Top 4 race 2016/17

SammyUnited_83 said:
http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/news/newsid=2444525.html

Where the winners enter
• The UEFA Champions League winners enter in the UEFA Champions League group stage as normal.

• The UEFA Europa League winners enter in the UEFA Champions League (at a minimum level of the play-offs).

• The UEFA Europa League winners enter in the group stage if the UEFA Champions League winners qualify directly for the UEFA Champions League group stage via their domestic league programme. This is what happened the past two seasons after success for Barcelona and Real Madrid.
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edit. As above very slim chance this will happen, and more than likely will go into groups, but isn't guaranteed.
 
SammyUnited_83 said:
edit. As above very slim chance this will happen, and more than likely will go into groups, but isn't guaranteed.
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So unless one of the CL semi finalists can't finish in the automatic CL qualification position in their domestic league, the winner of the Europa League goes directly to the group stage? If that is the case, it seems guaranteed no?
 
Theonas said:
So unless one of the CL semi finalists can't finish in the automatic CL qualification position in their domestic league, the winner of the Europa League goes directly to the group stage? If that is the case, it seems guaranteed no?
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Yes. Athletico is the only one that might miss out automatically but they have 3 points more than Sevilla and a better goal difference with 3 games to play to stay in third so they'll probably be OK.
 
Theonas said:
So unless one of the CL semi finalists can't finish in the automatic CL qualification position in their domestic league, the winner of the Europa League goes directly to the group stage? If that is the case, it seems guaranteed no?
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There's a chance Atlectico could finish 4th.
 
Sterling Archer said:
I hear ya. But that requires bucking the habit they have had this year of not doing it.

I know a lot have been joking about Arsenal being in it still...but there's still an outside chance. I don't think any of United City or Liverpool fans can be certain of it!
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Win all our remaining games and we would stand a good chance, imo. 75 points should be enough to secure the top 4. The problem is that we are god damn awful atm.
 
SammyUnited_83 said:
I personally assumed that winning the EL guaranteed CL qualification / top seed for the group stages!
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I think it would be unfair I think if the Europa League winners get a top seed in the group stage. There are five top leagues and you can argue at least two of the winners in Russia, Netherlands and Portugal deserve a top seed. Anyway, we are not getting the top four with the 3 trips we have coming up so fingers crossed we get past Celta because I feel there is no better manager in the world at winning a one off final against an inferior team which Lyon and Ajax are.
 
Santi_Mesut_Alexis_87 said:
Win all our remaining games and we would stand a good chance, imo. 75 points should be enough to secure the top 4. The problem is that we are god damn awful atm.
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Whoever wins our match will have a fair shout at top 4 still, a draw and it's probably curtains for both of us.
 
SammyUnited_83 said:
I think Celta Vigo are being slightly overlooked to be honest. They have nothing else to play for, so it won't be easy, although I think we should do it, it won't be easy.

The final will be a toss of a coin.
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Yeap, people are being very dismissive of them.I think it will be a tough game and even more so with all the injuries.
 
Even if Liverpool bottle it pretty badly, with 1 win 1 draw 1 loss in their last three, they end up with 73 points and about a +30 GD. And even if City bottle it pretty badly, with 2 wins 1 draw 1 loss in their last four (all against teams with nothing to play for, three at home), then they'll also end up with 73 points and roughly +30 GD.

This means that Arsenal basically need to win five straight matches to have any chance, by ending on 75 points. Four wins and a draw means 73 points but very likely a worse goal differential.

United needs 8-9 points from their last four to have a chance, which means three wins or two wins and two draws. I don't think you can expect to go to WHL and get three points the way this Spurs team is playing, especially coming off a midweek match and facing a very energetic and rested opponent. So you either need to draw both Arsenal and Spurs or beat Arsenal away to have any chance of top four. I think its going to be a difficult task given that both opponents will be better rested and the bare bones squad that United have right now due to injuries. But Mourinho should really go for it against Arsenal and try for the win, not set up ultra defensively.
 
Now that it's "out of our control" with the last 2 draws, the league is a much harder prospect given our fixtures. Our approach against Arsenal will depend on how the EL match goes. If the tie is still in the balance, I think you'll see more young players and we'll play for a 1-0. If the tie is effectively over, either way, we will play full strength and go for a bigger win. We handled Arsenal well at home, I can't see Jose just completely laying over for Wenger.
 
Powderfinger said:
Even if Liverpool bottle it pretty badly, with 1 win 1 draw 1 loss in their last three, they end up with 73 points and about a +30 GD. And even if City bottle it pretty badly, with 2 wins 1 draw 1 loss in their last four (all against teams with nothing to play for, three at home), then they'll also end up with 73 points and roughly +30 GD.

This means that Arsenal basically need to win five straight matches to have any chance, by ending on 75 points. Four wins and a draw means 73 points but very likely a worse goal differential.

United needs 8-9 points from their last four to have a chance, which means three wins or two wins and two draws. I don't think you can expect to go to WHL and get three points the way this Spurs team is playing, especially coming off a midweek match and facing a very energetic and rested opponent. So you either need to draw both Arsenal and Spurs or beat Arsenal away to have any chance of top four. I think its going to be a difficult task given that both opponents will be better rested and the bare bones squad that United have right now due to injuries. But Mourinho should really go for it against Arsenal and try for the win, not set up ultra defensively.
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I suspect our approach against Arsenal will be largely defensive. Unless we play a blinder and thrash Celta Vigo effectively ending the tie, I can't see Jose going for it. There are various reasons. Jose's priority regardless of anything will be to not to lose against Arsene for obvious reasons. However, we are going to play Arsenal at the Emirates, and even considering Arsenal's recent poor form they have still more than sufficient quality to hurt us. Injury woes and a depleted defence only serve to exacerbate our dilemma. Then of course we've just played on Thursday.

Being realistic, as yourself and others have alluded to, we both need a win. I think anything but an Arsenal win effectively renders your season over barring a disastrous collapse from Liverpool and City. On the other hand we are still in with a shout yet, but not winning this game will probably be the end for us too if the other teams win. We go away to WHL next and Spurs haven't lost there, suggesting it's very likely we will drop at least 2 points. Dropping two points against Swansea was definitely the killer.
 
Do people here still think we will make top 4 ? we lost many opportunities to get top 4 when we had the full squad, now with all the injuries, there is no chance.... Europa is our only hope
 
The_Midfielder said:
Do people here still think we will make top 4 ? we lost many opportunities to get top 4 when we had the full squad, now with all the injuries, there is no chance.... Europa is our only hope
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Looks very difficult, but far from over, since it's only a matter of City drawing a game more than us. Could go till the end.
 
City and Liverpool fighting it out for 3rd and 4th now; Utd have too many injuries, the EL, and a harder league fixture schedule to contend with.
 
I never really had any doubt as to whether Liverpool would secure top 4. They already did enough beforehand by beating Stoke and WBA to allow them to slip up a little bit. I'd expect them to at least beat Southampton and Middlesbrough. Man City had a potential banana skin in a recently revived Palace, but Palace have faltered lately and City should claim 3 points here already being 2-0 up. The top 4 is looking increasingly confirmed.

I don't see us beating Spurs at WHL, so that gives those two even more leeway to drop points. Arsenal are too far out also IMO. Even if Liverpool lost tomorrow I wouldn't get too excited because I don't expect us to come out of our next 2 fixtures with a full 6 points. I know Jose said whilst it's mathematically possible he will try in the league, but he knows very well EL is a better chance for us, and a better reward.

Think of it this way, we're 4 games away AND needing other results to go our way from top 4. On the other hand we are 2 games away from the EL trophy. One of those games we are actually technically already ahead in. The trophy, and automatic qualifications are obvious. But then it's also, on paper at least an easier to ask to beat Ajax (Lyon) in the final than it would be to go the last ever WHL game against a stellar, focused Spurs needing a win.
 
AXVnee7 said:
I never really had any doubt as to whether Liverpool would secure top 4. They already did enough beforehand by beating Stoke and WBA to allow them to slip up a little bit. I'd expect them to at least beat Southampton and Middlesbrough. Man City had a potential banana skin in a recently revived Palace, but Palace have faltered lately and City should claim 3 points here already being 2-0 up. The top 4 is looking increasingly confirmed.

I don't see us beating Spurs at WHL, so that gives those two even more leeway to drop points. Arsenal are too far out also IMO. Even if Liverpool lost tomorrow I wouldn't get too excited because I don't expect us to come out of our next 2 fixtures with a full 6 points. I know Jose said whilst it's mathematically possible he will try in the league, but he knows very well EL is a better chance for us, and a better reward.

Think of it this way, we're 4 games away AND needing other results to go our way away from top 4. On the otherhand we are 2 games away from the EL trophy. One of those games we are actually technically already ahead in. The trophy, and automatic qualifications are obvious. But then it's also, on paper at least an easier to ask to beat Ajax (Lyon) in the final than it would be to go the last ever WHL game against a stellar, focused Spurs needing a win.
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Spurs will have nothing to play for if Chelsea beat Boro H on Monday and WBA A on Friday.
 
thegregster said:
Spurs will have nothing to play for if Chelsea beat Boro H on Monday and WBA A on Friday.
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  • last ever game at White Hart Lane
  • opportunity to be unbeaten at home for the first time ever(?) in a season
 
Damien said:
  • last ever game at White Hart Lane
  • opportunity to be unbeaten at home for the first time ever(?) in a season
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Kind of insignificant things to motivate yourself for after losing out on the title race. I imagine the game will be quite flat.
 
Sorry can someone clarify this for me? If we win the Europa league does the forth club say Liverpool or City come out the Champions league and go into the Europa league?

Just seen a post thanks
 
Ixion said:
Kind of insignificant things to motivate yourself for after losing out on the title race. I imagine the game will be quite flat.
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Probably. I think we'll have both eyes on the Europa League final at that point.
 
Lawman said:
Sorry can someone clarify this for me? If we win the Europa league does the forth club say Liverpool or City come out the Champions league and go into the Europa league?
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Nope. 5 English teams in the CL. I'm not sure if 3rd has to do a qualifier as well as 4th or you guys do or only 4th but 5 teams will be in the list.
 
Lawman said:
Sorry can someone clarify this for me? If we win the Europa league does the forth club say Liverpool or City come out the Champions league and go into the Europa league?
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No. They'll be in the Champions League too. Only way the fourth placed team drops out is if an English team wins both the Champions League and Europa League and finishes outside the top 4. Once Leicester were knocked out that was no longer possible.
 
If we win the Europa League and finish outside the top four does 8th Premier League place get Europa qualification?
 
I know this has been discussed before but...... if we win the EL and finish 4th in the league, what happens to the 5th place league finisher ?
 
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