I'm kidding of course. You'll smash Sheffield United and we'll lose to Man City and it'll be down to 2 points.
Top 4 Race 19/20 | duffer: "We [Chelsea] are getting 3rd. Despite what the lunatics in here think, Man United are not all that."
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
I'm kidding of course. You'll smash Sheffield United and we'll lose to Man City and it'll be down to 2 points.
Yeah in fairness I think i've looked at their fixtures too quickly, and went off the rating fantasy football gives them! All 2 and 3 for difficulty (and i had the 4 v Chelsea off the page)
Plenty of banana skins, but you'd worry Chelsea comes last day when chances are Chelsea are finished. But then same with us v Leicester last day.
It’s always like this. People love a meltdown. Very premature, though.
I expected a Chelsea win but i'm still a bit angry......i really watched the minutes 1-59 and 64-90 but during both Chelsea goals i was in the kitchen
It was the pathetic falling apart over about 2mins that was the annoying thing.
But noone expected anything from Villa.They're like a Sheff Utd goal threat, with a poor defence.
Nah. Chelsea fixtures:
- City (H)
- Leicester (A) FA CUP
- West Ham (A)
- Watford (H)
- Palace (A)
- Sheffield (A)
- Norwich (H)
- Liverpool (A)
- Wolves (H)
4 away games, against West Ham (17th), Palace (9th), Sheffield (7th), Liverpool (1st).
That's a hard fecking run. Keep in mind West Ham away is also a rivalry for them, but the 3rd easiest game for them. Palace away is a tough fixture as well, one that's common for both of us.
United on the other hand:
- Sheffield (H)
- Norwich (A) FA CUP
- Brighton (A)
- Bournemouth (H)
- Villa (A)
- Southampton (H)
- Palace (A)
- West ham (H)
- Leicester (A)
4 away games, against Brighton (15th), Villa (19th), Palace (9th) and Leicester (3rd).
Leicester away is tough, though on the last day of the season who knows what the situation is like (matches them against Wolves on the last day basically). Palace away is also tough, our 2nd hardest left, but again, common with the same fixture for them.
We couldn't ask for an easier fixture list, the easiest remaining in the league, while theirs is very difficult and on the other side of the spectrum.
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Yeah that's not any sort of distraction
Come on.Home or away seems irrelevant in a post-covid world.
Did the predictor thing (https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/), this is how it ended for me (last game of season put a draw between Leicester and United, with Chelsea beating Wolves).
Maybe so, I also fecked up anyway. You play City at home, not away. But goes both ways. General point was that I'd much rather avoid City and Liverpool altogether as both clubs are on a different level to the rest, with Leicester and Wolves I kinda put on the same level. Biggest game I'd say is an impact home or away is Palace away, which is equal for both of us, and a game I always hate (despite United having a good record there). Always seems like an upset ready to happen, while I feel like they roll over when we play them at home. West Ham away vs home as well I feel like is a decently big difference, with the rest not really mattering much home or away.
Anyway, if Chelsea avoids defeat in both of those big games, then I think you finish top 4. Assuming the expected results happen from those fixtures (United/Chelsea matching results against West Ham/Leicester or Wolves/Palace away), the tie breaker will just be what happens with Chelsea vs Liverpool and City. Tough ask though. But at the same time if both clubs go on a very good run, there's a chance both sneak in ahead of Leicester. All assuming City are allowed to play in the CL next year. If the ban is upheld, one might lose concentration and let Wolves sneak in.
With good reason. We've only finished inside the top 4 twice in the last 7 years.
You need to park easier/easiest talk especially for a group of players that lost to Palace (H) West Ham (A) Newcastle (A) Bournemouth (A) Watford (A) Burnley (H) plus the many silly draws this season.
I might add regardless of the opposition
this United team more often than not need to score first in games to win them. So starting Wednesday hopefully Man United score first v Sheffield United.
What's happening with Europa league? I think it's a more realistic way of us getting in at this point unfortunately. It's tough to say, we can really gel again
A points record will likely still be on offer for them. That's reason enough.
Nobody has european football before August. So it's really not an argument here.
Chelsea play City next, they are not winning that one. We'll probably decrease the gap in the next gameweek.
Beat Chelsea three times comfortably, we can't be that bad
A group of players, just that group happened to not have Bruno and a fit Pogba as part of it. Or some of them not having Martial or Rashford in addition to Bruno/Pogba. You swap Bruno and Pogba with Lingard and Pereira, and yeah, we're going to drop a lot of points, as those are garbage players in key positions. Straightforward.
If you think we're the same team right now as we were in mid January, or from October, or even the start of the season, then you're very much mistaken. We essentially added 2 world class midfielders to our team right now compared to what we had in the first half of the season, and that will show.
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Thanks. I think it will be upheld for next year. But yeah, cant plan for that.
Good analysis. You're right about the fixture lists.
But it's still a tough ask to gain 5 or 6 extra points over 8 games: requires us to be in top from, while Chelsea only pick up 50% of points available.
Especially when our side now has a reputation for not being able to comfortably beat bottom 10 teams.
Everything lies on Bruno/Pogba partnership to create chances for our forwards.
It’s funny how people are assuming a United win and Chelsea defeat midweek is the odds on scenario. Fivethirtyeight have the results at 72% and 48% likely respectively, which is 34.6% for both to happen.
Essentially only a third of the time do United head into the FA Cup weekend with a gap of two points with seven games to play. And that’s the best case scenario. A five point lead now is massive.
Essentially only a third of the time do United head into the FA Cup weekend with a gap of two points with seven games to play. And that’s the best case scenario. A five point lead now is massive.
Does 5th place still get CL?
I understand you want to be optimistic, but if i were a United fan, i wouldnt exactly be thrilled about the chances of top 4 now.
That said, a 5th place could well give you a CL spot.
That said, a 5th place could well give you a CL spot.
The most sense I've seen anybody talk in this thread. It'd be a 10/10 post if you had used Asian betting odds instead of 538.
Although to be fair they are almost identical in this case.I don't doubt Chelsea will lose plenty of points during their run in. I just think United will lose just as many, despite having an easier fixture list.
Questionable maths... Entirely the wrong way to use stats. But I guess if you want to go with that logic...
9 potential outcomes.
Utd 3, Chels 0 = 34.56%
Utd 3, Chels 3 = 20.88 %
Utd 3, Chels 1 = 16.56%
Utd 1, Chels 0 = 9.6%
Utd 1, Chels 3 = 5.8%
Utd 1, Chels 1 = 4.6%
Utd 0, Chels 0 = 3.84%
Utd 0, Chels 3 = 2.32%
Utd 0, Chels 1 = 1.84%
With 9 potential outcomes that can happen, 35% is actually quite a bit. By far the likeliest outcome. And it's not a roll of the dice or a situation where weighted averages really mean for much to randomize situations. It's a football game where the vast majority of the time, the better team just wins. City, is a much better football team than Chelsea. Especially a Lampard led Chelsea that is enjoyable to watch but can't defend worth shit and will attack naively against anyone. City and Liverpool will both pick them apart.
Anyway.. 5 point lead isn't much at all, and I'll say right now it is entirely due to how the fixtures have been spread out. We have an easy as feck fixture list, a list that most top half teams would pick up a good chunk of points, while they have a nightmarish run. 5 points is pretty much what the spread is, so I think it'll come down to 1 or 2 points either way, or goal differential. But it's a very even race right now, given the fixtures.
Conveniently you have omitted the absence of our best players for half of the season as a reason for our struggles.
Leicester could get drawn into it in my opinion. There squad isn’t as big as ours or Chelsea’s and with games coming super quick, a couple of injuries then all of a sudden they are looking behind them.
Not sure yet, City are appealing the ban so we'll have to wait and see. Best just to not think about it and aim for 4th.
It’s ours to lose, I think. Wolves could do it too, but Sheffield don’t have the firepower and Chelsea have a pretty tricky run in compared to others. Oh and Spurs are shite.
We were in good form, got some big players coming back from injury and we’ve got a relatively easy run in. Just need Chelsea to slip up soon.
We were in good form, got some big players coming back from injury and we’ve got a relatively easy run in. Just need Chelsea to slip up soon.
Yeah would be an absolute schoolboy error if any of us, Wolves, Chelsea, Sheff Utd or Spurs start thinking that way
If City win their appeal and don't get a ban then UEFA may as well scrap FFP and never bother going after anyone again. It will make them look completely toothless and humiliate them.
I'm doubtful, but who knows.
FFP was created mainly for clubs like Marseille, Trabzonspor, Dinamo Zagreb or Flora Tallinn so the rich clubs can get richer and to keep the power.
I was shocked about UEFA's 2-year-ban for Manchester City because there is obviously so much power behind the club and the UEFA is anyway corrupt.
I think we can catch Leicester and Chelsea. Not saying we will, but we're not that far behind Leicester and their fixtures aren't great. Just need to be within a couple of points at worst come the last game of the season and I'd fancy us.
I'm not even looking at United. I don't mean that in an arrogant way. I just think Chelsea would be better suited focusing on catching Leicester, who are only 3 points ahead now rather than focusing on staying ahead of United.
It would also mean that the likes of the Glazers would be forced to invest into their teams, least they fall further behind the likes of City & PSG (and lose their best players to either club). Hence why I hope City win their appeal (1).
(1) Because the alternative is seeing Liverpool dominate English Football, Real Madrid & Barcelona dominate European Football & United carrying on their "managed decline".
Let's be real, I doubt FFP would have emerged had Abramovich not bought Chelsea, Abu Dhabi not bought Man City & Qatar not bought PSG. Especially when the current setup of both (European) Domestic Football & Continential Football is working very well for the Established Clubs (Maybe not AC Milan & Inter Milan to be fair).
Do you think players think that way in terms of looking up and/or down? Or just a case of looking to get a result from each game and seeing where that gets them.
After the next set of fixtures we could quite easily be within two points of you again. Can't see you getting anything off City and we may put a poor Shefield United to bed.
Players are human so they're likely also looking at the league table calculating points based on hypothetical wins and losses, the same way the fans do.
Yeah, I mean I think it's inevitable that United close the gap to us in some way. I've already said I think Chelsea and United will squeeze into the top 4 in the end.
I'd prefer us and Chelsea in top 4 ahead of Leicester City so I could watch more Chelsea games in UCL if they progressed through to the round of 16 games and go further but Leicester City? Meh.
Leicester City's form in 2020 is not great, they seem to return to the same level as they were before the start of 2019/20, I think they're the most likely team to drop out of the top 4 rather than Chelsea.
Leicester City's form in 2020 is not great, they seem to return to the same level as they were before the start of 2019/20, I think they're the most likely team to drop out of the top 4 rather than Chelsea.