Bookies' odds are partly biased towards the outcomes on which the most money is bet .... so if a large number of biased United fans decide to lump money on United winning the title, then the odds henceforth offered will reduce sharply.
The Spurs thread
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Bookies' odds are partly biased towards the outcomes on which the most money is bet .... so if a large number of biased United fans decide to lump money on United winning the title, then the odds henceforth offered will reduce sharply.
Yep, I know this. However, I don't know too many United fans who think we're going to win the league next year, thus, I don't think this is happening. As such, I think it's a true reflection of what the experts feel are the chances of happening.
How so? I don't understand the conclusion. No offense meant, I don't know too much about how odds are created, but this sounds pretty far fetched.
Right. I see. You personally don't know too many such United fans, so on that basis you've concluded that not too many United fans across the UK have lumped money on United.
Sounds like a watertight case to me.
Well, experts (bookmakers) will make odds on what they think is likely to happen. Thus the market is created. Then, people will bet, putting money on the various teams etc. Thus the market fluctuates. As more money goes on a team, odds will shorten on that team etc.
Right ... as does your own personal "I think lots of United fans are betting, thus bringing in the odds". Exact same thing. I said "I don't THINK this is happening". At no point did I state it was a fact.
Looking at this site, it seems some bookies have Spurs ahead of United, others don't (I checked Paddy Power earlier). It also seems to state that Spurs is a more popular bet than United: http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/premier-league-2016-17/winner
With the squads as they are, Spurs look a sure bet to finish above us next year. But much can change.
It's going to be impossible to bridge the 4-point gap that's between us and Spurs.
That doesn't look like a "sure bet" at all.
Indeed. Their squad is very average outside a few star players. Good work ethic and system though.
Purely as an independent observer, I'd say that odds set by bookmakers now for next seasons title winners are also based upon ones title winning credentials.
Spurs haven't finished in the top 2 since 1963 and haven't won a league title since 1961. Maybe that will all change next season but given your end of season collapse and your gutless performance away to a team that was relegated when you only needed a point to finish second ,and moreover finish above your North London rivals for the first time in 21 years, I very much doubt the bookmakers are losing too much sleep fretting about the generous odds they're offering on your chances for next season.
What the hell was that caller smoking
Reminds me of the Spurs fans on here.
Meh. The league season is over and Spurs achieved their main objective, namely qualifying for the CL. This will ensure we keep our squad intact and boost funds.
Next season it's reasonable to expect further improvement from Spurs, given the young average age and another pre-season of coaching from Pochettino. There should also be enough spare money to make a couple of squad improvements even taking into account the need to fund the ongoing new-stadium construction and the ongoing further enhancement of our training centre.
Spurs fans IMO have plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the future.
Think they'll reasonably narrowly miss out of top four, next year, personally.
Which, if I was a Spurs fan, I'd be content with. If they continue to finish in European positions, with the occasional Champions League qualification, they're on to a good thing.
That said, anything can happen, after the season we've just seen, and they could be fighting Sunderland for the title...
Which, if I was a Spurs fan, I'd be content with. If they continue to finish in European positions, with the occasional Champions League qualification, they're on to a good thing.
That said, anything can happen, after the season we've just seen, and they could be fighting Sunderland for the title...
For the Spurs fans what position do you think needs most improvement? Down the middle they seem ok, maybe out wide?
Carroll and Mason are not adequate replacements for Dembele and Alli, their team fell apart when one of them wasn't playing.
Feck sake, if Robbie Savage batters you with logic, it's time to give the hell up.
To be truthful they are a team that is pretty solid, but quite unspectacular throughout (except Kane and potentially Alli). A top class signing in almost any position would help them (RB, LB, DM, AM, LW, RW, CF). Centre forward particularly as they are a mid table team if Kane gets injured.
I personally hope (as has been advocated by Spurs fans on here) that they overestimate their squad strength and end up with a few squad players only, to cover for the extra games they'll play; hoping that such a young squad is likely to improve and ignoring the fact that the league has been unbelievably weak at the top end this year.
We most need better squad cover/competition in midfield, because when Dembele and Alli are unavailable there's a big drop in the quality of replacements. So here we need to upgrade on Mason and Carroll (I've changed my mind a bit on Bentaleb, and now feel he's worth another chance to impress as cover for Dier/elsewhere in CM).
We also need another striker - someone who can both play if Kane is injured/needs resting and can play with Kane. There's some indications that Batshuayi may be on the cards.
'Out wide' we don't really play with wingers as such, so when Alli plays CAM I'm happy enough with Eriksen and Lamela to complete an attacking three behind Kane, which will leave Son, Chadli and N'Jie (and Batshuayi if he comes) as competition for these slots, which again I'm happy enough with.
Defensively we're OK ... and here I think Vertonghen will be under great pressure from Wimmer (who impressed this season) to retain his starting slot.
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The CL involves fewer games than the EL, albeit at more difficult level.
Concerning the positions you mention (RB, LB, DM, AM, LW, RW, CF), we don't need an upgrade on any of the first XI - it's improved quality we need for the cover/competition for some of these - especially for Kane and CM.
In any case, with a new stadium to fund it's unlikely we'll have enough spare money to sign a proven "top quality" player who might (?) be better than any of the current first XI.
The Champions League involves having to play your best team every game to avoid being embarrassed, a totally different ball game to the way you treated the Europa League (ie as a chance to play your fringe players).
Again I really hope your manager and board share your thoughts on not needing to improve any if those positions. Your full back positions are mediocre, your attacking positions apart from Kane are mediocre and you have very little cover in midfield if any of your 3 main midfielders are injured (two of which I think aren't Champions League quality to begin with, certainly not after the group stages).
I agree though that the money won't be available irrespective. Especially as I imagine salary capex will be concentrated on offering Kane a £7-8m a year deal and Alli a big increase also.
Do you not think the first XI needs strengthening? While you had a good season and players will improve together I think you will need to be a lot stronger to improve on this next season. When you look at the stats apart from Kane & Alli not a single player got more than 10 PL goals last season. If Kane gets injured or is in bad form who else in that squad is a reliable goal scorer?
I get that impression as well, apart from a few individually they're not top class but they play in a system that suits them and to be fair many of them have thrived in that. They stifle the other teams with their high intensity game and most teams will struggle with that. Atletico have shown that for a few years as well, not easy to play against but very demanding. They've struggled to cope with PL games after playing Europa midweek, the CL will be even harder. So like the two above have mentioned, probably need more depth.
If I were Pochettino I'd be getting depth by buying quality players that demote their current "decent" players to squad roles. The likes of Kante would relegate one of their decent but unspectacular midfielders to a squad role. Likewise a quality right or left back would put Rose/Walker into the position you'd expect them to be in a CL team - reliable backup.
That along with at least one goalscoring wide player, preferably two, who would take some of the pressure off Kane (Lamela, Erikson, Son, Dembele & Chadli as their main attacking outlets with 20 goals is worrying). If Kane or Alli get injured or hit a patch of bad form they're screwed, just look around the first couple of months of he season.
You spray the word 'mediocre' around far too easily. Mid-table is mediocre - Spurs finished in 3rd place.
Rose was voted by his fellow professionals the best LB in the Prem this season - yet according to you he's just 'mediocre'.
Walker - a former Young Player of the Year in the Prem - has had a good season and is deservedly in the England squad for this summer. But he's just 'mediocre' according to you.
You say our "attacking positions apart from Kane are mediocre": Alli plays as part of the attacking three behind Kane. Is he mediocre? Ditto Eriksen.
I'm fully aware that the CL is a step-up from the EL - and I've already spoken of the need to upgrade CM cover. But I flatly disagree that two of our first XI CMs - presumably you mean Dier and Dembele - "aren't Champions League quality to begin with": there are plenty of inferior CMs who'll be playing in the CL next season.
I'm not expecting Spurs to hold aloft the CL trophy next season. But Spurs are deservedly in the CL. How far we'll go depends to some extent on the luck of draw. I was widely told last time out that Spurs wouldn't make it out of the group stages ... but whatever happens this time around I don't think Spurs will be, as you put it, "embarrassed".
You get teams who don't win much, having these golden seasons, and then suddenly they all pop out of the woodwork, with the big hopes and talk.
Look forward to them being where they should be next year, 5th or 6th
Personally I think Spurs are favourites for the league next year and I don't see how anyone could possibly argue. Have lots of money because they haven't spent much. Have the best academy and scouting network around. Youngest team in the league and only going to get better.
When Leicester fall and Arsenal fail I don't see who can possibly usurp them as league leaders. Anything less is a failure imo
When Leicester fall and Arsenal fail I don't see who can possibly usurp them as league leaders. Anything less is a failure imo
Why would Arsenal fall below Spurs? Just for starters?
Bearing in mind they just had a season that enraged their own fans, while Tottenham had their best in living memory, and still didn't beat them?
And surely one of Chelsea, us, Liverpool and City at least will get their act together.
And this is presuming Leicester fall away like we all thought they'd fall away this season. But didn't.
I'd go outside top 4.
The evidence points elsewhere. Spurs only fell away after the title had gone. When everything mattered Spurs were ahead of Arsenal. Spurs have the best defenders, midfielders and attackers and they're only going to improve. And their net spend is nothing.
The recent trends are not favourable to the other "big" clubs and with managerial upheaval I doubt they will catch up with Spurs. Anything less than winners is a huge managerial failure
Spurs scored more league goals than Arsenal last season - in fact only Man. City scored more (2 more) than us. So the 10 goals-threshold is rather meaningless when lots of different players chipped in with goals, even if it was less than 10 in most cases. But we do need another striker, as I've said, and I'm pretty sure we'll get one.
To answer your question: no, I don't think the first XI needs strengthening. It's a settled XI, with a young average age, well-gelled together, and will collectively probably only get better next season with another pre-season of coaching under Poch and with the benefit of this season's experience under their belts.
It's the first XI cover/competition that most needs improving.
But all those teams listed had shit seasons, so not really a good comparable at all.
You say probably will get better, I can tell you for sure Arsenal and City will get better. So just hoping to keep the same first XI and hoping they get better is a risky strategy. Especially with the Big 4/5 clubs looking to invest heavily in their squads. You had the perfect storm this season, don't think it will be the same next season.