as there would be an overall selection pressure favouring the new variant. Of course a less virulent and more infectious variant could outcompete both but selection can only act of what there is to act upon.

I guess the next couple of years may tell us if the selection pressures of hospitalising the most sick (which of course we had to do) has slowed an inevitable decline in covid virulence. I'm not convinced but I hope I'm wrong.

Matt Ridley said:
Yet here surely there is a worrying lesson about the past two years. In the weird world of lockdown, severe strains of Covid were favoured by selection. If you tested positive but felt fine you were told to stay at home. If you fell badly sick you went to hospital, where you gave your illness to healthcare workers and other patients. So mutants that were more infectious, such as alpha and delta, paid no penalty for being just as virulent, maybe more so. The natural evolution of Covid into just another mild cold was therefore possibly delayed by at least a year.

Of course, the idea that only respiratory viruses evolve to become milder is just a theory and needs to be challenged. The continuing virulence of direct-contact diseases such as measles and smallpox needs explaining, for example. But it is unforgivable for official advisers at Nervtag to be ignorant of the theory. Send for some Darwinians, Boris!
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Wibble said:
I like Ridley and what he writes is both interesting and makes sense. However, I think it is far from proven that airborne viruses universally get milder and others don't (so does he when you read the final paragraph). It isn't that I think he is wrong about Delta getting a boost from being spread in packed hospitals, whereas milder illness remain in home isolation. That is a selection factor for sure. However, random mutations are the source of new variants after which selection determines if they become the dominant variant (of which behaviour like hospital/no hospital is a part). Overall fitness will simply favour the variant that spreads/reproduces the best. Low lethality will favour a virus but if it kills slow enough the increased transmissibility might still give a greater fitness benefit. In other words a new variant could replace Omicron even if it was a bit more virulent and much more infectious, as there would be an overall selection pressure favouring the new variant. Of course a less virulent and more infectious variant could outcompete both but selection can only act of what there is to act upon.

I guess the next couple of years may tell us if the selection pressures of hospitalising the most sick (which of course we had to do) has slowed an inevitable decline in covid virulence. I'm not convinced but I hope I'm wrong.
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That Ridley quote is pretty stupid. Blaming “the weird world of lockdown” for very sick people going to hospital and not very sick people staying at home. That has feck all to do with lockdowns and everything to do with basic common sense. What’s he suggesting as an alternative? Send all the sniffles into hospital and manage severe respiratory failure at home? Great idea.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
That Ridley quote is pretty stupid. Blaming “the weird world of lockdown” for very sick people going to hospital and not very sick people staying at home. That has feck all to do with lockdowns and everything to do with basic common sense. What’s he suggesting as an alternative? Send all the sniffles into hospital and manage severe respiratory failure at home? Great idea.
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He loves him a controversial position or two but then comes back to the science eventually. He also doesn't mind speculating beyond the data to sell lots of books from time to time either.
 
Wibble said:
He loves him a controversial position or two but then comes back to the science eventually. He also doesn't mind speculating beyond the data to sell lots of books from time to time either.
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I’ve read the whole thing. It’s all more or less as dumb as the bit you quoted. He seems to categorise measles as a “direct contact” virus that is somehow categorically different to SARS-CoV-2. This is bollox. They’re both spread the same way.

Well, I say “dumb” but I don’t think he’s stupid. His agenda is clear as day though. Even if you didn’t know where the piece was published.
 
With the removal of the mask mandate in Ireland, very odd to go into shops and see maybe half of the people without masks. It’ll go back to being completely normal soon enough, I’m sure, but it’s going to really impact on my ability to be an antisocial cnut.
 
Trying to find a chart I saw with regards to how long you expect someone to be infectious for as I'm currently the only one in my house who is negative.

My mum tested positive 7 days ago and still tested positive today. My brother and dad tested positive on Saturday, so are likely still positive and infectious now. At what point are they likely to be okay so I can stop wearing a mask inside the house and avoid them?
 
Brophs said:
With the removal of the mask mandate in Ireland, very odd to go into shops and see maybe half of the people without masks. It’ll go back to being completely normal soon enough, I’m sure, but it’s going to really impact on my ability to be an antisocial cnut.
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It’s odd, isn’t it? Feels like you’re being silently judged by whoever makes the opposite decision to you about wearing a mask. I’m masking up in shops to avoid that.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
It’s odd, isn’t it? Feels like you’re being silently judged by whoever makes the opposite decision to you about wearing a mask. I’m masking up in shops to avoid that.
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I thought it’d be like that but either I’ve just ignored it or it was just my imagination! I just walk around feeling much freer with it off, no judgment, for the last month or so it felt pretty foolish so I don’t judge anyone for it now, but I just kind of think…you’re going to really enjoy not having to do that soon. I know some people will still feel more vulnerable after that point, but I’m sure most will just think…it’s nice seeing people’s faces again. The world feels friendlier.
 
Brwned said:
I thought it’d be like that but either I’ve just ignored it or it was just my imagination! I just walk around feeling much freer with it off, no judgment, for the last month or so it felt pretty foolish so I don’t judge anyone for it now, but I just kind of think…you’re going to really enjoy not having to do that soon. I know some people will still feel more vulnerable after that point, but I’m sure most will just think…it’s nice seeing people’s faces again. The world feels friendlier.
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Yeah, I’m being completely irrational. I think it’s just because it’s so new. I’m sure fewer and fewer people will wear masks from now on. My climbing gym removed the mask requirements about a month ago and for the first couple of weeks almost everyone kept them on. Now almost nobody does. And yeah, it’s so much nicer being able to see faces. It instantly feels like a friendlier place.
 
saivet said:
Trying to find a chart I saw with regards to how long you expect someone to be infectious for as I'm currently the only one in my house who is negative.

My mum tested positive 7 days ago and still tested positive today. My brother and dad tested positive on Saturday, so are likely still positive and infectious now. At what point are they likely to be okay so I can stop wearing a mask inside the house and avoid them?
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My wife tested positive 8 days ago and is still positive. I am still testing negative , I look after her mum and dad and he has got alzheimers and sleep apnea as well as being 82 years old so I have been wearing a mask and only sitting outside when I am at their house . Would be nice to know how long she is likely to be testing positive and how likely she is to pass it on. She is still coughing and feeling rough too. It wouldn`t concern me too much except for the issue with her mum and dad as he can be quite hard work for my mother in law .
 
Pogue Mahone said:
It’s odd, isn’t it? Feels like you’re being silently judged by whoever makes the opposite decision to you about wearing a mask. I’m masking up in shops to avoid that.
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Tbh, for us it’s less about the judgement side of things and more that we have kids in crèche. We’ve probably got a fair chance of passing it on if one of them does pick it up so I guess we’ll keep wearing it in the short term anyway. Plus you can mouth the word “cnut” if someone does something annoying in public.
 
saivet said:
Trying to find a chart I saw with regards to how long you expect someone to be infectious for as I'm currently the only one in my house who is negative.

My mum tested positive 7 days ago and still tested positive today. My brother and dad tested positive on Saturday, so are likely still positive and infectious now. At what point are they likely to be okay so I can stop wearing a mask inside the house and avoid them?
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djembatheking said:
My wife tested positive 8 days ago and is still positive. I am still testing negative , I look after her mum and dad and he has got alzheimers and sleep apnea as well as being 82 years old so I have been wearing a mask and only sitting outside when I am at their house . Would be nice to know how long she is likely to be testing positive and how likely she is to pass it on. She is still coughing and feeling rough too. It wouldn`t concern me too much except for the issue with her mum and dad as he can be quite hard work for my mother in law .
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There is no one size fits all answer here. If someone is still coughing and feeling rough 8 days after testing positive there’s a good chance they’re still contagious. Somebody else who is feeling absolutely fine just 4 days after their first positive test is a lot less likely to be a risk.

If you need to be really careful all you can do is keep doing daily antigen tests and wait for that first negative.
 
I’m genuinely pleasantly surprised by how many are still using masks around here
 
hmchan said:
Yes it's pretty disastrous compared to the countries you have mentioned, but given the resistance to vaccines among the local uneducated elderly, 75-85% has already been quite remarkable. Different regions have different sociopolitical backgrounds, and you can't always expect leading European countries can be easily matched elsewhere. What worries me is that most of the elderly here receive a useless vaccine, meaning the actual vaccination rate drops to 25-35%. To be honest I don't think much thing can be done right now, just sit tight and wait for the peak to approach.
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South America and Central Asia have heavily used the same vaccine. Their omicron waves don't seem to be any different from the west's.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
There is no one size fits all answer here. If someone is still coughing and feeling rough 8 days after testing positive there’s a good chance they’re still contagious. Somebody else who is feeling absolutely fine just 4 days after their first positive test is a lot less likely to be a risk.

If you need to be really careful all you can do is keep doing daily antigen tests and wait for that first negative.
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Thanks Pogue, thats pretty much what I thought , I`ve been airing on the cautious side just cos of the age of her mum and dad but don`t want to stay away and isolate them either. Thankfully we`ve got glorious sunshine so we have been sat in their garden looking out at the Irish sea.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
There is no one size fits all answer here. If someone is still coughing and feeling rough 8 days after testing positive there’s a good chance they’re still contagious. Somebody else who is feeling absolutely fine just 4 days after their first positive test is a lot less likely to be a risk.

If you need to be really careful all you can do is keep doing daily antigen tests and wait for that first negative.
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Cheers mate, they are all still coughing from time to time but generally feeling fine. Keep away and do daily LFTs to continue.
 
My wife tested positive last week and today is her day 10 of isolating (still need to do this in NI) - it's also the first day her lateral flow has come up negative. Unfortunately I had a bit of a scratchy throat last night and it's got slightly worse today, took a lateral flow this morning and had a very, very faint line on it. Went and got a PCR done this afternoon so will probably know tomorrow that I've got it. Can hardly be anything else as I haven't really left the house in the past week. Gutted as I was due to meet friends for a day in the pub on Saturday and hadn't been out socially in months.
 
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