A brexiter who wants the benefits of EU without paying for it? No...
UK European Elections 2019 | Results Tonight from 10pm
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Even the Corbynites have given up pretending it's all well and good. Tbf, I think the party is fecked either way so I've stopped caring about him since I. Stuck a fork in him long ago.
Survation and Panelbase also had Labour well over 20% for these elections.
Is this the "current polling" you're going with ahead of my woefully outdated YouGov poll from May 8th/9th? (edited to include update from May 13th/14th)
Hmmm...
Oi! That's just the website you put the polls in to. You have to enter current polling data! I have done that with recent polls and it made happy results many times! I never said the website's own data was accurate. You click the 'make your prediction' button on the left.
In all seriousness, I know this forum is pro-remain and I respect that. But you can't just label hard leavers (a good 35% of the country) insane or racist just because they believe in a different path.
Some of the earlier posts were just... euh.
Some of the earlier posts were just... euh.
Gonna poll me and the pigeon outside and you're gonna look so foolish when Labour win a landslide.
Well we went off on this tangent when you said "latest GE polls give Labour a comfortable majority." The most recent YouGov poll I can find has them neck and neck with the Tories. With both parties doing atrociously compared to historical norms.
Even allowing you to pick and choose whatever polls you fancy, then plugging the results into this website ends up with a hung parliament. So this should really be the point at which you concede that no, the polls do not give Labour a comfortable majority.
Joke's on them because everyone who voted leave in the referendum will be dead by then. Score one for the leaver's.
Just because there is a large amount of them, doesn't make them any less insane or racist.
That is like saying the Nazi's were justified in what they thought just because there was a large quantity of the population who believed in it.
This country has gone to the dogs. It is broken.
Which posts? Someone accussed Anne Widdecombe of being crazy/racist, not the entire Brexit voters. This is also the issue when people like yourself follow a party led by Farage. I have zero sympathy.
I so reckon if arsed, I could absolutely find two or three polls from the last fortnight that give Labour a majority, when put in to that website. I also have no faith in polls or that website, so I'm not going to try.
As such...
I hereby retract my exaggerative statement, that I could totes prove if I wanted to. You were right, as far as we know given the lack of evidence, and I was wrong... perhaps.
Happy?
I don't believe all Brexiters are insane or racist (although there is a hard core of the latter), what most of them are is simplistic and uninformed and ignorant of the complexities of the situation. I believe we'd see the same results in a referendum to scrap the government. Too many people have too little idea of what government does for the country, and they've voted to remove a big element of it based on simplistic ideology.
Perhaps the best way if no deal is the only way is to retreat to a Norway position, set up trade deals then properly leave in 5-6 years time.
We could've been two years into trade deals already.
We could've been two years into trade deals already.
Cock a hoop, thanks.
Here to please.
Everyone seems twisting the results to try and prove their side (remain or leave) won. what's pretty clear is the country like it or not is as split as ever.
If we did have a second referendum which many people want I think the result would likely be as close if not closer then last time, and the country would still be a split mess. Even if remain came through and won its likely give rise to parties like the Brexit party and other right wing parties gathering support in general elections.
For me the only way forward is to actually find a compromise in parliament and deliver a Soft Brexit. No neither side would be 100% happy but it is the best compromise.
If we did have a second referendum which many people want I think the result would likely be as close if not closer then last time, and the country would still be a split mess. Even if remain came through and won its likely give rise to parties like the Brexit party and other right wing parties gathering support in general elections.
For me the only way forward is to actually find a compromise in parliament and deliver a Soft Brexit. No neither side would be 100% happy but it is the best compromise.
Take it out of the 39billion pounds you seem happy to hand over for the pleasure of leaving the EU with a no deal.
*whistles way out of thread*
Yours in this thread are ok.
I laughed at your death post btw, I was thinking the same thing.
One thing we can conclude from Brexit, Trump et al is a complete lack of faith in government. With people shifting far right, or far left, depending on where their starting point was. So you're probably dead right about that government scrapping referendum result.
Seems to me that everything we're seeing is a result of this big wave of populous nonsense, polluting social media. Whether that be about vaccines, flat earth, or politics. People want to believe simple lies, rather than complex truths.
Reading through details on this, if we leave without a deal no one seems to have a clue whether we would have to pay the 'divorce bill', what seems to be most likely is, EU would argue we are obliged, may take us to international court, but even if they won that its complicated as too who would in-force UK to pay it.
It would likely tarnish the uk's international reputation though when search for new trade deals, but those have also argued such a lot of money could be good bargaining tool when future relations with EU are disgusted.
For the record I think if you have committed to pay money towards something, which the Uk has untill 2020 under the 2013 medium term budget agreement, then you should fulfil your commitments. I'm simply pointing out that if we did leave without a deal, the situation of if and how much the Uk would have to pay becomes as much of a mess as every other part of this messed up situation.
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I am a leaver yes but didn't vote in this election because I feel I shouldn't be voting on something I don't believe in.
I don't really take to Nigel Farage much, apart from agreeing with him on the single issue of Brexit.
Again, a bit of a misconception on the remain side of things. It is uncertain what we have to actually pay. The 39 million was a figure from the withdrawal deal, which is certain not to pass.
There is no compromise in parliament, and "soft brexit" has morphed from being a straightforward leaving the EU but staying in the single market in 2016, to "anything but crashing out" now.
Yeah, I'd assume they'd both be better at modelling Parliament elections though? Turnout was always going to be a complicating factor for Labour's vote in the EU ones.
I assume you've come across Panelbase before? I know they're a BPC member, but I only became aware of them about 2 weeks ago and yet they seem to have had a Twitter account for near enough 10 years.
Are they new to political polling?
Which is the problem, you have around 50% of the country wanting 1 thing and 50% wanting another. what a responsible parliament would do is find a compromise, not just go we have to go 100% one way or the other.
Take away politics and everything else thats how responsible adults should act, never mind people in charge of running a country.
I agree with this. The worst thing you can do to your citizens, as a government, is to give them hope of a political outcome and then completely shatter it by telling them it was all a lie and that there is actually no choice. This is how riots and revolutions start.
That's the wiki article about polling since GE 2017.
Labour are looking good right now - but Tories were in front for 26 months?
And the Tories big slip coincides with the Brexit Parties big drop.
A leave PM (Johnson/Raab) could decimate the Brexit party support and Labour could well be 10 points behind the Tories again soon.
On the other hand, a Leave PM could break the Tory party into two.
I don't think many people will openly admit to liking Farage despite actually doing so. But he does represent the Far Right and therefore anyone supporting him, supports the Far Right.
The issue is simple, there is a 50/50 divide in this country on what the future of the country should be. No matter what happens you're going to upset and piss off millions of people. There is no simple fix to this problem, which is why Referendums are a bunch of shite.
Without wanting to go down the same path again, people have already been told its a lie. The £350 million for the NHS, the easiest trade deal in history, not having to pay to leave etc. All now proven as completeness nonsense.
Anyway, we have a 50,000 post thread dedicated to Brexit. This boring shite should be discussed in there rather than in here.
I think referendums work for making a decision on concrete changes to explicit pieces of legislation. For example, the recent referenda in Ireland re gay marriage and abortion. Having a referendum on such a complex and nebulous thing as whether/how to leave the EU was absolute fecking madness. Especially with only 50% of votes needed to win the damn thing. A decision to change the status quo in this instance should have required a two thirds majority IMO.
Aren't the majority of Brexit voters on the older side? Now that's a riot I'd love to see
Aren't the majority of Brexit voters on the older side? Now that's a riot I'd love to see
Be like that Foo Fighters video.
Yes, because that's the far easier option. No need to think, no need to learn, no need to consider.
It's again clear. The only way out of this mess is Scottish independence.
And nobody complicit is asking where the public's anger & impatience truly comes from. It wouldn't suit the narrative that this is all about the EU.
Exactly, which is why politicians and the public from both sides need to start getting a bit more realistic, and start accepting their needs to be a compromise.
Maybe that isn't possible in the world right now, where it seems you have to aways pick a side and their is no gray area in-between. But at least politicians who want to be in charge of a country should be able to see if we ever want to move forward then they have to act like adults and find a compromise.
Cos at the moment I see this going to ways:
- We end up crashing out or Europe without a deal, which has a massive effect of the economy, leave us in court for years about paying the divorce bill souring our relationships on the world stage.
- we and up remaining, it gives a massive rise to far right extremists, who start to gain a real foot hold in our parliament, and causes massive civil unrest.
It's just really hard to model turnout these days it seems, they must feel it's like flipping a coin.
Panelbase have been doing GE stuff since at least the 2015 election, I don't think they get commissioned by the big papers though so possibly don't get publicised much or do that many, they're just one of those ones that turn up on the aggregators.
This is inevitable, with or without Brexit.