Not sure how this is the case.
Just looking at the league, we got 74 points last season with a xPTS of ~66, so results were far better than the performances and we were still miles off winning the league title. If we increase our points total and performance level such that our points total reflects the quality of the performances, then we have improved. However we were so far off last season that slight or decent improvement on last season won't be enough, 80 points won't win you the league this season for example. With the signings of Varane, Sancho and Ronaldo, anything but an improvement in the points total and the performance metrics would be a complete disaster. The issue is Liverpool/Chelsea may improve more than we do in which case we could potentially go from 2nd to 3rd/4th despite being a better team than lasts season. From what I've seen so far, I don't see us winning the league as the performance levels just aren't high enough - we've been outplayed by Southampton, Wolves and Villa already.
On the Champions league, we're sweating getting out the group stages again. After seeing us bottle the group last season and then our disastrous start against Young Boys, I'm not sure how we could be giving ourselves a high chance of winning the trophy.
We're already out the League cup. That leaves the FA cup as our most likely chance at a trophy. Again a cup competition a bit of a lottery depending on luck of the draw etc.
If we win the Europa because we failed to get out the CL group stage that's an absolute disaster and frankly we'd be celebrating failure if we saw it as an achievement.