The chase for 4th place (not top 4)

Klopper76 said:
I saw that Arsenal have three games in hand then I checked who they were against:

Tottenham (a)
Chelsea (a)
Liverpool (h)

I’m not sure they’ll get anything out of those. Maybe Spurs.
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I don’t rate Arsenal but this is a daft way to look at it. Who the ‘games in hand’ are against at the current stage of the season is irrelevant. Apart from City, Norwich and Burnley they still have to face every other team once.

United with 13 games left still have to face all other top 6 teams, most of them away. So if anything Arsenal have a far kinder schedule left given they’ve played City twice.
 
Anyone who can put a decent 10 game spell together will get there, but none of them have the consistency. United have the most star power, but arsenal and spurs should fancy themselves. Not sure if West Ham and wolves will last the distance.

Definitely hoping spurs and United can be motivated against city.
 
We need to put a run of wins together and I don't think we are capable of this atm.
We are just scraping through games where we get a point, so expecting a run of wins is like expecting the sun to shine every day of winter here.
 
Some momentum is required to reach 4th. Are Utd starting to click? Great result yesterday and Ronaldo is back in the goals. Positive signs for Utd.
 
Klopper76 said:
I saw that Arsenal have three games in hand then I checked who they were against:

Tottenham (a)
Chelsea (a)
Liverpool (h)

I’m not sure they’ll get anything out of those. Maybe Spurs.
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This point has been mentioned lots of times. All 3 teams have to play these games anyway, (replace Chelsea for City for Spurs), so even if these are Arsenal's 3 games in hand, it takes them out the remaining fixtures for the season that others have to play anyway.
 
smi11ie said:
Some momentum is required to reach 4th. Are Utd starting to click? Great result yesterday and Ronaldo is back in the goals. Positive signs for Utd.
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I feel this will happen when any of them get a good result.. suddenly momentum shifted.

United didn't play that well yesterday, took Ronaldo to bail them out, but maybe that's the difference.
 
DJBillRemfry said:
Any one of the five teams could make this; none are in very good form and many of the games in hand are against each other or obdurate teams like Brighton who seem to draw with everyone.

It's going to be about the team that suddenly hits form for ten on the spin.
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Health too. If Antonio plays every game you have a real shot. If he misses even 3-4 I'd say nah, for instance. Same for us and Bruno.
 
GoonerBear said:
This point has been mentioned lots of times. All 3 teams have to play these games anyway, (replace Chelsea for City for Spurs), so even if these are Arsenal's 3 games in hand, it takes them out the remaining fixtures for the season that others have to play anyway.
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I think you play 4 teams that we don't, we also still have play City who you don't.

So the 'games in hand' are effectively 3 of these:

Newcastle
Villa
Southampton
West Ham

I think you'll be comfortable in 4th in the end.
 
What a bonkers season.

Somehow everyone is still chasing 5th instead of 4th.
 
Leftback99 said:
I think you play 4 teams that we don't, we also still have play City who you don't.

So the 'games in hand' are effectively 3 of these:

Newcastle
Villa
Southampton
West Ham

I think you'll be comfortable in 4th in the end.
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You look at them in the past and think they would be favourable fixtures, but it just seems every fixture is a potential banana skin now. All 4 games away from home if I'm not mistaken, Villa under Gerrard, look at Southampton the past few weeks, West Ham are in the top 4 hunt and I believe Newcastle at St James Park is the final game of the season and they might need a win to survive.

It's why I think all clubs will go through the weekly roller-coaster of getting a good result & being almost favourite for top 4, to getting a poor result and being written out it.
 
Hastar said:
Without the distraction of Europe and domestic cups, if Arsenal don't get fourth now then Arteta deserves to be sacked.

Knowing how their board functions, he won't.
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Think Arteta will keep his job if Arsenal finish in top 6, but yeah it won't really be a successful season if they don't finish 4th considering things you mentioned.

smi11ie said:
Some momentum is required to reach 4th. Are Utd starting to click? Great result yesterday and Ronaldo is back in the goals. Positive signs for Utd.
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It looked like we were perhaps starting to click after beating Brentford in January, then followed it with 2 draws before beating Brighton yesterday. If we can get more consistent, 4th place is ours but difficult to see it with this team.
 
Reapersoul20 said:
3rd place is happening.
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It is going to look better than it is while we miss games due to winning the Club World Cup and the upcoming cup game against Liverpool. I think we are about to go on a run of league game wins and we have a pretty easy finish of games.
 
The situation with the games in hand is utterly ridiculous really. You have to expect Arsenal will get a few 3 game week/10 day schedules as right now you have United playing 4 times (+ another in Europe) whilst Arsenal play once!
 
Hastar said:
Without the distraction of Europe and domestic cups, if Arsenal don't get fourth now then Arteta deserves to be sacked.

Knowing how their board functions, he won't.
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He's been given a target to get back into Europe this season, and if he achieves that target then why would they sack him?

Just because some other clubs are struggling and there is a chance to accelerate the process by finishing top 4 earlier than thought, doesn't mean that you undo your planning and strategy if he doesn't get what would have been seen as an over achievement at the start of the season.
 
BorisManUtd said:
Think Arteta will keep his job if Arsenal finish in top 6, but yeah it won't really be a successful season if they don't finish 4th considering things you mentioned.
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No chance Arteta will be sacked if Arsenal finish in top 6. As long as the board see improvement in table standing and the game play of the team Arteta will be fine. Arteta of course the same as other manager, he has his own deliverables to the management this season. The board has backed him for the last couple seasons to build his authority in the dressing room and they won't give up on him easily. So far it is crystal clear no player is bigger than the head coach/manager in Arsenal.
 
GoonerBear said:
He's been given a target to get back into Europe this season, and if he achieves that target then why would they sack him?

Just because some other clubs are struggling and there is a chance to accelerate the process by finishing top 4 earlier than thought, doesn't mean that you undo your planning and strategy if he doesn't get what would have been seen as an over achievement at the start of the season.
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People here just like to move the goalposts in unreasonable ways so they can shit on Arteta.

There is no way he gets sacked if he makes top six. I'm not sure he gets sacked even if we finish 7th. Josh Kroenke clearly loves Arteta and is all in on the strategy of building around youth.

I think finishing 4th is much more important to supporters than it is to the club itself. It would be nice but nobody expected it going into the season and certainly nobody at the club has been counting on it financially. The difference between CL and EL is probably around 50m which isn't chicken feed but its not this massive gamechanger that people sometimes make it out to be. We saved nearly half that amount in future salary just by cutting ties with Auba.
 
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matsdf said:
Are people actually believing Arsenal can finish 4th?
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Well, points wise they're best placed. 4 points behind us with 4 games in hand is enough to at least level with us (next is a game game vs newly promoted team).
 
matsdf said:
Are people actually believing Arsenal can finish 4th?
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If the teams around them keep dropping points, it can happen. Man Utd can separate themselves from the chasing pack, but I cant see the rest being consistent.
 
matsdf said:
Are people actually believing Arsenal can finish 4th?
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All teams from 4th to 8th place at the moment have the same chance and there are still many games to play. They need to earn it in the field. it doesn't matter if people believe it or not. If you believe Man Utd will get 4th that is fine. I don't really bother personally if Arsenal get 4th or not. CL to Arsenal is just more money. No one will join arsenal to win CL anyway.

Wenger was right back in 2012 said 4th place is a trophy.
 
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GoonerBear said:
He's been given a target to get back into Europe this season, and if he achieves that target then why would they sack him?

Just because some other clubs are struggling and there is a chance to accelerate the process by finishing top 4 earlier than thought, doesn't mean that you undo your planning and strategy if he doesn't get what would have been seen as an over achievement at the start of the season.
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I am not an Arsenal fan, so excuse me. I am surprised that the expectations are so low from him, especially with the hefty investment in the summer.

It's a lot to ask him to break into the top three, but I thought asking for a top four finish was realistic. Guess I am wrong.
 
Hastar said:
I am not an Arsenal fan, so excuse me. I am surprised that the expectations are so low from him, especially with the hefty investment in the summer.

It's a lot to ask him to break into the top three, but I thought asking for a top four finish was realistic. Guess I am wrong.
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With this logic Man Utd should challenge for title every season for their wages and transfer spending.
 
Does anyone remember this was the season we were to challenge? Seems like a long time ago while sitting same points off top as the relegation zone
 
Arsenal finishing top 4 :lol: That would be hillarious
 
ti vu said:


Conte throwing in the towel already, or it's a trap?
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Its a disaster in waiting him and Levy. It wont be long before complaints about transfers happen with him. Seemed a really transfer "needy" manager with us. But i still think he is awesome.
 
I'm comfortable with the idea of finishing outside the top four as long as we finish in the European places. Champions league will be too early for us, we'll probably go out in the group stage and this team can definitely win the Europa league leaving us with about a 20m hit financially for missing out. Something we can absorb . The biggest risk is if Saka and Saliba don't sign extensions as we're not in the CL and the small amount of difficulty added in attracting better players.
 
Hastar said:
I am not an Arsenal fan, so excuse me. I am surprised that the expectations are so low from him, especially with the hefty investment in the summer.

It's a lot to ask him to break into the top three, but I thought asking for a top four finish was realistic. Guess I am wrong.
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They don't have a quality partner for Partney and the young defence (plus Ramsdale) has come together well and Saka, Smith-Rowe and Martinelli all look really promising at the moment. He's playing the youngest team in the league. I'd be shocked if they fire him for finishing 6th. They'll buy a #9 and a CM (Xhaka will leave) and then next season there will be real expectation in the form of 4th place or a Europa League run or a cup.
 
Hastar said:
I am not an Arsenal fan, so excuse me. I am surprised that the expectations are so low from him, especially with the hefty investment in the summer.

It's a lot to ask him to break into the top three, but I thought asking for a top four finish was realistic. Guess I am wrong.
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I suppose the expectations were so low partly because of Arsenal's poor performance the previous season, so on the surface you could say Arteta has done a good job on lowering expectations.

However, it runs a bit deeper than that. There was an understanding that an overhaul needed to take place over the next year or 2. That started off mainly with the goalkeeper and defence last summer. And will continue with the midfield and strikers this summer.

So although you would look for an improvement on the previous season to show that what you are doing is having some degree of success, it's difficult to demand that big improvement needed for top 4 with a clearly transitioning team. However, in saying that, considering the shit show of a start to last season and we got 61 points, I myself was looking for something around the 70 point mark that I though at the beginning of the season would have us in the conversation for top 4, now I think it would get you 4th place guaranteed.

Last season after 22 games we had 31 points, this season after 22 games we have 39, which is pretty close to the target I had set. So to get to the 68-70 point mark, we aren't needing an improvement in form, we just need to maintain what we have been doing over the past 12 months.
 
ThierryHenry14 said:
With this logic Man Utd should challenge for title every season for their wages and transfer spending.
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There's a vast difference between challenging for the title against two teams - especially City - who are setting an absurdly high bar and competing for top four alongwith midtable clubs punching above their weight - West Ham, LCFC last year - and top teams in transition - Spurs, Arsenal, United.

All you need is a good month or two of consistency to claim that fourth spot, something which LFC did last season - after looking like completely out of the running
and despite fielding a CB pairing of Williams and Phillips.

GoonerBear said:
I suppose the expectations were so low partly because of Arsenal's poor performance the previous season, so on the surface you could say Arteta has done a good job on lowering expectations.

However, it runs a bit deeper than that. There was an understanding that an overhaul needed to take place over the next year or 2. That started off mainly with the goalkeeper and defence last summer. And will continue with the midfield and strikers this summer.

So although you would look for an improvement on the previous season to show that what you are doing is having some degree of success, it's difficult to demand that big improvement needed for top 4 with a clearly transitioning team. However, in saying that, considering the shit show of a start to last season and we got 61 points, I myself was looking for something around the 70 point mark that I though at the beginning of the season would have us in the conversation for top 4, now I think it would get you 4th place guaranteed.

Last season after 22 games we had 31 points, this season after 22 games we have 39, which is pretty close to the target I had set. So to get to the 68-70 point mark, we aren't needing an improvement in form, we just need to maintain what we have been doing over the past 12 months.
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Good post.
Nice to see patience from a fan. Wish we see more of this at a lot of clubs.
I guess my perspective was largely driven by angry Arsenal fans on Twitter and my own limited knowledge of Arsenal's situation.
 
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ThierryHenry14 said:
With this logic Man Utd should challenge for title every season for their wages and transfer spending.
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Well, yes. We very much should.

The whole 'United are run terribly' thing? It's because we don't challenge despite the wages and transfer spending.
 
Arteta hasn't been given a free pass, fans have been very critical of him. The only reason he is getting more time is his work in cleaning the squad up is spot on. When Emery left, the squad was underperforming and the dressing room was toxic. Although the last winter window was underwhelming, the club has managed to clean up most of the deadwood and replace them with young and hungry players. Coming summer will be critical and will define the club's ambition, he will not get an easy season from fans next year with similar results.
 
footyfan019 said:
Arteta hasn't been given a free pass, fans have been very critical of him. The only reason he is getting more time is his work in cleaning the squad up is spot on. When Emery left, the squad was underperforming and the dressing room was toxic. Although the last winter window was underwhelming, the club has managed to clean up most of the deadwood and replace them with young and hungry players. Coming summer will be critical and will define the club's ambition, he will not get an easy season from fans next year with similar results.
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I agree. Go on to Arsenal Mania, or as @Hastar mentions, listen to the angry fans in Twitter, there's plenty not buying him at all. But yeah, 1 thing you can't argue with it that the club are doing a good job of a squad overhaul so far.

And I agree, this summer will give us another good idea of the clubs ambitions. And it might be that it takes another coach to come in and realise them. But I am glad the club are sticking with Arteta for the moment to see through the overhaul.
 
City
Pool
Chelsea
United
WHU
Spurs
Arsenal

I'll be back in 3 months to collect my winnings.
 
City
Pool
United
Chelsea
Arsenal
Spurs
WHU

I'll be back in 3 months to collect my winnings.
 
Pool
City
Chelsea
Arsenal
Man utd
Spurs
WHU

City CL winners

I'll be back in 3 months to collect my winnings.

Yes I am the ultimate doom monger
 
Man City just might help United by knocking out Spurs from this race for the Wenger Cup.
 
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