Top 4 race 2016/17

Update on the Financial times prediction model (as of yesterday) which seems to be pretty accurate (positions have barely changed since January)



Gives us a 21% chance of finishing top 4 and basically a shootout with Arsenal to see who finishes 6th.

Yesterday was crucial (if it wasn't obvious), based on this model our chances of top 4 reduced from 30%. Liverpool's moved from 56% to 75%.

Europa is our best shot at CL. Thursday is a big game.
 
Peanut Butter said:
Qualifying for the CL groups doesn't effect who the huge clubs sign.
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I think it certainly has an impact. If you're a huge club, you can get away with an occasional year out because top players will see it as an aberration, but if you miss a couple of years on the trot they might well start questioning whether you're the right destination for them.
 
abhayselvan said:
I think the top 3 will be Chelsea, City and Spurs. The last spot will be a dog race between us, Arsenal and Liverpool with each doing their best to not get into top 4. In the end, whoever fecks up the least will get in. Somewhat like what happened between us and City last season.
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Basically this.
 
Chelsea, City, Spurs and Liverpool is my prediction.
 
Kentonio said:
I think it certainly has an impact. If you're a huge club, you can get away with an occasional year out because top players will see it as an aberration, but if you miss a couple of years on the trot they might well start questioning whether you're the right destination for them.
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I am astounded that people say this regularly without any proof.
 
abhayselvan said:
I think the top 3 will be Chelsea, City and Spurs. The last spot will be a dog race between us, Arsenal and Liverpool with each doing their best to not get into top 4. In the end, whoever fecks up the least will get in. Somewhat like what happened between us and City last season.
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It's looking like this for sure. With our shite away form against "weak" teams and Utd dropping too many points at home maybe Wenger will manage to maintain that top 4 record.

I'm hopeful that if we can stay within touching distance going into May then games amongst the other top 4 hopefuls will be enough to help us over the line.
 
Spurs are simply better than us and I suspect will destroy as at their place
 
Kentonio said:
I think it certainly has an impact. If you're a huge club, you can get away with an occasional year out because top players will see it as an aberration, but if you miss a couple of years on the trot they might well start questioning whether you're the right destination for them.
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Absolute horse chod. Players move if the money is right 9 times out of 10. Chelsea fans should know this better than anyone.
 
Peanut Butter said:
Absolute horse chod. Players move if the money is right 9 times out of 10. Chelsea fans should know this better than anyone.
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He seems to have forgotten the only reason they are relevant in the league stakes since 2004ish is that they won the lottery a bit more than a decade ago. No wonder he can now sit on his toy horse with saddle heating and fart away.
 
I guess Europa League is the only realistic hope for Champions League, although it may prove to be more difficult than Getting into Top-4.
I now understand what was meant by (whoever said that) "United's squad is broken" and it will take more than one transfer windows to fix it.

We are absolutely toothless in front of goal, it is embarrassing and unacceptable.
 
abhayselvan said:
I think the top 3 will be Chelsea, City and Spurs. The last spot will be a dog race between us, Arsenal and Liverpool with each doing their best to not get into top 4. In the end, whoever fecks up the least will get in. Somewhat like what happened between us and City last season.
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If City win today then this is most likely to be the outcome.
Usually get over a bad result with a good night's sleep but yesterday's result is still hanging around like a bad smell.
Come on Moysey time to pay us back for a season of dross with a result over city.
 
adexkola said:
I am astounded that people say this regularly without any proof.
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No proof other than players regularly saying that playing CL football is hugely important to them? Oh and managers and owners regularly saying that getting into the CL is vitally important to ensure they can compete for the best players in the transfer market?
 
Kevin said:
He seems to have forgotten the only reason they are relevant in the league stakes since 2004ish is that they won the lottery a bit more than a decade ago. No wonder he can now sit on his toy horse with saddle heating and fart away.
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:lol:
 
Kevin said:
He seems to have forgotten the only reason they are relevant in the league stakes since 2004ish is that they won the lottery a bit more than a decade ago. No wonder he can now sit on his toy horse with saddle heating and fart away.
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No one saying money isn't one of the most important aspects, but you seem to have forgotten we were already in the CL before Abramaovich arrived. In fact it was rumoured to have been one of the key reasons he chose us.
 
Kentonio said:
No proof other than players regularly saying that playing CL football is hugely important to them? Oh and managers and owners regularly saying that getting into the CL is vitally important to ensure they can compete for the best players in the transfer market?
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Not to mention the fact that the vast majority of the best players play for CL clubs
 
Poor result yesterday but no way United are not finishing in the top 4. We're a better team than 4/5 of the teams above us, we just need to take more of the chances we create.
 
Kentonio said:
No one saying money isn't one of the most important aspects, but you seem to have forgotten we were already in the CL before Abramaovich arrived. In fact it was rumoured to have been one of the key reasons he chose us.
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He didn't choose you, nobody else wanted Putin's laundered money.

You were the only scumbags low enough to take it.
 
SkeppyRed said:
Poor result yesterday but no way United are not finishing in the top 4. We're a better team than 4/5 of the teams above us, we just need to take more of the chances we create.
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I'd have been inclined to agree up until yesterday. The reality is that we couldn't beat one of the worst sides in the division, at home, when they were down to ten men.

I actually fancy us to win the Europa, but this side doesn't score enough goals to finish in the top four.
 
SkeppyRed said:
Poor result yesterday but no way United are not finishing in the top 4. We're a better team than 4/5 of the teams above us, we just need to take more of the chances we create.
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Weird post seeing as we've been missing chances all season and its now March. Don't see it stopping until we get some new players in.
 
SkeppyRed said:
Poor result yesterday but no way United are not finishing in the top 4. We're a better team than 4/5 of the teams above us, we just need to take more of the chances we create.
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I agree. Its literally only fluffing easy chances that's holding us back.
3 points behind 4th with a game in hand. Why people are giving up is beyond me.
Liverpool being unable to adjust to teams finding them out or Arsenal suffering from an apparent civil war are bigger problems than Ibra missing a pen and Pogba miskicking from 3 yards out.
There is no standard here, its not passing a driving test where we are judged on certain criteria. We just have to finish above Arsenal and Liverpool who have larger hurdles in their attempt to string 2 wins together than we do.
Posters are more hung up on what's perceived to be easier v harder than the actual situation we have right now.
 
Kentonio said:
No proof other than players regularly saying that playing CL football is hugely important to them? Oh and managers and owners regularly saying that getting into the CL is vitally important to ensure they can compete for the best players in the transfer market?
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Examples?

On the second point, managers and owners crave the extra income, but that has nothing to do with my original point.
 
SkeppyRed said:
Poor result yesterday but no way United are not finishing in the top 4. We're a better team than 4/5 of the teams above us, we just need to take more of the chances we create.
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What does this even mean? Every fan likes to believe that his team is better than the ones above. News flash. We aren't. We are exactly where we deserve to be. Oh and Liverpool and Arsenal are shite as well. They are just a wee bit less shite than we are.
 
adexkola said:
Examples?

On the second point, managers and owners crave the extra income, but that has nothing to do with my original point.
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Does your own captain saying it count?

Rooney said:
"United are a massive club, but it depends on the player,” Rooney is quoted as saying by the Daily Mirror.

“When I joined, I said I wanted to join a club playing Champions League football.

“Obviously United still have a big pull in terms of the best players, but they will want to play Champions League football so it is important we qualify.”
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http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/...-qualification-vital-to-attract-10467933.html
 
As far as I'm concerned it's us, Liverpool, and Arsenal fighting for 4th. Chelsea, City and Spurs are all much better than us.
 
pixel said:
What does this even mean? Every fan likes to believe that his team is better than the ones above. News flash. We aren't. We are exactly where we deserve to be. Oh and Liverpool and Arsenal are shite as well. They are just a wee bit less shite than we are.
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I don't agree. I think we are better team than them and it'l show come the end of the season.
 
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Spurs took a big step towards top 4 today and made an on form Everton look poor. 3-0 would have been a fairer scorer tbh.
AndyJ1985 said:
As far as I'm concerned it's us, Liverpool, and Arsenal fighting for 4th. Chelsea, City and Spurs are all much better than us.
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Even if we win our 2 games this week (City) I think it'll be tight, the 3 games after that will decide for us Liverpool (h), Arsenal (a), Chelsea (a). If we come out of that with a 2 or 3 point cushion on 5th I'll start to relax. I think Spurs are almost home as they have very few tough games left. We have 4 or the top 6.
 
AXVnee7 said:
I don't necessarily agree with the point, but players are hardly going to come out and say I came for money are they? Rooney is also not the best example because he joined as a young player.

Di Maria for example made it sound like he was thrilled to come to United and was fulfilling a dream, when in reality he never wanted to come.
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How about Rio Ferdinand saying it just last night? Play from 3:30.

 
adexkola said:
No it doesn't. We obtained Pogba, Ibrahimovic and Mkhitaryan from CL qualifying clubs. Were you snubbed by any players because of no CL football this past summer? Spurs lost players the last time they were in the CL (Modric and Bale). Leicester didn't attract a slew of players looking to play in the CL last summer. And so on...
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You're picking individual exceptions and making it into the rule. If your own club legends say it and you don't believe them, I don't know what else will convince you.
 
We could as easily finish 8th as 4th this season, so many variables for us this season. On the wrong end of some poor officiating at the start of the season which killed our momentum. We've had multiple GK's having their best ever games against us. Multiple players having inexplicable brain farts leading to goals conceded. It's then been compounded by normally competent finishers missing open goals.

We've played some superb football in patches this season, no other team in the league would have been able to live with us. We are in a false position. We can obviously get some control over our lapses in defence & attack. It seems to be taking a bit longer than many of us expected though.
 
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Kentonio said:
How about Rio Ferdinand saying it just last night? Play from 3:30.

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The point still stands that Rio is not going to want to promote an image of players coming for money. I actually agree with your point, I just don't think the examples being used justify it though.

My personal opinion is that CL is important for us to attract the best, and we do indeed need to get back in there. But when we can offer the wages we do, the prestige and the gravity of Jose, it makes the dent a lot less. We managed to sign Falcao, Di Maria, Ibra, Pogba and Mkhitaryan all without CL footy. That is some going. But I agree with the point CL is important to players. There is no doubt these players will have at the time have been convinced they coming to be part of revival project that would see United back in the CL within a short timeframe, and getting back to the top quickly. It becomes more difficult to convince players that this is just a blip for a side that has dominated for so long, when you start dipping in and out Europe.
 
Kentonio said:
You're picking individual exceptions and making it into the rule. If your own club legends say it and you don't believe them, I don't know what else will convince you.
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You listed 2 examples against multiple examples I've shown, and you're making them the rule? That's not how exceptions work.

Thanks for further confirming that the notion of CL football as a major attraction is not based on anything substantial.
 
AXVnee7 said:
My personal opinion is that CL is important for us to attract the best, and we do indeed need to get back in there. But when we can offer the wages we do, the prestige and the gravity of Jose, it makes the dent a lot less. We managed to sign Falcao, Di Maria, Ibra, Pogba and Mkhitaryan all without CL footy. That is some going. But I agree with the point CL is important to players. There is no doubt these players will have at the time have been convinced they coming to be part of revival project that would see United back in the CL within a short timeframe, and getting back to the top quickly. It becomes more difficult to convince players that this is just a blip for a side that has dominated for so long, when you start dipping in and out Europe.
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Don't get me wrong, being a top club is a huge draw all in itself, and being a rich huge club even more. When you're competing against other rich and huge clubs though, things like being in the CL are likely to play a significant part, perhaps because the margins are so small. Of the players you listed there, only Pogba is in the category of 'player that everyone wants' and him being an ex-United player might muddy the waters there a bit. The others are good players, but it's not like you were fighting Real and Barca for them (as far as I know).
 
adexkola said:
You listed 2 examples against multiple examples I've shown, and you're making them the rule? That's not how exceptions work.

Thanks for further confirming that the notion of CL football as a major attraction is not based on anything substantial.
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Ok, now you're just being snarky. Your 'multiple examples' (Leicester, Spurs) were arguing against a point I never made. I never said CL qualification was the only thing that mattered or even the main thing. Obviously if you're choosing between a Chelsea or United not in the CL or a Leicester who are one year, then its a no brainer. Same with Bale and Madrid/Spurs.

As for Pogba, Ibrahimovic and Mkhitaryan, Zlatan is 35 years old for christs sake. He's scored a bundle of goals for you and fair play to him, but its not like every team in Europe was battering his door down. Mkhitaryan is a top player, and I'd have been very happy if we'd signed him, but again he wasn't exactly at the centre of a huge fight from all the top European clubs vying for his signiture. The only example you have provided so far that makes your case at all is Pogba, and apart from him being an ex-United player anyway, my point was about the dangers of continually missing out, not just missing an odd season, so even that doesn't support your case particularly.
 
Chelsea, Tottenham and City are slowly leaving the others behind, Chelsea are a dead cert anyway, Tottenham are now out of Europe as well and City seem to be clicking since January.
That leaves Arsenal, Pool and United fighting for the last spot, Liverpool certainly look like they've the easiest job but seeing how they've bottled it over and over against the minnows this season I wouldn't bet on them. Then there's Arsenals habit of always managing to finish top 4 although maybe this is the year where they finally go full meltdown. United definitely have the hardest job given that they'll most likely go far in the EL but they've also the best squad and the biggest depth quality wise.
My bet is Chelsea, City, Spurs and Arsenal with United fully focussing (and winning) on the EL come the semi-finals.
 
Kasper said:
Chelsea, Tottenham and City are slowly leaving the others behind, Chelsea are a dead cert anyway, Tottenham are now out of Europe as well and City seem to be clicking since January.
That leaves Arsenal, Pool and United fighting for the last spot, Liverpool certainly look like they've the easiest job but seeing how they've bottled it over and over against the minnows this season I wouldn't bet on them. Then there's Arsenals habit of always managing to finish top 4 although maybe this is the year where they finally go full meltdown. United definitely have the hardest job given that they'll most likely go far in the EL but they've also the best squad and the biggest depth quality wise.
My bet is Chelsea, City, Spurs and Arsenal with United fully focussing (and winning) on the EL come the semi-finals.
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Hard to disagree with this. I said in the game week thread City have gone about their business quietly and their recent form is actually very good. They are still defensively vulnerable, but their superb attacking play is more than capable of bailing them out in most cases. However I would say only Chelsea and Spurs are dead certs for top 4. City still have some tough fixtures including going away to Arsenal and Chelsea, and they host Pool who have a superb top6 record. If they get through that period with favourable results they will be nailed on top 4 as well.

I think it's United, Arsenal and Liverpool for 4th place. And unfortunately on the balance of things Id say we're the least likeliest of the three to get top 4. It can happen, but it means we have to definitely beat the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal and City themselves to gain ground on them. With our congested fixture list, that becomes a much harder task.
 
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