Indeed... As bad as may has been as a leader I can't help but think leadsom would have been even worse... Meh perhaps we will find out I'm sure she will throw her hat in the ring again
Westminster Politics
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Her quitting is an attempt to catalyse May’s exit and give herself a crack at the iron throne.
Oh yeah, it can be quite short term, sometimes just until the election spotlight comes round.
True... But there is probably 10 people think they have a chance at the moment (though if mogg or Johnson get to the final 2 I think the membership would overwhelmingly back them... But to get to that final two is going to be pure backstabbing and deal making... Yeah very game of thrones... Personally I'd never place a bet on anybody to be more slippery and slimey than gove so I think he has a real chance
I’d put a cheeky bet on Gove. Despite all they say, nobody wants this poisoned chalice until the decision is finalised. The one that takes responsibility for it won’t have much of a career left at the end of it.
Gove is wet enough to be the puppet. Steer him towards the worst outcome and then hang him out to dry when it’s done.
I'd say him and Hunt are both alike in that regard. They've both spent years being ridiculed and being viewed as incompetent embarrassments but they've also both persistently survived, playing key roles in the Cameron and May administrations, which is something that can't be said for most. Hunt particularly despite spending years being chastised for his stint in health somehow has managed to blag his way upwards and is very much trying to reform himself as a statesman who's both moderate and yet understands and is in tune with the desires of the Brexiteers.
Is this the place for the conservative leadership election guff?
anyway
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader
Boris clear favourite
Raab
Gove
basically if Johnson can get to the final two it looks very likley the membership will vote for him... the real game of thrones shit is now in the background can Raab / Gove / anybody else get enough MPS between then to keep Johnson out of the final two?
I find it hard to believe anybody is a more duplicitous smiley psudo reptiliian prepared to promice anything to get in power than Gove so i have a sneeking suspicion he may be in with a decent shout at 11/1 ... also mogg available at 100 to one which although I think hes unlikley the odds of 100 to one are very generous
anyway
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader
Boris clear favourite
Raab
Gove
basically if Johnson can get to the final two it looks very likley the membership will vote for him... the real game of thrones shit is now in the background can Raab / Gove / anybody else get enough MPS between then to keep Johnson out of the final two?
I find it hard to believe anybody is a more duplicitous smiley psudo reptiliian prepared to promice anything to get in power than Gove so i have a sneeking suspicion he may be in with a decent shout at 11/1 ... also mogg available at 100 to one which although I think hes unlikley the odds of 100 to one are very generous
I just can’t see Johnson winning for some reason. He’s destined to be one of those hypotheticals in British politics. I’d put my money on a Hunt/Gove ticket.
In breaking news, Mark Francois has just put forward Steve Baker!
In breaking news, Mark Francois has just put forward Steve Baker!
Prime Minister Theresa May resigns
I think we will see a big field something like 10 people... say
Johnson
Raab
Gove
Hunt
Ledsom
Liddington
Stewart
Baker
Brady
Javid
Im sure people like Rudd, Cleverly, Davies, Mordaunt are all testing the water as well but will probably struggle to get enough support to look anything other than foolosh... I suspect Mogg will try to play the role of kingmaker in exchange for chancellor or brexit minister role
I suspect that after the first round voting it will be clear a number have no chance and I guess we will see something like
Johnson - banging the brexit drum
Raab - basically saying the same as boris but using the fact he is not boris as his main argument
Gove - being a smiley reptilian and promising MPs anything to get their votes
Hunt - the candidate for the more moderate conservative ,MPs
Leadsom - will bang the brexit brum, leader of the house, experienced female polititian etc - and has some supporters in place from last time
Liddington - will retain a core of may loyalists
Hunt will be mauled over having voted remain, liddinton will be mauled over being associated with May and ledsom has missed her chance so all will probably drop out pretty quick
Leaving Johnson, Raab and Gove
It really will depend how big the anybody but johnson vote is and if Raab or Gove can get mogg onside but if johnson makes it to the final two the other one will probably be better off agreeing not to run and taking a cushy post
Basically I think the only real chance of stopping Johnson is conservative MP's being worried that the membership is actually crazy enough to vote for him to be PM
any of those 3 win and its probably a hard brexit and a snap election I think
Gove or Raab will get it, maybe Leadsom.
They will be manipulated towards a no deal, take all the blame and Boris will take over the reins as the hero the country neither needs nor wants.
They will be manipulated towards a no deal, take all the blame and Boris will take over the reins as the hero the country neither needs nor wants.
Haven't a number of Tories said they'll quite the party if Johnson gets in?
They've been rowing back on that massively.
Any chance Rory Stewart gets the job? He wrote a couple of books that I really enjoyed, seemed like a sensible, decent sort of guy in them, and he has quite a few interesting life experiences behind him for a youngish dude. No idea what his politics might be though.
Say goodbye to the NHS if Hunt gets in.
He's a remainer so there's little chance of it in my opinion. I wouldn't be shocked if it ended up a lesser name like Brady though.
Feck it, should we start a poll? Best, most functional country to live so we can all fecking move there?
I believe I’m right that it works with the party/ MPs voting people off, one by one, until we’re down to two candidates that the members would vote for. At that stage, the assumption is that the (older, more Brexity members) would choose Boris over any other candidate. Is that not the worst type of scenario for a Boris?
My thinking is that if it was a straight all-in vote, he would definitely have a strong chance to finish in the final two. But if we’re ultimately at a place where the MPs are choosing two out of three candidates, that’s the easiest type of contest in which a significant portion can work together to push one option into third?
I’m assuming that it will be wittled down to Raab, Boris and one of Hunt/ Javid. At that point, the true leave vote is split, and the soft/remain/Cameroon/anti-Boris Brexiteer MPs could work together to keep him out, no?
The only issue is that this line of thought gives us Dominic Raab as PM. Feck me...
My thinking is that if it was a straight all-in vote, he would definitely have a strong chance to finish in the final two. But if we’re ultimately at a place where the MPs are choosing two out of three candidates, that’s the easiest type of contest in which a significant portion can work together to push one option into third?
I’m assuming that it will be wittled down to Raab, Boris and one of Hunt/ Javid. At that point, the true leave vote is split, and the soft/remain/Cameroon/anti-Boris Brexiteer MPs could work together to keep him out, no?
The only issue is that this line of thought gives us Dominic Raab as PM. Feck me...
Just look at the bunch putting their names in. It's a fecking horror show.
I'd rather eat my own shit for the next two weeks
fixed.
We’re in the endgame now...
Farage wants to introduce private healthcare like the U.S and phase out the free NHS.
Sadly true, I just know that he co wrote a book about privatisation of the NHS and how it would be best achieved. To be honest though they’re all pigs with their snouts in the same trough.
Priti Patel implying she's in too, whic would be hilarious if it wasn't both ridiculous and scary.
I don't honestly see this. The Tories would be mad to try - the sane ones know it - and whoever gets in is going to be doing nothing but Brexit for the next 10 years anyway.
Very strong chance of making the final two for me. Whilst the ERG mob get the headlines it's actually likely that nearly half the Tory MPs are Remainers, and I think they will coalesce on Stewart whilst the Brexiters knife fight it out for the other spot. Then the party members will decide between the last two and Stewart will come a distant second unfortunately. If anyone sees a betting company offering odds on the last two let me know!
Think I see that role as more likely to be taken by Javid (though the ending remains the same). Mordaunt would be my outside bet.
I might be underestimating Javid I suppose, I daresay he has a much bigger profile in the South than up here in Lancashire. As you say it's hard to see a Brexiter not getting the membership vote though.
Most likely to have a role as an imperial fleet underling in a Star Wars film of all the runners, imo.