Top 4 race 2016/17

Kentonio said:
You're picking individual exceptions and making it into the rule. If your own club legends say it and you don't believe them, I don't know what else will convince you.
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To be fair the "want to play CL football" line is really just a less crass way if saying "want to be paid a shit ton more,".

It's the same as "excited by the project" that City, Monaco, Chelsea & PSG signings made when they were miles away from competing at the highest levels.

Money is 95% of what the vast majority of players care about, with the remaining 5% being chance to win important trophies.

Ozil and Sanchez would have already signed their contracts if the £250k they're after had been met.
 
finneh said:
To be fair the "want to play CL football" line is really just a less crass way if saying "want to be paid a shit ton more,".

It's the same as "excited by the project" that City, Monaco, Chelsea & PSG signings made when they were miles away from competing at the highest levels.

Money is 95% of what the vast majority of players care about, with the remaining 5% being chance to win important trophies.

Ozil and Sanchez would have already signed their contracts if the £250k they're after had been met.
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You're probably right, but I think we might be slightly over-cynical about what drives players. There's definitely plenty that will go wherever the highest paycheck is, but (and maybe I'm being naive) I'd hope the chance to win the highest honours is still up there as a major driver for players ambitions.
 
Our race is run. We have 7 matches in Europa league to win it. Better concentrate on those 7 and let the league slide by and even the F.a. cup just let it go. Champions league is most important, so stay fresh for that. We are not consistent enough to move ahead of current top 5.
 
Maradona10 said:
Our race is run. We have 7 matches in Europa league to win it. Better concentrate on those 7 and let the league slide by and even the F.a. cup just let it go. Champions league is most important, so stay fresh for that. We are not consistent enough to move ahead of current top 5.
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Yes, I agree with you. All the focus should be on Europa League. Especially since a couple of the title contenders in this cup are facing each other. So realistically this could/should be a win.

Valencia, Pogba, Herrera, Mkhitaryan and Ibra should mostly focus on this.
 
I think we're done personally. Other teams are playing much better than us. I reckon the top 4 will be more or less as it is now.

We may briefly sneak in or continue to push hard but when the City, Arsenal, Spurs & Chelsea games come round the wheels will come off.
 
So much melodrama in this thread. We are possibly only one point away from 4th place Arsenal (if they win their game in hand).

Also, people suggesting we should focus on the Europa league don't know how teams raise their game and how cup games can go either way? Getting to 4th place is way easier than winning the Europa league at the moment.
 
snk123 said:
So much melodrama in this thread. We are possibly only one point away from 4th place Arsenal (if they win their game in hand).

Also, people suggesting we should focus on the Europa league don't know how teams raise their game and how cup games can go either way? Getting to 4th place is way easier than winning the Europa league at the moment.
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Europa league will be a 2 legged affair and i would fancy us beating all teams left in the tournament over two legs. Finals are always difficult, but if we keep our squad fresh for euopa games we should win it.
Frankly speaking we have more chance of Winning europa than finishing top 4.
 
Maradona10 said:
Europa league will be a 2 legged affair and i would fancy us beating all teams left in the tournament over two legs. Finals are always difficult, but if we keep our squad fresh for euopa games we should win it.
Frankly speaking we have more chance of Winning europa than finishing top 4.
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If we can panic every time we have a chance to go to 4th, what makes you think we won't bottle the final or the two legs? Southampton deserved to win the League Cup final - make no mistake about that.

I think we should focus on the league and Europa - the FA Cup is what we don't need to focus on at all.
 
snk123 said:
So much melodrama in this thread. We are possibly only one point away from 4th place Arsenal (if they win their game in hand).

Also, people suggesting we should focus on the Europa league don't know how teams raise their game and how cup games can go either way? Getting to 4th place is way easier than winning the Europa league at the moment.
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If we do get top four it'll have to be at the expense of Liverpool and Arsenal. It's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it considering our tendency to feck up any chance we get to climb a spot in the table.
 
Chelsea, City, Liverpool and Spurs are the most likely top 4 with us and Arsenal missing out. We need to target Liverpool. They look more fragile than the rest.
 
snk123 said:
So much melodrama in this thread. We are possibly only one point away from 4th place Arsenal (if they win their game in hand).

Also, people suggesting we should focus on the Europa league don't know how teams raise their game and how cup games can go either way? Getting to 4th place is way easier than winning the Europa league at the moment.
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Simple facts are we are struggling to beat teams at home and we have only won one game against the top 7 teams. Our remaining games - both home and away - we will find difficult.

Yes, we would be one point behind them but its still a big mountain to climb with how busy our schedule is compared to both Liverpool and Arsenal.

As it stands we've only scored 6 more goals than this time last season, and from the teams that are above us, we're way behind on goals scored with them scoring 14 or more than us. If our scoring record was better, there might be a bit more positivity but when we've messed up the chances we've had to go up a spot in the table, the pessimism is understandable.

Bournemouth have got the worst away record in the league in terms of conceding goals (average of 2.2 conceded per game), with them conceding 6 goals to Everton, 4 to City, 3 to Arsenal, Burnley, Chelsea and Swansea etc, and we could only score one against them.

Burnley have got the worst away record in the league, picking up 2 points from 13 matches. One of the points was against us.

If we can't beat teams like those, we'll struggle against the likes of West Brom, Everton and Chelsea who are all better defensively.
 
Kentonio said:
You're probably right, but I think we might be slightly over-cynical about what drives players. There's definitely plenty that will go wherever the highest paycheck is, but (and maybe I'm being naive) I'd hope the chance to win the highest honours is still up there as a major driver for players ambitions.
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I think if signing players were buying a house, then the trophy winning club would be the buyer with no chain. If you have two equal bids you'll always opt for the buyer who isn't in a chain, you might even accept 2-3% less from said buyer. However you certainly aren't lowering the price significantly on the strength of it.
 
finneh said:
I think if signing players were buying a house, then the trophy winning club would be the buyer with no chain. If you have two equal bids you'll always opt for the buyer who isn't in a chain, you might even accept 2-3% less from said buyer. However you certainly aren't lowering the price significantly on the strength of it.
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Yeah, that's probably about right.
 
Damien said:
Simple facts are we are struggling to beat teams at home and we have only won one game against the top 7 teams. Our remaining games - both home and away - we will find difficult.

Yes, we would be one point behind them but its still a big mountain to climb with how busy our schedule is compared to both Liverpool and Arsenal.

As it stands we've only scored 6 more goals than this time last season, and from the teams that are above us, we're way behind on goals scored with them scoring 14 or more than us. If our scoring record was better, there might be a bit more positivity but when we've messed up the chances we've had to go up a spot in the table, the pessimism is understandable.

Bournemouth have got the worst away record in the league in terms of conceding goals (average of 2.2 conceded per game), with them conceding 6 goals to Everton, 4 to City, 3 to Arsenal, Burnley, Chelsea and Swansea etc, and we could only score one against them.

Burnley have got the worst away record in the league, picking up 2 points from 13 matches. One of the points was against us.

If we can't beat teams like those, we'll struggle against the likes of West Brom, Everton and Chelsea who are all better defensively.
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Shhh.. don't talk sense. We have failed to seize initiative by dropping points in relatively easy games at home, it is very unlikely that we will now do so by getting some sort of result at City, Arsenal and Spurs. Does it mean we should give up on league? No. But let's not keep looking at numbers and exclaim that we have a great chance at top 4.
 
Kentonio said:
You're probably right, but I think we might be slightly over-cynical about what drives players. There's definitely plenty that will go wherever the highest paycheck is, but (and maybe I'm being naive) I'd hope the chance to win the highest honours is still up there as a major driver for players ambitions.
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I don't think he is. It just happens there's usually a correlation between the clubs that pay the best and those playing in the CL. But generally speaking, the players are just professionals trying to earn as much as possible during what is a pretty short career (and there's nothing wrong with that). The pretty big exodus of players to China (which has just begun), an attrocious level of a league, pretty much highlights this.
 
Rooney in Paris said:
I don't think he is. It just happens there's usually a correlation between the clubs that pay the best and those playing in the CL. But generally speaking, the players are just professionals trying to earn as much as possible during what is a pretty short career (and there's nothing wrong with that). The pretty big exodus of players to China (which has just begun), an attrocious level of a league, pretty much highlights this.
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Why haven't more gone to USA and the Middle East before now then?
 
snk123 said:
If we can panic every time we have a chance to go to 4th, what makes you think we won't bottle the final or the two legs? Southampton deserved to win the League Cup final - make no mistake about that.

I think we should focus on the league and Europa - the FA Cup is what we don't need to focus on at all.
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No sir. Southampton doesn't deserve to win it with their shite defense. Yes they could have dragged us into extra time if their disallowed goal stood. That's all to it. You don't deserve to win if you bottle it.

Back at you. What make you think we don't bottle it, given we have to play more games in the league than EL & quite handful of top 4 contenders to play against? If anything, we're often worse off trying play on second gear to see out game while calculating for next game. In cup game we should think less about next game & focus in the tie & bring out the best of us which should be sufficient to beat any other teams in the competition.

Agree FA Cup is not that important this season after we won a small silverware (EFL), so the focus should be shifted to bigger competitions. No point going all out in FA Cup if it means it affects other competition & prevent our progress next season (no CL football & stuck with EL cycle)
 
endless_wheelies said:
Why haven't more gone to USA and the Middle East before now then?
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US have a limited number of players above the salary cap, havent they? Which would limit the amount of players that can go there. I'd argue there's already a pretty impressive amount of players with a superior level to most of the league in both of those anyway. The influx to the Chinese league is particularly impressive, because it seems, on the basis of whats being reported in the media, that its specially interesting for players (from a financial point of view) to go there rather than staying in the European leagues. That gap in whats being offered in the EU vs the US and the Middle East may not be as interesting.
 
amolbhatia50k said:
Chelsea, City, Liverpool and Spurs are the most likely top 4 with us and Arsenal missing out. We need to target Liverpool. They look more fragile than the rest.
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It's points that we all need to target, I reckon 75 and maybe 76 will be needed.
 
Points dropped vs top half teams:

Arsenal (19): Liverpool (6), Chelsea (3), Everton (3), Man City (3), Man Utd (2), Spurs (2)
Spurs (19): Liverpool (5), Chelsea (3), Man Utd (3), Arsenal (2), Everton (2), Man City (2), West Brom (2)
Man City (18): Everton (5), Spurs (5), Chelsea (3), Liverpool (3), Southampton (2)
Man Utd (18): Liverpool (4), Stoke City (4), Chelsea (3), Man City (3), Arsenal (2), Everton (2)
Chelsea (11): Liverpool (5), Arsenal (3), Spurs (3)
Liverpool (10): Man Utd (4), Chelsea (2), Southampton (2), Spurs (2)

Points dropped vs bottom half teams:

Liverpool (19): Bournemouth (3), Burnley (3), Hull City (3), Leicester City (3), Swansea City (3), Sunderland (2), West Ham United (2)
Man Utd (11): Watford (3), Bournemouth (2), Burnley (2), Hull City (2), West Ham United (2)
Arsenal (9): Watford (3), Bournemouth (2), Leicester City (2), Middlesbrough (2)
Spurs (6): Bournemouth (2), Leicester City (2), Sunderland (2)
Man City (5): Leicester City (3), Middlesbrough (2)
Chelsea (4): Burnley (2), Swansea City (2)

Remaining games vs top half teams:

Arsenal (7): Everton (h), Man City (h), Man Utd (h), Southampton (a), Spurs (a), Stoke City (a), West Brom (a)
Man City (7): Arsenal (a), Chelsea (a), Liverpool (h), Man Utd (h), Southampton (a), Stoke City (h), West Brom (h)
Man Utd (7): Arsenal (a), Chelsea (h), Everton (h), Man City (a), Southampton (a), Spurs (a), West Brom (h)
Chelsea (6): Everton (a), Man City (h), Man Utd (a), Southampton (h), Stoke City (a), West Brom (a)
Liverpool (5): Everton (h), Man City (a), Southampton (h), Stoke City (a), West Brom (a)
Spurs (3): Arsenal (h), Man Utd (h), Southampton (h)

Remaining games vs bottom half teams:

Spurs (8): Bournemouth (h), Burnley (a), Crystal Palace (a), Hull City (a), Leicester City (a), Swansea City (a), Watford (h), West Ham (a)
Chelsea (6): Bournemouth (a), Crystal Palace (h), Middlesbrough (h), Sunderland (h), Watford (h), West Ham (a)
Liverpool (6): Bournemouth (h), Burnley (h), Crystal Palace (h), Middlesbrough (h), Watford (a), West Ham (a)
Arsenal (5): Crystal Palace (a), Leicester City (h), Middlesbrough (a), Sunderland (h), West Ham (h)
Man City (5): Crystal Palace (h), Hull City (h), Leicester City (h), Middlesbrough (a), Watford (a)
Man Utd (5): Burnley (a), Crystal Palace (h), Middlesbrough (a), Sunderland (a), Swansea City (h)
 
City could still risk something, as they have tricky fixtures coming up. Chelsea and Spurs are dead certain to finish in the top 4, instead.
 
Rooney in Paris said:
US have a limited number of players above the salary cap, havent they? Which would limit the amount of players that can go there. I'd argue there's already a pretty impressive amount of players with a superior level to most of the league in both of those anyway. The influx to the Chinese league is particularly impressive, because it seems, on the basis of whats being reported in the media, that its specially interesting for players (from a financial point of view) to go there rather than staying in the European leagues. That gap in whats being offered in the EU vs the US and the Middle East may not be as interesting.
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The Chinese league is much more restrictive on big money foreigners than USA. Why would the gap in wages being greater between China and Europe than USA/Middle East and Europe matter if players only care about money? A gap is a gap, surely they're already all in USA/Middle East and will be going direct from there to China?
 
Thanks for info @Damien - very useful and interesting.

It would seem - on paper at least - that Spurs are set fair for top 4, given the combination of 8 games left against bottom half teams and having only dropped 6 points against such teams so far. And even if Arsenal win their game in hand, we'll still have a bit of a cushion - effectively 5 points - against the current 4th place team (Liverpool) that will drop a place.

By the same token, it's looking decidedly dodgy for United and a bit of a toss-up between Arsenal and Liverpool.
 
Damien said:
Simple facts are we are struggling to beat teams at home and we have only won one game against the top 7 teams. Our remaining games - both home and away - we will find difficult.

Yes, we would be one point behind them but its still a big mountain to climb with how busy our schedule is compared to both Liverpool and Arsenal.

As it stands we've only scored 6 more goals than this time last season, and from the teams that are above us, we're way behind on goals scored with them scoring 14 or more than us. If our scoring record was better, there might be a bit more positivity but when we've messed up the chances we've had to go up a spot in the table, the pessimism is understandable.

Bournemouth have got the worst away record in the league in terms of conceding goals (average of 2.2 conceded per game), with them conceding 6 goals to Everton, 4 to City, 3 to Arsenal, Burnley, Chelsea and Swansea etc, and we could only score one against them.

Burnley have got the worst away record in the league, picking up 2 points from 13 matches. One of the points was against us.

If we can't beat teams like those, we'll struggle against the likes of West Brom, Everton and Chelsea who are all better defensively.
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That sounds about right to me. We've dropped points in quite a few games that you'd normally regard as guaranteed 3 points, for the most part. Out rivals will likely pick up more points in those games than we have (or the remaining equivalents, give or take). We'll still have to play Arsenal and Spurs away in the final 5 games, with the City and Southampton games still to be fixed. Chelsea at home a couple of weeks before won't be easy either. I suspect, unfortunately, that we'll be well out of the running by the few games. My gut feeling is that we'll finish 6th, Liverpool 5th, Arsenal 4th and then it'll be a toss up between Spurs and City for 2nd. I know on here you immediately get called out for negativity when you say stuff like that, but as you say, there's no reason to assume we'll suddenly go from struggling to beat the smaller sides to being able to beat them and get results away at the bigger sides.
 
Kevin said:
He seems to have forgotten the only reason they are relevant in the league stakes since 2004ish is that they won the lottery a bit more than a decade ago. No wonder he can now sit on his toy horse with saddle heating and fart away.
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How's about stop obsessing about whose money is more self-generated than whose and face facts.
United have as much cash to spend as anyone else and a stadium, pay structure and Manager that would attract any available player in the world.
It's a matter of choosing the right ones and coaching them to get the optimum performances from them.
United have taken their eye off the ball for a few years now and are reaping what they have sown.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Thanks for info @Damien - very useful and interesting.

It would seem - on paper at least - that Spurs are set fair for top 4, given the combination of 8 games left against bottom half teams and having only dropped 6 points against such teams so far. And even if Arsenal win their game in hand, we'll still have a bit of a cushion - effectively 5 points - against the current 4th place team (Liverpool) that will drop a place.

By the same token, it's looking decidedly dodgy for United and a bit of a toss-up between Arsenal and Liverpool.
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It's still only on paper, I still think we need another 20 points, maybe 19 because of our GD.
 
It's certainly not 'over', jesus. There's loads of games left and hardly any points in it. Won't be easy though. Fortunately for us both Liverpool and Arsenal have their own issues, and it's almost certainly a fight between the three of us to take the final spot.
 
It's so there for the taking, Arsenal are just cherry ripe to miss out, and Liverpool have some sort of split personalty disorder going on, but we just don't seem to want it.
 
It's over guys, best we can do is finish 5th I reckon. I think Liverpool will be 4th, and us and Arsenal for 5th. Hoping they have a meltdown.

We really need to go for Europa now.
 
maybe if Zlatan is suspended and Rashford plays through the middle it may have the same effect as last season when Rashford came in, not saying it will but stranger things have happened before.

Look what happened with us with Jesus, played 3 games gets injured but it's rejuvenated Aguero as he's come back as twice the player he was earlier in the season and we look pretty decent again, got back 5 or 6 games ago and a canny few of United fans were thinking that City wouldn't finish in the top 4
 
Damien said:
Points dropped vs top half teams:

Arsenal (19): Liverpool (6), Chelsea (3), Everton (3), Man City (3), Man Utd (2), Spurs (2)
Spurs (19): Liverpool (5), Chelsea (3), Man Utd (3), Arsenal (2), Everton (2), Man City (2), West Brom (2)
Man City (18): Everton (5), Spurs (5), Chelsea (3), Liverpool (3), Southampton (2)
Man Utd (18): Liverpool (4), Stoke City (4), Chelsea (3), Man City (3), Arsenal (2), Everton (2)
Chelsea (11): Liverpool (5), Arsenal (3), Spurs (3)
Liverpool (10): Man Utd (4), Chelsea (2), Southampton (2), Spurs (2)

Points dropped vs bottom half teams:

Liverpool (19): Bournemouth (3), Burnley (3), Hull City (3), Leicester City (3), Swansea City (3), Sunderland (2), West Ham United (2)
Man Utd (11): Watford (3), Bournemouth (2), Burnley (2), Hull City (2), West Ham United (2)
Arsenal (9): Watford (3), Bournemouth (2), Leicester City (2), Middlesbrough (2)
Spurs (6): Bournemouth (2), Leicester City (2), Sunderland (2)
Man City (5): Leicester City (3), Middlesbrough (2)
Chelsea (4): Burnley (2), Swansea City (2)

Remaining games vs top half teams:

Arsenal (7): Everton (h), Man City (h), Man Utd (h), Southampton (a), Spurs (a), Stoke City (a), West Brom (a)
Man City (7): Arsenal (a), Chelsea (a), Liverpool (h), Man Utd (h), Southampton (a), Stoke City (h), West Brom (h)
Man Utd (7): Arsenal (a), Chelsea (h), Everton (h), Man City (a), Southampton (a), Spurs (a), West Brom (h)
Chelsea (6): Everton (a), Man City (h), Man Utd (a), Southampton (h), Stoke City (a), West Brom (a)
Liverpool (5): Everton (h), Man City (a), Southampton (h), Stoke City (a), West Brom (a)
Spurs (3): Arsenal (h), Man Utd (h), Southampton (h)

Remaining games vs bottom half teams:

Spurs (8): Bournemouth (h), Burnley (a), Crystal Palace (a), Hull City (a), Leicester City (a), Swansea City (a), Watford (h), West Ham (a)
Chelsea (6): Bournemouth (a), Crystal Palace (h), Middlesbrough (h), Sunderland (h), Watford (h), West Ham (a)
Liverpool (6): Bournemouth (h), Burnley (h), Crystal Palace (h), Middlesbrough (h), Watford (a), West Ham (a)
Arsenal (5): Crystal Palace (a), Leicester City (h), Middlesbrough (a), Sunderland (h), West Ham (h)
Man City (5): Crystal Palace (h), Hull City (h), Leicester City (h), Middlesbrough (a), Watford (a)
Man Utd (5): Burnley (a), Crystal Palace (h), Middlesbrough (a), Sunderland (a), Swansea City (h)
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If the teams perform in a similar fashion in the remaining games, the top 6 order would be

Chelsea
Spurs
City
Arsenal
Liverpool
United

Certainly looks bleak for us. We need a massive turn around in performance to get into top 4.
 
markelphick said:
It's over guys, best we can do is finish 5th I reckon. I think Liverpool will be 4th, and us and Arsenal for 5th. Hoping they have a meltdown.

We really need to go for Europa now.
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Seriously? Liverpool are a whole 3 points ahead of us, having played a game more. They've picked up 9 points out of 24 this year. We've picked up 13 out of 21. Why do so many Utd fans assume that Liverpool will suddenly improve their form a lot yet they have no confidence in us to even improve slightly? It makes no sense, especially when you look at each team's issues, theirs being tactics that are ineffective against weaker teams and the need for almost an entire new defence, ours being only needing to stop missing so many chances despite dominating most games.
 
I confidently voted Spurs would not make top 4 and that confidence has undoubtedly been shaken a little. Having a quick gander at their fixtures they have two smaller London derbies both away against Palace and West Ham. Normally winnable games but West Ham absolutely hate Spurs' guts (weird rivalry) and Palace is a relegation dogfight with biting and scratching allowed.

Also in there are two very winnable home games against Watford and Southampton. But the rest are must wins or least must draws for the other teams, either in extreme relegation fight-mode or top 4 battles (Arsenal, Utd). If, and I mean a huge IF, Liverpool or Utd fancied it then they could get top 4 at Spurs expense over anyone else. Plus, mustn't forget Arsenal always finish above Spurs.
 
Anyone else feel for the first time that the top four is slowly starting to splinter off: Chelsea for 1st, Spurs and City for 2nd and 3rd, and LFC, Arsenal and United battling it out for fourth?! That's how it increasingly looks to me anyway.
 
Based on the pattern we've been on (dropping points to sides in the bottom half), I think we'll end up 5th or 6th.

It would take a dramatic improvement against those sides if we're going to get there.
 
stevieg4ever said:
Anyone else feel for the first time that the top four is slowly starting to splinter off: Chelsea for 1st, Spurs and City for 2nd and 3rd, and LFC, Arsenal and United battling it out for fourth?! That's how it increasingly looks to me anyway.
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yeah but still plenty can change with 12 games left, City winning on Wednesday is a must for us as next 3 games are Liverpool, Arse and Chelsea, being 6 points clear of Liverpool having played the same amount of games will just give us a bit of breathing space, if we can beat Stoke and Liverpool then we would be in a really strong position but all it takes are a couple of bad results and then it's all up in the air again.

crappycraperson said:
Spurs are playing too well in the league to not make top 4.
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but do you not get the feeling that it's Spurs! I was looking at the table before and Arsenal are only 6 points behind spurs but with a game in hand, I honestly thought they were 8 or 9 points clear of them.
 
crappycraperson said:
Spurs are playing too well in the league to not make top 4.
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Only at WHL. They turn into another team away from home, only won 4 games away all season so far.

Their points split is Home:38 (played 14) Away:18 (played 13)

If they keep up both their excellent home form and their mediocre away form then they should get a further 9 points at home (3 wins from 3) and 5 points away (1 win 2 draws) which will give them 80 points ....... err which will be plenty for top 4 :lol:
 
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