Top 4 race 2016/17

So according to the bookies (who generally make up those odds tables right) Liverpool could get Top 4 with as low as 7 points (61%). I'd like to see the tables for the other contenders.

It may not be far off. I can see 8-9 pts being enough. All 4 contenders for 3rd/4th have shown massive weaknesses this season and it's not going to suddenly come right for the last 4-5 matches. Look at City's home record and they have 3 tough counter attacking teams. Look at United's fixture and injury lists (on top of having 4 critical games in 11 days), look at Arsenal and Liverpool's inconsistencies.

There are many twists and turns to come but I'd be surprised if City and Liverpool don't make Top 4 and United at least make the EL final putting all their eggs in that basket when push comes to shove.
 
el3mel said:
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City got the easiest run by far. Can see them winning all the 5 games and finishing 3rd.

Liverpool should have an easy run but for them this schedule is very hard :D Can see them at least losing one another match against Watford or South.

We got a tough schedule but hell Arsenal got even harder one. The only easy match they have is Sunderland.

City is a sure 3rd position finish for me. We can still steal the 4th position from Liverpool.
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City have got two relegation battling teams to play, in-form Leicster, sold West Brom and Watford. I don't think its as easy as you suggest. Liverpool is capable of winning all and losing all- they just unpredicatble with so-called "lesser" teams". Ourselves- i expect 11 points - 3 wins and 2 draws. I can't see Arsenal getting to top four.
 
There's generally good points to be got vs. 'teams already on the beach'. Teams trying hard are usually those fighting relegation, or a bit 'surprise' motivated for the first time in a month because the club cat has died or something.

Utd got a hell of a lot on if LFC get 12 or 10 from their 4 games. A big win for Utd on Sunday to help the goal difference would be handy.

I think City are gonna be OK & Arsenal not OK.
 
NoPace said:
City's home games look potentially tricky to me. Palace-Leicester-WestBrom will be 3 straight games with teams happy to sit deep and counter against Guardiola and they've all had great performances this year doing that against better clubs. Hard to see City winning all 3. But Watford and Boro look awful so they'll likely get it done.
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Sunny Jim said:
City have got two relegation battling teams to play, in-form Leicster, sold West Brom and Watford. I don't think its as easy as you suggest. Liverpool is capable of winning all and losing all- they just unpredicatble with so-called "lesser" teams". Ourselves- i expect 11 points - 3 wins and 2 draws. I can't see Arsenal getting to top four.
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They can put a fight but I can still see easy 3 points for City at the end. They would know how to win such games.
 
Think the next couple of games are key for us. Beating Swansea is a must, and then a win at the Emirates would provide us with a good platform for the run-in. I expect Spurs to beat Arsenal this weekend and then draw/lose to us, which means they could only gain 72-73 points in total. Liverpool will maybe slip up once (75-76 points), which means, as I said from the beginning, one of our three away games against Spurs, Arsenal und City needs to be won. As winning at the Emirates is our best bet IMHO, next Sunday is crucial. If we manage to do that, beating Southampton and Crystal Palace on the final day of the season would give us 76 points, battling it out with Liverpool on goal difference.
Those draws against Bournemouth, West Ham, Hull, Stoke and Burnley in particular are coming back to haunt us now. We could be quite relaxed about top four if we had only beaten a couple of these teams at home.

Right now I'd guess that Liverpool will finish on 76 points, United on 74 and Arsenal on 73. City will make it quite easily in 3rd place.
 
We'll get 11 points with draws against Arsenal and Spurs --> 75 points

Liverpool to get 9 points --> 75 points

City to get 12 points --> 77 points

Arsenal to get 11 points --> 71 points

Liverpool will finish above us on goal difference as they have +2 already and easier fixtures than us.
 
abhayselvan said:
We'll get 11 points with draws against Arsenal and Spurs --> 75 points

Liverpool to get 9 points --> 75 points

City to get 12 points --> 77 points

Arsenal to get 11 points --> 71 points

Liverpool will finish above us on goal difference as they have +2 already and easier fixtures than us.
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Sounds plausible tbh. It'd be quite fitting for us to lose out on GD because we hadn't scored enough goals.
 
We'll finish 5th imo. We need to win away against Spurs and Arsenal which is a tall enough order as it is but I also wouldn't be surprised if we drop points to Southampton. We need 12 points from our final 15 if we're going to make 4th but I just don't see it. I also think we'll go out to Celta Vigo, injuries and fatigue are catching up with us.

I'm a cheerful fecker I know.
 
2 Man Midfield said:
We'll finish 5th imo. We need to win away against Spurs and Arsenal which is a tall enough order as it is but I also wouldn't be surprised if we drop points to Southampton. We need 12 points from our final 15 if we're going to make 4th but I just don't see it. I also think we'll go out to Celta Vigo, injuries and fatigue are catching up with us.

I'm a cheerful fecker I know.
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Even if we get 12 points, we'll need Liverpool to lose 1 more game. Or if they draw it will come down to GD.
 
I said last week I think Liverpool need to drop points in two games to give us a chance. I think we can win at Arsenal but at Spurs I can only see a draw at best.
 
VinnyRedDevil said:
As long MU win the next match, they will be on 34 matches with 1 point above Liverpool.

I have a feeling MU will be forth and MC will be third at the end of the season.
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League Cup
Europa League
Top 4

That'd be a great first season all things considered.
 
Infra-red said:
We need Liverpool to have off-days in two of their remaining four games for us to have a chance.

I'm not even sure we have the resources for this anymore though; by my count we only have 16 fit, available players in the entire squad (and that includes Romero and Tuanzebe). We're stretched to breaking-point and have to navigate an incredibly gruelling run-in.
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If we win we don't, simple math.
 
2 Man Midfield said:
We'll finish 5th imo. We need to win away against Spurs and Arsenal which is a tall enough order as it is but I also wouldn't be surprised if we drop points to Southampton. We need 12 points from our final 15 if we're going to make 4th but I just don't see it. I also think we'll go out to Celta Vigo, injuries and fatigue are catching up with us.

I'm a cheerful fecker I know.
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Just check our away form. We have joined second best away form with City at 34 points. We have the least defeat away from home of all the teams, which means we can claim 2nd place in away form. Chelsea top with 36 points. Both Chelsea & City played 1 more away game than us!

:eek:

I am more worried about Swansea & Crystal Palace games tbh.
 
With all the injuries and a lot of tough games in a row, with very little rest in between, I think we're likely to come up short in the league (and possibly the Europa too).

I think we're going to run out of gas at just the wrong time unfortunately.
 
Akash said:
Even if we get 12 points, we'll need Liverpool to lose 1 more game. Or if they draw it will come down to GD.
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Yeah, it's going to be tough. I wouldn't back us to win 5 in a row against mid-table opposition, let alone away games against Spurs and Arsenal.

Don't mean to sound gloomy but it just doesn't strike me as likely at all.
 
ti vu said:
Just check our away form. We have joined second best away form with City at 34 points. We have the least defeat away from home of all the teams, which means we can claim 2nd place in away form. Chelsea top with 36 points. Both Chelsea & City played 1 more away game than us!

:eek:

I am more worried about Swansea & Crystal Palace games tbh.
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Our away form is undoubtedly excellent, but it just doesn't seem likely that we'll beat them both. That's taking for granted that we'll win the other 3.

That said, it's in our own hands. But that's meaningless, it's been in our hands numerous times this season and we've let it slip each and every time.
 
Infra-red said:
Yes, but we're not going to win all of our remaining games.
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Neither will Liverpool or City.
People were saying Chelsea / Burnley/ City mixed in with EL was an impossible run of fixtures, we navigated those easily enough and I would argue those are harder than the run of fixtures we have coming up.
 
Ideally Spurs and Arsenal draw and Spurs realise they're not winning the league so aren't up for our game as much.
 
cyberman said:
Neither will Liverpool or City.
People were saying Chelsea / Burnley/ City mixed in with EL was an impossible run of fixtures, we navigated those easily enough and I would argue those are harder than the run of fixtures we have coming up.
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City might, Liverpool in my view probably wont.
 
I said throughout the season that 72-74 would be the points needed to get top 4.

Now we could get those and still miss out. Though if we get 74, I'd bet on us making it and it helps our goal difference is not too far behind Liverpool now.
 
Ixion said:
Ideally Spurs and Arsenal draw and Spurs realise they're not winning the league so aren't up for our game as much.
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It's going to be the final match ever at White Hart Lane. No chance Spurs aren't up for it - I'm much more worried that match will be overemotional and the team far too up for it (reckless, etc) than the other way around.
 
Our away form against the top half:

Chelsea L
Man City D
Liverpool D
Everton D
West Brom W
Watford L

Now we need to get atleast 6 points(even that might not be enough) from 3 more top half teams. Apart from that, we have two games against the bottom half at home. Now checking that record, we have

Stoke D
Bournemouth D
West Ham D
Leicester W
Burnley D
Hull D
Middlesbrough W
Sunderland W

Not drawing any conclusions from this. I can only say that if we make top 4 with our fixture list and injuries, it will be a miracle.
 
abhayselvan said:
Our away form against the top half:

Chelsea L
Man City D
Liverpool D
Everton D
West Brom W
Watford L

Now we need to get atleast 6 points(even that might not be enough) from 3 more top half teams. Apart from that, we have two games against the bottom half at home. Now checking that record, we have

Stoke D
Bournemouth D
West Ham D
Leicester W
Burnley D
Hull D
Middlesbrough W
Sunderland W

Not drawing any conclusions from this. I can only say that if we make top 4 with our fixture list and injuries, it will be a miracle.
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We obviously have to win our game in hand away at Southampton (comes 3 days after Spurs away and will not be easy) and also match Liverpool's results across the other 4 games, despite having more difficult fixtures, a depleted squad and less time to recover in between games. We're still the least-likely of the current top 5 to finish top 4.
 
Inb4 Arsenal somehow fluke Top4 and Wenger signs a new contract. You lot know it's a possibility as well.

Actually I'm gonna stick a tenner on Arsenal making top 4. I assume odds are good.
 
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cyberman said:
Neither will Liverpool or City.
People were saying Chelsea / Burnley/ City mixed in with EL was an impossible run of fixtures, we navigated those easily enough and I would argue those are harder than the run of fixtures we have coming up.
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That was just part 1. Now you have to do it all again or part 1 would have been for nothing. You may have got the points in part 1 but you also lost Ibra, Pogba, Fellaini and Rojo to name your main-minutes players. That's quite a sacrifice to achieve 7 out of 9 points. You also knackered out (mentally and physically) Bailly, Rashford and Herrera. Maybe Mikhi too who seems to be struggling with the mental side.
 
Dumbstar said:
That was just part 1. Now you have to do it all again or part 1 would have been for nothing. You may have got the points in part 1 but you also lost Ibra, Pogba, Fellaini and Rojo to name your main-minutes players. That's quite a sacrifice to achieve 7 out of 9 points. You also knackered out (mentally and physically) Bailly, Rashford and Herrera. Maybe Mikhi too who seems to be struggling with the mental side.
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Big players have to be able to do it regularly.

Liverpool can't even beat Palace(your local team?) at home after a weeks rest. :)

3rd place is gone for Pool and they are unseeded in the CL qualifiers if they scrape 4th. :) So I wouldn't be getting too excited just yet.
 
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Dumbstar said:
That was just part 1. Now you have to do it all again or part 1 would have been for nothing. You may have got the points in part 1 but you also lost Ibra, Pogba, Fellaini and Rojo to name your main-minutes players. That's quite a sacrifice to achieve 7 out of 9 points. You also knackered out (mentally and physically) Bailly, Rashford and Herrera. Maybe Mikhi too who seems to be struggling with the mental side.
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Probably first time on a football related discussion I have to agree with you bro...:angel: Jummah Mubarak.
 
thegregster said:
Whereas Liverpool can't even beat Palace at home.

3rd place is gone for Pool and they are unseeded in the CL qualifiers if they scrape 4th. :)
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I thought you opened the race up for 3rd by not allowing City to win. If by some miracle (unheard of in history) Liverpool win a game while City (unheard of in history ever) draw/lose against a relegation battling Middlesborough then effectively we're third on Monday night while you go into Europa League then face Arsenal.

Obviously City and Utd could win and Liverpool drop more silly points on Monday, but there is a huge elephant evasion operation going on in this room.
 
Dumbstar said:
That was just part 1. Now you have to do it all again or part 1 would have been for nothing. You may have got the points in part 1 but you also lost Ibra, Pogba, Fellaini and Rojo to name your main-minutes players. That's quite a sacrifice to achieve 7 out of 9 points. You also knackered out (mentally and physically) Bailly, Rashford and Herrera. Maybe Mikhi too who seems to be struggling with the mental side.
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Those players don't look tired at all. Their best performances have come over the last month or so. I have no idea why people keep saying they're tired.
Rashford, Mkhi and Herrera especially seem to be playing one week and rested the next.
Rooney and Lingard will play on Sunday, Pogba will probably rest until Celta. We're coping just fine.
The confidence is oozing from our players, we're bouncing into every game.
 
Dumbstar said:
I thought you opened the race up for 3rd by not allowing City to win. If by some miracle (unheard of in history) Liverpool win a game while City (unheard of in history ever) draw/lose against a relegation battling Middlesborough then effectively we're third on Monday night while you go into Europa League then face Arsenal.

Obviously City and Utd could win and Liverpool drop more silly points on Monday, but there is a huge elephant evasion operation going on in this room.
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You should have third wrapped up a few weeks back. You totally bottled it. Think the chances of pool getting 3rd are minimal.
 
A big ask for Liverpool to win all 4 games. Dont think they are that consistent that allows us another 1 draw and still make it through. However still think Europa is our best bet.
 
Newman123 said:
Inb4 Arsenal somehow fluke Top4 and Wenger signs a new contract. You lot know it's a possibility as well.

Actually I'm gonna stick a tenner on Arsenal making top 4. I assume odds are good.
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We are still far behind. Sunday's derby is really "do or die" for us. We woouldn't have another chance if we lost or failed to win.
 
Arsenal are back in it somehow. I fully back them to feck over spurs in the last north London derby at WHL. It's just the type of thing that would happen to Tottenham
 
Skills said:
Arsenal are back in it somehow. I fully back them to feck over spurs in the last north London derby at WHL. It's just the type of thing that would happen to Tottenham
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I could absolutely see that happening. It would be kind of funny, especially if Chelsea lose to Everton earlier in the day. Obviously not the optimal result for us but still.
 
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