Title race/top 4 race

1. City/Liverpool - 85-90 points
2. Liverpool/City - 85-90 points
3. Chelsea - 80-85 points
4. United - 70-75 points
5. West Ham - 65-70 points
6. Spurs - 60-65 points
7. Arsenal - 60-65 points
 
Mark my words. Chelsea are not as great as they are mentioned. We will finish above Chelsea at third.
 
I think people are seriously underestimating West Ham now. The analytics models have United and West Ham very close now in terms of medium-term xG performance. As much as one was at home and the other was away, West Ham got a fully deserved win against Chelsea, whilst we hung on to mug a point.

There’s probably a good argument to be made that for months West Ham have been playing towards their ceiling, whilst United have been near their floor, but them having a 3-point and GD lead will be very handy.

United also have to overturn likely point deficits to Arsenal and Spurs once they have played their games in hand.

Whilst there have been positive signs, our performances under Carrick and Rangnick so far haven’t seen us blow any teams away, and we will drop plenty of points in games if can only deliver what we did against Arsenal and Palace.

I don’t think United finish top 4 in the league more than 40% of the time from here. That’s roughly what you get if you give United a 75% chance to finish above each of West Ham, Arsenal and Spurs independently.
 
TMDaines said:
I think people are seriously underestimating West Ham now. The analytics models have United and West Ham very close now in terms of medium-term xG performance. As much as one was at home and the other was away, West Ham got a fully deserved win against Chelsea, whilst we hung on to mug a point.

There’s probably a good argument to be made that for months West Ham have been playing towards their ceiling, whilst United have been near their floor, but them having a 3-point and GD lead will be very handy.

United also have to overturn likely point deficits to Arsenal and Spurs once they have played their games in hand.

Whilst there have been positive signs, our performances under Carrick and Rangnick so far haven’t seen us blow any teams away, and we will drop plenty of points in games if can only deliver what we did against Arsenal and Palace.

I don’t think United finish top 4 in the league more than 40% of the time from here. That’s roughly what you get if you give United a 75% chance to finish above each of West Ham, Arsenal and Spurs independently.
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West Ham will likely drop off with increasing fixture build up. As you said, they've played to their ceiling while we've played to our floor, and they have 3 points and +8 GD on us. If we match their results for the rest of the season except beat them at Old Trafford, we'll be level on points with them. Don't think it's much of a stretch to expect us to better their rest of season record, even if they've been good. The Christmas period is always a big one.

Arsenal and Spurs as well really haven't impressed yet. XPts wise for the season so far there is nothing to split United, Spurs and Arsenal, while United and Spurs actually have good coaches now so I think it's safe to assume Arsenal with Arteta will drop off. And then the great squad quality of United vs Spurs. We've been absolutely woeful with respect to our squad quality, and I expect to see a sharp turn around in results over the coming months. I don't see Arsenal, Spurs or West Ham with the capability to go on a huge run, while we absolutely have that, and I think we'll see it now. Our fixtures until the end of February:
  • Norwich (a)
  • Brentford (a)
  • Brighton (h)
  • Newcastle (a)
  • Burnley (h)
  • Wolves (h)
  • Villa (a)
  • West Ham (h)
  • Burnley (a)
  • Southampton (h)
  • Leeds (a)
  • Watford (h)
That's 12 games where we have to be the overwhelming favourites for each. Add Palace who we just beat and that's the 3 newly promoted sides, and the entire bottom half of the league last season apart from West Ham, and Leeds last year being 9th. That's a huge opportunity to both claw back the gap and open one of our own, as well as gain some confidence in our play heading into the business end of the season.
 
Liverpool have the look of a title-winning side this year. If that hell does become a reality, hopefully Klopp will use it as an excuse to feck off somewhere else.
 
Id be supprised if we make 70 points, i think 65 is more likely, so possibly a very close 4th/5th.
 
SouthernRedDev said:
Id be supprised if we make 70 points, i think 65 is more likely, so possibly a very close 4th/5th.
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We are on 24 now, 65 means 41 pts/23 games, that’s under 2 ppg which is extremely poor for a squad of Utd quality, we got that last season with Ole ball.

I expect 2.1-2.2 which will give us a total around 72-75 pts.
 
Ok, i am worried now. Yes, it is half of season but we are point less than Spurs and we have two games more than them. Plus we are dropping a lot of points in "easy" run of games. Not looking good.
 
The glimmer of hope is the battle 4 is always played out by inconsistent teams who are incapable of going on long winning runs and whose form is always all over the place. While that's still the case we're more than in with a chance. But we really do look like winning games is such a monumental effort right now that its going to be tough.
 
Judas said:
The glimmer of hope is the battle 4 is always played out by inconsistent teams who are incapable of going on long winning runs and whose form is always all over the place. While that's still the case we're more than in with a chance. But we really do look like winning games is such a monumental effort right now that its going to be tough.
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This is true, but it is not looking good. Normally Utd. might be fighting one or two teams for the 4th slot (or third) but this season there are about 6 teams on or around the same points as Utd. and some of those can be said to have had their season blip already e.g. Leicester and Arsenal & so may be pretty consistent in the 2nd half of the campaign. We can't expect all of the following to mess up: Leicester, Wolves, Spurs, Arsenal and West Ham. Utd. need to put together a run of victories in February/March, I think.

P.S. it is going to be complicated by the fact until the very end there will be teams with 'games-in-hand' due to covid - this will just increase the pressure, especially on those teams playing 'catch-up'.
 
Judas said:
The glimmer of hope is the battle 4 is always played out by inconsistent teams who are incapable of going on long winning runs and whose form is always all over the place. While that's still the case we're more than in with a chance. But we really do look like winning games is such a monumental effort right now that its going to be tough.
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West Ham have to either lose or draw today and then gotta beat both Brentford & them next week to fully punish it
 
croadyman said:
West Ham have to either lose or draw today and then gotta beat both Brentford & them next week to fully punish it
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WH will not manage to keep up. Our biggest problem is Tottenham. And potential 7 point gap between us and them is very bad thing at this point
 
On course for 61 points, at the moment.

It is mad that if West Ham win today, they will be 8 points clear of us in fourth. Tottenham could pull 7 away with 2 games in hand.

I think it will be very hard for us now to get top four with that many teams in the mix. Fortunately, Brighton don't have a consistent goal scorer or they would be in the mix also.
 
We would need close to title winning form from here on in to make top 4. Looking at our remaining fixtures, absolutely no chance.
 
Andycoleno9 said:
WH will not manage to keep up. Our biggest problem is Tottenham. And potential 7 point gap between us and them is very bad thing at this point
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I wouldn't be so sure of them falling away, agree that Spurs games in hand are a concern though. Still need to play that Burnley game along with Arsenal and Leicester on Wednesday.
 
I expect Arsenal,Spurs and probably 2 out of West Ham,Wolves, Leicester to finish ahead of us.

So around 8th.

The only chance of making top 4 is signing 1-2 CMs who hit the ground running like Bruno did.
 
Hope Spurs can get their games in hand out the way soon just to see how the table looks.

United still have a chance of top 4, it's normally team after team gifting the chance away to secure it, I'm sure they'll be many twists and collapses but we have to start picking up points soon, we've dropped 7 out of 9 against Newcastle, Wolves and Villa.

I wouldn't want to put a bet on any of these teams making it. There's quite a drop off from the top 3.
 
thegregster said:
I expect Arsenal,Spurs and probably 2 out of West Ham,Wolves, Leicester to finish ahead of us.

So around 8th.

The only chance of making top 4 is signing 1-2 CMs who hit the ground running like Bruno did.
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Yeah that's if our board allow it
 
If we do not buy anyone this month, we are not getting into top 4. We have already dropped a few points against lesser teams. I am scared to think about where we are in the table after the upcoming brutal 4-5 weeks.
 
Regardless of the midfield situation,
If bruno gets his last season form, things could change. Yesterday out of no where he scored 2 so anything can happen.

Luckily we have an inform DDG so just need one attacker to get us to top 4. Of late we are creating more chances which we aren’t converting to goals. Yesterday remember greenwood got 2 really good chances, elanga got 1 chance but couldn’t punish Villa. If we put pressure on teams with early goals like 2 or more at half time, ralf can make more us defensive shaped for remaining time.

I believe its not impossible and still achievable.
 
thegregster said:
I expect Arsenal,Spurs and probably 2 out of West Ham,Wolves, Leicester to finish ahead of us.

So around 8th.

The only chance of making top 4 is signing 1-2 CMs who hit the ground running like Bruno did.
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I doubt we will sign any CMs....let alone buying them AND they hit the ground running.
 
thegregster said:
I expect Arsenal,Spurs and probably 2 out of West Ham,Wolves, Leicester to finish ahead of us.

So around 8th.

The only chance of making top 4 is signing 1-2 CMs who hit the ground running like Bruno did.
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Finally some positive news this rotten season! It means we avoid the conference League
 
I don't see how we can get it done without something major happening within the team, we're in absolute shambles right now both on and off the pitch with DDG being the only player who can hold his head high. If anything we seem to just be getting worse the longer the season goes making teams fighting for relegation looking like they belong in the top 6. We lack both quality and fight at the moment and I'd be hesitant for us to beat just one of Spurs, West Ham, Arsenal and Wolves for 4th place, now we have to top all of them and that feels like asking way too much of this team.
 
At this point, it looks that we have more chance to catch Chelsea than Spurs. Who would know that Conte will lift Spurs this much in short period and that Chelsea will lose so much points in that same period
 
Title race back on.

City V Liverpool in April will be interesting.
 
I fecking hate we're in a top 4 fight again. Arsenal and Spurs still have it in their own hands
 
We look much balanced & organised, we will find the right blend eventually and ralf understands not to hold grudges & learns from mistakes, Chelsea spurs should be a draw today & let’s be honest lads it’s Tottenham so I feel we will be okay, could even go for third, positive stuff for united
 
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